Three Year Strategy (and also many thanks to all of you)

[Camuldonum 0]

It''s a serious question but I admit I ask it from a disadvantage.  As all of you know Colchester are down and out after two seasons in your League - the highest we''ve ever been or likely to be - and so I''m not really sure how it works at this level.  However, I have spent half a century in the lower leagues and think I understand them a bit.

I also read all the various thoughts about your spending policy pro and con and I fully understand (I think) both points of view.

I think you can have a long term policy in the lower leagues (perhaps even a three year one) and a successful exponent of that currently is Paul Ince and, with more money to throw around in League Two than is usual, Ferguson Junior.  But there is a pretty big gap even between League One and the Championship as I see it and I think the general standard of football in League One/Two is more stable and perhaps easier to analyse.

I think Roeder has done a wonderful job for you (at the time of Mr Grant I had you down as a six pointer for the U''s, LOL)  and I''d love to see Norwich back in the Premier League - it would be a real feather in the cap for you wonderful supporters and for the region - but I think I would be a bit worried as to whether you can actually have a long term strategy this high up.

In One and Two there''s not usually much money about - it really is about careful player selection (and luck, of course) whereas it seems to me that this high up it is ever-changing and therefore much more difficult to plan a strategy.  As I''m always saying with the current structure in the three year plan there are going to be at least nine teams coming down from the Premiership, maybe a couple of "names" with money and with parachute money for two seasons and presumably this will continue to put up the cost of players who can compete and make a difference at this level.

As I''ve also posted from next season loanees will be thin on the ground - and more expensive - because of the new seven subs rule in the Premiership.  This might give Mr Roeder an advantage because he obviously has good high level contacts but there''s no doubt there will be fewer people about.

But it seems to me that in this Division the game shifts dramatically from season to season because of the Premiership influence which is why it must be terribly difficult to pull off a long term strategy - that''s not to say that Mr Roeder can''t do it.  Shortage of funds meant, so far as I was concerned, that the best Colchester could do was to survive.  Sadly we haven''t but that''s football and I''ve no complaints on that score.

It also seems to me that to have a real chance of reaching the Premiership without having recently been in it there isn''t much option but to throw as much money as you can at the situation.  Of course you may be fortunate enough to obtain real investment from somewhere in the future that enables you to do that but I have to say (on not much experience at this level) that my overall impression is that having money available is also a vital ingredient and may become more so in future seasons.

Of course Mr Roeder is an experienced Manager at the highest level and I''m just a fan who loves the game but it seems to me that in this Division there will always be clubs with money to splash about (via their Premiership relegation) and there are not the salary caps that exist in the lower leagues.  Indeed several of the leading teams in the Division this year (if reported correctly) have been paying Premiership type wages to at least some of their key players.

To be truthful, if Premiership is the ambition (as it must be for such a well supported club as you) I am a bit doubtful that strategy will overcome cash this high up when push comes to shove.

Of course strategy WITH cash is another matter and if that comes to you in the next three years I have little doubt that you will make it.  I''m just a tiny bit doubtful that strategy without cash in this Division in the next three years will make anyone a promotion contender.  I think it is in the Division''s beneath you but increasingly not in this Division.  It worked for my club getting into your Division but it wasn''t good enough to keep us there: ditto Scunthorpe.

Either way I''ve enjoyed (yes, really) our two seasons this high up but truthfully I think it beyond our means to sustain it.  Here''s a sad fact of football life: your friends down the A140 keep a record of the post codes of season ticket holders/ticket purchasers/club shop purchasers using credit cards: last year over 9000 of them had a CO (Colchester) postcode which is *our* catchment area. 

That''s our problem really!

And finally thanks to everyone for allowing an interloper on a smashing board (my qualification is spending quite a lot of cash in your club shop on account of the Girl Upstairs for her Christmas/Birthday presents - the latest says Susan 26 on the back).

Our other daughter is a professional musician (no threat to Smudger''s Maximo Park, she''s a classical gal) so I''ll end with Gilbert and Sullivan HMS Pinafore take on strategy:

 

When I have learnt what progress has been made in modern gunnery
When I know more of tactics than a novice in a nunnery
In short, when I''ve a smattering of elemental strategy

 

GP: General pause.

Sullivan stage directions (spoken): Hmmm...stratagee?  Err Pattergee?  Mattergee? (Count off on fingers)

Ah! I have it!

You''ll say a better Major-General had never satergee.
 

Let''s hope he is a Modern Major-General for you.  We are not in your League next season and so it''s probably not right that I should stick around so thanks to everyone and my very best wishes  to you for 2008-2009 and for putting up with me.

If I could work out how to do an Icon it would be the Big Smiley!

 

 

 

 

[lappinitup 629]

You can''t leave us cam,  [:''(][:''(][:''(]

[First Wazzock 1,011]

Camuldonum you are welcome on our board anytime. You unbiased anlysis is a joy to read.

[Inch High aka Inchy.. 417]

Don''t leave us Cam.  You can still keep one eye on us..[;)]

[Shack Attack 0]

You''re more than welcome on here as far as I''m concerned, the fact that you''re not a City fan doesn''t bother me in the slightest.You make some good points but I do wonder whether the vast millions available to any relegated Premiership teams could work in the favour of a team that has a settled long term plan. The teams that get relegated tend to end up having wholesale changes in their playing staff the first season they go down and, despite all the money they have, I wonder if that''s the best way to go about getting promotion. Reading are an example of a club who built a promotion winning team gradually and I think that it can happen again, provided the fans have the requisite amount of patience. I don''t think we''ll have a huge amount of money to spend pre-season and that''s why Glenn Roeder is mentioning this three year plan. I''d be happy with a top ten finish next season ans then challenging for promotion (play-offs or automatic) the season after considering where we were when Glenn Roeder took over.Good luck next year and keep posting on here [:D]

[blahblahblah 2]

[quote]It also seems to me that to have a real chance of reaching the Premiership without having recently been in it there isn''t much option but to throw as much money as you can at the situation.  Of course you may be fortunate enough to obtain real investment from somewhere in the future that enables you to do that but I have to say (on not much experience at this level) that my overall impression is that having money available is also a vital ingredient and may become more so in future seasons.[/quote]

Before this season, I would have agreed with this.  But then Charlton came down, and put a striker from league 1 Crewe on 20 k a week, signed Iwelumo from your lot on a free, probably on a huge wage, and Sheffield United signed Scunthorpes'' Billy Sharp for 2 million. Both teams have failed to make the play-offs.  In previous seasons the teams coming down would have had their pick of the best of the championship players, probably would have signed someone like David Nugent up front.  The thing is, the Nugents of this world are now playing Premiership reserve football, which means that the relegated teams can''t buy in the best of the 2nd tier any more, they have to look further down the food chain when their best players activate their relegation clauses. 

Did the clubs coming down last season just buy badly, or was it just that the Championship talent cupboard was bare ?  Is the effectiveness of the parachute payments being diminished by the lack of available players ?

I think that the paucity of available talent goes a long way to explaining why there is only 14 points between a play-off position and a relegation position after 45 games.  The only way to change this is to restrict squad sizes in the Premiership, to force the big teams to sell a player in order to buy one.  Otherwise money will continue to talk louder and louder in the Premiership, and English teams will take all 4 places in the Champions league most seasons, and the Championship will become tighter and tighter.  If nothing changes, then who you know (I''m thinking of the strings Hull have pulled with loans and frees this season here) and how you motivate the players you have (Stoke, Bristol City) will become as important, if not more so, than what you can spend in this league. 

[Budapest Canary 154]

The "three year strategy" announcement may also refer to more immediate ambitions -- without giving too much away. At leaast I hope so.

[macdougalls perm 0]

I hope you keep posting on this board - I always enjoy reading your posts!! You''re a very welcome visitor.

[Canaries for Ever 0]

I enjoyed reading your post - the only thing I''m not sure about .....

Isn''t the quote from ''Pirates of Penzance''?

Hope you still pop up from time to time.

[Desi Rascall 0]

hi cam the trouble with 3 year/5 year strategies, is that football,is a funny old game as grievsie might say. A simple knock or a clumsy tackle on a key player can send even the most carefully laid plans down the toilet,and have repercussions into the next season as well, any Norwich city fan can tell you what long term injuries to norwich city players,like Brynn Gunn,Darren Eadie, Craig Bellamy, Julian Francis or Robert Earnshaw can do to the course of a season,and in many respects the repurcussions can be felt into the next season also.

The second part of the problem is the reletively short career of a top flight player, which means whilst the manager and even the fans,might be able to consider putting their premiership ambitions on hold, a player may well not be prepared to hang about if they feel they can get more instantaneous success elsewhere.

Now personally i beleive it will be 2-3 years before we are able to fully able to make a concerted challenge for the top flight,simply due to the depth of squad rebuilding that needs to be done,thats not to say its not possible to challenge next season, because as we all know success can build its own momentum. But my own expectations are low key.

appologies for the typo''s and spelling mistakes

p.s hope you stick around as an honourary canary,as your posts are always worth reading.

[NegativeVibes 0]

Don''t leave! You''re one of the few non-Norwich supporters on this forum that I can stand!!

[ricardo 8,034]

You are always welcome to drop in for a chat Cam. Hope your boys baptise their new home with a few juicey wins next season.

It''s going to get harder every year in this league because of all the new money coming in and the relegated teams with their big payouts.

NCFC need a big backer if they are ever going to get back into the big time.

Sometimes I despair but other times I am hopeful that it will happen.

Hope springs eternal with every new season.

[Desi Rascall 0]

[quote]Julian Francis[/quote]

Damien Francis.

[quote]Did the clubs coming down last season just buy badly, or was it just that the Championship talent cupboard was bare ?  Is the effectiveness of the parachute payments being diminished by the lack of available players ?[/quote]

I think we are seeing the effects of Inflation caused by the increase in the size of the Parachute payments and influx of speculators blah, players of a standard that a couple of years ago would have attracted a transfer fee of say what half of what is currently being touted. If we are not careful we will end up in a sitution that occured in the premiership a few years ago,where English Players were effectively priced out of the market,and managers were forced to look overseas for better value.if we are not careful the second tier of English football could very well go the same way.

[Mello Yello 2,572]

A Three Year Strategy (and also many thanks to all of you)  ......After Three Years of Tragedy (thanks to the current board)..... 

[Camuldonum 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]

You are always welcome to drop in for a chat Cam. Hope your boys baptise their new home with a few juicey wins next season.

It''s going to get harder every year in this league because of all the new money coming in and the relegated teams with their big payouts.

NCFC need a big backer if they are ever going to get back into the big time.

Sometimes I despair but other times I am hopeful that it will happen.

Hope springs eternal with every new season.

[/quote]

 

Not only does Hope Spring Eternal but we all start with 0 points! 

It''s a matter of opinion, of course, but I do think it gets harder each year in the Championship with three dropping down (likely with cash).

I''m completely bonkers of course.  I''m really looking forward to next season.  At last we have a decent ground - I''m old but I''m not misty eyed about Layer Road.  It was a joke in your league.

In our first season we got close to the play offs but when we realised that might mean we would have to ground share with Ipswich we backed off a bit!

[Old Boy 0]

No comfort I know, but Col U last year were the best second-tier team I''ve seen at Carra Rd for a long time. I say "team" because they played like a true team, with discipline, and working for each other. I assumed you''d be a fixture in this division until you regrouped and tried to move up to the Prem. I suppose, as you say, the laws of financial gravity dragged you down. It could happen for you again though, and I hope it does.

[Camuldonum 0]

[quote user="NegativeVibes"]

Don''t leave! You''re one of the few non-Norwich supporters on this forum that I can stand!!

[/quote]

 

What a kind remark!  I *am* a sort of Canary (cross breed, hybrid?) as The Girl Upstairs is a Canary fan through and through and, bless her, she''s cost me a fortune in your club shop but she''s absolutely worth it.  "I like the look of that away kit" she said.  Oh well................

I know you have progressed from the Grant era (even if some of you debate how much) because at one point she used to say: "Dad, I don''t want to know what  the score is." (I''m given to calling the score upstairs)

A Norwich thing I remember from your Premiership season:  she''d gone out shopping in the afternoon and when she came back I said: "You''re 2-0 up against Man U with 10 minutes to go."

"You''re having a laugh," she said.  "No," I said and showed the BBC live score. 

We must take those wonderful moments when we can I think.  All of us.

And when it flashed up on Sky Sports "Colchester are relegated" she did have the decency to come downstairs and say "Dad, honestly I''m really, really sorry."

So I guess she''ll get your new away kit....................

(And our other daughter, a musician in Spain with no interest in football at all, had obviously been forewarned by The Girl Upstairs as she began with: "Dad, I''m sorry about your football team."

LOL!

I''m not sorry or downhearted. This season we were not good enough.  We both start with 0 pts in August and then it will be different won''t it?

I certainly hope so!

[Mister Chops 7]

[quote user="camuldonum"]A Norwich thing I remember from your Premiership season:  she''d gone out shopping in the afternoon and when she came back I said: "You''re 2-0 up against Man U with 10 minutes to go."

"You''re having a laugh," she said.  "No," I said and showed the BBC live score. 

We must take those wonderful moments when we can I think.  All of us.

[/quote]Indeed we must, and I wish you more than your share of wonderful moments next season.  I also hope you will continue to post here, even if only from time to time.

[7rew 0]

[quote user="camuldonum"]

so I''ll end with Gilbert and Sullivan HMS Pinafore take on strategy:

 

When I have learnt what progress has been made in modern gunneryWhen I know more of tactics than a novice in a nunneryIn short, when I''ve a smattering of elemental strategy

 

GP: General pause.

Sullivan stage directions (spoken): Hmmm...stratagee?  Err Pattergee?  Mattergee? (Count off on fingers)

Ah! I have it!

You''ll say a better Major-General had never satergee. 

Let''s hope he is a Modern Major-General for you.  We are not in your League next season and so it''s probably not right that I should stick around so thanks to everyone and my very best wishes  to you for 2008-2009 and for putting up with me.

If I could work out how to do an Icon it would be the Big Smiley!

 [/quote]

possibly the I am the very model of a modern major general from the Pirates of Penzance, thenBut otherwise good, if depressing points.