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BBC article - Summer transfer window: Who carried out the best business?

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/49319480
 

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Premier League new boys Norwich City got the steal of the summer.

They bought Sam Byram from West Ham for just £747,000. He was valued at £27.7m by the selling club but is significantly lower for Norwich at £7m. They have still secured a player with Premier League experience for just over 10% of his monetary value though.

 

Interesting read and highlights how smart our recruitment strategy is.

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I read this too and was suitably encouraged.  More generally it will be interesting to see if we can defy convention and do OK.

All the fuss around the new season and the general mantra of 'don't spend, don't survive' has led to a broad dismissal of our chances, much to the annoyance of most supporters and rightly so.

I think we have to be patient and, come the end of the season, if we have survived then we will get all the plaudits we deserve.  We don't need to have them now.

 

 

 

 

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That piece has been pretty heavily panned in the analytics community.

The 'intrinsic values' don't seem to represent reality at all and with no explanation how these values are determined it is a pretty counter productive article. It is basically a press release from this company with very little editorial oversight. 

There is no way Sam Bryam is worth £27m or Delph is worth £50m. I do agree that the Bryam deal was a very good one for Norwich though, but trying to put numbers on just how good it is seems redundant. 

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10 minutes ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

That piece has been pretty heavily panned in the analytics community.

The 'intrinsic values' don't seem to represent reality at all and with no explanation how these values are determined it is a pretty counter productive article. It is basically a press release from this company with very little editorial oversight. 

There is no way Sam Bryam is worth £27m or Delph is worth £50m. I do agree that the Bryam deal was a very good one for Norwich though, but trying to put numbers on just how good it is seems redundant. 

I read something about intrinsic valuations of players yesterday, actually. Mainly because I read the linked article in the OP and wondered what the hell it meant!

The piece I read didn't entirely explain it either! It seems to be determined in different ways by different clubs.

This is the article, if you fancy a look- https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/22/sports/soccer/premier-league-transfers.html

Edited by BobLoz3

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10 hours ago, splendidrush said:

If Byram was valued at 27 million, what's Max worth?

As the season progresses don't be too surprised to see Aarons benched for the more experienced Byram.

The latter may even start against Newcastle.

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28 minutes ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

That piece has been pretty heavily panned in the analytics community.

The 'intrinsic values' don't seem to represent reality at all and with no explanation how these values are determined it is a pretty counter productive article. It is basically a press release from this company with very little editorial oversight. 

There is no way Sam Bryam is worth £27m or Delph is worth £50m. I do agree that the Bryam deal was a very good one for Norwich though, but trying to put numbers on just how good it is seems redundant. 

Completely agree Bethnal. I was reading this piece on the BBC and thinking 'how on earth have they come up with these figures?'. 

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1 hour ago, Jools said:

As the season progresses don't be too surprised to see Aarons benched for the more experienced Byram.

The latter may even start against Newcastle.

I'd be very surprised, personally. Aarons is a guaranteed starter at this point and will need an injury or a catastrophic loss of form to lose his place.

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1 hour ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

There is no way Sam Bryam is worth £27m or Delph is worth £50m. I do agree that the Bryam deal was a very good one for Norwich though, but trying to put numbers on just how good it is seems redundant. 

To be fair, Bethnal, we’ve just seen Tyrone Mings go for £25m in this summers transfer window so in the scheme of things... 

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Just now, Alex Moss said:

To be fair, Bethnal, we’ve just seen Tyrone Mings go for £25m in this summers transfer window so in the scheme of things... 

Mings had just had an excellent season for Villa so can see why he cost that much. I know there is a lot of hate for Mings due to his Ipswich past, but it is hard to argue with the impact he had on Villa's season. 

 

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2 hours ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

That piece has been pretty heavily panned in the analytics community.

The 'intrinsic values' don't seem to represent reality at all and with no explanation how these values are determined it is a pretty counter productive article. It is basically a press release from this company with very little editorial oversight. 

There is no way Sam Bryam is worth £27m or Delph is worth £50m. I do agree that the Bryam deal was a very good one for Norwich though, but trying to put numbers on just how good it is seems redundant. 

Yes the article is not much more than a dressed up press release, although that's true of a lot of 'journalism' these days. How they determine the ratings and values is presumably their secret sauce so understandably they don't give much away. It could all be **** of course.

I did find this rather grandly titled "Quantitative Analysis Research Paper" on the Harry Maguire transfer that gives a tiny bit more detail on their methodology:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UVpfbYYXY4zy2y3wZbgR0iwIqRF2J1pS/view

Quote

*Carteret Rating: this is a proprietary method of determining how good a player really is. It is a significant and leading-edge algorithm. We assess a player by identifying every match in which he has been involved (for which we have data) and identifying the key events in each and every one of those matches. These Key Match Events (“KMEs”) are events that led to a goal being scored; could have led to a goal being scored; led to a goal being conceded; or could have led to a goal being conceded. Then, for each and every KME, in each and every single match, we analyse that player’s contribution to each of those KMEs. This is a substantial piece of analysis, and one which produces a unique Carteret Rating for the player. It is a dynamic rating, and it changes with each additional match played.

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Carteret Analytics has also extended the Carteret Rating to give each player an Intrinsic Value (in monetary terms). This is essentially the value of the player ‘in use’ - the monetary value of his contribution to his club winning football matches. It is a sophisticated financial calculation - utilising proprietary algorithms - and which can be applied to and by other clubs. This enables, for example, a prospective buying club to virtually (yet objectively) ‘transplant’ a player into its own team to determine his potential Intrinsic Value for the buying club. Once the prospective buying club has this information, it can help inform them of the appropriate transfer fee to offer to the player’s current club.

 

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21 minutes ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

Mings had just had an excellent season for Villa so can see why he cost that much. I know there is a lot of hate for Mings due to his Ipswich past, but it is hard to argue with the impact he had on Villa's season. 

 

I agree, Bethnal, love him or loathe him there is no denying he had a good season for Villa in the Championship. And I’m sure Sam would have made no less an impact in the Championship had he found himself on loan there last season hypothetically speaking. It’s just I find it all a bit funny, and my reasons for this are -

Both Byram and Mings have a similar background, highly coveted in the Championship, both have come to the Premier League in recent years and probably hit about the same level for West Ham and Bournemouth respectively (though it could be argued that Sam has proven himself a fraction more if anything), Sam is 25, Tyrone is 26.

In summary, I cannot see how on earth Mings has gone for £25m+, and that Sam has only gone for only £750k+. I would conclude we’ve made a very smart bit of business - the valuation gap is utterly ridiculous and on the evidence above, far from accurate!

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47 minutes ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

I'd be very surprised, personally. Aarons is a guaranteed starter at this point and will need an injury or a catastrophic loss of form to lose his place.

So, you don't rate Byram?

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2 hours ago, Jools said:

As the season progresses don't be too surprised to see Aarons benched for the more experienced Byram.

The latter may even start against Newcastle.

If Byram starts against Newcy instead of Aarons for tactical reasons, I will donate £10 to the CSF

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2 hours ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

Mings had just had an excellent season for Villa so can see why he cost that much. I know there is a lot of hate for Mings due to his Ipswich past, but it is hard to argue with the impact he had on Villa's season. 

 

It’s not just his Ipswich past.

 

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2 hours ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

Byram is okay, Aarons is better.

Byram will only get ahead of Aarons for cup games and should Max get injured.

He’s also a great replacement should we get relegated and decide to sell Aarons on.

Byram is a class RB at Championship level.

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