Corona Virus main thread

[ricardo 7,395]

[Herman 9,765]

I'm off to Scotland next week. 😲

[Herman 9,765]

One for KG.

 

[ricardo 7,395]

National

35,847 - 149

rate of Increase 12.1% (7 days)  slight decrease from yesterday

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     355.9    down 1.4% on the week

(16 patients in N&N  ( updated to 17th Aug))

Vax 1st Dose      55,410                87.9% done                 Norwich numbers   76.6% 2nd Dose     130,676              77.4% done                                                       64.1% In Hospital  (fairly static) 24-08-2021                      6,874 23-08-2021 6,955 22-08-2021 6,689 21-08-2021 6,481 20-08-2021 6,475 19-08-2021 6,468 18-08-2021 6,429

[ricardo 7,395]

Little movement in England

[CANARYKING 638]

Is it just me or are we beginning to lose control of this, when should crowds returning kick in on the numbers ?

[Capt. Pants 4,234]

Scotland seeing huge increase in infections since kids have returned to school.

Think we'll see govt policy on vaccination passports for football stadiums brought to life in England sooner rather than later.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

On 24/08/2021 at 17:14, Herman said:

One for KG.

 

Yes. Having to use the military for transport to hospital as all the Crappy Hampers climb cliffs, swim out to sea, drive fast around goat tracks and ignore any real protocols.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

15 hours ago, CANARYKING said:

Is it just me or are we beginning to lose control of this, when should crowds returning kick in on the numbers ?

Numbers continue to be flat in England.   The increase in Scotland has followed them going back to school, so may give a guide to what will happen next in England, I'll be keeping a close eye on their numbers.

[ricardo 7,395]

National

38,281 - 140

rate of Increase 11.1% (7 days) second day of rate decline

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     362.9    down 4.6% on the week

(25 patients in N&N   up from 16               ( updated to 24th Aug))

Vax 1st Dose      68,076                88.1% done                 Norwich numbers   76.7% 2nd Dose     161,705              77.7% done                                                       64.9%   In Hospital 25-08-2021                                  6,906 24-08-2021 6,899 23-08-2021 6,967 22-08-2021 6,699 21-08-2021 6,487 20-08-2021 6,480 19-08-2021 6,473

[ricardo 7,395]

A huge rise in Scotland today.

[Van wink 2,994]

6 minutes ago, ricardo said:

A huge rise in Scotland today.

Schools back for Covid

[Well b back 3,207]

That’s an interesting take on it, Scotland’s figures were really low and are now going up sharply, whereas England’s were really high and still going up. The latest ONS data shows England 1 in 70 up from 1 in 80 and Scotland 1 in 140 up from 1 in 150.

My experience from this week makes it look like many people no longer bother if they are positive. In one day 3 people approached us who were out shopping asking if we did tests as they were positive the day before on a lateral flow. 

[Van wink 2,994]

41 minutes ago, Well b back said:

That’s an interesting take on it, Scotland’s figures were really low and are now going up sharply, whereas England’s were really high and still going up. The latest ONS data shows England 1 in 70 up from 1 in 80 and Scotland 1 in 140 up from 1 in 150.

My experience from this week makes it look like many people no longer bother if they are positive. In one day 3 people approached us who were out shopping asking if we did tests as they were positive the day before on a lateral flow. 

Its the sudden sharp rise in positives that seem to be causing the concern, more recent than ONS data released today I believe. 

[Well b back 3,207]

12 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Its the sudden sharp rise in positives that seem to be causing the concern, more recent than ONS data released today I believe. 

Yet the rises in England were not talked about it was the U.K. then.

My guess would be 20% of people that catch it now just don’t even bother having a test, and a large % of those vaccinated believe they can’t catch it let alone spread it so when they get COVID now they just assume it’s a cold, just yesterday I had someone call me a f****** idiot for telling him to get a COVID test ( he had a sore throat and had lost his taste ) as he had had 2 jabs so I was talking s***.

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

If the Government calls 1000 death /week as acceptable who are we to complain.

OMG I'm dying.........eventually

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Yet the rises in England were not talked about it was the U.K. then.

My guess would be 20% of people that catch it now just don’t even bother having a test, and a large % of those vaccinated believe they can’t catch it let alone spread it so when they get COVID now they just assume it’s a cold, just yesterday I had someone call me a f****** idiot for telling him to get a COVID test ( he had a sore throat and had lost his taste ) as he had had 2 jabs so I was talking s***.

Your first para may well be right, I don’t know if England saw such a rapid rise in such a short time but it may well have done.

The complacency of the vaccinated is a real worry with recent data showing the fall off in effectiveness.

[ricardo 7,395]

National

38,046 - 100

rate of Increase 9.1% (7 days) third day of rate decline

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     352.4    down 6.9% on the week

(25 patients in N&N   up from 16               ( updated to 24th Aug))

Vax

1st Dose      55,140                88.2% done                 Norwich numbers   76.7%

2nd Dose     144,936             78% done                                                     65.4%

In Hospital

26-08-2021	6,942
25-08-2021	6,920
24-08-2021	6,908
23-08-2021	6,973
22-08-2021	6,704
21-08-2021	6,491
20-08-2021	6,484

[ricardo 7,395]

[ricardo 7,395]

Most England data still pretty flat

[Van wink 2,994]

7 minutes ago, ricardo said:

 

9 minutes ago, ricardo said:

 

Thanks, clearly nothing in the England data since 15 July as dramatic as we have seen in Scotland over the last few days, maybe there is  English data pre 15 July that reflects WBB's thoughts.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

6 hours ago, Van wink said:

Thanks, clearly nothing in the England data since 15 July as dramatic as we have seen in Scotland over the last few days, maybe there is  English data pre 15 July that reflects WBB's thoughts.

it's so blatantly schools giving it the extra shunt really isn't it... they're the only places with big unvaccinated gatherings left apart from antivaxx rallies. Question is whether those outbreaks will stay largely confined to school environments or whether they spill over to more vulnerable groups significantly.

Surely by christmas most teenagers will have been exposed to the virus so there'll be some good immunity to take into winter?

It's not going away any time soon or potentially ever so best we can hope for now is that the immunity gained from various vaccination/infections develops incredibly strongly over time meaning SARS-COV-2 will eventually drift into the background as another relatively harmless coronavirus that we're all well versed at fighting off before it properly takes a hold no matter what variant is thrown at us. A completely new strain and yes it would be a huge setback but the vaccines are still holding up really strong against serious cases. We just can't get them out quick enough worldwide.

[Well b back 3,207]

48 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

it's so blatantly schools giving it the extra shunt really isn't it... they're the only places with big unvaccinated gatherings left apart from antivaxx rallies. Question is whether those outbreaks will stay largely confined to school environments or whether they spill over to more vulnerable groups significantly.

Surely by christmas most teenagers will have been exposed to the virus so there'll be some good immunity to take into winter?

It's not going away any time soon or potentially ever so best we can hope for now is that the immunity gained from various vaccination/infections develops incredibly strongly over time meaning SARS-COV-2 will eventually drift into the background as another relatively harmless coronavirus that we're all well versed at fighting off before it properly takes a hold no matter what variant is thrown at us. A completely new strain and yes it would be a huge setback but the vaccines are still holding up really strong against serious cases. We just can't get them out quick enough worldwide.

Spot on TJ, I really don’t get this England is better than others based on others being worse when we will have the same problem in the next 3 - 6 weeks, although I appreciate we may not as this virus is so unpredictable.

It looks like mass vaccinations will take place in schools, which is good news, and will see us catching up the likes of Spain and France. 
There needs to be a huge campaign aimed at the vaccinated to confirm that you can still catch it and if you do you have the same viral load as somebody unvaccinated. A % of the vaccinated believe they can’t catch it and their COVID symptoms are only a cold. 
It does seem from recent studies that best immunity is 2 jabs and catching it, but do you really want to put that to the test. As you say the vaccines are holding up well against hospitalisation, so there is an excellent prospect things will get much better. The only thing that concerns me at the moment is 100 - 150 deaths a day in July when respiratory diseases normally go away. That equates to a minimum of 36,500 deaths a year assuming the winter remains constant. It is strange to think 20,000 plus deaths were unacceptable and yet 36,500 now is. I suspect however by next year this time we will have a treatment that will be reducing the effects dramatically, and I do think at that point it will become as you say a ‘ harmless coronavirus ‘. 

[Van wink 2,994]

Schools would seem to be a big factor TJ, I don’t see anything here as England is best WBB, but certainly if we see a dramatic change in numbers in any region it’s worth noting and trying to understand.

I was and probably still am feeling reasonably relaxed about things atm, taking personal precautions etc, but the level of community infection is still massive, uncomfortably so as we move towards the autumn. With delta being so infectious it may well be that there is little room for any variants, gaining a competitive advantage would take some doing, but only time will tell.

My best advice would we to get a booster jab as soon as you are able and equally, if not more importantly, get the flu jab, the winter headlines could end up being more about flu than Covid.

[Well b back 3,207]

A little bit here about delta / alpha and hospitals, delta appears to be a lot more likely to put you in hospital if you have not had both jabs. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58354342

 

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

4 hours ago, Van wink said:

Schools would seem to be a big factor TJ, I don’t see anything here as England is best WBB, but certainly if we see a dramatic change in numbers in any region it’s worth noting and trying to understand.

I was and probably still am feeling reasonably relaxed about things atm, taking personal precautions etc, but the level of community infection is still massive, uncomfortably so as we move towards the autumn. With delta being so infectious it may well be that there is little room for any variants, gaining a competitive advantage would take some doing, but only time will tell.

My best advice would we to get a booster jab as soon as you are able and equally, if not more importantly, get the flu jab, the winter headlines could end up being more about flu than Covid.

My comment made a few months ago is that any new variant doesn't need to compete or be as infectious as Delta - all it needs to do is to bypass the vaccine. Lots of fresh pastures then.

That's the real trouble (beyond any Delta breakthrough this autumn as seems likely simply by sheer weight of numbers) - and the reason why the government red listed France a few months ago in panic - Beta threatens and shows a stronger vaccine resistance even if not as infectious as Delta. 

[Upo 91]

12 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

it's so blatantly schools giving it the extra shunt really isn't it... they're the only places with big unvaccinated gatherings left apart from antivaxx rallies. Question is whether those outbreaks will stay largely confined to school environments or whether they spill over to more vulnerable groups significantly.

Surely by christmas most teenagers will have been exposed to the virus so there'll be some good immunity to take into winter?

It's not going away any time soon or potentially ever so best we can hope for now is that the immunity gained from various vaccination/infections develops incredibly strongly over time meaning SARS-COV-2 will eventually drift into the background as another relatively harmless coronavirus that we're all well versed at fighting off before it properly takes a hold no matter what variant is thrown at us. A completely new strain and yes it would be a huge setback but the vaccines are still holding up really strong against serious cases. We just can't get them out quick enough worldwide.

Unfortunately the writing is on the wall. Data over past couple of months crushes any hope of vaccine/infenction derived herd immunity. Worse still, vaccine efficacy vs severe delta infection is no longer good.

Frontrunner Israel:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delta

Here's preprint of the study:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.29.21261317v1.full.pdf

In short:

Vaccine efficacy falls over time vs delta. Fall was expected, but magnitude was not. Protection from hospitalization is no longer sufficient to prevent flooding of hospitals by vaccinated people. "Breakthrough infections" are now the rule, not the exception. We should not call them breakthrough infections anymore. Just infections.

Booster shots are not an optional policy. They are necessary. We're already moving towards 3rds shots. We'll see their efficacy in Israel first. Almost certainly they will only buy us time to come up with better vaccines or other policy measures to prevent infections and more dangerous variants from developing.

[Van wink 2,994]

33 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

My comment made a few months ago is that any new variant doesn't need to compete or be as infectious as Delta - all it needs to do is to bypass the vaccine. Lots of fresh pastures then.

That's the real trouble (beyond any Delta breakthrough this autumn as seems likely simply by sheer weight of numbers) - and the reason why the government red listed France a few months ago in panic - Beta threatens and shows a stronger vaccine resistance even if not as infectious as Delta. 

Interesting point, the likelihood of total vaccine evasion I suspect is fairly low but certainly further reduced effectiveness is very possible IMO. It would probably have to outcompete Delta in terms of being highly infectious, if that one comes along then we are in some difficulty.

[Upo 91]

3 hours ago, Well b back said:

A little bit here about delta / alpha and hospitals, delta appears to be a lot more likely to put you in hospital if you have not had both jabs. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58354342

 

That would explain this:

 

 

[Upo 91]

2 hours ago, Van wink said:

Interesting point, the likelihood of total vaccine evasion I suspect is fairly low but certainly further reduced effectiveness is very possible IMO. It would probably have to outcompete Delta in terms of being highly infectious, if that one comes along then we are in some difficulty.

Complete immunity evasion is extremely unlikely. However, selection pressure promotes viral evolution towards higher immunity resistance and/or higher infectivity and development of variants with higher viral "fitness" is certainty in presence of infections. Studies show that Sars-CoV-2 is consistently evolving towards higher viral fitness.

Long term infectivity is a much bigger problem for mankind than virulence or immunity evasion. In principle, more infectious virus gets more chances to develop resistance against immunity than an immune-evasive virus gets to develop higher infectivity. In Sars-cov-2's case, reproduction number seems to correlate with virulence. Delta is atleast twice as infectious and probably about twice as deadly as the original variant.

At the bottom is a chart from April 2020. Delta R0 estimates currently round up to ca. 6. Waves of infections have been caused by orig./wild type, Alpha (B117)+Gamma (P1) and Delta respectively. Others are noise. This suggests doubling of infectivity every two generations, with 3 to 6 months between emergence of new dominant VOCs.

The recurring "waves" separated by similar times are consequence of viral characteristics and societal response. Each variant is consequence of this interaction due to its impact on selection pressure and volume of infections. Societies respond to new variants by increasing mitigating measures to match R0 of a strain, but generally do not overshoot, preferring to control and mitigate. This leads to sustained spread of infections and chances for viral evolution.

Peak of evolution probably occurs when cases are the highest, but selection pressure only truly starts to weed out the weaker variants under lockdowns and emergence of immunity in population (infections+vaccines). Once infections go down, restrictions are eased and the newly emerged variant begins to spread exponentially. Initial level of infections is low and viral spread is lost in background noise for a while. Once alarms go off that something new has developed, sequencing takes time, and confirmation of a new variant of concern (VOC) requires epidemiological observation for a period of time.

It seems that this "dance" takes about 3 to 6 months. The picture is muddled by variants developing in different geographic locations. Regardless, waves seem to propagate from region of origin to everywhere within a few months of its identification as a new VOC.

We thought that vaccines would short-circuit this interaction, but evidence is quite clear that the opposite is happening: Pre-existing infection derived immunity had already trained the virus to increase its fitness. The fact that delta developed under very little interaction against vaccines is evidence that herd immunity is unachievable. Delta hasn't succeeded in escaping immunity, which is why vaccines protect against severe disease. Instead, Delta has escaped herd immunity. This is critical, because infections drive viral evolution. Countermeasures let only the fittest survive.

My guess is that effective but incomplete mitigating measures drive viral infectiousness and population immunity drives immunity evasion. If we are lucky, virulence is a side effect of infectiousness. If we are unlucky, virulence is an important mechanism for infectiousness. I think the answer is a mix of both, leaning towards side effect. The fatality rate is too low. Unfortunately it is moving in the wrong direction, so it probably drives infectiousness too. It is notable that every strain has been more dangerous than the previous one.

Essentially mankind is the best P.T. a virus like sars-cov-2 could have: Always at the edge of suppressing the pandemic but never achieving it.

A doubling from current R0 6+ would create a variant competing with Measles as the most infectious disease we know. It is uncertain if there is any upper limit to potential infectiousness of sars-cov-2. I think it is plausible this will evolve into the most infectious disease mankind has ever faced. I'm on the fence whether it theoretically could evolve into the most infectious disease in the 4 billion year history of life.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-will-it-be-over-an-introduction-to-viral-reproduction-numbers-r0-and-re/

 

Below is a chart 

Edited August 28, 2021 by Upo