When will the UK rejoin the EU?

[Yellow Fever 3,816]

6 minutes ago, Badger said:

Which European countries are these?

Russia is one, now tell me the rest...

Thanks Badger - I didn't think I needed to it point out the obvious to LYB in my original comment.

As an aside - I find the older Brexiteers surprisingly similar in outlook to older Russians/soviets. Both looking back with rose-tinted glasses to earlier 'simpler' times.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/19/tories-brexit-britain-voter-demographics-leave-eu

Edited June 20, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[littleyellowbirdie 2,571]

21 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Thanks Badger - I didn't think I needed to it point out the obvious to LYB in my original comment.

As an aside - I find the older Brexiteers surprisingly similar in outlook to older Russians/soviets. Both looking back with rose-tinted glasses to earlier 'simpler' times.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/19/tories-brexit-britain-voter-demographics-leave-eu

Likening the UK to Russia is pretty daft for two reasons:

1)The UK's bilateral agreements with the EFTA and the EU are far more comprehensive than the EU's agreement with Russia

2)Russia is currently subject to extensive trade sanctions from the EU, which the UK is not, nor is it ever likely to be. 

Edited June 20, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[Yellow Fever 3,816]

25 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Likening the UK to Russia is pretty daft for two reasons:

1)The UK's bilateral agreements with the EFTA and the EU are far more comprehensive than the EU's agreement with Russia

2)Russia is currently subject to extensive trade sanctions from the EU, which the UK is not, nor is it ever likely to be. 

The comment was the 'older' Russians who look back fondly on Soviet times.

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[Badger 2,407]

42 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

So what? With the exception of Schengen, these are trade agreements

Good - you knew more than I expected! Now let's follow it from here:

1. Trade agreements make it easier to sell your goods abroad

2. This increases wealth and living standards

3. Not having trade agreements does the reverse - it makes it harder to trade.

This is why countries try to "punish" countries for offences like Russia's by imposing economic sanctions which make trade harder - because it will reduce their wealth and living standards.

The West have imposed sanctions on Russia but we have unilaterally imposed sanctions on ourselves! But we do have blue passports...

Hopefully you will understand know.

[Badger 2,407]

47 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

As an aside - I find the older Brexiteers surprisingly similar in outlook to older Russians/soviets. Both looking back with rose-tinted glasses to earlier 'simpler' times.

Yes - there are many similarities between pro-Putin Russians and ultra Nationalists in the UK.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 hours ago, dj11 said:

I find much of the language used around asylum seekers very depressing. Have we forgotten they are human beings and the same species as ourselves?

Only if they are Ukranian. Apparently the Northeners don't like anything other than white refugees. Its why they voted for Brexit.

[benchwarmer 625]

4 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Russia is currently subject to extensive trade sanctions from the EU, which the UK is not, nor is it ever likely to be. 

The way things are going, I wouldn't bank on it.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,571]

8 minutes ago, benchwarmer said:

The way things are going, I wouldn't bank on it.

Seriously? You genuinely equate a dispute over customs arrangements to an illegal invasion of a neighbouring country?

[Badger 2,407]

9 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Seriously? You genuinely equate a dispute over customs arrangements to an illegal invasion of a neighbouring country?

I wouldn't equate it in moral terms but they are both illegal.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,571]

2 minutes ago, Badger said:

I wouldn't equate it in moral terms but they are both illegal.

What's legal and illegal with regard to disputes over the NI protocol is a matter of debate that's not the subject of any rulings at this stage.

[Yellow Fever 3,816]

15 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Seriously? You genuinely equate a dispute over customs arrangements to an illegal invasion of a neighbouring country?

Can't you see the comical irony in BWs comment?

The hint is that the EU may well end up in a trade war with the UK  - and then may impose punitive sanctions.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,571]

8 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Can't you see the comical irony in BWs comment?

The hint is that the EU may well end up in a trade war with the UK  - and then may impose punitive sanctions.

So give up sending all goods via France and send them through NI into Ireland instead to go to the EU via the Republic of Ireland. What's it going to do? Put a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic? The Republic will veto. Check goods between the Republic and the continent? Same again.

Edited June 20, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[Badger 2,407]

2 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

So give up sending all goods via France and send them through NI into Ireland instead to go to the EU via the Republic of Ireland. What's it going to do? Put a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic? The Republic will veto. Check goods between the Republic and the continent? Same again.

Decide that the so called Deal with the UK is not worth the paper it is written on and apply tariffs to UK goods.

It won't come to this though: Johnson will be long gone before this happens.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,571]

6 minutes ago, Badger said:

Decide that the so called Deal with the UK is not worth the paper it is written on and apply tariffs to UK goods.

It won't come to this though: Johnson will be long gone before this happens.

That was my point: If the EU wants to do that then it has to enforce checks, which we can bypass by using the lack of customs checks between NI and the Republic.

Whether Johnson's PM or not, the NI power sharing agreement will remain broken until something happens to satisfy the unionists.

Edited June 20, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[Yellow Fever 3,816]

58 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

So give up sending all goods via France and send them through NI into Ireland instead to go to the EU via the Republic of Ireland. What's it going to do? Put a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic? The Republic will veto. Check goods between the Republic and the continent? Same again.

Obviously you can't see the funny side of BWs comment. 

You're coming across a very 'square'. Don't take all comments too literally or seriously. It was just funny and worthy of a 'like' without over analysis.

Edited June 20, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[Herman 9,817]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Can't you see the comical irony in BWs comment?

The hint is that the EU may well end up in a trade war with the UK  - and then may impose punitive sanctions.

Looking at some of the FT analysis sanctions won't be necessary. Just let us carry on as we are.🤨

 

[Badger 2,407]

1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

That was my point: If the EU wants to do that then it has to enforce checks, which we can bypass by using the lack of customs checks between NI and the Republic.

Whether Johnson's PM or not, the NI power sharing agreement will remain broken until something happens to satisfy the unionists.

We won't be able to by pass the checks for our trade with the EU by going through Ireland.  There is nowhere near the capacity in the infrastructure to do this - it would make the delays at Dover seem trivial. Firms would be better off losing the trade or paying the tariffs as it would add massively to their costs. In any case, the destination data on the paperwork that has to be completed now would make it pretty obvious what was going on.

I agree with you re the Unionists and power sharing - unless further elections are called and the result changes. The "Deal" that Johnson proclaimed is falling apart at the seams - it is difficult to see how it can be squared and we are back to the same place that we were during 2019: TM's deal, Customs Union/ Single Market or WTO terms.

[duke63 545]

5 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Only if they are Ukranian. Apparently the Northeners don't like anything other than white refugees. Its why they voted for Brexit.

Wait til climate change starts displacing millions then.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-61670666

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,571]

16 minutes ago, Badger said:

We won't be able to by pass the checks for our trade with the EU by going through Ireland.  There is nowhere near the capacity in the infrastructure to do this - it would make the delays at Dover seem trivial. Firms would be better off losing the trade or paying the tariffs as it would add massively to their costs. In any case, the destination data on the paperwork that has to be completed now would make it pretty obvious what was going on.

I agree with you re the Unionists and power sharing - unless further elections are called and the result changes. The "Deal" that Johnson proclaimed is falling apart at the seams - it is difficult to see how it can be squared and we are back to the same place that we were during 2019: TM's deal, Customs Union/ Single Market or WTO terms.

Capacity for ferries from Ireland to the continent jumped sharply following the end of transition arrangements, enough to account for 50% of Irish traffic over the UK land bridge from before the end of the transition arrangement. If the demand is there, supply will appear to meet it. 

At the same time though, Irish industry is keen to keep the UK land bridge alive in the event of severe weather, so there's really major deterrents to the EU going totally nuclear over the NI dispute. 

https://www.thejournal.ie/less-landbridge-mroe-action-how-irish-trade-changes-5356884-Mar2021/

Edited June 20, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[KernowCanary 214]

When England beat Germany at Euro 2020/21, it was seen as a war victory rather than just 11 very overpaid men who have nothing else to do but managing to get a ball in a net.

Supporters saw themselves as victorious war heroes when all they did was shout a lot, sing racist/xenophobic songs, keep on with “God Save the Queen” renditions, boo through the whole game, got drunk and abused a child. Most probably not a single brain cell amongst them to know what Schadefrude is when the final came along. As soon as she flashed up on the big screen, the England fans all cheered and I knew from that moment all the racist **** was going to kick off from there on in.

What I am saying, is that England’s supporters had an opportunity to prove to the world Brexit wasn’t pedalled on racism, yet there they were booing the national anthems of the other teams, bringing up World War Two for no reason, singing about German bombers and adding “We voted Leave” to their disgusting repotire.

They had a chance to prove the rest of the world wrong, yet blew it and it wasn’t just that but also their behaviour before the gates opened.

 

[Badger 2,407]

1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Capacity for ferries from Ireland to the continent jumped sharply following the end of transition arrangements, enough to account for 50% of Irish traffic over the UK land bridge from before the end of the transition arrangement. If the demand is there, supply will appear to meet it. 

At the same time though, Irish industry is keen to keep the UK land bridge alive in the event of severe weather, so there's really major deterrents to the EU going totally nuclear over the NI dispute. 

https://www.thejournal.ie/less-landbridge-mroe-action-how-irish-trade-changes-5356884-Mar2021/

I'm not sure if I follow you. The article shows how the Irish republic is establishing direct links with the EU to avoid having to go through Britain because of the problems created by Brexit.

I don't see how this creates any deterrence for the EU at all? In fact, quite the reverse: it is showing how Britain is being by-passed and a less important partner for the Irish Republic - as you say we are becoming a "back up route" rather than the primary option. 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,189]

1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Capacity for ferries from Ireland to the continent jumped sharply following the end of transition arrangements, enough to account for 50% of Irish traffic over the UK land bridge from before the end of the transition arrangement. If the demand is there, supply will appear to meet it. 

At the same time though, Irish industry is keen to keep the UK land bridge alive in the event of severe weather, so there's really major deterrents to the EU going totally nuclear over the NI dispute. 

https://www.thejournal.ie/less-landbridge-mroe-action-how-irish-trade-changes-5356884-Mar2021/

What about fresh produce?

Hardly going to want to send that to mainland Europe via Ireland 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, duke63 said:

Wait til climate change starts displacing millions then.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-61670666

 

No good sending anyone to Norfolk. It will be flooded soon. Then everyone will have to move in with all those Northern philan, sorry, misanthropes.

[Badger 2,407]

Just now, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

What about fresh produce?

Hardly going to want to send that to mainland Europe via Ireland 

The whole idea is ridiculous!

The idea that all the infrastructure roads/ ports etc that has been built up over 40+ years to facilitate trade with the EU mainly from the South East (but also other Eastern ports) can be redirected to the Northwest, over to Northern Ireland and then through to the Irish republic and via there to France is a work of comic genius. It must be firmly tongue-in-cheek! 😀

[littleyellowbirdie 2,571]

10 minutes ago, Badger said:

The whole idea is ridiculous!

The idea that all the infrastructure roads/ ports etc that has been built up over 40+ years to facilitate trade with the EU mainly from the South East (but also other Eastern ports) can be redirected to the Northwest, over to Northern Ireland and then through to the Irish republic and via there to France is a work of comic genius. It must be firmly tongue-in-cheek! 😀

Liverpool is a major city with good road connections to the rest of the country; Produce from the continent to NI is already bypassing the UK and is being transported on long haul ferries to the republic and up to the North, so the routes are already established. That's even with the FTA in place, so if the EU really did want to make things difficult, then rerouting to go via Ireland is absolutely a viable workaround if the EU really was making things difficult as far as Dover Calais was concerned. 

https://hannontransport.com/2021/02/10/brexit-challenges-serving-the-irish-food-and-horticultural-markets/

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,189]

14 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Liverpool is a major city with good road connections to the rest of the country; Produce from the continent to NI is already bypassing the UK and is being transported on long haul ferries to the republic and up to the North, so the routes are already established. That's even with the FTA in place, so if the EU really did want to make things difficult, then rerouting to go via Ireland is absolutely a viable workaround if the EU really was making things difficult as far as Dover Calais was concerned. 

https://hannontransport.com/2021/02/10/brexit-challenges-serving-the-irish-food-and-horticultural-markets/

That link refers to mainland Europe supplying Ireland, not GB supplying mainland Europe via Ireland!

[littleyellowbirdie 2,571]

13 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

That link refers to mainland Europe supplying Ireland, not GB supplying mainland Europe via Ireland!

8 hour ferry from liverpool to belfast, 5 hours by road from Belfast to Cork, 13 hours from cork to roscoff. That's 26 hours in total. Spain to Estonia takes 39 hours by road, but I bet you can buy Spanish oranges in Estonia. 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,189]

25 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

8 hour ferry from liverpool to belfast, 5 hours by road from Belfast to Cork, 13 hours from cork to roscoff. That's 26 hours in total. Spain to Estonia takes 39 hours by road, but I bet you can buy Spanish oranges in Estonia. 

You forgot the time to get to Liverpool 

And the time to get to Estonia 

And all the búggeration of queuing up at ports

And the additional costs of sending things to the continent via a roundabout route 

And that some of our fresh produce, like fresh fish, needs to be with the  customer within a certain time period 

I'm good with Brexit, I now want to see what we were promised, a free trade agreement with the EU that is the easiest deal in history. 

Edited June 20, 2022 by How I Wrote Elastic Man
Swear filter, again

[littleyellowbirdie 2,571]

11 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

You forgot the time to get to Liverpool 

And the time to get to Estonia 

And all the búggeration of queuing up at ports

And the additional costs of sending things to the continent via a roundabout route 

And that some of our fresh produce, like fresh fish, needs to be with the  customer within a certain time period 

I'm good with Brexit, I now want to see what we were promised, a free trade agreement with the EU that is the easiest deal in history. 

Kent to liverpool is 4 hours 31 minutes. That's the longest. The time to get to Estonia would be no longer once on the continent anyway. Obviously, this would only be a consideration in the event that the EU got really difficult about transporting stuff directly to the continent. 

As to 'I'm good with Brexit, I now want to see what we were promised, a free trade agreement with the EU that is the easiest deal in history.'... I'd like to see an end to really boring facetious remarks, but we don't always get what we want in life, sadly. 

Edited June 20, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[Creative Midfielder 2,000]

On 20/06/2022 at 06:08, dylanisabaddog said:

Going back to the point of the original post, the answer looks like about 2040/2045. As Creative Midfielder has said quite politely, a huge chunk of Brexiteers will be dead by then to be replaced on the Electoral Roll by people who don't look back fondly at winning the war. Simple mathematics suggests that by then the vote to rejoin will be 70/30.

It is a case of 'when' not 'if'. 

I think that's about right - more slowly than I originally hoped but given where we are at the moment............!

Suspect there may well be an intermediate step(s) prior to us becoming full members again, a sensible trade deal would be a good start. Obviously nothing is going to progress until we firstly get rid of Johnson and secondly replace the Tory government altogther. But if we could get back into (or very close to) the Single Market by 2030/35 then that would solve many of our current problems, and 2040/45 wouldn't seem quite so far away.

 

Edited June 21, 2022 by Creative Midfielder