Corona Virus main thread

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

I'm not sure I've seen anyone suggest that "more people being infected is better".

 

Also from reading the NYT emails, it seems to me the US is very much taking a similar approach to the UK, if anything more so in reality  - I saw a comment that there were 500,000 people attending the Indy 500 a while back, it sounds like life is largely back to normal there.

 

Seems to me most Western countries are going down the route of continuing to open up despite seeing case numbers rising, the main difference is the UK is some way ahead with its vaccine programme.

We have to open up at some point ICF and I do take the point made by government that to do it when schools are closed and during the summer is a good move. The problem however for me is opening up when there is already a massive infection rate.

[Yellow Fever 3,810]

39 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

You've misuderstood me completely and taken a very binary view.

I do not suggest that the virus hibernates over summer.  It does not go away. 

What I say is that the best evidence available to us tell us that earlier variants spread more easily in the winter and less easily in summer.  

Of course the emergence of kent contributed to the winter peak, I have been clear on this a number of times but it's not a case of either/or,  there could be more than one factor.  Summer + low R0 varienty = trough, winter + high R0 variety = peak

I think the point we should not 'expect' the virus t go way all by itself without us doing anything intentionally or unintentionally. If for whatever reason we all go to late night pubs in enclosed spaces winter or summer any of the variants will thrive.

By the way, I'm very sure were not anywhere near herd immunity on any of the earlier variants - it was just the severe lockdowns that got them under control. If we were at 'herd immunity' then we really are up s h i t creak without a paddle as that would largely imply that many of the newer variants to truly prosper as they did defeated the immune response of large numbers of those who had already gained such immunity - and presumably it would be easy for it to do so again (in effect a vaccine escape). Clearly that mercifully has not happened as yet to any degree.

[It's Character Forming 1,164]

9 minutes ago, Van wink said:

We have to open up at some point ICF and I do take the point made by government that to do it when schools are closed and during the summer is a good move. The problem however for me is opening up when there is already a massive infection rate.

Yes it’s a difficult one.

 

For me the reality is very many people in their 20s and 30s know this disease is not a big deal for them and are getting on with their lives and are mixing freely, nor they know the older folk like me are (or should be) fully jabbed. Just go out in a city centre on a Saturday afternoon and it’s obvious.

 

I can see an argument for delaying a bit longer but there is only so long you can get 65m to put their lives on hold for a disease that is only putting less than 3,000 people in hospital at the moment. Some of us feel more risk averse but I think our Government, the Scottish Govt and other Western countries are now just being realistic in recognising this. It’s not a risk free approach but hopefully it will work out ok. 

 

 

[It's Character Forming 1,164]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

It's very obviously the human factors which dominate - its how we live (inside/outside) and what WE do through the seasons. The virus itself doesn't care.

It really a definition of what seasonal means.

True, but there is a real and important point here. The virus requires humans to replicate hence it is bound up with the behaviour of its human hosts. I’m not sure if the virus itself is affected to any degree by seasonal factors directly or not.  I’ve not seen any research on this.

 

But the question is, is it worse in winter than summer? And clearly the answer is yes.

[ricardo 7,395]

ZOE App numbers continue stalling out. It has barely moved in the last 4-5 days and is down 1% today.

Hitting the vaccine wall????

Who knows, only time will tell.

 

[Aggy 758]

23 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Funny thing is that it seem to me that's its your arguments always to open up over the last 15 months that have been twisted & flexible.

My position has been quite straightforward throughout, changing and updating slightly with new verifiable information and no wishful thinking which has bedeviled these pages and sadly this government in particular. Treat the virus with the respect it clearly deserves (128,000 deaths to date) and not to needlessly and unethically sacrifice either the vulnerable,  elderly or the young for some ill-defined 'greater good' or ideology. However, for reasons that escape you I have always had the the highest confidence in our (and other) vaccines and our scientific and technical ability to control this virus and end the pandemic. However I also know their weaknesses and limits.

Much, if not all of the choices made to date by politicians have not been 'following the science' but following the politics first and the science only when all other options have failed. 

I see no reason to continue this discussion

Not clear why historic numbers are relevant to future measures. What happened 12 months ago doesn’t mean hospitals will be overwhelmed this September.

I agree no reason to continue the discussion as you again haven’t answered any of the questions which might fill in some of the gaping holes in your logic.

 

PS. My mind boggles that you think 30,000 dying from flu in a bad flu season is not “needlessly sacrificing the vulnerable”. That’s the point you aren’t grasping. 

Edited July 9, 2021 by Aggy

[Barbe bleu 831]

47 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

By the way, I'm very sure were not anywhere near herd immunity on any of the earlier variants - it was just the severe lockdowns that got them under control. If we were at 'herd immunity' then we really are up s h i t creak without a paddle as that would largely imply that many of the newer variants to truly prosper as they did defeated the immune response of large numbers of those who had already gained such immunity - and presumably it would be easy for it to do so again (in effect a vaccine escape). Clearly that mercifully has not happened as yet to any degree.

No, I don't think you do need to make that inference. Herd immunity level is defined solely by the R0 of a pathogen. If R0 =2 then HIT = 50%, there is no escaping or changing that.

The big thing we can say for sure about Kent and then Delta is they had much higher R0s than previously seen. Its perfectly possible therefore that these continue(d) to spread exponentially even though the earlier versions were under the heavy breaking of herd immunity.

I think also that everyone is being too binary again. HIT is not a wall that stops everything  straight away.  Instead it's the point at which the overall number of infections cannot climb but must either be in decline or endemic).  And immunity, as we are seeing seeing is not all or nothing. What we are seeing increasingly is immunity as a headstart in a race to recovery or death. Immunity is not a guarantee of a win, but it's a help.

Edited July 9, 2021 by Barbe bleu

[Aggy 758]

21 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Yes it’s a difficult one.

 

For me the reality is very many people in their 20s and 30s know this disease is not a big deal for them and are getting on with their lives and are mixing freely, nor they know the older folk like me are (or should be) fully jabbed. Just go out in a city centre on a Saturday afternoon and it’s obvious.

 

I can see an argument for delaying a bit longer but there is only so long you can get 65m to put their lives on hold for a disease that is only putting less than 3,000 people in hospital at the moment. Some of us feel more risk averse but I think our Government, the Scottish Govt and other Western countries are now just being realistic in recognising this. It’s not a risk free approach but hopefully it will work out ok. 

 

 

The point surely is that there is a difference between what people choose to do individually and what should drive drastic national measures removing basic freedoms.

I find it, to be honest, a bit worrying that people are happy, and even clamouring for, basic freedoms to be taken away based on subjective things and what might happen. 

The only justification (if there is one) has to be objective - will hospitals be overwhelmed? If so, everyone suffers. If not, then we’re making arbitrary decisions. Drawing arbitrary lines. And who knows where those lines might be drawn, or how those arbitrary decisions might be made in the future. A small first step down a very slippery slope. 

Of course people can have their own individual views on risk aversion and act accordingly. If people want to stay home or wear masks or skip crowded places they’re absolutely entitled to do so. Lots of people have been doing that for decades.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think the point we should not 'expect' the virus t go way all by itself without us doing anything intentionally or unintentionally. If for whatever reason we all go to late night pubs in enclosed spaces winter or summer any of the variants will thrive.

By the way, I'm very sure were not anywhere near herd immunity on any of the earlier variants - it was just the severe lockdowns that got them under control. If we were at 'herd immunity' then we really are up s h i t creak without a paddle as that would largely imply that many of the newer variants to truly prosper as they did defeated the immune response of large numbers of those who had already gained such immunity - and presumably it would be easy for it to do so again (in effect a vaccine escape). Clearly that mercifully has not happened as yet to any degree.

precisely this... it doesn't count as "Herd immunity" until society can function as normal and r stays 1 or below. How we get there is the thing.

It's not a stationary goal either but a gradually evolving one as Israel are now finding out.

A combination of surveillance, some restrictions on travel and vaccination boosters (and some tolerance of natural infection) will be the way forward.

As for variants, I think our main threat is on a global basis but all the evidence on the vaccinations shows they all still work incredibly well (not perfect) against all the known variants.

It's said that should the virus manage to evade the vaccine, it would also become far less potent due to the changes to the spike protein that would be required but I guess we'll have to see what transpires... On a global scale, the vast majority are still unvaccinated so selection pressure would still favour those conditions. Perhaps the next one will emerge in somewhere with low vaccination rates and will basically be an even more contagious version of delta which wouldn't be such an issue for us if the vaccine still does the job.

I think our seroprevelance survey showing such high numbers puts us in a deceptively good position compared to the likes of Australia... If they can't keep delta out through lockdown then I really don't know where they go from here.

Edited July 9, 2021 by Tetteys Jig

[ricardo 7,395]

National

35,707 -  29

Yesterdays observation still applies

still a long way short of the 9 day doubling that Whitty spoke of.

Local

Norwich infection rate up from 106.7 to 116.1

latest N&N data shows 4 people in hospital

Vax

1st Dose     96,430

2nd Dose     175,467

 

Hospital Inpatients the last 7 days

08-07-2021           2,731 07-07-2021 2,648 06-07-2021 2,455 05-07-2021 2,335 04-07-2021 2,153 03-07-2021 2,035 02-07-2021 1,992 01-07-2021 1,916

[Canary Wundaboy 1,359]

Some way short of the doomsday predictions.

[ricardo 7,395]

[Essjayess 307]

Definite signa now that Delta has started its spread and will go thru most of Europe. Spain, Portugal and Netherlands cases are rising quite fast now, its sure to get into France, Germany, Italy and elsehere before long. Be interesting to see  what the EU nations will do as regards restrictions etc.

[Yellow Fever 3,810]

3 hours ago, ricardo said:

National

35,707 -  29

Yesterdays observation still applies

still a long way short of the 9 day doubling that Whitty spoke of.

Local

Norwich infection rate up from 106.7 to 116.1

latest N&N data shows 4 people in hospital

Vax

1st Dose     96,430

2nd Dose     175,467

 

Hospital Inpatients the last 7 days

08-07-2021           2,731 07-07-2021 2,648 06-07-2021 2,455 05-07-2021 2,335 04-07-2021 2,153 03-07-2021 2,035 02-07-2021 1,992 01-07-2021 1,916

ONS caes is 50% (plus) up in a week as reported. That's a doubling time of 1.4 weeks or about 9 to 10 days.

Whitty's 9 days not a bad engineering approximation.

[Van wink 2,994]

20 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

ONS caes is 50% (plus) up in a week as reported. That's a doubling time of 1.4 weeks or about 9 to 10 days.

Whitty's 9 days not a bad engineering approximation.

Yeh the ONS data today was concerning and showing an odd divergence with Zoe

[It's Character Forming 1,164]

Isn’t the ONS for the week to 3rd July so you’d have to look back on Zoe then to compare?

[Yellow Fever 3,810]

10 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Isn’t the ONS for the week to 3rd July so you’d have to look back on Zoe then to compare?

Agreed but its the most reliable data we have. Its only 5 or 6 days late.

[Yellow Fever 3,810]

-

Edited July 10, 2021 by Yellow Fever
duplication - message board issues again

[It's Character Forming 1,164]

9 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Agreed but its the most reliable data we have. Its only 5 or 6 days late.

my point is that if ONS looks out of sync with current Zoe data, people would have to look back at Zoe for the week to 3rd July to compare them, rather than saying current Zoe data is somehow wrong.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

my point is that if ONS looks out of sync with current Zoe data, people would have to look back at Zoe for the week to 3rd July to compare them, rather than saying current Zoe data is somehow wrong.

The Zoe total figures have been pretty stable for a few days ICF, the distribution of infection is changing on the app but not total numbers. There definitely a large discrepancy between Zoe figures and ONS survey which hasn’t always been the case, interesting.

[ricardo 7,395]

Here's  why

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1413477389481529345?s=19

 

[Well b back 3,250]

The discrepancy’s could well be the fact that the Delta symptoms are totally different and have not been publicised. If you have most of the delta symptoms and try to book a test, you would be told you are not eligible for a test. The ons is a random test. I maybe mistaken but when the ons figures were going down and suddenly being used on here it was challenged that they were only being used because they suited. Now they are going up they are no longer the accurate view.

[Well b back 3,250]

There will be interesting comparisons to be made over the next few weeks between Germany and the U.K. Germany have vaccinated more people than the U.K. however they are slightly behind us on % of population. They believe ( and I am not backing them up yet ) that because they use mainly mRNA vaccines, even first dose Oxford is second Pfizer or Moderna, their threshold will come at 60 - 70 % fully vaccinated. 

[Yellow Fever 3,810]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

The discrepancy’s could well be the fact that the Delta symptoms are totally different and have not been publicised. If you have most of the delta symptoms and try to book a test, you would be told you are not eligible for a test. The ons is a random test. I maybe mistaken but when the ons figures were going down and suddenly being used on here it was challenged that they were only being used because they suited. Now they are going up they are no longer the accurate view.

Add to that hay fever season! Many who suffer from that would put down a runny nose etc. to that and nobody in the younger age groups wants to go out of their way to report a negative test and al the issues that might cramp their style that could follow! Blissful ignorance.

Zoe is clearly currently off target - ONS as ever (and yes I've said that when the daily test positives were racing ahead of ONS too).

[sonyc 5,539]

I found this analysis to be interesting as he models various scenarios (forecasts about 12,000 in hospital at peak) but he offers of qualifications too. He is watching closely for trends over the next few days.

A thread of about 14/15 points if you read through. John Burns Murdoch retweeted this as a recommended read.

 

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1412182736572399623?s=19

(No idea why this site is acting up again today...so adding link again!)

 

Edited July 10, 2021 by sonyc

[It's Character Forming 1,164]

6 hours ago, Van wink said:

The Zoe total figures have been pretty stable for a few days ICF, the distribution of infection is changing on the app but not total numbers. There definitely a large discrepancy between Zoe figures and ONS survey which hasn’t always been the case, interesting.

Yes I’ve noticed the Zoe numbers have been flattening the last few days.

 

The ONS numbers are from a week ago, so we’ll have to wait and see if they show the same effect when we get them. At the moment we can’t say if there’s a discrepancy for the current Zoe numbers because the ONS numbers don’t exist yet.

[It's Character Forming 1,164]

Also it’s nonsense to say Zoe is clearly currently off target. We simply don’t know, we have nothing to compare the Zoe numbers from the past few days , it’s the most up to date info so it’s always ahead of the pack.
 

Hence we should be cautious about the fact that it seems to be showing new  case numbers flattening. It’s hopeful, but could also be down to statistical error.

[Yellow Fever 3,810]

47 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Also it’s nonsense to say Zoe is clearly currently off target. We simply don’t know, we have nothing to compare the Zoe numbers from the past few days , it’s the most up to date info so it’s always ahead of the pack.
 

Hence we should be cautious about the fact that it seems to be showing new  case numbers flattening. It’s hopeful, but could also be down to statistical error.

You only had to look at the prevalence map of Norfolk by Zoe a day or so ago to see that something is wrong with it.

Edited July 10, 2021 by Yellow Fever
Still has N.Norfolk as a hotspot.

[ricardo 7,395]

32367 -  34

ZOE App confirmation???

Local

Norwich infection rate up from 116.1 to 121.6

latest N&N data shows 4 people in hospital

Vax

1st Dose     88,675                 86.9% done                 Norwich numbers   73.7%

2nd Dose     166,883              65.6% done                                                   49.7%

Concerning that Norwich numbers still well behind UK and Norfolk averages

 

Hospital Inpatients the last 7 days (no update since 8th)

08-07-2021           2,731 07-07-2021 2,648 06-07-2021 2,455 05-07-2021 2,335 04-07-2021 2,153 03-07-2021 2,035 02-07-2021 1,992 01-07-2021 1,916

Edited July 10, 2021 by ricardo

[ricardo 7,395]

Rate of increase stalling this week

Friday: 30.7%
Thursday: 34.9%
Wednesday: 42.8%
Tuesday: 49.0%
Monday: 53.2%
Sunday: 66.9%