Wuhan coronavirus

[ricardo 7,347]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

They have made a political choice and are hiding behind a scientific 'option'. No more and no less.

There was a chance to get ahead but they have jointly bottled it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SZBuHFzYlw

Dr Campbell not impressed.

[T 190]

Social distancing measures require agreement from the. CMO and chief scientific adviser. I think the govt would be in a difficult position if found to go against this advice given the impact of social distancing measures on society and the economy if the evidence did not justify it. .
 

I fully appreciate that some people disagree with the expert advice. Nothing they do will stop the apparent higher risk of getting it from family and friends as largely spread by close contact so unless you think the govt should stop you seeing family and friends and stop working than ultimately not a lot you can do. People also need to take responsibility for their actions and consequences themselves.  

[T 190]

Many thanks Indy. That is a lot better example of what I’ve been trying to say throughout. You can also argue whether the Covid 19 deaths are really fully down to Covid 19 or the underlying serious illnesses associated with Covid 19.deaths.  It does illustrate the sort of thinking that the CMO and scientific adviser will be doing and presenting to the government  

Gas pipes switched from metal to plastic because of an explosion which killed a number of people.  The political decision was to make the switch to plastic as it was high profile but a gas engineer told me that spending the money on smoke alarms would save more lives but these deaths were lower profile. It is an example that decisions should be made on a scientific rather than political basis. 

[ricardo 7,347]

Dow Jones suspended due to 'utter carnage in the markets'

[Essjayess 307]

4 hours ago, ricardo said:

Those that prepared don't need to panic. They listened to the expert advice that was freely available should anyone care to look. The complacent will always be one step behind the curve and by complacent, I mean all governments outside China, Japan and S.Korea. The most complacent of all, the USA will really suffer.

Sorry Ricardo, but in more than one post you have seemed to highlight China as a shining example of what can be done to  slow the increase of the virus, when China and its  unbelievable unhealthy style of living, coming from its own government, caused this virus in the first place. China made some horrific blunders when this virus first appeared, even trying to hush its doctors who had good knowledge of the dangers happening around them. They only finally acted in a massive regimental way when it was plain  that the virus was vastly more stronger than any ability to cover it up any longer. Of course to it helps when the entire population are "lovingly loyal" to its government and theirs to command  in an instant. Yes, China has pushed the numbers of new infections  down to a crawl, but  i will not praise them in any way for doing so, and to, the virus is still very much active there despite what even they have done.

We can see now from Italy what could and may happen in many nations when this virus  grabs hold of humans and and over runs it in so fast a pace that massive reaction needs  to take place by a government.  Good chance of it happening here to and peoples life style or attitude wont come into the equation. Boris and his government have already indicated they are willing to lockdown cities or areas should we land into a North Italy scenario. The question of how much a government should react to this virus, and when their actions take place i leave to others to debate. As a final word i will share a vid with you as Broadstairs has done. Got a bowl handy? Anyone for freshly made Bear Bile guys?

 

 

[ricardo 7,347]

No, China are not a shining example but at least have partialy redeemed themselves with appropriate action once TSHTF. Other countries dont appear to have learnt from the example with perhaps the exception of S Korea with their aggresive testing.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

Just now, T said:

Many thanks Indy. That is a lot better example of what I’ve been trying to say throughout. You can also argue whether the Covid 19 deaths are really fully down to Covid 19 or the underlying serious illnesses associated with Covid 19.deaths.  It does illustrate the sort of thinking that the CMO and scientific adviser will be doing and presenting to the government  

Gas pipes switched from metal to plastic because of an explosion which killed a number of people.  The political decision was to make the switch to plastic as it was high profile but a gas engineer told me that spending the money on smoke alarms would save more lives but these deaths were lower profile. It is an example that decisions should be made on a scientific rather than political basis. 

I have no problem at all with independent expert advice.

However - both PHE and CMO are not at this juncture truly 'independent' of the government. They are part of it.

Various options will have been modelled. The government has chosen one. Government must however speak with one voice.

One day those alternative options will also become public.

[T 190]

Dr Campbell is a nurse. Complete respect for nurses of course but he is a you tuber not an expert on this matter making his money from people clicking on his site so he is in the business of being sensationalist rather than scientific. Always good to check out the source. Perhaps he is also sponsored by dettol and mobile phone companies given his advice to clean phones with dettol. He is not a credible source. 

[ricardo 7,347]

There will be a change of tack when the SHTF. 

See the numbers as Spain becomes the new Italy. 

[T 190]

I think you are damned if you do and damned if you don’t take action. Whatever you do you will be found to have made mistakes with the benefit of hindsight. Following the scientific advice would seem the wisest and also the required option. The government has decided that going against economic advice is the politically expedient thing to do but I think they realise that being found to go against medical and scientific advice would put them in a very difficult position. And I’m certainly not in the Boris Fanclub. 

[Indy 3,283]

All this debate deserves credit, Ricardo you can be sure cruises will be stopped, US government today advised all US citizens not to cruise.

The stupid thing is, had the Chinese government took notice of the doctors advice earlier they wouldn’t have had such a severe outbreak so fast. The data and media overreaction has made everyone nervous and now had a huge impact on everything globally. There will be more issues and possible deaths by the reaction to the virus, which isn’t a global killer Itself but will target those high risk, mostly elderly with underlying issues.

If we all do the basics then the spread will be slower, possibly less severe, wash hands, stay isolated when you can, if you get the symptoms, even though you might of infected others prior to knowing you had symptoms, letting the authorities know to trace any potentially infected people. If you are elderly and have any serious health issues then use your noggin and stay clear of mass population events like football. 
 

Most people can go about their normal day, most who catch this will go through discomfort at home, but will come out the other end.....to close down the world because of this could have bigger Global long term impacts on health as countries won’t be able to afford to bounce back from a massive financial crash.

Soft sensible approach needed by everyone.

Edited March 9, 2020 by Indy

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

Agree - When people start to see many of their older loved ones in dire straits in more or less every family, the NHS in chaos otherwise for mundane tasks, their jobs at risk and the economic carnage the questions will start - why didn't we act sooner..... why weren't we told the truth?

If Johnson at least tries to get ahead of the game - even if ultimately ineffective - nobody would blame him.

However with current 'do nothing' policy - No Johnson waffle will save him. That's the political (let alone human) reality.

Edited March 9, 2020 by Yellow Fever
Rricardo -There will be a change of tack when the SHTF.

[ricardo 7,347]

Some interesting info on something that might help.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5yVGmfivAk

It is from a very large BMA study.

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

I haven't been following this argument in any detail, so I wouldn't presume to say who's right (or generally right) and who's ditto wrong. But...this is a government not heavily laden with talent. Nor a government obviously full of people willing to speak truth to power. Led by a rookie prime minister who - literally - will ignore a problem in the hope it just disappears by hiding in a fridge.

Plus who has staked his reputation on two key promises - to pour money into deprived areas that have voted Tory, and to produce a bountiful Brexit. Neither of which will be made easier (given that neither is easy in the first place) by draconian quarantine measures and the like aimed at keeping the coronavirus in check but which will damage the economy.

Johnson would not be Johnson if he was not at least tempted - in the face of conflicting advice - to take that which also fits in with what's best for his political future rather than that which has severe economic side effects.

[Van wink 2,994]

The government is following the advice of the Chief Medical officer and the Chief Scientific advisor. They are doing the right thing in my view.

[Barbe bleu 814]

Hands up anyone whose view on the government response to the virus is tinged with confirmation bias (I'm looking at you purple canary...)

[BigFish 1,986]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

However with current 'do nothing' policy - No Johnson waffle will save him. That's the political (let alone human) reality.

I wouldn't bet on that, was it not his hero Churchill who said never let a good crisis go to waste and to date Johnson has survived several gaffs that would have ended the career of a less slippery chancer. Never gets mentioned that the Tories have axed 17,000 NHS beds and is running with a staff shortage of the order of 100,000. Wednesday's budget will be sold on its emergency measures which will cover up the fact that there is no infrastructure plan, levelling up or promised tax cuts. Drag this out until next year and Johnson will be able to cover his **** over the failed Brexit talks. This is a gift to his career.

[ricardo 7,347]

29 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

 

Johnson would not be Johnson if he was not at least tempted - in the face of conflicting advice - to take that which also fits in with what's best for his political future rather than that which has severe economic side effects.

There is nothing any government can do to prevent the coming economic effects which are going to be global. He would be better off to be seen taking action to save lives. 

[Barbe bleu 814]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

However with current 'do nothing' policy - No Johnson waffle will save him. That's the political (let alone human) reality.

Is that the policy, Do nothing?

Is it possible that the government has been quietly going around making plans, stockpiling essentials; speaking with event organisers and recently retired health professionals; booking hotels and sports centres as quarantine areas etc but not made a fuss of it so as not to alarm?

 

 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[ricardo 7,347]

Italy numbers horrendous today.

[BigFish 1,986]

3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

There is nothing any government can do to prevent the coming economic effects which are going to be global. He would be better off to be seen taking action to save lives. 

The government's economic policies were in chaos before the virus, watch them bank it as a get out of jail free card of the consequences.

[BroadstairsR 2,138]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Some interesting info on something that might help.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5yVGmfivAk

It is from a very large BMA study.

I always take Vit. D supplements in the Winter when it is more necessary due not just to lack of sunlight as can filter through cloud cover onto the skin when it is not too high in the sky, but also because I/we spend more time indoors due to the weather.

It's always been known to be beneficial to the immune system and there's only  so much fatty fish you can eat but that video was extra informant and very interesting, especially the piece about why our skins turned white in the first place.

I have just ordered an extra dose just in case I need incarceration in the coming weeks/months.

[ricardo 7,347]

11 minutes ago, BigFish said:

The government's economic policies were in chaos before the virus, watch them bank it as a get out of jail free card of the consequences.

Helicopter money incoming.

[Van wink 2,994]

20 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Is that the policy, Do nothing?

Is it possible that the government has been quietly going around making plans, stockpiling essentials; speaking with event organisers and recently retired health professionals; booking hotels and sports centres as quarantine areas etc but not made a fuss of it so as not to alarm?

 

 

The CMO is imo doing a really good job, there is a clear model being followed designed to flatten the peak and spread the outbreak over a more managable period. 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Van wink

[ricardo 7,347]

Never mind the Cheltenham Festival is on tomorrow.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

19 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Is that the policy, Do nothing?

Is it possible that the government has been quietly going around making plans, stickpiling essential; speaking with event organisers and recently retired health professionals; , booking hotels and sports centres as quarantine areas etc but not made a fuss of it so as not to alarm1

 

 

We are talking about the 'Delay' or is it still 'Contain' phase not 'Mitigation'. 

Quite clearly beyond contact tracing of those known to have the disease the government as of now (and it appears next week too) are taking no practical action to delay the spread of the disease.

I might not expect them to go for a full lock down at present but stopping significant gatherings now would seem sensible and practical.

[T 190]

Boris has shown on Brexit he is willing to ignore expert advice and do the best for himself rather than the country but while I thick it is bizarre he is PM I’m willing to believe he does have some morals. Trump not so sure. 

[Van wink 2,994]

Anybody seen a definition of what "underlying health condition" is when used in the context of Corvid 19 deaths.

" a sixty year old man with an underlying health condition"  this implies serious ill health, that qualification certainly would reassure, `but could it for example mean a sixty year old man who was taking a statin and a blood pressure tablet?

[Van wink 2,994]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

We are talking about the 'Delay' or is it still 'Contain' phase not 'Mitigation'. 

Quite clearly beyond contact tracing of those known to have the disease the government as of now (and it appears next week too) are taking no practical action to delay the spread of the disease.

I might not expect them to go for a full lock down at present but stopping significant gatherings now would seem sensible and practical.

Thats not the advice of the CMO
 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Band name and song lyrics very topical