Is 'The Model' flawed?

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

Recently I criticised the clubs lack of summer spending and the consensus on here was that I needed to understand 'the model' in order to accept our decision not to invest in improving the first team this season. 

Some of the replies were respectful, some of them were not very pleasant at all, others I found a little bit abstract and bizarre.

So I decided to reflect again on 'the model',  and our apparent decision to just accept relegation this season, finish this season with a significant cash surplus, and then use that money to continue building next season, find another Buendia or two and presumably come back stronger. But at the same time ensure that we can survive / Fund the academy for a bit if we don't come back up. 

Essentially this is what people are saying I think? Only, this isn't anything at all new. West Brom yo-yo'd a few times and kept their squad together, getting a little stronger with each promotion and eventually having a sustained spell in the top tier. 

The bit that I can't get my head around is how supporters of this surrender envisage us being able to go down with any sort of team spirit or togetherness left after what will likely be the worst season in the top flight in our history? 

Expect fall outs, expect players desperate to leave, expect players blaming each other, agents already on their phones. This is football we are taking about, the cracks are already beginning to appear. 

A promoted teams biggest asset is their team spirit and togetherness, they've all just achieved something fantastic together, all contributed to each others success. Momentum can take a team a long way. 

But that can all change very quickly, these players were thrown to the lions the day we decided not to add a bit more quality and physicality to the squad. 

How on earth do proponents of 'the model' expect this team to recover their collective trust and respect of each other, the togetherness they had, even the belief in their individual abilities after what will be a completely humiliating season? 

We'll end up needing a complete rebuild again, and then what? 14th whilst a new team figures eachother out, then promotion and... Rinse and repeat? 

What I feel people are missing when they say we can't afford to spend is that if you spend well on players of the right age and profile you can recoup the fee if you need to. You think if we spend £15m on a top Championship winger we wouldn't be able to get £10m back for him in the event we are relegated and he doesn't set the world alight? 

You are buying asset. Assets can be bought and sold. What do you think we did with Leroy Fer? 

Sheffield United had the right idea, which was to spend some money improving their side. 

It's great that we won't have to sell Jamal Lewis next season if we go down, whereas if we bought a £12m Dutch left back we probably would... But is this lad going to be the same player after a season this torrid? 

We ever considered the mental impact on these players of such a humiliating surrender? They never had a chance. 

Edited November 8, 2019 by TeemuVanBasten

[Flying Dutchman 744]

1 minute ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

Recently I criticised

Should have stopped there. That basically sums you up nicely I think.

[king canary 7,577]

It depends how you define 'the model.'

For me the model of buying younger, talented players with half an eye on their resale value one or two years down the line, combined with an investment in our own academy is more than workable. It isn't easy but it is doable.

However, no model will work with such minimal investment.

[Making Plans 936]

More like "floored".

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

6 minutes ago, king canary said:

It depends how you define 'the model.'

For me the model of buying younger, talented players with half an eye on their resale value one or two years down the line, combined with an investment in our own academy is more than workable. It isn't easy but it is doable.

However, no model will work with such minimal investment.

I like that model, if we're talking £3m to £5m players

But that doesn't appear to be the model.

Take Van Djik and Wanyama for example when they joined Celtic. They would probably have considered any Premier League side (as did Maddison when we signed him).

But newly relegated Championship side who finished rock bottom with very few points? That's the flaw in spending after relegation I fear?

Edited November 8, 2019 by TeemuVanBasten

[king canary 7,577]

9 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

The bit that I can't get my head around is how supporters of this surrender envisage us being able to go down with any sort of team spirit or togetherness left after what will likely be the worst season in the top flight in our history? 

Completely agree with this. People point to Burnley going up, spending little before relegation and then bouncing back but that Burnley team got 33 points and made a solid go of staying up.

[Cantiaci Canary 556]

If we aren't going to sell out to a billionaire then this is the only way.

 

SPENDING £30m - £100M WOULDN'T HAVE ASSURED SURVIVAL ... but would have snookered us financially.

 

We have tried doing it the other way before and got burned. 

We may not stay up (or return next season) but this is the cleverest way to GRADUALLY evolve and hopefully one day be strong enough to stay up and flourish.

Edited November 8, 2019 by Cantiaci Canary

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

11 minutes ago, Flying Dutchman said:

Should have stopped there. That basically sums you up nicely I think.

Perhaps I should praise Webber for only getting in front of a camera after a win. Lapped up the national media plaudits after the Man City win, more shy than Jez Moxey at the first sign of discontent.

[Fuzzar 1,702]

2 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

Perhaps I should praise Webber for only getting in front of a camera after a win. Lapped up the national media plaudits after the Man City win, more shy than Jez Moxey at the first sign of discontent.

He was interviewed before the match on the pitch. 

[Herman 9,710]

13 minutes ago, Cantiaci Canary said:

If we aren't going to sell out to a billionaire then this is the only way.

 

SPENDING £30m - £100M WOULDN'T HAVE ASSURED SURVIVAL ... but would have snookered us financially.

 

We have tried doing it the other way before and got burned. 

We may not stay up (or return next season) but this is the cleverest way to GRADUALLY evolve and hopefully one day be strong enough to stay up and flourish.

This.

(Although I am seriously struggling to keep the faith I know this is the right thing for us to do.)

[king canary 7,577]

30 minutes ago, Cantiaci Canary said:

If we aren't going to sell out to a billionaire then this is the only way.

 

SPENDING £30m - £100M WOULDN'T HAVE ASSURED SURVIVAL ... but would have snookered us financially.

 

We have tried doing it the other way before and got burned. 

We may not stay up (or return next season) but this is the cleverest way to GRADUALLY evolve and hopefully one day be strong enough to stay up and flourish.

Is it 'the only way' though? Our transfer spend this summer wasn't just a little less than most, it was the lowest in the last 5 seasons for a promotes club. The idea we couldn't afford to spend £20-30m doesn't make a lick of sense to me.

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

10 minutes ago, king canary said:

Is it 'the only way' though? Our transfer spend this summer wasn't just a little less than most, it was the lowest in the last 5 seasons for a promotes club. The idea we couldn't afford to spend £20-30m doesn't make a lick of sense to me.

Neither me.

I honestly thought we'd spend about £20m/£25m. A nice conservative amount which wouldn't have crippled us (remember we have parachute payments to come). 

Perhaps £10m + £5m + £5m, on players aged 22/23/24 with their best years ahead of them.

McNally went off script by signing 29/30 year olds at the end, but he ultimately did similar when we came up and signed Howson, Bennett, Pilkington, Bennett, Johnson.... still had Howson what, 6 years later.

I honestly thought that this was going to be the model (but with 'sexier' or slightly more sophisticated players). That going up just meant that the £2m we spent on Hernandez and £1.5m on Buendia, the TV money would allow us to snap up a few targets in the £5m/£6m range that we'd been unable to afford in the Championship but who would significantly improve us, even if it were only for a promotion challenge again next season.

I just thought it meant a few Bundesliga players to upgrade a few Bundesliga II players, but spending conservatively because in the longer term we want our academy to produce a bit more consistently and we'd be bringing through a player where suitable or if one is simply good enough. 

I just honestly thought this was going to be the strategy or 'the model', and I probably still don't understand the actual model, and I think a few people are pretending that they do. 

Edited November 8, 2019 by TeemuVanBasten

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 3,777]

Webber told us before the season started that there would be bad defeats and tough times, and that we needed to be strong and accept it rather than panicking. We generally accepted this as we knew deep down we'd take the odd hammering and we'd have lean spells but honestly, did anyone expect us to go through a run of form this bad? 

I still support the model, I still support Webber and I still support Farke. But a seven-game run of just one point and two goals (both late consolations when the match had been over for at least 20 minutes) does make it difficult at times, and it does make me question if 'the model' is realistic for our club or just a utopian fantasy. It will be wonderful if it comes off, but almost every acquisition needs to be perfect and the academy has to consistently produce one or two players with Premier League potential every year.

[hogesar 9,615]

44 minutes ago, king canary said:

Completely agree with this. People point to Burnley going up, spending little before relegation and then bouncing back but that Burnley team got 33 points and made a solid go of staying up.

Way too premature to say we wont make a solid go of staying up. I'm hoping a good amount of people on here are going to look as silly as they did last season. Might not happen, but I can certainly hope so.

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

1 minute ago, hogesar said:

Way too premature to say we wont make a solid go of staying up. I'm hoping a good amount of people on here are going to look as silly as they did last season. Might not happen, but I can certainly hope so.

I'd delighted to 'look silly', here's hoping I look silly.

Of course the alternative may be that you look silly, or just utterly deluded, when you read back your tripe about a 'model' that you couldn't explain if you tried. 

[king canary 7,577]

2 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Way too premature to say we wont make a solid go of staying up. I'm hoping a good amount of people on here are going to look as silly as they did last season. Might not happen, but I can certainly hope so.

Of course you can hope so. I just can't point to any signs we will. At least when we started poorly last season you could point out some positives in the performances. Right now all we've got is hope we look different once Zimmerman is back.

[hogesar 9,615]

Just now, TeemuVanBasten said:

I'd delighted to 'look silly', here's hoping I look silly.

Of course the alternative may be that you look silly, or just utterly deluded, when you read back your tripe about a 'model' that you couldn't explain if you tried. 

Yeah course I could look silly.

But put it this way, I trust Webbers judgement far more than I do you. So I'll put my eggs in his basket, so to speak.

Also, I shouldn't have to explain the model. The club have done it for me, continuously, since Webber joined. 

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

8 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Yeah course I could look silly.

But put it this way, I trust Webbers judgement far more than I do you. So I'll put my eggs in his basket, so to speak.

Also, I shouldn't have to explain the model. The club have done it for me, continuously, since Webber joined. 

I don't recall them ever saying that once promoted they weren't going to spend any money.

If they had I wouldn't have celebrated quite as much as I did, and this entire forum wouldn't have bothered discussing transfer speculation all summer.

You are claiming undying support for a model in retrospect. 

I'm still not entirely sure that the club didn't just fail to spend money, rather than opt not to spend money (because I'm not pretending to understand the ins and outs of 'the model' like you), but it feels very much like a fail either way. 

The model may well be 'establish a Premier League side on Championship wages', which would explain Webber's surprise at the wage bill when he arrived and the failure to sign any Premier League standard players in the summer. But if that is the difference between a Johnny Howson at 27 and a Kenny McLean at 27 then I'd point to that as being evidence that you get what you largely get what you pay for. 

Edited November 8, 2019 by TeemuVanBasten

[glory.win or die. 270]

The model we have for the club is simply the only model we can work to, and ensure the club survives.

Unless we are bankrolled by Russian,US or middle east billionaires we have no choice so, as frustrating as it is when we simply struggle to compete,we have no other option. We could risk the club and spend every penny of the £90m or whatever it is we get from the prem, and end up as good as Watford, who are just marginally less **** than us. So we get relegated and the club becomes Bury

[hogesar 9,615]

9 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

I don't recall them ever saying that once promoted they weren't going to spend any money.

If they had I wouldn't have celebrated quite as much as I did, and this entire forum wouldn't have bothered discussing transfer speculation all summer.

You are claiming undying support for a model in retrospect. 

I'm still not entirely sure that the club didn't just fail to spend money, rather than opt not to spend money (because I'm not pretending to understand the ins and outs of 'the model' like you), but it feels very much like a fail either way. 

The model may well be 'establish a Premier League side on Championship wages', which would explain Webber's surprise at the wage bill when he arrived and the failure to sign any Premier League standard players in the summer. But if that is the difference between a Johnny Howson at 27 and a Kenny McLean at 27 then I'd point to that as being evidence that you get what you largely get what you pay for. 

Did I think we would spend more than we have? Yep. Thought we'd be around 20 mill rather than 7. But I think the club were quite vocal in saying we wouldnt be spending big fees.

I understand your Howson and McLean comparison but we still got relegated with 'prem standard' Howson and we still got promoted with 'not prem standard' McLean. I also dont think with a fully fit midfield McLean gets this much game time either, personally. But that's a little irrelevant.

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

4 minutes ago, glory.win or die. said:

We could risk the club and spend every penny of the £90m or whatever it is we get from the prem, and end up as good as Watford, who are just marginally less **** than us. So we get relegated and the club becomes Bury

Such hyperbole. 

Spending £750k on Byram is one extreme, spending £100m like Fulham is the other extreme.

I was merely expecting us to spend £20m to £25m on players with their best years ahead of them, those who have a good chance of increasing in value but would otherwise remain handy for us in the Championship if we go down. 

And how on earth would we 'become Bury' doing that, when we've got 2 years of parachute payments ahead of us and several players in the team with a healthy resale value? 

McNally got his business spot on for 3 or 4 years, just lost the plot at the end. I'm not advocating giving 3.5 year contracts to 30 year olds on £50k a week, common sense applies.

I wouldn't even have expected us to spend £43m like Sheffield United (our promotion bonus probably double theirs, and we had that bond to repay, so take £10m off that for a start).

So from what I can gather if we stick with the model we are the next Barcelona, abandon the model and we are going extinct like Bury. This is madness people, get a grip! 

Or if you want another analogy, I don't support Corbyn borrowing hundreds of billions of pounds or his peoples quantitative easing, but I also believe the Tory's went too far on austerity. We are George Osbourne, I' thought we'd be a bit more Vince Cable, I'm not expecting us to go all John McDonnell.  

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

7 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Did I think we would spend more than we have? Yep. Thought we'd be around 20 mill rather than 7. But I think the club were quite vocal in saying we wouldnt be spending big fees.

I understand your Howson and McLean comparison but we still got relegated with 'prem standard' Howson and we still got promoted with 'not prem standard' McLean. I also dont think with a fully fit midfield McLean gets this much game time either, personally. But that's a little irrelevant.

When we got promoted to this league for the first time under McNally we invested in a group of up and coming younger players who would become an essential part of the teams core, some of whom would remain at the club following relegation and play a part in our return to this league - including Howson and Johnson (who scored 15 goals).

Players with 7,8,10 years ahead of them in the game are an investment (some won't pay dividends, some will, you need to get more right than wrong). Players like Naismith are a fast depreciating asset, guarenteed. It annoys me when people constantly mention Naismith, because it is obvious that there are lower risk ways of spending money.

Yes if you spend £5m on a player he may be here in 6 years or he may be sent packing like Franke, but I saw this as an opportunity to sign a few off of the 'A list' from last season who perhaps felt they could do a bit better than the Championship or were a bit out of our reach financially in the league below but on a 3 year deal would be feasible with parachute payments considered.

If we get relegated in the summer I'm assuming we aren't going to be signing anybody expensive, because they won't want a 2 year deal will they? A 3 year deal for that bit of extra quality would have had to start this past summer to not become high risk (extend beyond parachute payments).

I remain confused about the big idea. 

Edited November 8, 2019 by TeemuVanBasten

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

2 minutes ago, adam72 said:

Of course it's flawed. It's all waffle from board level and most on here have swallowed it big time.

Any club with a model of getting to the Premier league would have ambitions of staying there to become an established club.

The trouble is your board got have there and have banked all that money knowing fall well they were letting DF down.

They probably told(guessing here as i don't know) the gullible amongst you lot that you are going to stick with the team that got you up and the EXCITING YOUNG PLAYERS DK HAS.  Spinning it so it looks good and plausible.

it's extremely difficult getting promoted from the Championship and you would have thought DF was giving a small warchest to compete at the very least. Instead he was given what Delia would spend in Marks and Spencer's on a Saturday morning.

So, no there isn't a model. Just some very healthy personal bank accounts at  boardroom. level.

There is no way you are a Brighton fan, you've been here a while.

If you are a Brighton fan then why are you still here you sad act? I can honestly say I've never looked at your forum. 

I'm a Norwich fan so I'm allowed to say that Norwich are sh*t on a Norwich forum. You aren't, apparently, so you can do one. 

Off you trot.  

 

Edited November 8, 2019 by TeemuVanBasten

[ricardo 7,339]

The model only falls down when you cant get back to the Prem in time for another money top up. Spend more than three seasons in the Championship and basically it starts to fall apart.

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

6 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The model only falls down when you cant get back to the Prem in time for another money top up. Spend more than three seasons in the Championship and basically it starts to fall apart.

2 years in the Championship, because we only get 2 years parachute payments if you go down at first attempt.

Panic starts after the 1st failed attempt though, last time after 1 year we had a complete rebuild and finished 14th in the 2nd year. 

So its straight back up to keep the squad mainly intact, otherwise complete rebuild again? 

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 3,777]

6 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

There is no way you are a Brighton fan, you've been here a while.

If you are a Brighton fan then why are you still here you sad act? I can honestly say I've never looked at your forum. 

I'm a Norwich fan so I'm allowed to say that Norwich are sh*t on a Norwich forum. You aren't, apparently, so you can do one. 

Off you trot.  

 

Precisely this. A Brighton fan would come on, make a thread, maybe reply a little and then go again. They wouldn't go to the trouble of uploading a profile picture just to make one thread, and they wouldn't spend all evening on here a week later just bashing Delia.

It's clearly a Norwich fan who hates Delia.

[ricardo 7,339]

1 minute ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

2 years in the Championship, because we only get 2 years parachute payments if you go down at first attempt.

Panic starts after the 1st failed attempt though, last time after 1 year we had a complete rebuild and finished 14th in the 2nd year. 

So its straight back up to keep the squad mainly intact, otherwise complete rebuild again? 

There is also the necessary sale of the 20 million quid player every three years.

Nice when it works.😀

[Half Ar5ed Hipster 82]

It starts and doesn’t end with Farke and Webber. They came into play at a time when this club was on its knees. They picked it up, and started an influence that I hope will continue into the years post them leaving. Prior to that we had players like Lafferty, Naismith and Bassong on silly long term contracts that only served to undermine the clubs resources. It’s **** now but look at Norwich, dining at the table of the premier league having spent nothing in summer, having a team that can and will compete, having an ethos which will outstrip most modern clubs. Better this than the desperate attempts at spending on old heads who have no standing for the club they kick a ball for. It’s ****, our current suffering, but the future is well considered rather than be a Bolton or Sunderland or Stoke. 

[Capt. Pants 4,195]

I could accept the model if we played a young centre half which enabled us to strengthen the midfield. Instead we played a makeshift  team in a match that we simply must not lose. Last week at Brighton we were shocking and the exact same team is rewarded with yet another start in arguably our most important match of the season. Sorry but that was not great from Farke and leaves us nailed on relegation.

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

4 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

I could accept the model if we played a young centre half which enabled us to strengthen the midfield. Instead we played a makeshift  team in a match that we simply must not lose. Last week at Brighton we were shocking and the exact same team is rewarded with yet another start in arguably our most important match of the season. Sorry but that was not great from Farke and leaves us nailed on relegation.

Add to that not giving Roberts a chance on the right and allowing Buendia to play his natural game as a #10.

I think Buendia could be a top class number 10, he's never going to be suitable to playing so deep.

Its the equivalent of when we tried to play Hoolahan as a winger.... we're not going to get the most out of arguably our most naturally talented player when he's left doing so many defensive duties.

He should press in that number 10 role of course, but he should never be back helping the right back out.