Corona Virus main thread

[wcorkcanary 4,329]

26 minutes ago, Van wink said:

It may still be a factor when the second and third waves come. 

Bass often feed between the second and third waves on a beach with clean 'table surf'.  

Only 9 deaths here yesterday, hopefully  getting somewhere , will be interesting to see if theres a rise once we get moving again from Monday.  

[Mark .Y. 351]

50 minutes ago, TIL 1010 said:

You obviously have not listened to one word of the advice given to you, not one word.

Passes the day  😉

 

[Mark .Y. 351]

27 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

The 0.27 was the population as a whole - hence the 4% is also.

Actually I suspect I've overestimated but it's only to ground test the hypothesis - see if it stacks up. It does.  It's not 25%.

I suspect Whitty did a similar calculation!

I guess there is an unknown, and that is whether the flu-like symptoms many people have reported as having had in December/January were Covid-19 too. I haven't got any idea but if that is the case, I suppose it might significantly change those figures ??

 

[Herman 9,713]

1 hour ago, wcorkcanary said:

First of the season, caught on ultra lightweight gear under the shade of oak trees that have their roots in salt water!!!  They're gonna be deeeeerishusss!!!!

They obviously missed the stay alert advice. Dozy twonks. 

[wcorkcanary 4,329]

1 minute ago, Herman said:

They obviously missed the stay alert advice. Dozy twonks. 

👍 Bite...dont bite . Get caught  , dont get caught. If you can breathe in water , stay there...... or dont.  At least those fish took Boris' advice to travel to 'other places '... one is already in my belly. Or it isn't.  The other one is just chilling...in the fridge for the missus , she'll  prob have it for Brexit or breakfast  , or not. Maybe , sometimes, we hope,or don't. 

Hope that's clear enough. 

[wcorkcanary 4,329]

12 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Passes the day  😉

 

More than one address  ....suspiciously clear evidence of multi logins and an ability to fib.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

7 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

I guess there is an unknown, and that is whether the flu-like symptoms many people have reported as having had in December/January were Covid-19 too. I haven't got any idea but if that is the case, I suppose it might significantly change those figures ??

 

I dont think so. The big assumption I made is that the 'unreported' asymptomatic or mild cases follow the same shape as the known cases ... I.e ramp up in March, plateau  April and drop away recently. I simply assumed they are twice what we have today (the recent drop) but were constant all March, April and yes early Mayi There may well be some cases earlier but insignificant compared to this... and I'm also double counting many (assuming only a 2 week active period).

All said. Some proper antibody data will nail this once and for all.

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Shapps giving a Political broadcast about Transport tonight rather than the pandemic.

Johnson busy again?

[dj11 377]

16 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Shapps giving a Political broadcast about Transport tonight rather than the pandemic.

Johnson busy again?

Tories are too busy tweeting. 
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52653609

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Just saw the ONS random study  - about 0.27% have CV over last 2 weeks.

I can make a quick rough estimate from that.

Assume all 0.27% (let's call it 0.3%) have / clear CV over 2 weeks.

From March to now that's about 12 weeks max @ 0.3% per fortnight.

6 x 0.3  is circa 2% have had disease. Add in a factor of 2 of for now dropping/ past-peak - say 4% 

Only a rough'n'ready guesstimate I know but definitely not the herd immunity numbers. 4 - 5% looks a good guess as per elsewhere.

Antibody tests to prove.

As you say it's all guesstimates until the antibody tests are used but I think the peak was much higher than it is now - you've only got to look at hospital admissions now being much lower than they were a month back which implies total infection numbers are now much lower.

 

According to the covid symptom tracker app, the peak was at the start of April when it is showing approx. 2.1m active infections, down to 248k now.  That would push up the numbers significantly.

 

Also, anyone seen any update on the debate about when herd immunity would be achieved & the comments from Sweden that they think they're already close to herd immunity in Stockholm ?

[Mark .Y. 351]

56 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

As you say it's all guesstimates until the antibody tests are used but I think the peak was much higher than it is now - you've only got to look at hospital admissions now being much lower than they were a month back which implies total infection numbers are now much lower.

 

According to the covid symptom tracker app, the peak was at the start of April when it is showing approx. 2.1m active infections, down to 248k now.  That would push up the numbers significantly.

 

Also, anyone seen any update on the debate about when herd immunity would be achieved & the comments from Sweden that they think they're already close to herd immunity in Stockholm ?

No idea how reliable this is but is from today :

"According to an article by political and social analysts in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs published by the Council on Foreign Relations, Swedish authorities have not officially declared a goal of reaching herd immunity against COVID-19, which most scientists believe is achieved when more than 60% of the population has had the virus. However, instead of declaring a lockdown, Sweden has asked its citizens to practice social distancing on a mostly voluntary basis. Swedish authorities have imposed some restrictions to flatten the curve, but have not introduced harsh controls, fines, policing, location-tracing technologies or apps. The analysts believe that augmenting immunity against COVID-19 is definitely part of Sweden’s broader strategy, with Anders Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, projecting that Stockholm city could reach herd immunity as soon as this month. Based on calculations by Stockholm University mathematician Tom Britton, 40% immunity against COVID-19 in Sweden’s capital city should be sufficient to stop it from spreading in the region and that this could happen by mid-June."

Copied from :

https://www.hospimedica.com/covid-19/articles/294782383/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-targeting-herd-immunity-could-be-adopted-globally-say-analysts.html

[Mark .Y. 351]

I am not in any way saying that the total number of deaths in the UK is anything but appalling......... but this is off the BBC website, and assuming it is true, shows that Italy does not include deaths in care homes in it's figures. I know from reading lots about Spain (including on Spanish websites) that there has been a problem including the care home deaths there too and that the total is much higher than admitted to. I think it likely shows that the UK does not genuinely have the worst death rate in Europe - Italy and Spain are likely to be worse (puts tin hat on 🙂).

Italy reports 262 new deaths - highest in a week

Some news from Italy, where 262 coronavirus-related deaths have been reported in the past 24 hours. It's the highest daily tally since 7 May.

This brings the country's overall death toll to 31,368 - the third-highest in the world behind only the US and the UK. However every country counts deaths differently and in Italy there is no national figure for those that occur in care homes. The UK's total now includes deaths across all settings.

Italy started easing lockdown restrictions on 4 May, with people now being allowed to visit their relatives in small numbers. Parks, factories and building sites are being reopened.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

As you say it's all guesstimates until the antibody tests are used but I think the peak was much higher than it is now - you've only got to look at hospital admissions now being much lower than they were a month back which implies total infection numbers are now much lower.

 

According to the covid symptom tracker app, the peak was at the start of April when it is showing approx. 2.1m active infections, down to 248k now.  That would push up the numbers significantly.

 

Also, anyone seen any update on the debate about when herd immunity would be achieved & the comments from Sweden that they think they're already close to herd immunity in Stockholm ?

Only a couple of points. Our known new infections ramped up to circa 6000/day in mid March, stayed at that level in April and are only now dropping to circa 3000/day

The 2.1M you quote is I guess is a global figure.

[Van wink 2,994]

Interesting to see more learning coming from the infection, reported today that one quarter of deaths from CV 19 in hospitals were patients with diabetes, obviously a huge determinant in clinical outcome. Also of course more prevalent in people with obesity and ethnic groups form Asia I believe. I would speculate that due to the obesity epidemic in this country we have a very high risk population, could well impact on our comparative mortality stats.

Edited May 14, 2020 by Van wink

[Van wink 2,994]

 

"Fewer than 24 people are catching coronavirus each day in London, new modelling suggests, with forecasts predicting the virus could be wiped out in the capital within a fortnight.

Analysis by Public Health England and Cambridge University calculates that the “R” reproduction rate has fallen to 0.4 in London, with the number of new cases halving every 3.5 days.

If cases continue to decrease at the current rate, the virus will be virtually eliminated in the capital by the end of the month, raising questions about whether the strict lockdown measures would need to continue."

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 3,777]

3 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

I am not in any way saying that the total number of deaths in the UK is anything but appalling......... but this is off the BBC website, and assuming it is true, shows that Italy does not include deaths in care homes in it's figures. I know from reading lots about Spain (including on Spanish websites) that there has been a problem including the care home deaths there too and that the total is much higher than admitted to. I think it likely shows that the UK does not genuinely have the worst death rate in Europe - Italy and Spain are likely to be worse (puts tin hat on 🙂).

There are far fewer care homes in Italy than England though; less than half. It's a cultural thing: in Italy the elderly either move in with their children who look after them or they get a housekeeper from Eastern Europe (or in some cases, Africa) to be a live-in carer.

[BigFish 1,986]

4 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

.... assuming it is true, shows that Italy does not include deaths in care homes in it's figures. I know from reading lots about Spain (including on Spanish websites) that there has been a problem including the care home deaths there too and that the total is much higher than admitted to. I think it likely shows that the UK does not genuinely have the worst death rate in Europe - Italy and Spain are likely to be worse

The UK excess death figure is far higher than the figures the government publicise. Even then they felt compelled to stop publicising the international comparison in the 5pm daily briefing - it is obvious that the reason for this is that they thought it would show them in a good light and now THE GOVERNMENT'S OWN comparison shows the UK doing worse than any other European nation in absolute terms. The government decided to use this comparison, no one else. But the their failure has been far far greater than even they thought possible.  It is a bit late to start picking up the fact the figures arn't comparable now.

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

Lockdown has obviously worked in London and virus almost eliminated there

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/14/london-has-just-24-new-coronavirus-cases-day/

[Herman 9,713]

Just a reminder to people that may fall for the press's attacks on teachers and their unions. Teachers have been working all the way through this disaster. 

[Mark .Y. 351]

7 hours ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

There are far fewer care homes in Italy than England though; less than half. It's a cultural thing: in Italy the elderly either move in with their children who look after them or they get a housekeeper from Eastern Europe (or in some cases, Africa) to be a live-in carer.

That is a fair point, I honestly don't know how many there are. Spain, despite having that similar cultural thing as Italy, has a lot though. One thing I did see was the huge care home in (I think) Milan, that suffered 200 deaths amongst a total of 1000 residents - that is some size place, I don't think we have any on that scale do we ???  

[Mark .Y. 351]

6 hours ago, BigFish said:

The UK excess death figure is far higher than the figures the government publicise. Even then they felt compelled to stop publicising the international comparison in the 5pm daily briefing - it is obvious that the reason for this is that they thought it would show them in a good light and now THE GOVERNMENT'S OWN comparison shows the UK doing worse than any other European nation in absolute terms. The government decided to use this comparison, no one else. But the their failure has been far far greater than even they thought possible.  It is a bit late to start picking up the fact the figures arn't comparable now.

It's never too late to be looking for the right figures.

Given the Government's competence (or lack of) at communicating, it wouldn't surprise me at all if they were unable to get a handle on, and produce some relevant information on something like this.

[Mark .Y. 351]

8 hours ago, Van wink said:

 

"Fewer than 24 people are catching coronavirus each day in London, new modelling suggests, with forecasts predicting the virus could be wiped out in the capital within a fortnight.

Analysis by Public Health England and Cambridge University calculates that the “R” reproduction rate has fallen to 0.4 in London, with the number of new cases halving every 3.5 days.

If cases continue to decrease at the current rate, the virus will be virtually eliminated in the capital by the end of the month, raising questions about whether the strict lockdown measures would need to continue."

Herd immunity already ???  😉

 

[T 190]

Absolutely you have to be careful make comparisons but as the statistician that Boris likes to quote it is clear that the UK is in the worst group. However you look at it Boris snd the UK govt has performed poorly with tragic consequences and while I’m totally willing to believe want to do the right thing struggle to communicate clearly and deliver. 

[T 190]

Just now, Mark .Y. said:

Herd immunity already ???  😉

 

Well Mirror reporting 19m in UK May have had it. Emphasise May. Let us all hope that is true but that is just based on model assumption possibilities and none of the testing supports this. Good antibody testing is now happening in other countries and we should be able to have actual numbers rather than speculation this month using good sample based evidence although the focus will be in front line workers rather than random samples at first. 

[Canary Wundaboy 1,358]

Most densely populated country in Europe, didn’t close the borders and didn’t impose a full lockdown. I don’t think the infection/death rate is that surprising, the real question is whether we’ll be as badly affected economically as other countries as a result.

[Mark .Y. 351]

1 hour ago, T said:

Well Mirror reporting 19m in UK May have had it. Emphasise May. Let us all hope that is true but that is just based on model assumption possibilities and none of the testing supports this. Good antibody testing is now happening in other countries and we should be able to have actual numbers rather than speculation this month using good sample based evidence although the focus will be in front line workers rather than random samples at first. 

Yes, I agree.

It does "feel" a bit of a strange estimate doesn't it, having said that - I'm very surprised by the figures in London too. Only 24 cases a day seems very low.

 

[Mark .Y. 351]

1 hour ago, T said:

Absolutely you have to be careful make comparisons but as the statistician that Boris likes to quote it is clear that the UK is in the worst group. However you look at it Boris snd the UK govt has performed poorly with tragic consequences and while I’m totally willing to believe want to do the right thing struggle to communicate clearly and deliver. 

Completely agree with this too.

[sonyc 5,491]

10 hours ago, Van wink said:

 

"Fewer than 24 people are catching coronavirus each day in London, new modelling suggests, with forecasts predicting the virus could be wiped out in the capital within a fortnight.

Analysis by Public Health England and Cambridge University calculates that the “R” reproduction rate has fallen to 0.4 in London, with the number of new cases halving every 3.5 days.

If cases continue to decrease at the current rate, the virus will be virtually eliminated in the capital by the end of the month, raising questions about whether the strict lockdown measures would need to continue."

Yes, this is fantastic (24 per day only) yet 4000 a day in the NE/Yorks area where I am. You wonder whether lockdown should be regionalised then (too complicated?) and align track/trace very promptly to bring that figure down by taking control of the virus spread (as in the messaging). Yet, our infrastructure may not be there.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-coronavirus-contact-tracer-target-brandon-lewis-latest-update-a9515701.html

[Van wink 2,994]

18 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yes, this is fantastic (24 per day only) yet 4000 a day in the NE/Yorks area where I am. You wonder whether lockdown should be regionalised then (too complicated?) and align track/trace very promptly to bring that figure down by taking control of the virus spread (as in the messaging). Yet, our infrastructure may not be there.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-coronavirus-contact-tracer-target-brandon-lewis-latest-update-a9515701.html

When I read about this last night, I had to read it again, because it came as quite a surprise. It is very good news. The infection rate clearly peaked in London well before the the rest of the country and undoubtedly we are seeing different pockets of infection at different points in the curve by region. It does support the argument for a more nuanced approach to releasing lockdown, unfortunately we dont have the public health infrastructure in place atm to enable that to happen.

My fear for London is that despite an apparent low R the overcrowding on public transport could soon see a rapid increase again.