Striving to make sense of the Ukraine war

[ricardo 7,411]

4 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Russia is on the brink of civil war and Radio 5 has live commentary of a ladies cricket match attended by 4,000 people. It beggars belief. 

We are English mate and have our own priorities.😉

[Pyro Pete 1,925]

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

Prigozhin met Putin 10 days ago and not one Russian general has apprehended him as yet. He left a great gap when his fighters left, ready for Ukraine coming into Dombass. Lets see what is planned for coming monday the 26.06, International day of remembering the victims of torture.

I got a feeling that Putin, Shoigu and Prigozhin will not outlive this spat. the latter two can't stand each other and Prigozhin has no military training. Maybe they should go a minimum of three rounds in the ring and sort it out.

[Yellow Fever 3,841]

Reports that Wagner are actually after a likely lightly defended nuclear weapons depot near Borisoglebsk, Voronezh Oblast.

Hmm.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Yellow Fever

[The Real Buh 3,486]

4 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Reports that Wagner are actually after a likely lightly defended nuclear weapons depot near Borisoglebsk, Voronezh Oblast.

Hmm.

Big hmm that one

[Herman 9,838]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

There are over 50 thousand people on Flight Tracker, following RSD629 from Moscow to St Petersburg.

Transponder now switched off. Its a Russian VIP plane on which Putin usually travels. 

Is it submarine to South America time yet? 😉

Edited June 24, 2023 by Herman

[ricardo 7,411]

1 minute ago, Herman said:

Is it submarine to South America time yet? 😉

I think they are waiting for his dog to arrive before they can board.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

One thing we mustn't think is that this guy is any less likely to wage war on Ukraine. He is a hawk and thinks the command of the war is the problem, not the validity of it.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,604]

2 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Russia is on the brink of civil war and Radio 5 has live commentary of a ladies cricket match attended by 4,000 people. It beggars belief. 

Yeah, but what Putin is doing just isn't cricket.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,604]

10 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

One thing we mustn't think is that this guy is any less likely to wage war on Ukraine. He is a hawk and thinks the command of the war is the problem, not the validity of it.

If you listen to the way Prigozhin is positioning himself, he has said the war on Ukraine is under false pretenses and was engineered by the Russian army, who he's saying was hoodwinked by Shoigu. He has actually built in an off ramp for Putin into his narrative in this. Prigozhin is popular in Russia so it's a nightmare for Putin that he's calling BS over the threat from Ukraine and NATO.

It's really quite amusing though. You build a private army of Russian convicts and start selling out the leader of the group without considering the possibility they might turn on you.

Either way, this is a massive boost for Ukraine now that Russia is being disrupted behind its lines and its military resources being diverted.

Edited June 24, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

58 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

If you listen to the way Prigozhin is positioning himself, he has said the war on Ukraine is under false pretenses and was engineered by the Russian army, who he's saying was hoodwinked by Shoigu. He has actually built in an off ramp for Putin into his narrative in this. Prigozhin is popular in Russia so it's a nightmare for Putin that he's calling BS over the threat from Ukraine and NATO.

It's really quite amusing though. You build a private army of Russian convicts and start selling out the leader of the group without considering the possibility they might turn on you.

Either way, this is a massive boost for Ukraine now that Russia is being disrupted behind its lines and its military resources being diverted.

False pretences. However I'm not sure its the same ones we claim.

[The Real Buh 3,486]

“It took Wagner troops 18 months to get 7km into Ukraine, it’s taken them 1 day to get 350km into Russia”

lol!

[Herman 9,838]

Is it a coup, putsch, rebellion or revolution? 

[ricardo 7,411]

2 minutes ago, Herman said:

Is it a coup, putsch, rebellion or revolution? 

It's a special motorway operation.

[KiwiScot 1,489]

So what Wagner rock up to Moscow and occupy the Kremlin with low key the only ones around?

[ricardo 7,411]

Rumours that Ukrainians have crossed the Dnipro near Kherson.

[cambridgeshire canary 6,833]

It's over. Prigozhin is turning his troops around. Nothing to see here folks, it was all theatre.

[Christoph Stiepermann 1,155]

If nothing else it's nice to watch Putin squirm a little bit. This whole situation is far too complex in terms of the medium and long term for most of us to get our heads around  but in the short term it might allow Ukraine to gain some ground and we get to watch Putin squirm from a more comprised position. You've gotta take the small little wins in an awful situation like this. Prigozhin is just as much of an evil ******* as Putin but he has some influence over the opinion of ordinary Russian people and has called out the Russian leadership for manufacturing the reasons behind the invasion and informed his followers of that fact, that can only be a good thing. 

From an ideological standpoint I'd rather a self interested criminal who would have no interest in spending the rest of his life hiding in a bunker in control of Russia and their nuclear arsenal over an insane ex-KGB ideologue who lost his sense of reality a long time ago and may be prone to doing the unthinkable. 

I don't think the Wagner leader will replace Putin or anything but in this instance there's a clear lesser or two evils and any disruption he causes can only be a good thing. Well, I say good thing, there is no good that can come of this but maybe just some small little wins. 

[ricardo 7,411]

3 minutes ago, cambridgeshire canary said:

It's over. Prigozhin is turning his troops around. Nothing to see here folks, it was all theatre.

He's a dead man walking if he does.

[Yellow Fever 3,841]

17 minutes ago, ricardo said:

He's a dead man walking if he does.

It depends what bargaining chips he has ☢️

[ricardo 7,411]

4 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

It depends what bargaining chips he has ☢️

Perhaps Shoigu will fall out of a window in the near future.

[KiwiScot 1,489]

All dissapointing now it's over. Doubt Ukraine got a real advance in the field and even this could have tricked them into taking action.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 hours ago, cambridgeshire canary said:

It's over. Prigozhin is turning his troops around. Nothing to see here folks, it was all theatre.

Really? Its total chaos in a nation that was supposed to be united in a war to smash the fascist Ukrainian regime and unchain its people.

[Daz Sparks 1,189]

It's a circus. 

Wagner and Prigozhin offered asylum in Belarus with immunity from arrest. 

Putin's, Russia's Military, Wagner's,  there seems to be no credibility remaining. If it wasn't for the tragedy in Ukraine, it would be funny. 

[ricardo 7,411]

All will turn out OK. Putin is famous for forgiving those who go against him.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,604]

30 minutes ago, ricardo said:

All will turn out OK. Putin is famous for forgiving those who go against him.

Prighozin must know he's a dead man, surely?

[KiwiScot 1,489]

What a day.

[KiwiScot 1,489]

"Ukrainian forces are using the experiences from the first two weeks of the counter-offensive to refine tactics for assaulting the deep, well prepared Russian defences. Ukrainian units are making gradual but steady tactical progress in key areas.

It notes that Russian forces have been making their own “significant effort” to launch an attack in the Serebryanka Forest near Kremina in the eastern region of Luhansk.

This probably reflects continued Russian senior leadership orders to go on the offensive whenever possible. Russia has made some small gains, but Ukrainian forces have prevented a breakthrough."

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

14 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Prighozin must know he's a dead man, surely?

Next President of Belarus

[littleyellowbirdie 2,604]

On 25/06/2023 at 14:15, keelansgrandad said:

Next President of Belarus

Next guy out of the window in Belarus at this rate. Rostov-on-Don is the major logistical point for resupply of the war effort from the Russian side. Having that out of action even temporarily has clearly given Ukraine a lovely gift to reclaim land all of a sudden.

The only slight concern is that Prigozhin looks to regain favour by setting up Wagner to run out of Belorusia on Putin's behalf; the Ukrainians will have a new front to contend with. I can't quite believe that that might have been an end game they'd have conspired to, but most of the Wagner forces are now in Belorus and Prigozhin must surely be nervous of Putin right now given how much damage he has done to him. It's not like Belorus is going to protect him if Putin does break his word. Mind you, I can't imagine Putin breaking his word, can you? ;-)