Wuhan coronavirus

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

To begin with, flights from hotspots like northern Italy and Iran should have been stopped a week or more ago. My understanding is that they have continued without even basic checks. We have been reacting to events rather than taking the required timely actions. We are not getting ahead of the curve until we get the R nought below one.

I’ve been with you all the way on this, particularly in recognising the threat this virus poses when some of the early evidence started to emerge about how it behaves and the reaction of the Chinese Government when it eventually decided to come clean. I also agree that we could have been more proactive in relation to flights from Italy and Iran. Where I differ from you and YF is in the role being played by the CMO. His role is fundamentally to protect public health, I don’t believe he is a political puppet, The action  he advises has to be based on a realistic understanding of the latest evidence, the capacity of the health services to respond and in the political context  of what can realistically be achieved in a relatively free democracy. Draconian measures will undoubtedly become necessary but when they are implemented they will only succeed if the population cooperates, I still see a lot scepticism out there but as more people recognise the severity of what we face we will in my view move into a scenario where there will be cooperation from the majority in society who will buy in to the concept that they will have to make sacrifice for the greater good. That I agree with YF is a political judgement but one informed by impartial forensic analysis from Public Health England.

[Surfer 1,547]

Oh well can' fix stupid as they say... US shoppers avoiding fresh fruit and vegetables. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-produce-idUSKBN20W2SS?taid=5e66d2c205296a00010463d7&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

[Surfer 1,547]

Meanwhile. Mr Rupert Murdoch's RWNJ propaganda channels continue their good work

"We have to pull together" says the channel that spends 99% of its time tearing us apart.

 

[T 190]

No where have I said that I or other people should not prepare for self isolation or to work at home as I have. I appreciate that some people are inherently scared.  Scared of other races. Scared of other religions. Scared of facts evidence analysis  logic and reason if it does not fit in with their views. It is their way of dealing with their fear. .
 

The consistent advice is there is no need to panic buy. Shelves  are restocking and there is plenty of online services. Shops in China and Italy are functioning. Panic buying is just an irrational response to people trying to control their fears and Is unnecessary  and anti social per all the inside expert advice with knowledge and experience 

The government is also seeking to reduce the spread of fake news such as you tubers which some people are irresponsible sharing on here

the govt is not implementing airport checks as while they may sooth the nerves of the irrational scared people there is no scientific evidence they will work

if people want to get ahead of the curve than the great Boris has said the advice could be for the elderly and vulnerable to stay at home  That seems reasonable to do now for those that think that the expert advisers are behind the curve  

 

Edited March 10, 2020 by T

[Van wink 2,994]

From what I’m hearing this morning I suspect that the concerns of YF and Ricardo are nearer the truth and that the experts behind the scenes want the government to move faster and stronger on controls than they actually are atm, if this doesn’t happen soon they will go public with their concerns. I’m a bit disappointed to hear that, but if this story is true will applaud the public health experts if  the government continues to react too slowly and they make their concerns public.

Edited March 10, 2020 by Van wink

[ricardo 7,395]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

From what I’m hearing this morning I suspect that the concerns of YF and Ricardo are nearer the truth and that the experts behind the scenes want the government to move faster and stronger on controls than they actually are atm, if this doesn’t happen soon they will go public with their concerns. I’m a bit disappointed to hear that, but if this story is true will applaud the public health experts if  the government continues to react too slowly and they make their concerns public.

A financial hit is now baked in so there seems little point either politically or economically in adopting a wait and see attitude. That bird has flown.

[T 190]

Is this just idle speculation as there does not appear to be any equivication according to offical sources this morning? I think Boris is a populist. He had populist support to go against expert advice on Brexit but I think being found to go against expert advice on this one as it escalates would be very politically risky 

[T 190]

The problem is if you escalate before it makes scientific sense you will cause additional hardship for people. That is fine if you are retired but not if you are working. Still nothing to stop individuals taking their own personal social distancing action now if they believe their own words rather than the words of experts but I don't see that generally yet. 

[Yellow Fever 3,783]

3 minutes ago, T said:

Is this just idle speculation as there does not appear to be any equivication according to offical sources this morning? I think Boris is a populist. He had populist support to go against expert advice on Brexit but I think being found to go against expert advice on this one as it escalates would be very politically risky 

As per earlier comments yes he is 'Populist'. He only says things people want to hear believe whether factual or not. Bad news, however necessary, just isn't his style.

[Yellow Fever 3,783]

10 minutes ago, ricardo said:

A financial hit is now baked in so there seems little point either politically or economically in adopting a wait and see attitude. That bird has flown.

Totally agree - a financial and economic crash - plus an Italian 'lock down' is now only days away. They had fewer cases than us 2 weeks ago!

Too little too late Johnson.

[T 190]

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-can-the-nhs-cope-with-the-increase-in-demand-11953882

 

Where I do agree with the doomsters to coin a Borisism is the relative shortage of critical care resources in the UK compared to other countries. Toilet paper I have and can easily get and does not reassure me but the number of critical care beds in other continental EU does reassure me. 

[Van wink 2,994]

50 minutes ago, T said:

Is this just idle speculation as there does not appear to be any equivication according to offical sources this morning? I think Boris is a populist. He had populist support to go against expert advice on Brexit but I think being found to go against expert advice on this one as it escalates would be very politically risky 

An interview on radio 5 this morning, I believe the information came from  the BBC health correspondent. If it has not been mentioned since then either the BBC are not sufficiently confident in their sources or somebody may have been leaned on. We will have to wait and see I guess

Edited March 10, 2020 by Van wink

[ricardo 7,395]

6 minutes ago, T said:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-can-the-nhs-cope-with-the-increase-in-demand-11953882

 

Where I do agree with the doomsters to coin a Borisism is the relative shortage of critical care resources in the UK compared to other countries. Toilet paper I have and can easily get and does not reassure me but the number of critical care beds in other continental EU does reassure me. 

Which merely endorses what I said three weeks ago. No country can adequately cope with the number of people requiring an IC unit. You can have five thousand or 10 thousand but when your system is swamped eg Whuhan, Iran, Italy, the game is up.

[T 190]

I agree on this point and always have done. That is why the strategy per the chief scientific adviser is to allow the inevitable escalation now so it peaks in the summer rather than delay until next winter and then take delay action later  to try to spread the peak over the summer.
 

I’d also agree that everywhere resource are likely to be strained but obviously more capacity is better than less capacity. Where the UK is good is that it’s centralised healthcare system allows for relatively good information and a national approach to deal with this. 

[Yellow Fever 3,783]

12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Which merely endorses what I said three weeks ago. No country can adequately cope with the number of people requiring an IC unit. You can have five thousand or 10 thousand but when your system is swamped eg Whuhan, Iran, Italy, the game is up.

Somebody said last night that the Chinese plan is to beat it back ruthlessly this year in the hope that they can hold it off until a vaccine (or herd immunity) can control it next year. Sensible plan.  

Edited March 10, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[ricardo 7,395]

I'm now off out with Mrs R to make the most of it before the shutters come down. A trip to Walsingham for coffee and who knows, maybe a look in at the shrine.🤔

I am a confirmed atheist but maybe time to take Pascal up on his wager😉😀😀😀😀

🤧🤧bless me.

[T 190]

That may be the case in China but the UK is not China. 
 

So some people are not practicing what they are preaching. I do hope they enjoy getting on with life though. 

[PurpleCanary 5,558]

16 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Hands up anyone whose view on the government response to the virus is tinged with confirmation bias (I'm looking at you purple canary...)

I think that's just a touch unfair.😥 I did say at the outset I didn't know if the government's approach was right or wrong. And I did only say it probably had crossed Johnson's mind to do the wrong thing for political reasons, not that he had actually done so!

[Yellow Fever 3,783]

2 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

I think that's just a touch unfair.😥 I did say at the outset I didn't know if the government's approach was right or wrong. And I did only say it probably had crossed Johnson's mind to do the wrong thing for political reasons, not that he had actually done so!

I think of Johnson a bit like a rabbit stuck in the headlights of an oncoming car.

[Herman 9,764]

41 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I'm now off out with Mrs R to make the most of it before the shutters come down. A trip to Walsingham for coffee and who knows, maybe a look in at the shrine.🤔

I am a confirmed atheist but maybe time to take Pascal up on his wager😉😀😀😀😀

🤧🤧bless me.

A trip to the confession box, recant your sins, a couple of Hail Marys and Our Father and no need for a hazmat suit. 🤒

[Yellow Fever 3,783]

9 minutes ago, Herman said:

A trip to the confession box, recant your sins, a couple of Hail Marys and Our Father and no need for a hazmat suit. 🤒

Isn't that Mike Pence ?

[ricardo 7,395]

40 minutes ago, Herman said:

A trip to the confession box, recant your sins, a couple of Hail Marys and Our Father and no need for a hazmat suit. 🤒

Good thinking, I have just arrived but will eat my large slice of Norfolk Shortcake first.😀

[T 190]

Same offical messages coming out of Scotland as England. Somehow I doubt that Sturgeon is conspiring with Boris.  

[Yellow Fever 3,783]

51 minutes ago, T said:

Same offical messages coming out of Scotland as England. Somehow I doubt that Sturgeon is conspiring with Boris.  

Some gallows humour needed.

It's all a bit too late now - horse has bolted and we're on the highroad to hell. Number doubling roughly every 4 days. In a month without severe intervention that's approx 32/4 =8 doubles or 2^8 increase i.e 256 times what we have now.

Say 500 today one way or another x 250 = 125,000. I wont even bother to calculate after a further month - we will reach saturation well before that and natural population balancers will have kicked in! 

 'Delay' hasn't worked (wasn't even attempted it appears).

The postmortem will happen later.

Edited March 10, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

Well I'm getting back into the stock market today. Looking at China, the epidemic has stabilised after a two-month period and the danger is against the elderly and not the work force. So while it may look bad now, everything is in place for China to pick up from where it left off and get those supply chains working again. We are behind the Chinese curve but no reason to see why the pattern in the rest of the world will be significantly different from the Chinese experience. Perhaps not in Africa but that has little impact on  the world economy.  No doubt there will be recurring waves of illness over the rest of the year but I think the stock market has discounted this in its current levels. With sold blue-chip companies down 20-33% there has never been a better time to pile back in and watch the markets rise over the next twelve months.

[Van wink 2,994]

Interesting read on our strengths and weaknesses.

How prepared is Britain for coronavirus pandemic? Sophisticated analysis shows three major gaps

• CLAIRE CASEY
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9 MARCH 2020 • 9:00PM

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Big cities like London need to be prepared to contain an outbreak. How will they manage restrictions on public transit? CREDIT: ANDY RAIN/EPA-EFE/SHUTTERSTOCK

In the wake of the 2014 Ebola outbreak, the UK was at the leading edge of efforts to improve the global system to prevent, detect and respond to epidemic threats.

Today, as Covid-19 rapidly spreads, it is one of the countries best prepared to manage this public health risk, but real gaps remain that could limit its ability to respond effectively to this or future outbreaks.

By some of the most important measures of health security, the UK is the global leader. It has a leading laboratory system and a robust capacity to test and approve new medical countermeasures.

It has a world class system for real-time surveillance and reporting, which was effectively used in the 2012 Olympics and Paralympics to monitor public health risks. It is also one of only 10 countries to have conducted joint biological threat focused-exercises with the World Heath Organization and published the results. 

Thanks to this important work, the UK scores number two, after the US, in the Global Health Security Index, the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security.

Covering 195 countries, the GHS Index assesses countries’ preparedness in six areas: prevention, detection, rapid response, strength of the health system, compliance with international norms, and the overall risk environment. It is in the latter three that the UK faces real challenges.

A country’s risk environment is a range of political, social, and economic factors that influence its ability to prevent outbreaks from becoming epidemics. For the UK, the risks are demographic: high levels of urbanisation and an aging population.

With 83 per cent of residents living in urban areas, the UK has one of the most urbanised populations in the world. The ease of movement in an urban setting creates more opportunities for potential transmission, and can make tracing the source of infection more difficult for public health officials.

Big cities like London need to be prepared to contain an outbreak. How will they manage restrictions on public transit, public schools, and big events? How will they provide enough dedicated hospital capacity to treat those that become sick? In areas with dense populations, disease spreads quickly, which makes containing an outbreak, such as Covid-19, much more challenging.

Like many other high-income countries, the UK also has a large older population – 18.4 per cent of people in the UK are over 65, more than double the global average. In any public health emergency, older adults are especially vulnerable, but only Scotland and Wales have publicly available plans that address this issue.

This could be a serious gap in preparedness in the case of Covid-19, with early studies pointing to a high median age of patients and higher mortality rates among older adults who contract the virus.

 

When an outbreak does occur, the strength of a country’s healthcare system and health workforce determine its ability to adequately treat the sick and protect health workers. And on this measure, the UK woefully underperforms thanks to chronic under-investment in the NHS.

While number two overall, the UK ranks 60th on healthcare access in the GHS Index. Among high income European countries, only Poland has fewer doctors per capita. Germany has almost half again as many at 419 doctors for every 100,000 people, compared to only 283 in the UK. The country also has less than half the hospital beds per capita of France, and only a third of what’s available in Germany.

This infrastructure will be tested in an outbreak and its effectiveness may vary between England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Just as the global community is only as strong as its weakest link, and the UK is only as strong as its weakest nation.

Whether this crisis or the next drives a long term and sustained investment in the health system remains to be seen, but the government is facing near term decisions on how to manage health security collaboration in its Brexit negotiations with the EU.

The GHS Index assesses compliance with international norms because cooperation between countries allows for vital information sharing to enable a more effective global response.

Historically, the UK has been a leader in this regard, and for good reason. Heathrow is the seventh most visited airport in the world, with more than 80 million passengers moving through it last year. The country’s health and economy are dependent on these flows.

But in the past week, there have been indications that the government might be considering withdrawal from important mechanisms for information sharing with its neighbours, including the EU’s Early Warning and Response System (EWRS).

This platform allows for the timely exchange of information to enable coordinated public health action, and played an important role in the response to outbreaks of Sars and bird flu. Simply put, diseases don’t respect borders. The decisions made today will have direct and profound effects on the ability of the UK to respond to Covid-19 and future outbreaks.

By all indications, Covid-19 will eventually be brought under control. It also offers an important opportunity for countries like the UK to address their vulnerabilities and better prepare for whatever will come next.

• Claire Casey is Global Managing Director of the Public Policy practice at the Economist Intelligence Unit, which developed the Global Health Security Index in partnership with the Nuclear Threat Initiative and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

 

 

[Essjayess 307]

Few snippets from elsewhere as this is a global issue.

Czech Republic has closed all schools and banned gatherings of 100 or more people until further notice. 41 infected cases, 3 new cases today.

Costa Rica has ordered all public employees to work from home. 9 infected cases.

Worries from two of the worlds biggest populations and also who have a high % of poverty.

Brazil. 30 Infected, 5 new cases today.

India. 56 Infected cases, 9 new cases today. The virus genie is unscrewing the bottle top there, if it gets out India cases could make China and Italy seem a walk in the park.

[ricardo 7,395]

It's ok, I have Self isolated at No 1 Fish n chips.😷

[Yellow Fever 3,783]

The (only) argument against closing larger sport gatherings, schools etc now to try to get ahead of the curve (as per nearly everywhere else) seems to be that it will sooner rather than later be ignored or undermined possibly when it is 'needed' most. The idea holds that people will go watch the footy in the pubs rather than stay at home etc. or kids meet up out of school (simple - ban the footy).

So we 'do nothing' - still go to sporting events, pubs, schools and whatever until the epidemic is in full swing and people (belatedly) then realise the need to isolate and shut everything down - after zillions are infected anyway and nicely brewing it along (how many days incubation ?).

Hmm. 

Where's the leadership if this is the case?

It's a policy of despair.

Guess the CMO and PHE have little confidence that the government can show any leadership whatsoever.

[Surfer 1,547]

1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

Well I'm getting back into the stock market today. Looking at China, the epidemic has stabilised after a two-month period and the danger is against the elderly and not the work force. So while it may look bad now, everything is in place for China to pick up from where it left off and get those supply chains working again. We are behind the Chinese curve but no reason to see why the pattern in the rest of the world will be significantly different from the Chinese experience. Perhaps not in Africa but that has little impact on  the world economy.  No doubt there will be recurring waves of illness over the rest of the year but I think the stock market has discounted this in its current levels. With sold blue-chip companies down 20-33% there has never been a better time to pile back in and watch the markets rise over the next twelve months.

RTB, I think it is fair to say that we agree on very little politically, but the above is something  I will agree wholeheartedly with. While the west goes through its panics about the virus’s impacts, the Chinese economy is quickly rebooting. I found it very Interesting to read about just how critical Wuhan is to the Chinese economy, and that had to have been a major factor for them in doing what they did. As for stocks, yes a good time to buy if you have the cash, but I suspect we will see several more down days ahead even though we have a significant rally this morning in New York. Will be interesting to see how the markets react to the political leadership here, my sense is they have tuned that nonsense out, but we may see another “Biden bounce”  if he wins most of the Democratic primary’s tonight.