The Positive Brexit Thread

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

There is a theme developing here, in the past where all things wrong with the UK, of which there are many ( also loads of great stuff ) were blamed on the EU, we now have all things wrong with the UK blamed on Brexit. Both positions are equally absurd.

I'd say that is a far too sweeping statement to be remotely accurate.

It's true that David Cameron and his government (ably assisted by the RWNJ media) used to blame all the UK's problems on the EU in an attempt to deflect the blame away from the real cause which was his own Government's economically illiterate and uncaring policies, and he continued that stance right up to the point when he suddenly decided that the EU was a really good thing and it would be a disaster if we left - probably the dimmest PM this country has ever had, or so it seemed at the time but of course now we know better!  😀

Since then we've had more economic incompetence from May, then Johnson allied to corruption and a huge wastage of public money, then spectacular incompetence from Truss and now Sunak who has been extremely disappointing but at least at the Cameron/Osborne/May level rather than the Johnson/Truss level.

As for Brexit, it is quite rightly IMO being blamed for many of our problems even though in some cases it is not the original cause of the problem but has made pre-existing problems worse and sometimes much worse. I suspect that it is perhaps also the case that Brexit and the dismal series of Tory Governments we've endured for the last 13 years are so inextricably linked that Brexit has become a bit of a catch-all for problems created or significantly worsened by the other Tory policies which may be only partly , or maybe not at all, linked to Brexit itself.

But one thing about Brexit which is now beyond dispute is that it has caused a massive hit to our economy and will do for the foreseeable future, and I think you can draw a pretty straight line between that and the Governments' chronic underfunding and current dire state of our public services.

Edited March 1, 2023 by Creative Midfielder

[A Load of Squit 5,164]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

There is a theme developing here, in the past where all things wrong with the UK, of which there are many ( also loads of great stuff ) were blamed on the EU, we now have all things wrong with the UK blamed on Brexit. Both positions are equally absurd.

Not all of the many things wrong with the UK are the fault of Brexit.

That's even more problematic, whilst Brexit made us worse off the current government are managing to make us even more worse off whilst making themselves are their mates richer.

[horsefly 4,300]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

There is a theme developing here, in the past where all things wrong with the UK, of which there are many ( also loads of great stuff ) were blamed on the EU, we now have all things wrong with the UK blamed on Brexit. Both positions are equally absurd.

They are indeed! So just as well no one on this thread has ever made such a claim.

[PurpleCanary 5,562]

46 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I'd say that is a far too sweeping statement to be remotely accurate.

It's true that David Cameron and his government (ably assisted by the RWNJ media) used to blame all the UK's problems on the EU in an attempt to deflect the blame away from the real cause which was his own Government's economically illiterate and uncaring policies, and he continued that stance right up to the point when he suddenly decided that the EU was a really good thing and it would be a disaster if we left - probably the dimmest PM this country has ever had, or so it seemed at the time but of course now we know better!  😀

Since then we've had more economic incompetence from May, then Johnson allied to corruption and a huge wastage of public money, then spectacular incompetence from Truss and now Sunak who has been extremely disappointing but at least at the Cameron/Osborne/May level rather than the Johnson/Truss level.

As for Brexit, it is quite rightly IMO being blamed for many of our problems even though in some cases it is not the original cause of the problem but has made pre-existing problems worse and sometimes much worse. I suspect that it is perhaps also the case that Brexit and the dismal series of Tory Governments we've endured for the last 13 years are so inextricably linked that Brexit has become a bit of a catch-all for problems created or significantly worsened by the other Tory policies which may be only partly , or maybe not at all, linked to Brexit itself.

But one thing about Brexit which is now beyond dispute is that it has caused a massive hit to our economy and will do for the foreseeable future, and I think you can draw a pretty straight line between that and the Governments' chronic underfunding and current dire state of our public services.

Absolutely. The question to which I certainly don't have an answer is what the Sunak/EU deal means in the longer run. The overall Brexit trade deal is up for re-examination/negotiation in 2025. By which point there may well be a Labour or Labour plus others government.

And there is a belief that the Tories will be out of power for at least a decade. This is why not just veterans but a few of the supposedly rising stars in the party are not standing at the next election. They don't fancy ten or more years in boring opposition.

Who then will be the Tory leader? Perhaps someone sane and competent and now not at all in hock either to the ERG or the DUP. And the generation that voted for Brexit will be diminished. The move on Horizon is a sign that in the short term and at the margins there can be closer links between the UK and the EU.

But there is an optimistic longer-term scenario under which the really important elements of the Brexit catastrophe are eliminated. And despite some of the overly fevered imaginings I have read here the EU would not impose impossibly draconian punishment terms on the UK.

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

2 hours ago, Van wink said:

There is a theme developing here, in the past where all things wrong with the UK, of which there are many ( also loads of great stuff ) were blamed on the EU, we now have all things wrong with the UK blamed on Brexit. Both positions are equally absurd.

There's clearly a truth in what you say VW not to take a pedantic position (certainly many of Leavers' complaints were misplaced as is all too obvious now) - but I think at present I would suggest that many of today's wider problems may not be the direct fault of Brexit (though some clearly are) but many are certainly exacerbated by it i.e. the small boats (No Dublin Agreement) and tomato shortages for instance. To some extent the previous Tory government and their 'hard' Brexit are of indivisible interchangeable factors - chicken and egg.

A little bit of honesty on all sides would certainly help which Sunak candidly fessed up to with NI's advantages of being in the SM!

Edited March 1, 2023 by Yellow Fever

[ricardo 7,395]

2 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Sorry Ricardo but that just isn't the case. Political demographics show that the 60+ group voted overwhelming to leave and the under 40's for Remain. There was an unnatural boom in childbirth between 1945 and 1965, most of whom will be dead by 2040.

It used to be the case that our politics changed as we aged but there is now good evidence that simply doesn't happen any more. So around 15 to 20 years from now, all other things being equal, there would be a huge vote to return. 

All other things being equal is the interesting point because I suspect that the EU will look very different by then, especially as the UK isn't there to hold it back. So by then the Euro will probably be compulsory and there will probably be a European army. In short, it will be the United States of Europe which ironically is what Churchill proposed almost 80 years ago. Whether there will be the will to rejoin in those circumstances who knows. No one can say with any certainty. 

I rarely take part in this debate because I don't see much chance of people changing their minds which is why I think we need millions of people to die before we think about it again. But if you do all want to persist, please be realistic and accept that the economic consequences of this are enormous. Frankly if you can't see that you look a bit silly. It really is a question of how much you want to pay for freedom from the EU. Or perhaps more pertinently, how much you are prepared to ask your children and grandchildren to pay. 

You are free to make your points and push for a return to the E.U. You might even see a time when theres a vote but I see no enthusiasm  for it and therefore don't  see it happening in any realistic time frame if at all.

Its certainly not happening in my lifetime and probably  not yours.

 

[dylanisabaddog 4,921]

26 minutes ago, ricardo said:

You are free to make your points and push for a return to the E.U. You might even see a time when theres a vote but I see no enthusiasm  for it and therefore don't  see it happening in any realistic time frame if at all.

Its certainly not happening in my lifetime and probably  not yours.

 

By 2030 your children and grandchildren will be worse off than equivalent families in Poland. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/02/26/uk-will-poorer-parts-eastern-europe-doesnt-fix-growth-crisis/

How long do you think they'll be prepared to pay for your folly? I think I'll be alive to see the vote to return. Just.... 

Incidentally, I recently asked a senior Tory activist what their planning was for the death of the baby boomers. She looked a bit confused. At a senior level in the Labour Party they have a rather unfortunate name for the same generation and are planning carefully for what happens when they're gone. 

They call them the 'we won the war generation'. 

 

Edited March 1, 2023 by dylanisabaddog

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

You are free to make your points and push for a return to the E.U. You might even see a time when there's a vote but I see no enthusiasm  for it and therefore don't  see it happening in any realistic time frame if at all.

Its certainly not happening in my lifetime and probably  not yours.

 

I think you're wrong Ricardo.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-referendum-rejoin-eu-b2250813.html

The question is only when as far as I can see - certainly not until one probably two more election cycles have passed.  For there not to be Brexit will have to be spectacular success (which in turn will be down to SKS) of which it currently shows no signs. DoA.

Of course other events might transpire - the EU will certainly change (enlarging eastward - Ukraine) and perhaps an associate membership (c.f. Norway etc) might become more feasible first. However, I'm very sure the direction of travel is unstoppable for all the  demographic and globalization reasons Dylan notes. Sadly, the population as whole will want somebody or something to blame, right or wrong, for any economic shortcomings and we already have a ready made villain! 

I've always said give it ten years....

Edited March 1, 2023 by Yellow Fever

[littleyellowbirdie 2,550]

3 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

Absolutely. The question to which I certainly don't have an answer is what the Sunak/EU deal means in the longer run. The overall Brexit trade deal is up for re-examination/negotiation in 2025. By which point there may well be a Labour or Labour plus others government.

And there is a belief that the Tories will be out of power for at least a decade. This is why not just veterans but a few of the supposedly rising stars in the party are not standing at the next election. They don't fancy ten or more years in boring opposition.

Who then will be the Tory leader? Perhaps someone sane and competent and now not at all in hock either to the ERG or the DUP. And the generation that voted for Brexit will be diminished. The move on Horizon is a sign that in the short term and at the margins there can be closer links between the UK and the EU.

But there is an optimistic longer-term scenario under which the really important elements of the Brexit catastrophe are eliminated. And despite some of the overly fevered imaginings I have read here the EU would not impose impossibly draconian punishment terms on the UK.

I'll correct you there: The EU already imposed draconian punishment terms. Horizon is a case in point, where the UK was keen to continue participating, but the EU rebuffed it. This in spite of the fact that the continental scientific community was no less upset about the end of UK participation than the UK was.

The pretense that the EU didn't make UK withdrawal as hard on the UK as possible is the biggest lie you persist with on this thread.

Edited March 1, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[ricardo 7,395]

14 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think you're wrong 

I've always said give it ten years....

I'd happily take a bet with you YF but I won't  be here to collect or pay up.😉

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

I'd happily take a bet with you YF but I won't  be here to collect or pay up.😉

Are you going up or down 😉

?

[ricardo 7,395]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

Are you going up or down 😉

?

Difficult to say but I may get in the playoffs😀

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

7 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Difficult to say but I may get in the playoffs😀

I ended up watching 'Lucifer' on Netflix the other night. In a light hearted off-beat manner I found it quite enjoyable yet oddly thought provoking. 

[ricardo 7,395]

54 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I ended up watching 'Lucifer' on Netflix the other night. In a light hearted off-beat manner I found it quite enjoyable yet oddly thought provoking. 

I know I will meet the guy sometime but I'm  in no great hurry.

[benchwarmer 625]

This morning Chris Mason from the BBC who has been reporting on the EU negotiations, said that pressure had been put on Sunak by so-called 'supporters' within the Tory Party to back off from tackling the NI Protocol and, quote "Leave it to Starmer to sort out. There are no runs in it.".

Calling such people scum does a disservice to fans of Ipswich Town . . .

Edited March 1, 2023 by benchwarmer

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

12 minutes ago, benchwarmer said:

This morning Chris Mason from the BBC who has been reporting on the EU negotiations, said that pressure had been put on Sunak by so-called 'supporters' within the Tory Party to back off from tackling the NI Protocol and, quote "Leave it to Starmer to sort out. There are no runs in it.".

Calling such people scum does a disservice to fans of Ipswich Town . . .

Quite, and after months of a complete lack of leadership from Sunak he clearly deserves some credit for even taking this on and obviously more for a successful outcome.

But unfortunately for Sunak I suspect that those scummy 'supporters' do have a point and there are very few runs in it for him as far as most GB voters are concerned, especially when he remains in hiding on all the problems that concern them directly on a daily basis.

[Herman 9,765]

Who currently has got the world's smallest violin?

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,550]

5 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

By 2030 your children and grandchildren will be worse off than equivalent families in Poland. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/02/26/uk-will-poorer-parts-eastern-europe-doesnt-fix-growth-crisis/

How long do you think they'll be prepared to pay for your folly? I think I'll be alive to see the vote to return. Just.... 

Incidentally, I recently asked a senior Tory activist what their planning was for the death of the baby boomers. She looked a bit confused. At a senior level in the Labour Party they have a rather unfortunate name for the same generation and are planning carefully for what happens when they're gone. 

They call them the 'we won the war generation'. 

 

You assume there won't be any progress elsewhere. What's the hit to GDP? The hit from Brexit is 5.5% of GDP with the EU making it as difficult as possible without actively hurting itself economically. I don't see that as something that can't be made up elsewhere, or even recovered to a fair extent with the EU as relations improve.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,550]

32 minutes ago, Herman said:

Who currently has got the world's smallest violin?

 

The world's smallest violin is unavailable as it's currently in continuous use playing a tune for all the folks still rerunning the 2016 referendum in their heads every morning.

[TheGunnShow 5,940]

Boris Johnson has largely been quiet. Has anyone started a search party in all the fridges yet?

[littleyellowbirdie 2,550]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Sunak actually sold the EU on sorting Northern Ireland fairly as a means of blowing chances of a Johnson comeback out of the water.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/01/boris-johnsons-allies-doubtful-he-could-make-comeback

 

[ricardo 7,395]

12 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Sunak actually sold the EU on sorting Northern Ireland fairly as a means of blowing chances of a Johnson comeback out of the water.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/01/boris-johnsons-allies-doubtful-he-could-make-comeback

 

'Have i got news for you' is probably the apex of his expectations now.

Had his chance and blew it big time.

All political careers end in failure so no big surprise and I don't  see any challenge to Sunak before the election. Still 22 months to go and a lot can happen.

[Herman 9,765]

1 hour ago, TheGunnShow said:

Boris Johnson has largely been quiet. Has anyone started a search party in all the fridges yet?

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,550]

9 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

It's true that David Cameron and his government (ably assisted by the RWNJ media) used to blame all the UK's problems on the EU in an attempt to deflect the blame away from the real cause...

 

This is somewhat misleading; there has been a habit of blaming things on the EU for decades before Cameron; instances of this occurred under Major, Brown, and Blair.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,187]

25 minutes ago, ricardo said:

'Have i got news for you' is probably the apex of his expectations now.

Had his chance and blew it big time.

All political careers end in failure so no big surprise and I don't  see any challenge to Sunak before the election. Still 22 months to go and a lot can happen.

Johnson had 2 chances, and blew both of them 

Gove stabbed him in the chest in 2016, but he managed to get another go after May imploded 

The second chance ended in predictable failure

Hopefully he will never return to front line politics again 

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

25 minutes ago, ricardo said:

'Have i got news for you' is probably the apex of his expectations now.

Had his chance and blew it big time.

All political careers end in failure so no big surprise and I don't  see any challenge to Sunak before the election. Still 22 months to go and a lot can happen.

Nah - Rishi will give him (insist) the Governorship of St Helena in thanks for all his hard work. King of all he surveys - and given his like for garish wallpapers his own choice of several lush lulu green antique ones.

Job's a good'un.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,187]

17 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Nah - Rishi will give him (insist) the Governorship of St Helena in thanks for all his hard work. King of all he surveys - and given his like for garish wallpapers his own choice of several lush lulu green antique ones.

Job's a good'un.

I'd make him the UK ambassador to Atlantis 

[TheGunnShow 5,940]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

 

Would be a vast improvement, and "stool" is fitting for the stuff Johnson says, somehow.

[benchwarmer 625]

4 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Nah - Rishi will give him (insist) the Governorship of St Helena in thanks for all his hard work. King of all he surveys - and given his like for garish wallpapers his own choice of several lush lulu green antique ones.

Job's a good'un.

What have the people of St Helena done to deserve that?

[PurpleCanary 5,562]

10 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Nah - Rishi will give him (insist) the Governorship of St Helena in thanks for all his hard work. King of all he surveys - and given his like for garish wallpapers his own choice of several lush lulu green antique ones.

Job's a good'un.

I like this idea, especially as Longwood House is owned by the French government and is a museum to Napoleon. BoJo the Charlatan could end his days as an exhibit, symbolising "Complete Downfall Into Object of Mockery".