The Positive Brexit Thread

[horsefly 4,339]

19 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Let me be clear, (and I am conscious that there is a wider audience here) I would never make "allegations of mental illness".  A person's health is not something about which an allegation can be made. There is nothing in any way wrong or shameful in a person suffering from ill health of any type as the use of a term such as "allegation" might imply. If you have drawn such an inference then I am sorry that I was not clearer in explaining why I was no longer engaging with you, despite the flurry of abuse coming my way.

That is EXACTLY what you did. You clearly made an abusive post, then deleted it. However, you couldn't resist making an abusive conjecture about my mental health when giving a reason for your deletion. Utterly despicable!

You spend most of your time sanctimoniously telling others to use their language responsibly, so try taking your own advice instead of continuing with your hypocritical deflections, and take responsibility for your own abusive behaviour.

[sonyc 5,542]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

It's got to work two ways. You stay out of my way and I will stay out of yours. That way we can both be sure that we have not crossed lines set by the other.

Let me be clear, (and I am conscious that there is a wider audience here) I would never make "allegations of mental illness".  A person's health is not something about which an allegation can be made. There is nothing in any way wrong or shameful in a person suffering from ill health of any type as the use of a term such as "allegation" might imply. If you have drawn such an inference then I am sorry that I was not clearer in explaining why I was no longer engaging with you, despite the flurry of abuse coming my way.

I can see that this episode has caused you not insubstantial upset. Whilst it was my intention to comment on your behaviour on here it was not my intention on here to belittle anyone's suffering, whether or not that applies to you; A person's health, physical or mental, is not 'fair game', even on these pages. I apologise to you if you believed that I was attempting to belittle you, or anyone else.

I have heard your point and you have heard loud and clear my views on your 'choice of language' and 'combative' nature in many posts.  

I am sorry that this is not being said in private but are we agreed?

I guess your username is apt BB and rather than the Bluebeard moniker you have a propensity to make barbs. Take the e off Barbe and add an e to Bleu. You are, in my view anyway, someone who thinks broadly and deeply on many subjects but you can (again my take) patronise people in your responses. Possibly, because you feel intellectually superior (which you probably are in comparison with me - that's me being modest) but it isn't always a good thing to project. 

H for me often makes very articulate and impassioned posts about all kinds of matters because they matter to him (assuming here he is a  bloke). There's always a truth that lies between posters and yet actually, it really doesn't matter who is right (or wrong). 

I hope you both continue to post and respond because differences often widen any discourse. That's never a bad thing. I'm not trying to be a peacemaker (though I'm prone to attempting - often failing - to do that). Life is FAR too short.

[Barbe bleu 838]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

I guess your username is apt BB and rather than the Bluebeard moniker you have a propensity to make barbs. Take the e off Barbe and add an e to Bleu. You are, in my view anyway, someone who thinks broadly and deeply on many subjects but you can (again my take) patronise people in your responses. Possibly, because you feel intellectually superior (which you probably are in comparison with me - that's me being modest) but it isn't always a good thing to project. 

H for me often makes very articulate and impassioned posts about all kinds of matters because they matter to him (assuming here he is a  bloke). There's always a truth that lies between posters and yet actually, it really doesn't matter who is right (or wrong). 

I hope you both continue to post and respond because differences often widen any discourse. That's never a bad thing. I'm not trying to be a peacemaker (though I'm prone to attempting - often failing - to do that). Life is FAR too short.

Thank you for taking the time to respond.

I'm not going to talk about the other person, as you say life this too short and life can be complicated but I will say something in more general terms.

Yes, I can be patronising - sometimes deliberately so. It's not out of any sense of intellectual superiority, its out of frustration. Let me explain...

People come on here for any number of reasons.  I get that some people come on here because they like to hear people agree with them, that's human nature, as is the need to disagree loudly with people that don't.  For others though they come here for a discussion, they like to hear other points of view and to broaden themselves, or to throw something else into the mix.   Neither of these things is inherently better than the other and both can exist, so long as there is some form of mutual respect.   Its perfectly possible to hear the other side of a discussion, argue strongly against it and for everyone to come out of that conversation thinking they have got what they want out of it.

That falls down when basic respect is lost.  I saw that with you just a few days ago. I thought it was completely unnecessary for you to be called boring  they may well have thought that (i dont btw but that could have been kept to themselves.   I also see it everyday with LYB- why he persists is beyond me. And I've seen it with many posters who come and give a view contrary to the prevailing one and then disappear as its not worth the effort. 

You saw right  i can be barbed, but is that so much worse than the litany of abuse we see dished out? Maybe so, maybe not, I'll reflect on that.  Is being barbed though out of character for this place? You'd have to do some convincing for me to think it is.

At its best this side of the pinkun is wonderful,  there is a massive amount of effort that goes into some posts and I have seen better discussion on here than on any news item- exceeding sometimes that in the professional press, i want to continue to be part of that but I don't need to be called things like a 'moron', a 'pompous virtue signaller' , 'ignorant' , a 'sanctimonious prig' or a 'tedious virtue signalling hypocrite' simply because I dared voice the opinion like, for instance, that our town planning and housing system with fundamentally sound as a framework for decision  making but needed tweaking and properly resourcing properly to provide the right housing in the right place at the right time. (Appreciate that this is close to straying into territory I am unwilling to tread but it illustrates a point I believe)

 

 

 

[sonyc 5,542]

29 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Neither of these things is inherently better than the other and both can exist, so long as there is some form of mutual respect.   Its perfectly possible to hear the other side of a discussion, argue strongly against it and for everyone to come out of that conversation thinking they have got what they want out of it.

That falls down when basic respect is lost.  I saw that with you just a few days ago. I thought it was completely unnecessary for you to be called boring  they may well have thought that (i dont btw but that could have been kept to themselves.   I also see it everyday with LYB- why he persists is beyond me. And I've seen it with many posters who come and give a view contrary to the prevailing one and then disappear as its not worth the effort. 

You saw right  i can be barbed, but is that so much worse than the litany of abuse we see dished out? Maybe so, maybe not, I'll reflect on that.  Is being barbed though out of character for this place? You'd have to do some convincing for me to think it is.

At its best this side of the pinkun is wonderful,  there is a massive amount of effort that goes into some posts

Respect is a difficult concept I think but a very important one. I often use the word 'curious' which implies an openness (and I think it derives from a Latin stem meaning 'care'). If you are called a name I guess too that one has had an impact. The opposite of that would indeed be boring. My understanding of the poster's use of that word was that as a poster I'm benign, not an antagonist. It was just not taken as an insult. In fact I was quietly amused. And I know the kind of poster he is and like him. In fact I am boring (at times) and I stopped posting because I had the sense I was boring myself. I couldn't be bothered with arguing or winning any point.  It was great not to have to feel like you had to contribute. But then, it's also nice to be amongst a community.

Winnacott has a lovely phrase "It's a joy to be hidden but a disaster not to be found". Very insightful. Could be a life metaphor.

The best quote and virtually a guide through life for me belongs to Voltaire "by appreciation, we make the excellence of others out own property".  As soon as the second arrives that you appreciate something (could be in nature or football and certainly another person) then you gain so much! It's rather selfish really but that mere act brings joy - contentment anyway. I tried to answer @dylanisabaddog a few months back about a spiritual and a religious question. He laughed by saying "nice try" to my attempt at stating I wasn't religious but there was a wonder in things. And I enjoyed his comment too. Anyway, this is a long way round trying to say that appreciating anything works just great!  Maybe that sounds too soft and sentimental. It isn't but it gets closer to your point about respect - I think.

Barbs are fine. There are times when you might expect a comeback (I didn't agree with your justification or perhaps a semi justification for the word "sh*thole" used by the home secretary because I just couldn't see any convincing justification for it, by anyone, or in any situation. We may think things but uttering them and in high office?).

Anyway, I'm going on too much.

[dylanisabaddog 5,131]

Jools made a video! 

📸 Watch this video on Facebook

https://fb.watch/oPX7rfwExV /

[A Load of Squit 5,271]

Well this is fun. Germany didn't have to leave the EU or the ECHR to control it's borders.

 

 

[Herman 9,891]

8 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

Well this is fun. Germany didn't have to leave the EU or the ECHR to control it's borders.

 

 

 

[A Load of Squit 5,271]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

 

Blimey, a more stupid reply than the usual 'Germany doesn't play by the rules'. 😀

[Creative Midfielder 2,010]

2 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

Blimey, a more stupid reply than the usual 'Germany doesn't play by the rules'. 😀

😀 Yes, astonishingly stupid - it so tempting to say that you couldn't make this kind of stuff up were it not for the fact that Brexiteers manage to prove that they can on such a ridiculously regular basis 😂🙄

Mind you, I thought the usual Brexitty claim was that the 'French don't play by the rules', but I guess the country can easily change depending upon the particular variety of Brexitty nonsense is being spouted.

Perhaps the reality is that when Brexiteers are spouting nonsense about EU countries, their knowledge generally and especially of geography is so poor they just pluck the name of the first EU country that comes to mind.

After all, they're pretty much the same all these EU countries aren't they and apparently just about to become a part of a single European super-state, so why should us Brits even bother to try and remember the individual countries' name nowadays, never mind whether they've got a coastline or not! 😂😂

[Nik Vawn 165]

On 06/12/2023 at 13:23, ricardo said:

E.U. to delay tariffs on UK made cars until 2027.

Self interest triumphs.

No surprise there.

Hardly a surprise but disappointing for a few no doubt!

[Herman 9,891]

Well done Farage. 3rd place is better than normal.

[sonyc 5,542]

4 hours ago, Herman said:

Well done Farage. 3rd place is better than normal.

 

 

[horsefly 4,339]

So, it seems the great and mighty new market of the CPTPP is going to add 0.04% to GDP in about 15-years time. Thank the Lord we left the Single Market

https://x.com/TobiFrenzen/status/1735512867313516623?s=20

 

[Creative Midfielder 2,010]

23 minutes ago, horsefly said:

So, it seems the great and mighty new market of the CPTPP is going to add 0.04% to GDP in about 15-years time. Thank the Lord we left the Single Market

https://x.com/TobiFrenzen/status/1735512867313516623?s=20

 

Fantastic, unlike the idiot Badenoch I thought the official estimate was that it was only going to add 0.03% to GDP after 15 years so that would be a 33% increase over the original estimate - LYB was clearly correct when he said we were downplaying the significance of CPTPP!      😂🤣  😂🤣

[littleyellowbirdie 2,626]

34 minutes ago, horsefly said:

So, it seems the great and mighty new market of the CPTPP is going to add 0.04% to GDP in about 15-years time. Thank the Lord we left the Single Market

https://x.com/TobiFrenzen/status/1735512867313516623?s=20

 

They're just forecasts. From economists. Who are generally crap at forecasts.

[Yellow Fever 3,864]

1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

They're just forecasts. From economists. Who are generally crap at forecasts.

They are the governments own figures on which any rational government would base policy choices so can't be easily dismissed.

Clearly as was said years ago, joining CPTTP was not for any economic benefit but may have some intangible value for overseas relations or as was more likely at the time trying to spin leaving the SM sound like a good idea for the rump Tory 20%.

[Herman 9,891]

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,626]

10 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

They are the governments own figures on which any rational government would base policy choices so can't be easily dismissed.

Clearly as was said years ago, joining CPTTP was not for any economic benefit but may have some intangible value for overseas relations or as was more likely at the time trying to spin leaving the SM sound like a good idea for the rump Tory 20%.

No they're not the government's figures. They're civil servant's figures. Civil servants who have changed the numbers multiple times for a forecst over more than a decade.

Economists in academia and government are the failures. The successful ones are all in the private sector making fortunes. They're okay at statistics, but they have no imagination whatsoever. They look at everything as static. They have no clue as to how things will change. There'll be thinking people looking at the details finding opportunities. Economists don't have a clue about that side of things.

The proof of the pudding will be in 10 or so years; theses forecasts belong with the ones that said we would be over a cliff edge by now, but we aren't. They're great headlines to comfort people who haven't come to terms with the outcome of the referendum, but that's it.

Edited December 16, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[littleyellowbirdie 2,626]

8 hours ago, Herman said:

 

'No evidence' just means it can't be proved in a court of law; everybody can see from the way things panned out it was politically motivated. The CEO resigned because it was blatantly obvious they were lying. To be fair even Gina Miller raised her own objections about treatment of her political projects on the banking side.

Edited December 16, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[A Load of Squit 5,271]

7 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

'No evidence' just means it can't be proved in a court of law; everybody can see from the way things panned out it was politically motivated. The CEO resigned because it was blatantly obvious they were lying. To be fair even Gina Miller raised her own objections about treatment of her political projects on the banking side.

Thankfully there are dictionary definitions of words otherwise we'd all be as stupid as LYB.

evidence

/ˈɛvɪd(ə)ns/

noun

 

1. the available body of facts or information indicating whether a belief or proposition is true or valid.

[horsefly 4,339]

21 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

They're just forecasts. From economists. Who are generally crap at forecasts.

You're probably right, 0.04% seems far too optimistic. So try these figures that are already established FACT 

https://x.com/PeterFane5/status/1735949250813366768?s=20

Edited December 16, 2023 by horsefly

[horsefly 4,339]

9 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

No they're not the government's figures. They're civil servant's figures. Civil servants who have changed the numbers multiple times for a forecst over more than a decade.

Economists in academia and government are the failures. The successful ones are all in the private sector making fortunes. They're okay at statistics, but they have no imagination whatsoever. They look at everything as static. They have no clue as to how things will change. There'll be thinking people looking at the details finding opportunities. Economists don't have a clue about that side of things.

The proof of the pudding will be in 10 or so years; theses forecasts belong with the ones that said we would be over a cliff edge by now, but we aren't. They're great headlines to comfort people who haven't come to terms with the outcome of the referendum, but that's it.

FACTS from the British Chamber of Commerce:  https://x.com/PeterFane5/status/1735949250813366768?s=20

[Well b back 3,328]

9 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

'No evidence' just means it can't be proved in a court of law; everybody can see from the way things panned out it was politically motivated. The CEO resigned because it was blatantly obvious they were lying. To be fair even Gina Miller raised her own objections about treatment of her political projects on the banking side.

I see Farage ( totally unelected ) is laying the law down to Sunak today about Cameron. The man’s lies destroyed our Country.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,626]

1 hour ago, horsefly said:

FACTS from the British Chamber of Commerce:  https://x.com/PeterFane5/status/1735949250813366768?s=20

"William Bain of the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) says that “after a 3.4% decline in goods exports volumes to the EU in September a ‘further slump’ of 7% occurred in October. Drops in exports to EU of chemicals, manufactured goods and food”.

Focussing exclusively on EU trade isn't meaningful.

How do those who exaggerate the importance of EU membership to UK trade account for the fact that the share of exports of goods and services from the UK to the EU dropped by about 10% over a decade up to 2015 while we were still members, from nearly 54% to down to about 42%. Why has the decline actually slowed down post-Brexit according to these stats?

 

 

Edited December 16, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[horsefly 4,339]

https://x.com/pimlicat/status/1736302758154690901?s=20

https://www.ft.com/content/8dc3115e-6b95-47db-b188-d43a6528110e

Edited December 17, 2023 by horsefly

[Well b back 3,328]

On 15/12/2023 at 12:56, littleyellowbirdie said:

They're just forecasts. From economists. Who are generally crap at forecasts.

That’s similar to the way our politics of misinformation work. When they are wrong in the favour of your argument they are crap at predicting, when they are wrong against the result which you want to hear, either nothing is mentioned or ‘ why would you want to believe that as they are always wrong ‘.

Exactly the reason the likes of Trump and Johnson got to power, misinformation.

[Yellow Fever 3,864]

The 0.04% after 15 years is within a smidgeon or GDP noise of actually being a negative number.

Then again it was Truss who championed this so all is explained.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,626]

7 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

The 0.04% after 15 years is within a smidgeon or GDP noise of actually being a negative number.

Quite comic that you can simultaneously put so much store in a forecast and lay out why it's impossible to consider it a plausible forecast.

[Yellow Fever 3,864]

58 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Quite comic that you can simultaneously put so much store in a forecast and lay out why it's impossible to consider it a plausible forecast.

I think you've just given a prime example of why we need better numerical and scientific skills in our educational system.

GDP is usually only given, even on real figures, to 1 decimal place - and usually subject to review by about +/- 0.1% too.

The government / OBR CPTTP 0.04% (after 15 years) has to be given to two decimal places to 'spin it' to make it 'non zero' which anybody rational or competent would of rounded it to zero. (Yes, a big fat ZERO).

Of course add in the typical GDP 'noise' and we would then say zero +/- 0.1. Of course it's a prediction but its essentially ZERO (but could be slightly negative).

This compares with was it 4% loss with exiting the SM (that's 100 times bigger even on the neutral 0.04%).

Edited December 17, 2023 by Yellow Fever

[littleyellowbirdie 2,626]

10 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think you've just given a prime example of why we need better numerical and scientific skills in our educational system.

GDP is usually only given, even on real figures, to 1 decimal place - and usually subject to review by about +/- 0.1% too.

The government / OBR CPTTP 0.04% (after 15 years) has to be given to two decimal places to 'spin it' to make it 'non zero' which anybody rational or competent would of rounded it to zero. (Yes, a big fat ZERO).

Of course add in the typical GDP 'noise' and we would then say zero +/- 0.1. Of course it's a prediction but its essentially ZERO (but could be slightly negative).

This compares with was it 4% loss with exiting the SM (that's 100 times bigger even on the neutral 0.04%)

You've made the right observation and given the wrong reason for it. Most people assume high specificity means high accuracy. In contrast, 'no growth' sounds vague and dismissive. The 'spin' here is trying to give an impression of an authoritative prediction through being inappropriately specific. You have to be numerate to recognise it's rubbish. And you have to be dishonest to carry on going on about it like it means something if you recognise it's flawed.

Then there's the obvious observation that we can be confident the membership will grow in the next 15 years, but their forecast assumes the same membership, along with a myriad other dodgy assumptions.

The reality is that the organisation is far too young to really have a handle on its value either way. It's an interesting prospect that all its members have invested a lot of diplomatic effort into developing though, which nobody does without a view to getting some sort of return.

Ah yes, the estimated 4% loss from Brexit... some cliff edge that turned out to be.

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie