The Positive Brexit Thread

[A Load of Squit 5,223]

21 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Green gain from Tory loss. 

This is curious.

The Tory press have been complaining that Johnsons conversion to green issues is terrible but the conclusion from the poll is that the voters are prepared to vote Green instead of Conservative.

[1902 1,167]

9 hours ago, SwindonCanary said:

There's a whole world to trade with, it should not be kept to the EU 

List the countries we couldn't trade with before, then list the countries we will see increased trade with and the products they will now buy?

Then explain how that will make up for the trade lost.

 

[1902 1,167]

17 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

This is curious.

The Tory press have been complaining that Johnsons conversion to green issues is terrible but the conclusion from the poll is that the voters are prepared to vote Green instead of Conservative.

Possibly, but it's also possible it's a general shift left. Gains for the greens from Labour in the aftermath of the climate based publicity from COP, gains for Labour from the Tories due to sleaze. 

Headline figures can't give us any idea about that unfortunately.

[Yellow Fever 3,839]

15 hours ago, SwindonCanary said:

The less deals we do with the EU the better 

"He needs to stir up the anti EU lot to keep himself popular - it's a wonderful distraction for the ill informed. Jingoistic rabble rousing needs an enemy."

Step forward Swindon Canary.

 

 

[Yellow Fever 3,839]

14 minutes ago, 1902 said:

Possibly, but it's also possible it's a general shift left. Gains for the greens from Labour in the aftermath of the climate based publicity from COP, gains for Labour from the Tories due to sleaze. 

Headline figures can't give us any idea about that unfortunately.

I think these Polls are more to do with COP - the sleaze effect is yet to show. Next week.

[horsefly 4,318]

9 hours ago, SwindonCanary said:

There's a whole world to trade with, it should not be kept to the EU 

Oh dear! such ignorance.

1. We seek to trade with ALL countries.

2. Only a country attempting to commit economic suicide would attempt to cut down its trade with its affluent neighbours and main market.

3. The government's own National Audit Office has calculated that brexit has cost the country £17bn in trade with the EU so far (see above).

4. Brexit losses are 178 times greater than the "gains" from new trade deals with non-EU countries (see above)

5. As COP26 continues to demonstrate the need for a drastic reduction in our carbon footprint, only a simpleton could think it is a wise move to sacrifice trade with the EU in favour of countries many thousands of miles distant.

6. You claimed to have worked for a car manufacturer in Swindon, please tell us where the majority of those cars were exported. And please tell us where you think the remaining car manufacturers intend to export their cars.

7. I needn't add any more points because the idea we should cut down trade with the EU is self-evidently idiotic.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

23 minutes ago, 1902 said:

Possibly, but it's also possible it's a general shift left. Gains for the greens from Labour in the aftermath of the climate based publicity from COP, gains for Labour from the Tories due to sleaze. 

Headline figures can't give us any idea about that unfortunately.

it will be very nuanced, but does show how moving the green agenda higher in main stream media coverage does influence people, more of the same for me.

[SwindonCanary 455]

6 minutes ago, horsefly said:

You claimed to have worked for a car manufacturer in Swindon, please tell us where the majority of those cars were exported. And please tell us where you think the remaining car manufacturers intend to export their cars

top five sales markets for MINI worldwide by volume have been
the UK, USA, Germany, Italy and Japan.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

Brexit was only ever going to be a world of hurt in the aftermath of the exit process, but the post-Brexit process is well underway. 

CPTPP is the crucial element in the UK's future as a non-EU member. The trade agreement has 13 existing members as well as Taiwan and China having just applied for entry. Once in CPTPP, membership provides a great platform to build trade elsewhere with like-minded democracies without it ever becoming a body seeking ever-closer union. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/first-meeting-uks-cptpp-inclusion-be-held-month-japan-minister-says-2021-09-01/

France's obvious desire to tilt more to an Asia-Pacific strategy will mean the EU will have to engage positively with CPTPP, which means it will be in the EU's interest to get on a more positive footing with the UK, which is not the case at present. 

Edited November 9, 2021 by littleyellowbirdie

[A Load of Squit 5,223]

7 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

top five sales markets for MINI worldwide by volume have been
the UK, USA, Germany, Italy and Japan.

This data is from 2014.

The world has changed quite significantly in the last couple of years.

Do you have any up to date figures?

[horsefly 4,318]

14 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

top five sales markets for MINI worldwide by volume have been
the UK, USA, Germany, Italy and Japan.

So we only make and sell mini's in this country as far as you are concerned.

[BigFish 1,988]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Green gain from Tory loss. 

 

1 hour ago, A Load of Squit said:

This is curious.

The Tory press have been complaining that Johnsons conversion to green issues is terrible but the conclusion from the poll is that the voters are prepared to vote Green instead of Conservative.

Probably not, Ipsos Mori haven't seperated Reform UK which appears to be enjoying a bit of an uptick at the moment. This can be seen from RedfieldWilton, while IM tend to be an outlier with higher Green support. I suspect the movements are generally RWNJ Cons to Reform, soft Cons/ex-Labour/floaters to Labour, LWNJ Labour to Greens (no disrepect to the Greens but their policies also attract non-environmental hard leftists).

 

 

[BigFish 1,988]

16 hours ago, SwindonCanary said:

The less deals we do with the EU the better 

Well it seems you may get your wish, if Frost activates A16 then the EU are planning on tariff sanctions and possibly even the nuclear option of walking away from the TCA/Johnson's oven ready deal completely.

 

 

 

[SwindonCanary 455]

Mini are still going well.

[PurpleCanary 5,586]

23 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Well it seems you may get your wish, if Frost activates A16 then the EU are planning on tariff sanctions and possibly even the nuclear option of walking away from the TCA/Johnson's oven ready deal completely.

 

 

 

'Escalation dominance' - it's General Turgidson in the War Room in Dr Strangelove...😎

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

29 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Well it seems you may get your wish, if Frost activates A16 then the EU are planning on tariff sanctions and possibly even the nuclear option of walking away from the TCA/Johnson's oven ready deal completely.

 

 

 

The UK's actually in quite a strong position over this; if the EU does react by suspending the entire trade agreement then the EU has put a hard border on Eire, which is something they've promised (to the Republic of Ireland) not to do. Equally, if Ireland and the UK refuse to enforce that then effectively the EU has no border enforcement with the UK at all. 

It's in the EU's interests to move past the desire to punish the UK and properly engage with finding a technology-based low friction border solution, but the sticking point is they don't want that implemented between the UK and France while they're in punishment mode. 

Edited November 9, 2021 by littleyellowbirdie

[Yellow Fever 3,839]

I really think think all the non-corrupting 'non nut job' parties should field just one 'Clean Sweep' candidate at the next election.

2 year mandate only for PR, reform of Lords, reform of MP 'perks' an 2nd jobs, anti-corruption, honour all treaties and simple competence.  New elections under new rules in 2 years. 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

5 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I really think think all the non-corrupting 'non nut job' parties should field just one 'Clean Sweep' candidate at the next election.

2 year mandate only for PR, reform of Lords, reform of MP 'perks' an 2nd jobs, anti-corruption, honour all treaties and simple competence.  New elections under new rules in 2 years. 

Why only a 2-year mandate for PR? If FPTP isn't fit for purpose then what possible justification is there to revert other than to restore Conservative hegemony and secure Labour's slot as the regular 2nd place party?

 

Edit: Ah, misunderstood. Yup, agree to an extent, although it's in the UK's interests to haggle on the treaty where the treaty was nakedly loaded against it. As de Gaulle said, 'treaties are like roses and young girls: they last as long as they last.'

Edited November 9, 2021 by littleyellowbirdie

[Yellow Fever 3,839]

2 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

The UK's actually in quite a strong position over this; if the EU does react by suspending the entire trade agreement then the EU has put a hard border on Eire, which is something they've promised not to do. Equally, if Ireland and the UK refuse to enforce that then effectively the EU has no border enforcement with the UK at all. 

It's in the EU's interests to move past the desire to punish the UK and properly engage with finding a technology-based low friction border solution, but the sticking point is they don't want that implemented between the UK and France while they're in punishment mode. 

I think you're totally wrong - and don't forget Biden has already made it pretty clear who he will side with in the event of a total breakdown. The last offer from the EU on the protocol went well beyond what was expected, was far more generous but was also a test to see if Johnson was serious. If as seems likely not (he's not serious about anything) it will be the nuclear option(s) as nobody can negotiate with such shysters.  

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

6 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think you're totally wrong - and don't forget Biden has already made it pretty clear who he will side with in the event of a total breakdown. The last offer from the EU on the protocol went well beyond what was expected, was far more generous but was also a test to see if Johnson was serious. If as seems likely not (he's not serious about anything) it will be the nuclear option(s) as nobody can negotiate with such shysters.  

After Trump withdrew the US from TPP, the UK's importance diplomatically to the US as a member of CPTPP with China and Taiwan queued up to join will be more valuable to it than taking the EU's side (as opposed to the Republic of Ireland's side) over Northern Ireland. 

Additionally, the article 16 threat does have a credible legal defence, which is why the EU is talking about escalation and retaliation rather than a legal pursuit. 

Edited November 9, 2021 by littleyellowbirdie

[PurpleCanary 5,586]

5 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think you're totally wrong - and don't forget Biden has already made it pretty clear who he will side with in the event of a total breakdown. The last offer from the EU on the protocol went well beyond what was expected, was far more generous but was also a test to see if Johnson was serious. If as seems likely not (he's not serious about anything) it will be the nuclear option(s) as nobody can negotiate with such shysters.  

This link to a New York Times article may not work for all but spells out the situation. The US government thinks the latest EU offer was very generous and genuinely aimed at solving the problem, so if Johnson still doesn't accept it then Biden will blame him and not the EU:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/18/world/europe/ireland-biden-eu-uk.html

Bear in mind it is now clearly established that Johnson never intended to keep to the NI protocol, so all the EU has to do is to remind Biden of that fact. The other reminder is that the May government originally negotiated the border between the two parts of Ireland, claiming they could dream up technology that would make it work, but somehow never putting forward anything feasible.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

9 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

This link to a New York Times article may not work for all but spells out the situation. The US government thinks the latest EU offer was very generous and genuinely aimed at solving the problem, so if Johnson still doesn't accept it then Biden will blame him and not the EU:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/18/world/europe/ireland-biden-eu-uk.html

Bear in mind it is now clearly established that Johnson never intended to keep to the NI protocol, so all the EU has to do is to remind Biden of that fact. The other reminder is that the May government originally negotiated the border between the two parts of Ireland, claiming they could dream up technology that would make it work, but somehow never putting forward anything feasible.

By the same token, the EU was never engaging with the NI situation in good faith either, fully intending to use it for maximum political leverage in withdrawal agreements. As such, haggling hard after the event while still respecting the legal niceties laid out in article 16 is morally as well as legally defensible. 

Let's not forget that effectively Barnier pursued a strategy of using another EU member, the Republic of Ireland, as a pawn in this. 

 

Edited November 9, 2021 by littleyellowbirdie

[Well b back 3,281]

1 minute ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

By the same token, the EU was never engaging with the NI situation in good faith either, fully intending to use it for maximum political leverage in withdrawal agreements. As such, haggling hard after the event while still respecting the legal niceties laid out in article 16 is morally as well as legally defensible. 

 

But Johnson and Farage said the EU would never do anything like this as they wouldn’t dare upset the U.K. as they had more to lose than the U.K.

Surely you are not telling us Johnson and Farage didn’t tell the truth, or has something changed.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

Just now, Well b back said:

But Johnson and Farage said the EU would never do anything like this as they wouldn’t dare upset the U.K. as they had more to lose than the U.K.

Surely you are not telling us Johnson and Farage didn’t tell the truth, or has something changed.

Well, they did. You'll find no defence of Johnson or Farage from me. I'm talking about the big picture; not personality trivia. 

[PurpleCanary 5,586]

7 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

By the same token, the EU was never engaging with the NI situation in good faith either, fully intending to use it for maximum political leverage in withdrawal agreements. As such, haggling hard after the event while still respecting the legal niceties laid out in article 16 is morally as well as legally defensible. 

Let's not forget that effectively Barnier pursued a strategy of using another EU member, the Republic of Ireland, as a pawn in this. 

 

But the bottom line is that the EU agreed a deal with Johnson that the EU, the Irish republic and the US were all very happy with. The only person threatening that deal is Boris Johnson, who signed in absolute bad faith, always intending to break it. And Johnson's problem, as that NYT story makes plain, is that Biden knows it is Johnson's fault and not that of the EU.

And that is the big picture as far as the politics of this are concerned.

Edited November 9, 2021 by PurpleCanary

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

Just now, PurpleCanary said:

But the bottom line is that the EU agreed a deal with Johnson that the EU, the Irish republic and the US were all very happy with. The only person threatening that deal is Boris Johnson, who signed in absolute bad faith, always intending to break it. And Johnson's problem, as that NYT story makes plain, is that Biden knows it is Johnson's fault and not that of the EU.

I'm not convinced it's true Ireland was happy with it. Unhappy ulster unionists is no more desirable to Ireland than unhappy republicans are good news for the UK. 

From Ireland's perspective, the technological border solutions the UK was advocating would open up the UK land bridge for trade with the EU as opposed to the expensive ferry routes it has had to create to bypass the land bridge. 

[1902 1,167]

1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Brexit was only ever going to be a world of hurt in the aftermath of the exit process, but the post-Brexit process is well underway. 

CPTPP is the crucial element in the UK's future as a non-EU member. The trade agreement has 13 existing members as well as Taiwan and China having just applied for entry. Once in CPTPP, membership provides a great platform to build trade elsewhere with like-minded democracies without it ever becoming a body seeking ever-closer union. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/first-meeting-uks-cptpp-inclusion-be-held-month-japan-minister-says-2021-09-01/

France's obvious desire to tilt more to an Asia-Pacific strategy will mean the EU will have to engage positively with CPTPP, which means it will be in the EU's interest to get on a more positive footing with the UK, which is not the case at present. 

This is an agreement of Pacific states with at least partially Pacific orientated trade policies, it's a classic example of your trade being primarily with those nearest you. 

Also, if China is a like minded democracy then I'm really worried about what autocracy looks like.

Furthermore, this article only mentions a reduction of tariff barriers, but tariff barriers are not the main cost of trade in the modern world, the higher cost is in non tariff barriers to entry.

Additionally, the EU already has significant FTAs with Canada, Singapore, Vietnam, Japan and is likely to conclude similar agreements with NZ and Australia shortly.

So the value added of such an agreement appears to be easier trade with Mexico, Malaysia and Peru. I cannot imagine those are huge markets for our goods and services or ever will be, links with Belgium are still going to be a larger share of our economic activity.

[1902 1,167]

7 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

I'm not convinced it's true Ireland was happy with it. Unhappy ulster unionists is no more desirable to Ireland than unhappy republicans are good news for the UK. 

From Ireland's perspective, the technological border solutions the UK was advocating would open up the UK land bridge for trade with the EU as opposed to the expensive ferry routes it has had to create to bypass the land bridge. 

Except inspecting the health of a cow with a drone proved an insurmountable issue. You can't do SPS tests with technology. 

The Irish wanted a solution, they got one, and then Johnson reneged on something he himself signed. That's literally all there is to this.

[PurpleCanary 5,586]

12 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

I'm not convinced it's true Ireland was happy with it. Unhappy ulster unionists is no more desirable to Ireland than unhappy republicans are good news for the UK. 

From Ireland's perspective, the technological border solutions the UK was advocating would open up the UK land bridge for trade with the EU as opposed to the expensive ferry routes it has had to create to bypass the land bridge. 

No one who matters cares in the slightest about the Ulster Unionists, and even the UK government was forced to admit it hadn't solved the technological border problems. If it had done that then it could in part have applied the same technology to the Irish Sea border.

Edited November 9, 2021 by PurpleCanary

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, SwindonCanary said:

Mini are still going well.

Subframe was always a problem Swindon, couldn't you have slapped a bit more underseal on?