Corona Virus main thread

[sonyc 5,541]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

"The crisis in Britain has been highlighted in the European media with Mr Hancock’s “running out of control” headlined in France’s Le Figaro. Netherlands daily De Telegraaf stated: “Passengers of ferries from the UK are no longer welcome here.” Bild, in Germany, revealed that travellers from the UK were being held overnight in Hanover airport until they tested negative. Spain’s El Pais said “Europe shields itself from the United Kingdom for fear of the new strain of the virus.”  

How to make a crises into...well....an even bigger crises, without even trying. 

Hasn't MP Roger Gale asked for Hancock to resign. Similarly he has called for Johnson to resign if he doesn't produce a deal.

Gale seems someone able to think for himself at least and is not the nodding dog type.

[sonyc 5,541]

3 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Agreed.

This is why he did not inform WHO in September as he knew the world would make us lock down I guess and he thought the vaccine would be rolled out quicker.

I have no idea what advice he listens to. Yesterday he was insistent that schools would go back. I cannot believe he has not been told that one of the main mutations under investigation is it has learnt how to infect ( not make seriously ill ) children, something pre mutation it did not seem capable of doing. Yet as usual he completely ignored that and said ‘ schools would go back ‘ rather than manage expectations and simply say ‘ this is something we are looking at due to the fact we are investigating how the mutations effect children ‘.

The effect on children is interesting. Anecdotally, we hear here how so many parents get the virus from their children. So lots of businesses close temporarily because of this whilst parents self -isolate. Younger people seem to be vectors. 

It's complex. You can see another u turn coming though.

 

[paul moy 235]

16 hours ago, benchwarmer said:

They may and I certainly hope they do, but that's not evidence because this variant didn't exist when vaccines were being tested.  Hopefully they will run more tests now and be able to adjust the vaccines if necessary.  

Quite easy to adjust apparently, according to an expert on Five Live last week.

[Well b back 3,250]

1 minute ago, sonyc said:

The effect on children is interesting. Anecdotally, we hear here how so many parents get the virus from their children. So lots of businesses close temporarily because of this whilst parents self -isolate. Younger people seem to be vectors. 

It's complex. You can see another u turn coming though.

 

Unfortunately it seems that where children didn’t spread it to any wide degree the mutations could be different and children become major spreaders. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55406939

[paul moy 235]

1 minute ago, sonyc said:

The effect on children is interesting. Anecdotally, we hear here how so many parents get the virus from their children. So lots of businesses close temporarily because of this whilst parents self -isolate. Younger people seem to be vectors. 

It's complex. You can see another u turn coming though.

 

Not news.  Younger people all the way up to 30 years of age have been the major spreaders and will continue to be as long as they ignore the rules. 

[paul moy 235]

13 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Agreed.

This is why he did not inform WHO in September as he knew the world would make us lock down I guess and he thought the vaccine would be rolled out quicker.

I have no idea what advice he listens to. Yesterday he was insistent that schools would go back. I cannot believe he has not been told that one of the main mutations under investigation is it has learnt how to infect ( not make seriously ill ) children, something pre mutation it did not seem capable of doing. Yet as usual he completely ignored that and said ‘ schools would go back ‘ rather than manage expectations and simply say ‘ this is something we are looking at due to the fact we are investigating how the mutations effect children ‘.

Simply not the facts.

[Well b back 3,250]

1 minute ago, paul moy said:

Simply not the facts.

Which part ? What are you going to make up now ? 

[Well b back 3,250]

3 minutes ago, paul moy said:

Simply not the facts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55406939

[paul moy 235]

This lockdown will not work......

six people from three different households standing in my street chatting under Tier 4

The rule is only two people allowed

Should I tell them ?  🤣

[paul moy 235]

14 minutes ago, Well b back said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55406939

Leftie bilge 😂

[ricardo 7,395]

Yesterdays European.

Italy         10872 - 415

France    5797 - 351

Spain      7503-112

Germany  19333 - 533

 

 

[ricardo 7,395]

The local situation

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Lateral Flow testing being given the thumbs down by many experts. It is only 50/50, and asymptomatic people tend to show negative.

Hospitalisations now at almost April levels.

Previous lockdowns worked but now we are back to critical levels. Are lockdowns just a temporary fix and relief? We are confident about the vaccine but it is still a long way off for many.

[Barbe bleu 831]

57 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Lateral Flow testing being given the thumbs down by many experts. It is only 50/50, and asymptomatic people tend to show negative.

Hospitalisations now at almost April levels.

Previous lockdowns worked but now we are back to critical levels. Are lockdowns just a temporary fix and relief? We are confident about the vaccine but it is still a long way off for many.

Yes of course they are temporary relief rather than a solution but with targetted vaccination already underway and large scale (I would say mass but dont dare) campaign hopefully around the corner surely we should just buy ourselves a bit more time and enjoy the same four walls we have been looking at all year?  Unlike March there is a definite end point in sight.

 

 

[Essjayess 307]

4 hours ago, ricardo said:

Pointless gesturing, the horse has already bolted.

Agree with the horse has bolted saying, the new variant is now well in place in UK to  be the main Covid threat. If Europe to think that closing  the borders for some days, even some weeks, to stop the new variant from becoming dominant in their  countries, when its already seeded in quite a few there, will work for them, than they dont know Covid or human beings behaviour in the West.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

30 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Yes of course they are temporary relief rather than a solution but with targetted vaccination already underway and large scale (I would say mass but dont dare) campaign hopefully around the corner surely we should just buy ourselves a bit more time and enjoy the same four walls we have been looking at all year?  Unlike March there is a definite end point in sight.

 

 

I am for lockdowns if they achieve their purpose. It isn't the worst thing that can happen to the majority.

[Yellow Fever 3,814]

32 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Agree with the horse has bolted saying, the new variant is now well in place in UK to  be the main Covid threat. If Europe to think that closing  the borders for some days, even some weeks, to stop the new variant from becoming dominant in their  countries, when its already seeded in quite a few there, will work for them, than they dont know Covid or human beings behaviour in the West.

As per BB above - it's time we need and a better understanding of the variant.

If it turned out that it was 10 times more deadly to certain demographics then you'd be pretty pissed off if our government had just ignored the threat when at the very least they could have applied the precautionary principle and slowed it.  

Then again this is Boris Johnson we are talking about.....

[Well b back 3,250]

Looks like football at FCR with crowds could be off the agenda soon

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/norfolk-coronavirus-tier-change-amid-record-rises-6864462

Edited December 22, 2020 by Well b back

[ricardo 7,395]

23 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

As per BB above - it's time we need and a better understanding of the variant.

If it turned out that it was 10 times more deadly to certain demographics then you'd be pretty pissed off if our government had just ignored the threat when at the very least they could have applied the precautionary principle and slowed it.  

Then again this is Boris Johnson we are talking about.....

However, this is not the case. The variant already exists in several countries, ( Italy, Denmark, Australia) the UK has been the first to identify it thanks to being one of the world leaders in genomic surveillance.

Virologist Marc Van Ranst at the Riga Institute in Belgium was quoted as saying, "l think we will find in the coming days that a lot of other countries will find it."

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

However, this is not the case. The variant already exists in several countries, ( Italy, Denmark, Australia) the UK has been the first to identify it thanks to being one of the world leaders in genomic surveillance.

Virologist Marc Van Ranst at the Riga Institute in Belgium was quoted as saying, "l think we will find in the coming days that a lot of other countries will find it."

 

Is it definitely the same variant?

Schapps was so bold as to say there have been thousands of variants

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,189]

25 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Looks like football at FCR with crowds could be off the agenda soon

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/norfolk-coronavirus-tier-change-amid-record-rises-6864462

The next reviews are December 30th???

Bloody hell, no wonder it's bad over there 😔

 

[ricardo 7,395]

8 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Is it definitely the same variant?

Schapps was so bold as to say there have been thousands of variants

The UK is responsible for identifying 45% of all the variants reported to the W.H.O.

It should tell you something about the strength of our genomic surveillance.

[Well b back 3,250]

13 minutes ago, ricardo said:

However, this is not the case. The variant already exists in several countries, ( Italy, Denmark, Australia) the UK has been the first to identify it thanks to being one of the world leaders in genomic surveillance.

Virologist Marc Van Ranst at the Riga Institute in Belgium was quoted as saying, "l think we will find in the coming days that a lot of other countries will find it."

 

Unfortunately Oxford identified the variants in September. It almost certainly came from a patient in a Berkshire hospital. It is certainly to late to stop it now but could have been ‘ slowed ‘ in October / November.

[Indy 3,310]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The UK is responsible for identifying 45% of all the variants reported to the W.H.O.

It should tell you something about the strength of our genomic surveillance.

We’ve always been a leader, our life sciences are renowned world over along with our engineering, it’s a pity it’s overlooked by the UK itself, severe lack of investment in our own abilities.

[ricardo 7,395]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

Unfortunately Oxford identified the variants in September. It almost certainly came from a patient in a Berkshire hospital. It is certainly to late to stop it now but could have been ‘ slowed ‘ in October / November.

There are hundreds of variants so it is unlikely to be able to tell which is more contagious than others until they actually become the dominant strain. By that time they will be everywhere.

[Barbe bleu 831]

Just now, Well b back said:

Unfortunately Oxford identified the variants in September. It almost certainly came from a patient in a Berkshire hospital. It is certainly to late to stop it now but could have been ‘ slowed ‘ in October / November.

In fairness to the scientists why would we specifically target what was then juat one of probably tens of thousands of variants when there was no evidence that it was materially different to  others? 

It was the analysis thst suggested a mutation here caused easier spread that caused the concern not the presence of previously observed mutations.

[Indy 3,310]

29 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

In fairness to the scientists why would we specifically target what was then juat one of probably tens of thousands of variants when there was no evidence that it was materially different to  others? 

It was the analysis thst suggested a mutation here caused easier spread that caused the concern not the presence of previously observed mutations.

It must be stressed from what I’ve been told, mutation of the virus is not a threat, it’s a full transition from the current variant to a new virus which will cause some issues. This would from what little I know, I’m not an expert but been informed by those involved, that any challenge to the mutation is easy to tweak.

Additionally any future Covid variants will be able to be covered by a vaccine quickly as all base knowledge is now understood and will be monitored.

I must admit it’s a subject which I’m now very interested in and I’m starting to read up where I can and even ordered some literature on viruses, the immune system just for evening entertainment reading. Better than the fictional trash my wife reads 😂

[Well b back 3,250]

37 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

In fairness to the scientists why would we specifically target what was then juat one of probably tens of thousands of variants when there was no evidence that it was materially different to  others? 

It was the analysis thst suggested a mutation here caused easier spread that caused the concern not the presence of previously observed mutations.

Strange how it even has the same number. It is logged in real time in October on a different thread. 
In a press conference on Saturday, Chief Science Adviser Patrick Vallance said B.1.1.7, which first appeared in a virus isolated on 20 September, accounted for about 26% of cases in mid-November. “By the week commencing the ninth of December, these figures were much higher,” he said. “So, in London, over 60% of all the cases were the new variant.” Johnson added that the slew of mutations may have increased the virus’ transmissibility by 70%.

[Well b back 3,250]

5 minutes ago, Indy said:

It must be stressed from what I’ve been told, mutation of the virus is not a threat, it’s a full transition from the current variant to a new virus which will cause some issues. This would from what little I know, I’m not an expert but been informed by those involved, that any challenge to the mutation is easy to tweak.

Additionally any future Covid variants will be able to be covered by a vaccine quickly as all base knowledge is now understood and will be monitored.

I must admit it’s a subject which I’m now very interested in and I’m starting to read up where I can and even ordered some literature on viruses, the immune system just for evening entertainment reading. Better than the fictional trash my wife reads 😂

Yes as you know Indy I had no interest in vaccines let alone viruses until about February. I now have such an interest I really wish I could apply to Jenner for a job. 
As far as I can see with the new types of vaccines there shouldn’t be to much problem whatever it decides to do. Once this pandemic is nullified I suspect there will be some astonishing things that they start doing with the vaccines.

[Barbe bleu 831]

25 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Strange how it even has the same number. It is logged in real time in October 

I'm  not sure I follow.  What has the same number?

The point I was making was that there are far more mutant versions of the virus in circulation than  there are of the purestrain wuhan version and we don't worry too much about all or any of them. It was the apparent extra spread that raised the alarm and not the identification of the strain and there is nobreaon to suppose this was remotely apparent until quite recently.