Scouting thoughts on strikers

[tom cavendish 0]

1. Jerome has had a fantastic season, is a good lone striker and suits the way that Norwich play.2. Hooper is a good finisher and he is quite creative. Some say that he doesn''t suit being a lone striker but he does actually link quite well when Wes plays as they keep the ball down and can be a bit unpredictable to play against. As others have said, he is a good option from the bench if the team is losing.3. Grabban''s movement is good but he misses a lot of good chances to score. Many of those he does score seem very fortunate. He won''t get so many chances to score in the Premier League so he needs to be a lot better with his finishing. 4. Lafferty often looks likely to be sent-off but perhaps he got frustarted at being played in a wide position. He is more effective centrally up front unsettling defenders into making mistakes.5. RvW wasn''t even close to being good enough in the Premier League.6. Morris has only scored 1 goal in the lower leagues.AN has stronger striking options than Hughton had in the Premier League but what AN has are still likely to struggle to score goals. I wouldn''t be surprised if the club tries to replace 4 of them.

[Ray 111]

All very good Tom, but you seemed to have missed Loza, which brings into doubt your credibilty somewhat?

[Tetteys Jig 851]

1. Agreed, our best striker this season but can he step it up a gear in the prem? Previous evidence suggests he''s done pretty average there and will need some help scoring goals.

2. Seen a new side to Hoops with his creativity. Still has his finishing but it''d be nice to finally see him have an injury free season. He''s not the most naturally fit player out there. I liked his linking up with Wes but only with another striker there as well. They tried him and Wes vs Preston and it was just awful!

3. Grabban stretches defences better than any of our other options but still lacks the technique required to be a top striker in my book.He''ll get a few goals from sheer scrapping but another who will need to up his game next year.

4. Lafferty isn''t good enough simply put. He''s also a bit of a dodgy character as well. Not sure he''s the type of personality that fits the modern day game to be honest and he''s not talented enough for us to bear that burden. Hopefully for all parties sakes he moves on.

5. Correct about RvW but who knows if he can get some confidence. He''s still got a good footballing brain he just doesn''t seem to fit physically into any type of striker role. The guy who was playing at Sporting Lisbon that we bought initially looked like he could do a job but I think it''s probably wishful thinking. If AN can reignite his Norwich career though, it''ll be the best thing he''s ever done!

5.5 Loza? Appreciate he''s a long way off first team but he''s closer than Morris. Last chance saloon for him and a loan to the championship/ league 1 is needed.

6. Morris has seemed to struggle with the step up after looking a million £ for the youth side. Perhaps it''s too soon to judge but he has his work cut out after failing to impress even in league 2 last season. Time still on his side.

Agree with you about the strikers in that we need better. I can only see a max of 2 brought in and one of them would be a deep lying player to link the lone man and the midfield.

[tom cavendish 0]

7. Loza has struggled to score goals in the lower leagues and is now 21 years-old. Playing in League 2 at a club such as Cambridge Utd might be good for him at this stage.

[jaemae2 0]

[quote user="Tettey''s Jig

2. Seen a new side to Hoops with his creativity. Still has his finishing but it''d be nice to finally see him have an injury free season. He''s not the most naturally fit player out there. I liked his linking up with Wes but only with another striker there as well. They tried him and Wes vs Preston and it was just awful!

[/quote

You saw that THIS YEAR. He was injured for 2 weeks at the BEGINNING of the season and was COMPLETELY HEALTHY for the ENTIRE SEASON beyond that. The "great finisher" SCORED 9 GOALS FROM PLAY IN 36 GAMES in the CHAMPIONSHIP. 5 of them COMING AGAINST THE BOTTOM 3. Yeah, he''s great...

[lake district canary 4,831]

People seem to dismiss Grabban as a striker to be reckoned with,  yet we had some of our best forward play last season with him up front. Movement, speed, stamina all contributing to the high pressing game that AN likes.   Jerome grew into that role and was every bit as good at that aspect by the end of the season, but Grabban is the more natural at that role.   He may miss a few chances, but then Jerome missed a few sitters as well.    The key thing for AN looks to be the ability and desire to run, harrass and press - and both these players proved they can do this.  They will score goals at the higher level imo -  partly because of the manager and his ability to get the best from them, partly that  Jerome has done it before and Grabban imo will always get a few at any level, simply because of his speed and anticipation.  

Add to that Hooper who offers something slightly different and we have three strikers who can in combination do well and have proved it this season.  It is so easy to assume they will not do well at the top level, but why not assume that they will do well??  Its not such a great leap to make as they have probably one of the best managers around at the moment and the confidence of this season''s success to take into next. 

I''d certainly take those three to be our main strike force next season and with Loza/Morris we have enough to be going on with. The trump card could still be RVW, who may be given another chance to prove himself and if he takes it we have a really strong strike force. 

[Bradley Johnsons left foot 0]

[quote user="jaemae2"][quote user="Tettey''s Jig

2. Seen a new side to Hoops with his creativity. Still has his finishing but it''d be nice to finally see him have an injury free season. He''s not the most naturally fit player out there. I liked his linking up with Wes but only with another striker there as well. They tried him and Wes vs Preston and it was just awful!

[/quote

You saw that THIS YEAR. He was injured for 2 weeks at the BEGINNING of the season and was COMPLETELY HEALTHY for the ENTIRE SEASON beyond that. The "great finisher" SCORED 9 GOALS FROM PLAY IN 36 GAMES in the CHAMPIONSHIP. 5 of them COMING AGAINST THE BOTTOM 3. Yeah, he''s great...[/quote]

Jaemae, correct me if i''m wrong but i''m getting a funny feeling that you''re not awfully fond of Mr Hooper?

He actually appeared in 32 Championship games last year, I think around 18 of which were starts so 12 goals isn''t disastrous.

I agree re his link up play with Wes, he''s got a good first touch and has the upper body strength to hold up the ball. Just think he''s below Jerome and Grabban in the pecking order and if we were to sign another striker I can see him pushing for a move.

[Indy_Bones 444]

Hooper''s goal to game ratio''s are outrageously good, this season alone (taking into account minutes played converted into full games) he''s averaging a goal every 1.36 games!!!He''s consistently scored at under a 2.0 ratio since his Scunthorpe days and given the right setup and support I think he''d easily be one of our all-time top scorers given a few seasons of play.The problem however is that we simply don''t play the right system to support him, we''ve seen no indication of changing this system either and therefore we''re left with the problem of exactly how to use him in the way we do play.I''d argue that he does have value as a squad player (assuming we''re willing to flex slightly on the system/position when he plays) but if we got a strong offer then we''d probably be better letting him move on, which is a real shame because he''s a far better striker than many here will ever give him credit for.

[Ray 111]

Tom,

You said;

7. Loza has struggled to score goals in the lower leagues and is now 21 years-old. Playing in League 2 at a club such as Cambridge Utd might be good for him at this stage.

But he has averaged 10 goals per game in the Championship (1 in 9 mins of play) with a 100% pass completeion percentage (3 from 3).

Just love stats!!

[mrs miggins 0]

Agree with Indy, Hooper''s stats are very impressive, much more so than Grabban.

We have to think; who''s our best lone striker? - Jerome

Who''s our best 2nd striker (as a two)? - Hooper

Not only can Hooper play as a second striker, he can also play the number 10 role like we''ve seen this season.

If we buy another striker I can see the odd one out being Grabban, who scored the same amount of goals as Hooper this season, but had more time on the pitch.

[PurpleCanary 6,386]

[quote user="lake district canary"]People seem to dismiss Grabban as a striker to be reckoned with,  yet we had some of our best forward play last season with him up front. Movement, speed, stamina all contributing to the high pressing game that AN likes.   Jerome grew into that role and was every bit as good at that aspect by the end of the season, but Grabban is the more natural at that role.   He may miss a few chances, but then Jerome missed a few sitters as well.    The key thing for AN looks to be the ability and desire to run, harrass and press - and both these players proved they can do this.  They will score goals at the higher level imo -  partly because of the manager and his ability to get the best from them, partly that  Jerome has done it before and Grabban imo will always get a few at any level, simply because of his speed and anticipation.  

Add to that Hooper who offers something slightly different and we have three strikers who can in combination do well and have proved it this season.  It is so easy to assume they will not do well at the top level, but why not assume that they will do well??  Its not such a great leap to make as they have probably one of the best managers around at the moment and the confidence of this season''s success to take into next. 

I''d certainly take those three to be our main strike force next season and with Loza/Morris we have enough to be going on with. The trump card could still be RVW, who may be given another chance to prove himself and if he takes it we have a really strong strike force. 

[/quote]No.

[Miss Bum Bum 0]

[quote user="Ray"]All very good Tom, but you seemed to have missed Loza, which brings into doubt your credibilty somewhat?[/quote]

I am surprised you dont have a Russell Martin angle to this story.

[lappinitup 629]

[quote user="lappinitup"]Tom''s scouting is highly regarded.....[quote user="tom cavendish"]My track record was fantastic in spotting good players......the manager would call to ask my opinion. I never got one wrong.......I was told that my opposition match reports were excellent......[/quote]By himself..........[quote user="tom cavendish"]It wouldn''t be right of me to name players that I recommended in a professional capacity.Sometimes

it was about saying who not to sign. A manager would call me and say

that he was interested in a particular player. I would go to a match to

see the player and then the manager would call me back within a couple

of days. Bizarrely enough, on every such occasion I said not to sign the

player in question and they never did. I always made the right call.I

would sometimes be notified by a chief scout or manager that the club

would be looking for a player to play in a particular position and I

would be asked to forward my suggestions. My track record was fantastic.Sometimes

I would see a really great prospect that would be a bargain but a

manager wouldn''t be interested in taking it further simply because they

were not looking to sign a player in that position at that time. It

became frustrating for me to then see the player go on to much better

things with another club.I would also do opposition match

reports. Basically, it was form filling and drawing diagrams of what

teams do at set-pieces etc. A lot of clubs now don''t have much

of a scouting network and management teams have become heavily reliant

upon using agents.[/quote]I love that last line. [:D][/quote]Let''s try again because...............Tom''s worth it. [:D]

[ZLF 335]

I see boro are reported to have had a £2.5m bid for 32 yo Daryl Murphy - a player who in his 10 year career has scored a third of all his career goals just one season - rejected.

What would Tom value our players at in comparison?

[morty 0]

[quote user="ZippersLeftFoot"]I see boro are reported to have had a £2.5m bid for 32 yo Daryl Murphy - a player who in his 10 year career has scored a third of all his career goals just one season - rejected.

What would Tom value our players at in comparison?[/quote]TWTD values him at 4 million.Bless.

[Ray 111]

Dogg,

You wrote;

I am surprised you dont have a Russell Martin angle to this story.

I''ll work on it if it will make you happy, but even I would not suggest he is a better striker than those we have, with the possible exception of RWV. Can strike a ball though as we saw last season. There you go will that do?

[ZLF 335]

Any views on who would be a good signing as a striker for us Ray?

[chicken 0]

I hate stats when being used by muppets.

Grabban - someone tell me how many chances a game he gets compared to other players please. If you are great statititions and it means so much.

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 2,424]

Grabban took 3.5 shots per game last season, compared to Jerome''s 3.3 and Hooper''s 1.8. 28% of LG''s shots were on target, 37% of CJ''s and 63% of GH''s.

Grabban''s conversion rate was 14%, CJ''s 17% and Hooper''s was 40% (!).

If you break this down by area, Grabban''s convo rate in the 6 yard box was 50%, CJ''s 42% and GH''s 67%.

In the Penalty Area (not including 6 yard box); LG 11%, CJ 12% and Hooper 47%.

Outside the box; LG 13%, CJ 15%, GH 13%.

When it came to taking shots, LG took 7% of his shots in the 6 Yard area; CJ 16% and GH 10%.

In the pen area (not inc 6 Yard area) LG 65%, CJ 66% and GH 63%.

Out of box; LG 28% CJ 17% GH 27%.

Basically LG had the worst convo rate, but was more likely to take a shot than any other player. Jerome had significantly more shots in the 6 yard area than Grabban though and you would expect them to score with most shots that close in. (Jerome''s 42% conversion rate from within 6 yards is worrying). Grabban was prone to taking a lot of shots from distance which would obviously be harder to convert.

Hooper was the most efficient scorer, but took considerably less shots per game, suggesting it is harder to create chances for him (which fits his profile as a more static striker).

Grabban and Jerome are pretty similar in the fact that both take a lot of shots, but both struggle with conversion rate (you''d want to see that around 22% - 25% really).

[ZLF 335]

Trouble is chicken Grabban is preferred by Neil - what are the stats to account for that?

I dont think any of the data sets cover chances that each players had. Nor Distance covered? Challenges made, successful runs dragging CB out of position to create space for others, mistakes forced by closing defenders down - all of these are why Neil values Grabbans play; most do not have data items readily available to manipulate influence and persuade.

The only data is shots taken - and that comes irrespective of how speculative it was or whether it was 2 yards out from an open goal or 25 yards close to the touchline - or the class of the opposition.

The raw uncontextualised volumes are below

Lewis - 83 shots - 12 goals 14% are goals

Hoops 30 shots - 12 goals 40% are goals

Jerome 116 -20 17% are goals

and would suggest on just one very basic level that Hoops is the better finisher - but not necessarily the better player or striker.

I agree with your views on stats chicken - they have to be applied carefully

[Ray 111]

Zipper,

Something I have thought about in depth, as most of us probably have, but there are too many unknowns for me.

1) What system we will be playing predominantly next season

2) What budget constraints exist, not just the transfer fee (assuming it is someone in contract) but also the salary because if we were to go for someone as high profile as say Charlie Austin, I can only imagine his salary would eclipse any we currently pay. Therefore there may well be a knock on effect and the entire squad wants more, not necessarily parity but..... This needs to be handled very carefully or......

3) What AN thinks about those we have and the youngsters coming through, obviously the cheaper option.

It''s all well and good posters on here having opinions (and I include myself) but essentialy it all means diddly squat unless we have the answers to the above quandries.

Depending on the budget, etc. it may well be we look to spend more on the midfield in the summer, another creative player (unless VOO is the man) and another in the Tettey mould. I venture to suggest we may keep a tight reign on the purse strings, until the January window, when our needs, if any, become more apparent, or possibly the loan window.

That said, if Benteke, Austin or similar pitch up, that''ll do me!

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 2,424]

Just a quick addition to my previous comment and a retraction.

I said that Jerome and Grabban were probably low of their convo rates of 17% and 14% respectively. After writing that I thought I would compare it to other notable strikers in the Championship and their rates compare fairly well. At least Jerome''s does.

Quick run down of the players picked off the top of my head as high scorers.

Ighalo - 28%

Brett Pitmann - 18.3%

Deeney - 17%

Chris Martin - 17%

Murphy - 16.4%

Gestede - 16%

Bamford - 15.7%

Rhodes - 15.5%

This is a crude assessment that doesn''t look into where the shots were coming from, which can be more telling of course. But it shows that Jerome at least is holding his own amongst some of the more proficient strikers in the league. Grabban is struggling.

Of course finishing isn''t the only story with strikers, and more and more in the modern game they are expected to lead the line single handedly and brings others into the game. As well as close down defenders and all of that side.

These stats won''t provide the whole picture, but they do provide some insight into one of a strikers primary functions - scoring.

[PurpleCanary 6,386]

[quote user="Ray"]Zipper,

Something I have thought about in depth, as most of us probably have, but there are too many unknowns for me.

1) What system we will be playing predominantly next season

2) What budget constraints exist, not just the transfer fee (assuming it is someone in contract) but also the salary because if we were to go for someone as high profile as say Charlie Austin, I can only imagine his salary would eclipse any we currently pay. Therefore there may well be a knock on effect and the entire squad wants more, not necessarily parity but..... This needs to be handled very carefully or......

3) What AN thinks about those we have and the youngsters coming through, obviously the cheaper option.

It''s all well and good posters on here having opinions (and I include myself) but essentialy it all means diddly squat unless we have the answers to the above quandries.

Depending on the budget, etc. it may well be we look to spend more on the midfield in the summer, another creative player (unless VOO is the man) and another in the Tettey mould. I venture to suggest we may keep a tight reign on the purse strings, until the January window, when our needs, if any, become more apparent, or possibly the loan window.

That said, if Benteke, Austin or similar pitch up, that''ll do me![/quote]Ray, as for 1) I think it is a fair bet that if one up front was Neil''s favoured starting system in the Championship then it will also be so in the Premier League. As for 2) there is also the complicating but potentially useful possibility of a loan deal for a striker. Supposedly Bamford, for example, will be loaned out again, but this time to a PL club. But your point about wages would still be valid.

[chicken 0]

Actually that sort of proves my point. Grabban''s conversion rate is worse because he has more shots. That means he gets in positions to take shots on more, or he is more willing to try a shot.

That in itself balances against someone like Jerome who is perhaps a little cooler and who will perhaps try and bring in a player to get a better shot.

Hooper is a hard one, he is a typical goal poacher, but his stats are difficult to use to prove anything as you need to compare like for like. For example, how many goals did he score in terms of starts etc.

I think it is clear, however, that our top three strikers are Jerome, Grabban and Hooper. However, if another striker was to come in, you''d expect them to be better or different to what we have. That would result, probably, in RVW, Loza and Lafferty to be shown the door first. However - Hooper may be told this will result in less game time for him or he may decide he doesn''t want to fight three players for a place.

We''ll soon see.

[TIL 1010 5,246]

[quote user="tom cavendish"]1. Jerome has had a fantastic season, is a good lone striker and suits the way that Norwich play.

2. Hooper is a good finisher and he is quite creative. Some say that he doesn''t suit being a lone striker but he does actually link quite well when Wes plays as they keep the ball down and can be a bit unpredictable to play against. As others have said, he is a good option from the bench if the team is losing.

3. Grabban''s movement is good but he misses a lot of good chances to score. Many of those he does score seem very fortunate. He won''t get so many chances to score in the Premier League so he needs to be a lot better with his finishing.

4. Lafferty often looks likely to be sent-off but perhaps he got frustarted at being played in a wide position. He is more effective centrally up front unsettling defenders into making mistakes.

5. RvW wasn''t even close to being good enough in the Premier League.

6. Morris has only scored 1 goal in the lower leagues.

AN has stronger striking options than Hughton had in the Premier League but what AN has are still likely to struggle to score goals. I wouldn''t be surprised if the club tries to replace 4 of them.
[/quote]

This should be filed in the '' no 5hite Sherlock '' section. [:''(]

[chicken 0]

[quote user="Bethnal Yellow and Green"]Just a quick addition to my previous comment and a retraction.

I said that Jerome and Grabban were probably low of their convo rates of 17% and 14% respectively. After writing that I thought I would compare it to other notable strikers in the Championship and their rates compare fairly well. At least Jerome''s does.

Quick run down of the players picked off the top of my head as high scorers.

Ighalo - 28%

Brett Pitmann - 18.3%

Deeney - 17%

Chris Martin - 17%

Murphy - 16.4%

Gestede - 16%

Bamford - 15.7%

Rhodes - 15.5%

This is a crude assessment that doesn''t look into where the shots were coming from, which can be more telling of course. But it shows that Jerome at least is holding his own amongst some of the more proficient strikers in the league. Grabban is struggling.

Of course finishing isn''t the only story with strikers, and more and more in the modern game they are expected to lead the line single handedly and brings others into the game. As well as close down defenders and all of that side.

These stats won''t provide the whole picture, but they do provide some insight into one of a strikers primary functions - scoring.[/quote]

No, it doesn''t prove that Grabban is struggling - not on it''s own.

Again, you want to know how many chances they have had on goal and how many games they have played. If Grabban is having more chances then his stats will look worse than someone who only shoots inside the area for example. Also, subs will often look better, especially if they come on and score, often when a game is already wrapped up or the team are already winning and the game more open.

[tom cavendish 0]

Last summer I said that Norwich should try for Patrick Bamford:http://services.pinkun.com/forums/pinkun/cs/forums/3146525/ShowPost.aspxI still think that he would be a good fit for Norwich. Rickie Lambert too.