Liz Truss.. The next Prime Minister!

[Herman 9,838]

Oooff.....

 

[BigFish 1,988]

On 25/12/2021 at 15:32, Rock The Boat said:

A conservative

None Left, or at least none left within the professional ranks of the Conservative Party. They have been hounded out by the fruit loops of Brexiteers; Johnson expelled the last remnants to force through his calamitous Brexit.

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

On 26/12/2021 at 09:54, 1902 said:

Truss has virtually none of the skills required to actually hold that Tory coalition together. Rock the boat has summed it up perfectly in many ways.

The social conservative and fiscally conservative part of the voting public is probably not as large as we may imagine, even amongst Tory voters, it does however dominate the membership.

Amongst people who vote Tory there's also a strong, small state, socially liberal section of the conservative voting block, especially in the South and South West. Then there's the more one nation Tories who are socially conservative and want spending. They are concentrated in the old red wall.

Truss can probably appeal to the first by her tilt to the ERG, but she probably can't reconsile that with the other two element as Boris did for about a year, partially because they are mutually exclusive and partly as the conservative party has very little political capital left in the bank for her to buy voter good will. She doesn't have Brexit as a banner to rally the party or voters around and she doesn't have the personality of Boris which kept him out of hot water for a while.

All political parties in first past the post systems tend towards internal instability after too much time in government or when they are doing very badly. The two party system basically ensures that they cannot remain ideologically coherent, and unless a party is winning easily, has an issue to rally around or is just united by a hatred of the previous administration they eventually collapse for a period of time until a new coalition is found.

Good analysis - and ironically, an 80-seat majority probably hastens the internal collapse.

Edited December 28, 2021 by Rock The Boat

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

3 hours ago, BigFish said:

None Left, or at least none left within the professional ranks of the Conservative Party. They have been hounded out by the fruit loops of Brexiteers; Johnson expelled the last remnants to force through his calamitous Brexit.

Voters and the party faithful thought Johnson was a Conservative and that's why they voted for him, but since getting into office he has proven to be an old fashioned Liberal, occupying the centre ground. All the Prime Ministers since Thatcher, that is Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May and now Johnson have all governed from that same space, though the various factions, as 1902 describes well, have fought for control and influence over whoever the PM happened to be. Look at Johnson - the greenest PM we've ever had, all because of his missus. The country is hurtling towards zero carbon all because the Prime Minister wants to get his end away!

[Herman 9,838]

Are you still trying to push that one Rocky?!😀

[1902 1,167]

6 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Good analysis - and ironically, an 80-seat majority probably hastens the internal collapse.

Absolutely, it's an invitation to rebel without having to feel any real responsibility.

I wouldn't want to be a Tory whip in the next few months. Too many MPs to keep a good track of and nearly everyone on those backbenchers guilty of voting against the government on one thing or another during the last two parliaments.

Also the merry go round of leaders means the old threat of a rebellion meaning no chance of a ministerial post in the next election doesn't really carry any weight.

Edited December 28, 2021 by 1902

[A Load of Squit 5,223]

7 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Voters and the party faithful thought Johnson was a Conservative and that's why they voted for him, but since getting into office he has proven to be an old fashioned Liberal, occupying the centre ground. All the Prime Ministers since Thatcher, that is Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May and now Johnson have all governed from that same space, though the various factions, as 1902 describes well, have fought for control and influence over whoever the PM happened to be. Look at Johnson - the greenest PM we've ever had, all because of his missus. The country is hurtling towards zero carbon all because the Prime Minister wants to get his end away!

If Adolf Hitler was a socialist because it was in the name of his party then Johnson is a Conservative and RTB is an idiot.

[BigFish 1,988]

On 26/12/2021 at 09:54, 1902 said:

Truss has virtually none of the skills required to actually hold that Tory coalition together. Rock the boat has summed it up perfectly in many ways.

The social conservative and fiscally conservative part of the voting public is probably not as large as we may imagine, even amongst Tory voters, it does however dominate the membership.

Amongst people who vote Tory there's also a strong, small state, socially liberal section of the conservative voting block, especially in the South and South West. Then there's the more one nation Tories who are socially conservative and want spending. They are concentrated in the old red wall.

Truss can probably appeal to the first by her tilt to the ERG, but she probably can't reconsile that with the other two element as Boris did for about a year, partially because they are mutually exclusive and partly as the conservative party has very little political capital left in the bank for her to buy voter good will. She doesn't have Brexit as a banner to rally the party or voters around and she doesn't have the personality of Boris which kept him out of hot water for a while.

All political parties in first past the post systems tend towards internal instability after too much time in government or when they are doing very badly. The two party system basically ensures that they cannot remain ideologically coherent, and unless a party is winning easily, has an issue to rally around or is just united by a hatred of the previous administration they eventually collapse for a period of time until a new coalition is found.

 

11 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Voters and the party faithful thought Johnson was a Conservative and that's why they voted for him, but since getting into office he has proven to be an old fashioned Liberal, occupying the centre ground. All the Prime Ministers since Thatcher, that is Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May and now Johnson have all governed from that same space, though the various factions, as 1902 describes well, have fought for control and influence over whoever the PM happened to be. Look at Johnson - the greenest PM we've ever had, all because of his missus. The country is hurtling towards zero carbon all because the Prime Minister wants to get his end away!

While both this posts are not entirely disagreeable, they are mistaken about Conservatism. Conservatism's  raison d'etre is tradition, protecting and maintaining the status quo. It is about maintaining the establishment, its interests and its mores. Where change is necessary it should be small and incremental, not large and revolutionary. Electoral success is built on persuading the middle-class that it will protect its interest against risks, one of which was the aspirations of the working class. So there is nothing anti-Conservative about a big state as long as the spending is on traditional areas, the armed forces, police, £14billion to restore the Houses of Parliament anyone. Nothing anti-Conservative about high taxation as long as it is not progressive and on income rather than wealth. Nothing anti-Conservative about immigration as long as the immigrants comply with tradition (White, English that is).

As such Brexit is anti-Conservative, a severe rupture with the status quo. The electorate did not vote for Johnson because it thought he was Conservative. It voted for Johnson because he was a popularist English Nationalist. If Truss is elected she will fail, not because she cannot hold a fragile electoral coalition together but because grifters and entryists have destroyed what the Conservative Party was. It will be an inability to provide protection, or at least the pretense to protect the Middle class. It is said that oppositions don't win elections, government's lose them. Now it looks like the electorate have had enough and the next election is already lost for the Tories. While Covid plays a part, the irony is that the Brexit drag on the economy will do for them. Higher inflation, higher interest rates and slow growth are baked in for 2022. The local election is May will be a Tory bloodbath whatever they do now and that probably will be it for Johnson.

Edited December 28, 2021 by BigFish

[Yellow Fever 3,841]

1 hour ago, BigFish said:

 

While both this posts are not entirely disagreeable, they are mistaken about Conservatism. Conservatism's  raison d'etre is tradition, protecting and maintaining the status quo. It is about maintaining the establishment, its interests and its mores. Where change is necessary it should be small and incremental, not large and revolutionary. Electoral success is built on persuading the middle-class that it will protect its interest against risks, one of which was the aspirations of the working class. So there is nothing anti-Conservative about a big state as long as the spending is on traditional areas, the armed forces, police, £14billion to restore the Houses of Parliament anyone. Nothing anti-Conservative about high taxation as long as it is not progressive and on income rather than wealth. Nothing anti-Conservative about immigration as long as the immigrants comply with tradition (White, English that is).

As such Brexit is anti-Conservative, a severe rupture with the status quo. The electorate did not vote for Johnson because it thought he was Conservative. It voted for Johnson because he was a popularist English Nationalist. If Truss is elected she will fail, not because she cannot hold a fragile electoral coalition together but because grifters and entryists have destroyed what the Conservative Party was. It will be an inability to provide protection, or at least the pretense to protect the Middle class. It is said that oppositions don't win elections, government's lose them. Now it looks like the electorate have had enough and the next election is already lost for the Tories. While Covid plays a part, the irony is that the Brexit drag on the economy will do for them. Higher inflation, higher interest rates and slow growth are baked in for 2022. The local election is May will be a Tory bloodbath whatever they do now and that probably will be it for Johnson.

Quite agree BF.

Conservative is exactly what the name means and why they are called that - they 'conserve' the old - small careful don't scare the horses changes. The status quo.

'Brexit' is about as far from the 'Conservatives' as one could get.

 

 

[1902 1,167]

1 hour ago, BigFish said:

 

While both this posts are not entirely disagreeable, they are mistaken about Conservatism. Conservatism's  raison d'etre is tradition, protecting and maintaining the status quo. It is about maintaining the establishment, its interests and its mores. Where change is necessary it should be small and incremental, not large and revolutionary. Electoral success is built on persuading the middle-class that it will protect its interest against risks, one of which was the aspirations of the working class. So there is nothing anti-Conservative about a big state as long as the spending is on traditional areas, the armed forces, police, £14billion to restore the Houses of Parliament anyone. Nothing anti-Conservative about high taxation as long as it is not progressive and on income rather than wealth. Nothing anti-Conservative about immigration as long as the immigrants comply with tradition (White, English that is).

As such Brexit is anti-Conservative, a severe rupture with the status quo. The electorate did not vote for Johnson because it thought he was Conservative. It voted for Johnson because he was a popularist English Nationalist. If Truss is elected she will fail, not because she cannot hold a fragile electoral coalition together but because grifters and entryists have destroyed what the Conservative Party was. It will be an inability to provide protection, or at least the pretense to protect the Middle class. It is said that oppositions don't win elections, government's lose them. Now it looks like the electorate have had enough and the next election is already lost for the Tories. While Covid plays a part, the irony is that the Brexit drag on the economy will do for them. Higher inflation, higher interest rates and slow growth are baked in for 2022. The local election is May will be a Tory bloodbath whatever they do now and that probably will be it for Johnson.

Depends on if you are discussing the traditions of Burkean conservatism (Clearly neither Thatcherism or Brexit reflect this school of thought) or the make up of the party currently calling itself conservative.

I was referring purely to the party not the traditional political ideology, which I would argue has died to a large degree anyway Big Fish. 

I would however disagree with your belief that the Conservative parties issue is that it cannot protect the interests of the middle classes any longer, because those interests are fundamentally less monolithic than in previous periods. In terms of economic interests that are fundamentally aligned, underpinned by shared cultural trappings, the middle class has been dying a slow death.

Edited December 28, 2021 by 1902

[TheGunnShow 6,023]

2 hours ago, 1902 said:

Depends on if you are discussing the traditions of Burkean conservatism (Clearly neither Thatcherism or Brexit reflect this school of thought) or the make up of the party currently calling itself conservative.

I was referring purely to the party not the traditional political ideology, which I would argue has died to a large degree anyway Big Fish. 

I would however disagree with your belief that the Conservative parties issue is that it cannot protect the interests of the middle classes any longer, because those interests are fundamentally less monolithic than in previous periods. In terms of economic interests that are fundamentally aligned, underpinned by shared cultural trappings, the middle class has been dying a slow death.

The middle class has probably been dying a slow death due to ever lower taxation levels on the uppermost.

[1902 1,167]

11 minutes ago, TheGunnShow said:

The middle class has probably been dying a slow death due to ever lower taxation levels on the uppermost.

Thats just society in general that's suffering from that. One of the few things that unites 95% of us.

 

*Also, this is the first time I have retreated to the non football section mid game I think....

Edited December 28, 2021 by 1902

[TheGunnShow 6,023]

2 minutes ago, 1902 said:

Thats just society in general that's suffering from that. One of the few things that unites 95% of us.

 

*Also, this is the first time I have retreated to the non football section mid game I think....

I agree in principle, but would say that the reduced taxation on the uppermost is the major contributory factor.

[1902 1,167]

9 minutes ago, TheGunnShow said:

I agree in principle, but would say that the reduced taxation on the uppermost is the major contributory factor.

When they pay at all.

Edited December 28, 2021 by 1902

[BigFish 1,988]

3 hours ago, 1902 said:

I would however disagree with your belief that the Conservative parties issue is that it cannot protect the interests of the middle classes any longer, because those interests are fundamentally less monolithic than in previous periods. In terms of economic interests that are fundamentally aligned, underpinned by shared cultural trappings, the middle class has been dying a slow death.

Class consciousness is a declining indicator of voting intentions, I will give you, which in turns heaps more challenges on the Tories. To have voted for Thatcher the first time a voter would now need to be at least 60, our Universities are churning out increasing numbers of progressive voting young people while the Tory/Brexit core vote is literally dying out. That said there is a core of voters who voted Leave and for Johnson that now feel royally screwed. These are older property owning, white collar or skilled manual that have been called Worcester Woman, Mondeo Man, Middle Class of whatever you like  etc and are disproprtionally located in swing setas.

[PurpleCanary 5,587]

13 hours ago, Herman said:

Are you still trying to push that one Rocky?!😀

The only ideology or -ism Johnson ascribes to is Johnsonism. Which can best be described as solipsistic self-interestism. At any one point his actions might look as if they are inspired by Butskellite social-welfare consensus, or One-Nation Toryism, or nineteenth-century liberalism, or shop-soiled Thatcherism, but only by accident. The overriding motivation is always temporary and purely selfish and self-serving.

[BigFish 1,988]

13 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

The only ideology or -ism Johnson ascribes to is Johnsonism. Which can best be described as solipsistic self-interestism. At any one point his actions might look as if they are inspired by Butskellite social-welfare consensus, or One-Nation Toryism, or nineteenth-century liberalism, or shop-soiled Thatcherism, but only by accident. The overriding motivation is always temporary and purely selfish and self-serving.

True for Johnson, but there is a swivel eyed fanaticism amongst those within the Conservative Party he manipulated to put him in place. That won't change if he is replaced ahead of a GE and it is that, that will prevent the usual Conservative reinvention. In many ways he is an arch=Tory of the old school in that there is no policy he wouldn't drop to gain and maintain power. The Conservatives now resemble nothing more than the Labour Left in that political purity is the touchstone, they seriously believe that the electorate can be persuaded to get on board and they will therefore choose to lose rather than change.

[PurpleCanary 5,587]

15 minutes ago, BigFish said:

True for Johnson, but there is a swivel eyed fanaticism amongst those within the Conservative Party he manipulated to put him in place. That won't change if he is replaced ahead of a GE and it is that, that will prevent the usual Conservative reinvention. In many ways he is an arch=Tory of the old school in that there is no policy he wouldn't drop to gain and maintain power. The Conservatives now resemble nothing more than the Labour Left in that political purity is the touchstone, they seriously believe that the electorate can be persuaded to get on board and they will therefore choose to lose rather than change.

Yes.

[Nuff Said 5,179]

On 28/12/2021 at 16:40, TheGunnShow said:

The middle class has probably been dying a slow death due to ever lower taxation levels on the uppermost.

Don’t sociologist define class largely by education now? And middle class=higher education. Which would suggest the middle class is growing. Certainly the traditional working class, defined as manual (non-skilled) labour, is shrinking.

Edited December 29, 2021 by Nuff Said

[TheGunnShow 6,023]

6 minutes ago, Nuff Said said:

Don’t sociologist define class largely by education now? And middle class=higher education. Which would suggest the middle class is growing. Certainly the traditional working class, defined as manual (non-skilled) labour, is shrinking.

Quite possible, I was very much thinking in terms of income and indeed income inequality when I made those comments though.

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

8 hours ago, BigFish said:

True for Johnson, but there is a swivel eyed fanaticism amongst those within the Conservative Party he manipulated to put him in place. That won't change if he is replaced ahead of a GE and it is that, that will prevent the usual Conservative reinvention. In many ways he is an arch=Tory of the old school in that there is no policy he wouldn't drop to gain and maintain power. The Conservatives now resemble nothing more than the Labour Left in that political purity is the touchstone, they seriously believe that the electorate can be persuaded to get on board and they will therefore choose to lose rather than change.

There needs to be a recognition that the Conservative movement, much like the Labour and Lib Dems, is not a one-size fits all ideology but a set of competing factions, all trying to dominate the movement. Thatcher dominated the 1980s but she was brought down, not by the official opposition but by enemies within her own party. Johnson will not be defeated by Starmer but by those currently sitting in his Cabinet.

While I understood your post prior to this one, I'm a little confused where you say that Johnson is old school Tory 'in that there is no policy he would drop to gain and maintain power'. But in the next sentence you say that 'Conservatives....political purity is the touchstone'. Those two sentences seem at odds with one another unless you mean that Johnson is out of sync with the rest of his party? Or Johnson is not a true Conservative? Or am I misinterpreting you?

[Yellow Fever 3,841]

What does C in Johnson's Conservative party stand for these days ?

C is for Conservative, Clown, Calamity, Corruption, Cowardice, Cummings, Confusion, Catastrophic, Complacent, Conceited, Con, in-Competence & self-Centred.

I Could go on...  

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 hours ago, Nuff Said said:

Don’t sociologist define class largely by education now? And middle class=higher education. Which would suggest the middle class is growing. Certainly the traditional working class, defined as manual (non-skilled) labour, is shrinking.

Class was clearly defined at one time by the upper class having the means to define the other classes. And the grateful acceptance by many that they weren't working class but middle. Such as those who described themselves as professional.

While the upper class has largely settled down to open their stately homes to pay inheritance tax etc, there is a burgeoning class of those who believe they are middle class by their own definition.

So is the chap who wins £180M on the Euro lottery now middle class? Well he probably believes he is. Because of the assumption that money is the ingredient. But of course the real mark of it is power. Education has been mentioned. Not necessarily the education itself but where you were educated.

 

[SwindonCanary 455]

Truss did a good job in trade I hope she does the same in Brexit 

[A Load of Squit 5,223]

9 hours ago, SwindonCanary said:

Truss did a good job in trade I hope she does the same in Brexit 

You have a very strange idea of what a 'good job' is. If she was your manager you'd want her to be sacked.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deals-australia-new-zealand-b1959478.html

The tiny economic boost – amounting to just 0.01 to 0.02 per cent of GDP, and less than 50p per person a year – is dwarfed by the economic hit from leaving the EU.

[BigFish 1,988]

13 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

While I understood your post prior to this one, I'm a little confused where you say that Johnson is old school Tory 'in that there is no policy he would drop to gain and maintain power'. But in the next sentence you say that 'Conservatives....political purity is the touchstone'. Those two sentences seem at odds with one another unless you mean that Johnson is out of sync with the rest of his party? Or Johnson is not a true Conservative? Or am I misinterpreting you?

@Rock The Boat, My argument was more that the cabal that now controls the Conservative Party is out of sync with Conservatism, and what made Conservatism successful in the the 20th century. It is disruptive where Conservatism is conservationist, it is ideological where Conservatism is not, it believes in its policies while Conservatism happily compromises if something isn't working, it challenges the instituitions we have while Conservatism defends them.

It would be easy for Eton educated Johnson to personally adopt old school Conservatism, if this cabal did not exist. There is no Johnsonism, he has never expressed anything that looks like an ideology and he would happily adopt any policy or opinion, or drop one, if it kept him in power and the establishment was preserved. In sort he looks like an old school Tory. In contrast the cabal has a mass of red lines that cannot be crossed, compromises it cannot make and opponents it cannot co-opt. It is out of sync with Johnson, Conservatism and the electorate at large.

[BigFish 1,988]

11 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Class was clearly defined at one time by the upper class having the means to define the other classes. And the grateful acceptance by many that they weren't working class but middle. Such as those who described themselves as professional.

While the upper class has largely settled down to open their stately homes to pay inheritance tax etc, there is a burgeoning class of those who believe they are middle class by their own definition.

So is the chap who wins £180M on the Euro lottery now middle class? Well he probably believes he is. Because of the assumption that money is the ingredient. But of course the real mark of it is power. Education has been mentioned. Not necessarily the education itself but where you were educated.

One analogy that describes @keelansgrandad. A Upper class Times Reader, a middle class Daily Mail reader and a working class Sun Reader were having tea and biscuits. The waitress brings the tea and 12 biscuits. At once the Upper Class Times Reader reaches over and takes 11 of the biscuits. Before the other two can say anything he nudges the Daily Mail reader and says "you want to watch him" pointing at the working class Sun reader "he is after your biscuit".

[BigFish 1,988]

5 minutes ago, BigFish said:

One analogy that describes @keelansgrandad. A Upper class Times Reader, a middle class Daily Mail reader and a working class Sun Reader were having tea and biscuits. The waitress brings the tea and 12 biscuits. At once the Upper Class Times Reader reaches over and takes 11 of the biscuits. Before the other two can say anything he nudges the Daily Mail reader and says "you want to watch him" pointing at the working class Sun reader "he is after your biscuit".

And if to illustrate the point.....

 

 

[A Load of Squit 5,223]

Here she is in 1994 when she was a Liberal Democrat agreeing with Paddy Ashdown that the country should abolish the Monarchy. 😲

 

[Herman 9,838]

10 hours ago, SwindonCanary said:

Truss did a good job in trade I hope she does the same in Brexit 

A few examples of trade.

The mutual benefit. For example one side has loads of coal while the other has loads of iron ore. A deal can be made so both sides can make iron.

The speculate to accumulate. An investment for the long term. A little bit riskier but still ok.

The Liz Truss. A deal so bad that it actually harms your own side.

One of these is a sackable offence. Guess which one??