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Yellow Fever

The Brexit Thread (reprise)

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4 hours ago, BigFish said:

Torygraph softening up its readers for the collapse of Brexit Deal talks. Apparently the EU needs to back down. Who would have thought?

Britain close to abandoning hope of Brexit trade deal

From the FT:

The UK government has abandoned hopes of reaching a trade deal with America ahead of the US presidential election in November, with British officials blaming the Covid-19 pandemic for slow progress.

Of course the pandemic claim is a convenient excuse. The reality is there was never going to be a trade deal with the US done that quickly.

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23 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6?r=US&IR=T

A newly released survey found just 35% of British people supporting Brexit, with 57% wanting to rejoin the European Union.

Don't think the figures themselves are so surprising but it does make you wonder when people changed their minds and what it took for them to wake up to the reality of Brexit - surely it must be something more than suddenly realising that Johnson has been lying to them all the way through this shambles!!???

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2 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

ūüėā Yes indeed, its been pretty clear from the start that Johnson and Cummings never had any genuine intention of striking a deal and very unusually for this utterly inept government this appears to be one (and only) area that is going to plan.

Just a pity that they still can't break the habit of lying all the time - they could have told the truth and given themselves, businesses, in fact everyone a year to prepare for trading under WTO rules but instead we are going to end up with another almighty shambles in the UK because the UK Government isn't going to be ready, the UK Border Force isn't going to be ready, nor UK businesses or even UK holidaymakers!

Come Jan 1st 2021 only the EU will be ready to work with the new relationship, or more accurately the lack of one, and we will be landed with another huge dollop of self-inflicted grief. We really have become the stupid country.

You think the government will allow things to continue as they are, in regard to post Jan 1st ?

They have already backed down over customs checks on imported goods, and if all the measures required are miraculously put in place in matter of months they will still not stop hold up and blockages.

The current infrastructure at Dover has evolved to process frictionless traffic. That means a constant flow of lorries to ensure the most efficient use of the ferries, tunnel and time, Any delay cannot be reclaimed, as there is not the extra capacity to bring on stream nor the low number periods to allow 'catch up'.

The idea that a government, even as stupid as this, would allow such system with a built-in failure to go ahead  is stretching things. As that requires that the government has to take the flak from a catastrophe of enormous magnitude happening ...... which they knowingly allowed to proceed.

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We agree on many things Bill, but not on this one. The chaos is the point, they don’t want a workable solution..... as long as they control the media there will always be someone else to blame. Meantime they can pass whatever they want to while everyone is distracted. Same as here in the US (until January 2021 anyway) 

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38 minutes ago, Bill said:

You think the government will allow things to continue as they are, in regard to post Jan 1st ?

They have already backed down over customs checks on imported goods, and if all the measures required are miraculously put in place in matter of months they will still not stop hold up and blockages.

The current infrastructure at Dover has evolved to process frictionless traffic. That means a constant flow of lorries to ensure the most efficient use of the ferries, tunnel and time, Any delay cannot be reclaimed, as there is not the extra capacity to bring on stream nor the low number periods to allow 'catch up'.

The idea that a government, even as stupid as this, would allow such system with a built-in failure to go ahead  is stretching things. As that requires that the government has to take the flak from a catastrophe of enormous magnitude happening ...... which they knowingly allowed to proceed.

I mostly agree with what you are saying and it would be mind-booglingly stupid for them to carry on their current course.

But having said that they appear to have no Plan B and actually very few options left. The EU, unsurprisingly, are not going to bail the UK out - they know probably even better than our utterly stupid government what a deep hole we are in and we really have no cards left to play, especially this week after the EU recovery package has been agreed unanimously by the 27 contrary to most peoples' expectations.

Any chance of an extension is gone, so the only thing that can happen before the end of the year is that Johnson caves (as he did last year over Northernr Ireland)  andgives the EU exactly what they have asked for, and even that will only get the UK are very basic trade deal, possibly tariff free but with plenty of friction at the borders and nothing at all for services.

So I'm not saying it will definitely happen but I do believe that it is quite possible that this government are too stupid and too arrogant to back down and that we will crash out with nothing (or as close to it as makes no difference) on 31st December.

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8 minutes ago, Surfer said:

We agree on many things Bill, but not on this one. The chaos is the point, they don’t want a workable solution..... as long as they control the media there will always be someone else to blame. Meantime they can pass whatever they want to while everyone is distracted. Same as here in the US (until January 2021 anyway) 

I fail to see how any media can distract from blocked ports, shortage of foods and medicine, travellers stuck in customs and factories stopped through lack of ''just in time' parts.

I would disagree that this is any actual plan.... merely a muddled shambles caused by a lack of grasp of how trade and politics works..............

caused by the most incompetent PM the country has ever had

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1 minute ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Any chance of an extension is gone

au contraire, that is still an available option - as the EU has stated 'where there is a will..............'

however that raises two problems

one being how does Johnson et al present this as it not being their fault

and what would the extension lead to, as the current stand off is the UK wanting to weasel out of what it agreed, if the can't now then all any extension would do delay the inevitable

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10 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Any chance of an extension is gone

 

3 minutes ago, Bill said:

au contraire, that is still an available option - as the EU has stated 'where there is a will..............'

however that raises two problems

one being how does Johnson et al present this as it not being their fault

and what would the extension lead to, as the current stand off is the UK wanting to weasel out of what it agreed, if the can't now then all any extension would do delay the inevitable

I think that was a rather generic statement about the deal not a suggestion that extension was still possible - I could be wrong on this but my understanding is that it is part of the legal text of the agreement that an extension was only possible by agreement on both sides by end of June. That hasn't happened and I don't believe that agreement can be revisited, nor is there any reason to think the EU would agree to an extension even if there was a way - some EU leaders, viz Macron, you will recall were extremely unhappy at granting extensions last year.

And as you say, what would an extension achieve even if a way was found - the only benefit I can see would be to allow more time to prepare for WTO. Very useful certainly but important enough to this government for it to do a massive climbdown??

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"Though all four options are politically sensitive or legally complex, the UK and EU could:

  • Amend the end date of the transition period in the Withdrawal Agreement

    This could in theory be done at any point after June. But it would almost certainly require the European Court of Justice to give a legal opinion first.

  • Create a new transition period to begin on 1 January 2021

    This would mean striking a new, complex agreement and a lengthy ratification process, alongside future relationship negotiations.

  • Include an implementation phase as part of the future relationship treaty

    This would give businesses time to make investment decisions and adapt supply chains.

  • Create an implementation phase to prepare for a potential no-deal exit

    Agree a temporary deal to allow traders to adapt to a no-deal scenario in the event that talks break down."

  • https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/implementing-brexit-securing-more-time

 

it is not so much the actus reus as the mens rea (as m'learned friends would have) that is the key point. If there is common intent from both parties then a way will be found. After all. what is standing in their way is law. Which can be quickly replaced/removed when there is a wish to do so.

However, were any further extension to be agreed... simply building the infrastructure and software systems will not eradicate the fundamental flaw in brexit ie leaving the Single Market/Customs Union means you lose the benefits of membership - one being frictionless trade, another then being subject to all tariffs and quotas that follow.

The UK has painted itself into a corner by believing that they were so necessary to the EU that it would allow vastly different and beneficial rules for a non member, than they do for a member

 

It was always a stupid thought, However that it  it being so stupid, was easy for stupid people to fall for

 That the UK can jump ship in the middle of the ocean and hope to swim to the next port quicker, rather than stay on board.

There is no half way house, part pregnant or soft (in the head) brexit

And recent polling suggests folk are finally realising the implications of 'going it alone' ie swimming

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"While there is no legal basis for extending the current Brexit transition period, since the deadline to do so expired last month, some constitutional experts have suggested ways in which the UK and EU might stay tied together economically for longer using new agreements. "

sounds a bit too much like brexit not happening.... who would have thought that ūüėČ

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/downing-street-brexit-trade-deal-eu-michel-barnier-boris-johnson-a9632716.html

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Was anyone else expecting more noise from the RWNJs about the Russia report? Do you think it is slowly dawning on them?

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What the thickos were told

"Donald Trump has promised to sign a trade deal with Britain "very very quickly" as he told Theresa May: "There is no country that could possibly be closer than our countries." Mr Trump said: "We will do a very big deal, a very powerful deal. Trade will be a big factor between our two countries." 8th July 2017

Last September government officials told The Sun newspaper that a deal would be wrapped up by July 2020. ‚ÄúThe political will is there now on both sides to do the deal by July,‚ÄĚ one said at the time. ‚ÄúIt‚Äôs a great win for us.‚ÄĚ

However it should come to no surprise to non brexit thickos, that

"The UK government has abandoned hopes of reaching a trade deal with America ahead of the US presidential election in November,. "

Senior government figures have concluded that no comprehensive deal is possible before the November US poll as the two sides grapple over contentious issues such as whether to allow US agricultural products into the UK market. "

"He said it was ‚Äúpie in the sky‚ÄĚ to have ever thought the two sides could reach a rapid deal ‚ÄĒ unless the UK conceded to Washington on everything from agriculture and scrapping its digital sales tax, to giving the US what it wanted on pharmaceutical patents and procurement. " FT 22nd July 2020

So where does that leave the UK ?

Trading with the US under WTO rules ..... ye gods !

Any deal has to go through Congress, and with the certainty that it will be a Democratic congress free of the lunacy of Trump, their mind will be fixed on restoring trading relations with the bigger countries and trading blocs.... not the far smaller UK.

Still, there's always Liam Fox's 40 new deals ūü§£

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Bill said:

I fail to see how any media can distract from blocked ports, shortage of foods and medicine, travellers stuck in customs and factories stopped through lack of ''just in time' parts.

I would disagree that this is any actual plan.... merely a muddled shambles caused by a lack of grasp of how trade and politics works..............

caused by the most incompetent PM the country has ever had

The evidence though is in front of our faces Bill. The Tories don't have to go to the electorate for another 4 years. So within that timeframe they can do whatever they want. And coming back to the Russia report, we need to understand who it is that is paying them to do what they do. Let's assume it is Russia for a moment. Putin's playbook is to create chaos. It does not matter if the people believe the Government, it only matters that the people do not trust anyone. In that vacuum of trust the Government can both create chaos and be the defender of law and order. The exact playbook Donald Trump is using in Portland at the moment. His issue though is that there IS an election coming in a few months, and tear gassing mothers is bad optics.  

But let's assume the Russian's are not paying the Tories. Then who is? And what do they want? Because then we can have a fair idea of what will happen. Trashing environmental and employment and taxation regulations all fits very nicely to the same RWNJ's that operate here in the US and that also links to Middle  East oil monies. 

We should not assume these Tories are dumb or incompetent. There are some very sick political animals acting as a "useful idiots" as a front for people who know what they want and see the destruction of any sense of competent government to be to their advantage.  

Farage, Cummings, Bannon, these are dangerous people, the people behind them are much worse. Labour will be the only ones that can resolve this for the country, so I am hopeful Starmer sticks the knife in soon. 

 

 

 

Edited by Surfer

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Posted (edited)

Well done ūüĎ欆And this doesn‚Äôt even include the Covid-19 response.

FA6B94A7-E014-4683-B295-D0A3F04DE61D.png

Edited by Mr Angry

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2 hours ago, Bill said:

"Though all four options are politically sensitive or legally complex, the UK and EU could:

  • Amend the end date of the transition period in the Withdrawal Agreement

    This could in theory be done at any point after June. But it would almost certainly require the European Court of Justice to give a legal opinion first.

  • Create a new transition period to begin on 1 January 2021

    This would mean striking a new, complex agreement and a lengthy ratification process, alongside future relationship negotiations.

  • Include an implementation phase as part of the future relationship treaty

    This would give businesses time to make investment decisions and adapt supply chains.

  • Create an implementation phase to prepare for a potential no-deal exit

    Agree a temporary deal to allow traders to adapt to a no-deal scenario in the event that talks break down."

  • https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/implementing-brexit-securing-more-time

Yes, fair enough I have seen similar reports but I would say that whilst I am no expert they appear intuitively pretty unlikely.

Whilst the commentaries I have read from people who are experts seem to be saying that whilst these may be theoretical possibilities it is very unlikely that they are practical propositions in the current situation but who knows....

The other big question is whether there is any common will at all - I don't doubt that at the start of the process the EU hoped, perhaps even believed, that a deal would be reached but I think that they moved beyond that a while ago. They, like us, now have another massive issue to handle - trying to trigger an economic recovery from the worst depression any of us have ever seen. They are already moving on this much more quickly than the UK (and also directing much more attention towards climate change agenda than the UK) - Brexit is now a much lower priority for them and IMO they are already accepting that they will take an economic hit with a no deal Brexit but it will be relatively small, and the very last thing they want is any further prolongation or uncertainty over our departure. I don't believe for a minute that any of those four options would be supported by the EU even if the UK did undergo a last minute change of heart.

Quite prepared to be proved wrong but that is the way I see it at the moment.

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36 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Yes, fair enough I have seen similar reports but I would say that whilst I am no expert they appear intuitively pretty unlikely.

Whilst the commentaries I have read from people who are experts seem to be saying that whilst these may be theoretical possibilities it is very unlikely that they are practical propositions in the current situation but who knows....

The other big question is whether there is any common will at all - I don't doubt that at the start of the process the EU hoped, perhaps even believed, that a deal would be reached but I think that they moved beyond that a while ago. They, like us, now have another massive issue to handle - trying to trigger an economic recovery from the worst depression any of us have ever seen. They are already moving on this much more quickly than the UK (and also directing much more attention towards climate change agenda than the UK) - Brexit is now a much lower priority for them and IMO they are already accepting that they will take an economic hit with a no deal Brexit but it will be relatively small, and the very last thing they want is any further prolongation or uncertainty over our departure. I don't believe for a minute that any of those four options would be supported by the EU even if the UK did undergo a last minute change of heart.

Quite prepared to be proved wrong but that is the way I see it at the moment.

That chimes with what I've read, with the caveat that these experts usually conclude by saying no-one can be sure of anything. But some of the supposed solutions seemingly would depend either on a unanimous vote of all 27 EU countries or all 27 plus some of the regions.

And I agree that the mood in the EU generally would be against prolonging this and even if it wasn't I very much doubt there would be unanimity in favour. It took a great deal of effort to cement a deal on the covid rescue package, and I don't see the major players in the EU jeopardising that with a potentially divisive extension. I think my bet on no extension is looking good.

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Taking in consideration of both comments my thought still is that 'where there is a will, there is a way'.

My other thought being that the EU may consider it not worth the while given how it will be the UK that will suffer by far the worse fate, and if it just means facing the same impasse in a years time then to what real purpose ?

But as Prince Charles now has, never say die - and there is still much more to come out which I suspect will see an open recognition of what needs to be done. The virus may well turn out to be a face saver.

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1 hour ago, PurpleCanary said:

That chimes with what I've read, with the caveat that these experts usually conclude by saying no-one can be sure of anything. But some of the supposed solutions seemingly would depend either on a unanimous vote of all 27 EU countries or all 27 plus some of the regions.

And I agree that the mood in the EU generally would be against prolonging this and even if it wasn't I very much doubt there would be unanimity in favour. It took a great deal of effort to cement a deal on the covid rescue package, and I don't see the major players in the EU jeopardising that with a potentially divisive extension. I think my bet on no extension is looking good.

Unless Johnson capitulates we will be on WTO terms next year.  A lot has been said how Covid will allow many of the UK's Brexit issues to be disguised in the mayhem but it's even more true for the EU. They have far bigger fish to fry than a basket case UK so I expect they'll quite happily now just let us get on with it and watch the train wreck from a distance. It will be a useful experiment and example for all - a cathartic experience for many.

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Liam Fox

"He also suggested that the UK could be granted a second Brexit transition phase.

Speaking at the WTO headquarters, the former international trade secretary indicated that the Geneva-based body could oversee another transition period if the UK and the EU agree a new trading relationship this year.

"We have what are known as differential treatments here which often allow countries who have a clear destination time to adapt to those changes," Dr Fox told BBC Newsnight.

"I think that everything should be done by the rules and there are a number of precedents set here for transitions, there are a number of precedents set here for differential treatments. That is a matter for the officials here."

A transition, overseen by the WTO, would be different to the current Brexit transition. That involves full UK participation in the EU without a vote.

Dr Fox indicated that a second transition could be used to allow a phasing in of new border arrangements between Britain and the EU which has been proposed by Michael Gove." 17th July 2020

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53452120

 

How odd, why would he be saying that I wonder ?

 

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On 21/07/2020 at 12:32, Creative Midfielder said:

Better than being a useless idiot, I suppose and that is as polite as I can get about youūüėÄ

But nowhere do I suggest that China is a threat that should be ignored - that would be foolish in the extreme.

But it is very clear that our Government has completely ignored, in fact now we know they 'actively avoided' investigating and combating. direct Russian intervention in our democracy which has already been established as having taken place, so they clearly have no interest in stopping it in the future either.

Contrast that with the Huawei scenario where we have a situation where Trump has manufactured a supposed security threat backed with absolutely zero evidence to try an exclude a company whose technology, in the field of mobile comms, is 4-5 years ahead of US companies. Our own security services who have direct access to Huawei code/firmware and their engineers have also validated the kit as containing no security threat whatsoever. 

We already know that the facts and the truth don't matter to our government, or of course to you, these two little scenarios are just another illustration. But this lack of interest in reality is one of the reasons, although I'm sure there are many others, that you remain a useless idiot.

Chinese technology is not streets ahead of UK/European technology as you claim. China has stolen lots of western technologies, copied western technologies and have factories full of western machine tooling. But they are only good for assembly work using cheep unskilled labour. Research how much they have stolen from the US. 

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9 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

All Brexiteers were beaming you tool

Shush, RtB --- I'm pretty sure Herminge didn't realise that Tw@tter post was from 2016 ūüėÄ

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Posted (edited)

It clearly says it's from 2016. That's the point. 

 

Edited by Herman

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14 Conservative ministers taking donations from Russian sources. Very vigilant Mr Johnson. 

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7 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

All Brexiteers were beaming you tool

The vast majority weren't collapsing the pound for their own personal advantage. 

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10 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Chinese technology is not streets ahead of UK/European technology as you claim. China has stolen lots of western technologies, copied western technologies and have factories full of western machine tooling. But they are only good for assembly work using cheep unskilled labour. Research how much they have stolen from the US. 

Please try and live in the present.

Sure China (like Japan, South Korea and others before it) a few decades ago 'industrialized' making cheap copies, plastic toys and the like but today is not generally some 'backward' cheap labour sweatshop (yes they have their own Leicester's too) but a modern growing economy. Indeed they have their own problems similar to us of jobs leaving for cheaper economies such a Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and the like (with the cheap plastic toys).

However, even ignoring the obvious global leaders like it or not such as such as Huawei, the cheap solar panels that have crashed the price of renewables, their 'Nuclear' industry (see Hinkley) or even the Chinese Space programme (I suspect they'll be back on the moon to stay before the Yanks) it should still be obvious that a country with 1.4Bn people, many extremely well educated (and most of which are outright entrepreneurs) will have huge numbers of Ph.Ds in any science or technology you care to mention - probably 100 for every one of 'ours' in the UK (as is my experience).

Yes - be afraid - be terrified (I am when when I lecture/visit there) as if you (or 'us') can keep up with their pace of development and change let alone all the very bright 20 year olds. They simply have huge, overwhelming resources to throw at any problem or technology they need to master. 

Trying to ignore the Chinese - or worse pretending they are somehow technologically 'backward' compared to us (politicians playing to the dimwits)  is simply being an ostrich. The best we can hope for is a 'benign' China' but we'll have to live with them anyway - this is undoubtedly their century - and hope that the current 'hiccup' is just that, same as Trump - a passing regressive step.

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12 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Please try and live in the present.

Sure China (like Japan, South Korea and others before it) a few decades ago 'industrialized' making cheap copies, plastic toys and the like but today is not generally some 'backward' cheap labour sweatshop (yes they have their own Leicester's too) but a modern growing economy. Indeed they have their own problems similar to us of jobs leaving for cheaper economies such a Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and the like (with the cheap plastic toys).

However, even ignoring the obvious global leaders like it or not such as such as Huawei, the cheap solar panels that have crashed the price of renewables, their 'Nuclear' industry (see Hinkley) or even the Chinese Space programme (I suspect they'll be back on the moon to stay before the Yanks) it should still be obvious that a country with 1.4Bn people, many extremely well educated (and most of which are outright entrepreneurs) will have huge numbers of Ph.Ds in any science or technology you care to mention - probably 100 for every one of 'ours' in the UK (as is my experience).

Yes - be afraid - be terrified (I am when when I lecture/visit there) as if you (or 'us') can keep up with their pace of development and change let alone all the very bright 20 year olds. They simply have huge, overwhelming resources to throw at any problem or technology they need to master. 

Trying to ignore the Chinese - or worse pretending they are somehow technologically 'backward' compared to us (politicians playing to the dimwits)  is simply being an ostrich. The best we can hope for is a 'benign' China' but we'll have to live with them anyway - this is undoubtedly their century - and hope that the current 'hiccup' is just that, same as Trump - a passing regressive step.

I know a bit (only a bit) about chess. It was banned during the Cultural Revolution and afterwards there was a determined push to promote the game and make a mark on the international scene. From not being a serious force at all China now has three players in the top 20 men's list and five in the top 15 for women and has won two the the last three world team men's championships.

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21 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

I know a bit (only a bit) about chess. It was banned during the Cultural Revolution and afterwards there was a determined push to promote the game and make a mark on the international scene. From not being a serious force at all China now has three players in the top 20 men's list and five in the top 15 for women and has won two the the last three world team men's championships.

You make my point with clarity.

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With Boris Johnson in Scotland, I wonder how many posters might vote for Scottish independence on here if they lived there and had a vote? I'm assuming every Brexit voter would because 'being your country' and making your own decisions would be the most important factor. And I'm guessing for remainers, they would also want to vote for independence? To not to have to be any of this government / Johnson regime and a possible chance ahead to be part of a greater EU bloc?

I would be voting for Scottish independence anyway if I had the choice. But perhaps I might be in a minority? Perhaps it would be a short term poor decision?

I have the sense Scotland will leave the union in 2022 (after a 2021 vote). Who would blame them? 

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