The Positive Brexit Thread

[A Load of Squit 5,164]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

Swind-oh!!

 

And more .................

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

Swind-oh!!

 

No wonder really. We aren't putting anything into battery production. The country that siezes the battery market will have an advantage.

Perhaps Lord Snooty, our Business Secretary can give us a reason.

Edited October 15, 2022 by keelansgrandad

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

1 minute ago, keelansgrandad said:

No wonder really. We aren't putting anything into battery production. The country that siezes the battery market will have an advantage.

Absolutely, but somewhat surprised they didn't just pull it back to Germany (or even Poland) - there is an awful lot of battery manufacturing capacity coming onstream in Germany and given all the global supply chain issues at the moment and for the foreseeable future dropping something that significant into China seems a bit odd unless they already have a capability to build the Mini in Europe but I thought that the UK was it for the Mini?

[A Load of Squit 5,164]

24 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Absolutely, but somewhat surprised they didn't just pull it back to Germany (or even Poland) - there is an awful lot of battery manufacturing capacity coming onstream in Germany and given all the global supply chain issues at the moment and for the foreseeable future dropping something that significant into China seems a bit odd unless they already have a capability to build the Mini in Europe but I thought that the UK was it for the Mini?

BMW have signed a deal with a Chinese motor company (Great Wall Motor) their cars called Ora and Wey will probably be built in BMW plants in Europe.

[Surfer 1,547]

If we were still in the EU with its attendant freedom of movement can pretty much guarantee this would not have happened, but we put ourselves outside of a tariff free export zone, and can't bring in better qualified managers to resolve any production issues - so hey let's give up British jobs to China.

There are three things that must happen to stop the British Economic Disaster Zone

1. General Election. 2. Return to the Common Market. 3. Freedom of Movement. 

Or else next the time they measure the BEDZ v Germany it will be a lot less than 70% 

Edited October 15, 2022 by Surfer

[Yellow Fever 3,786]

Saw this article and i think it pretty much sums up my feeling on what's happened and the root cause.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/14/markets-take-back-control-brexit-humiliation-britain-suez#comment-159214669

"The markets have taken back control: so much for Truss’s Brexit delusion of sovereignty"

Particularly like the line - 

Brexit broke the link between governance and reason, between policy and evidence

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,550]

15 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Saw this article and i think it pretty much sums up my feeling on what's happened and the root cause.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/14/markets-take-back-control-brexit-humiliation-britain-suez#comment-159214669

"The markets have taken back control: so much for Truss’s Brexit delusion of sovereignty"

Particularly like the line - 

Brexit broke the link between governance and reason, between policy and evidence

 

In any nation other than the US where it runs a steady deficit, the markets have always had control. Anyone who borrows is ultimately subject to the whim of the creditors.

Edited October 15, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[Yellow Fever 3,786]

1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

In any nation other than the US where it runs a steady deficit, the markets have always had control. Anyone who borrows is ultimately subject to the whim of the creditors.

Isn't that exactly what the markets had to remind Truss & Kwarteng off?

The article is far deeper than that however.

Edited October 15, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[sonyc 5,519]

12 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Isn't that exactly what the markets had to remind Truss & Kwarteng off?

The article is far deeper than that however.

Quite so. It's an article which covers deep themes - yet written very succinctly, almost without ceremony. Thank you for sharing this YF. The line that hit home for me was that there is no such thing as unfettered sovereignty and that every country has to accommodate it's neighbour and the wider global economy. And certainly I've made my views known on this and as Freedland says, remainers were mocked for doing so. As I've been a few times.

The Telegraph article too is hugely significant as it lays out the Project Fear arguments. Further, it goes on to explain how internationally, investors, finance people (and after Truss & Kwarteng) political leaders too have lost trust with us as a country. Our credibility is tarnished.

An anecdote here I know, but on a brief summer holiday break this year I was chatting with a Dutch bloke who was very knowledgeable about UK politics (always they seem so well read) and he repeated "just what is happening with the UK, what have you done? Why would your government do that?".…he was shocked and shared that many people he knew felt the same. He was a big fan of the UK and felt very sad. My own apologies for it and not being a supporter of Brexit were graciously accepted. He also knew many British people, none of whom had voted Brexit either. 

It's embarrassing to be so isolated. In a few short weeks (on top of Brexit) we have properly trashed our fiscal reputation. Hunt at least has begun to say the right things. As it's being reported, he appears to be coming across as the CEO or de facto PM. If soon we might be able to row back (albeit gently) on Brexit then that will be a welcome thing.

Hunt has apologised for the mini budget - rightly so - and we need some years of apology for Brexit from our politicians. It would mean we have begun to accept our phase in history - where we were duped by a few very evil people who actually played the country. I use the word evil here deliberately because of the effect of their actions. We must begin a narrative to say it was a mistake. And explain the ways in which it was a mistake.

Truss appears so brittle (I posted before I could sense she might be so defended against herself to the point it ought to worry us in her being a PM) but as Robert Halfon has stated, she really needs to have a "fireside chat with the British people". She needs to reach out to people who are suffering. There is a world of pain arriving for thousands. The same kind of thing needs to happen about Brexit. 

[horsefly 4,300]

16 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Robert Halfon has stated, she really needs to have a "fireside chat with the British people"

Do we get to push her in?

[sonyc 5,519]

2 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Do we get to push her in?

Oh she is toast already h! 😐

 

 

[horsefly 4,300]

Want to know how bad things are? Well, this is an article published in the TELEGRAPH:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/britain-s-transformation-into-the-new-italy-is-now-almost-complete/ar-AA130KKp?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=76b7fcf7a6c24ffda10ce569bcb2e5a8

Britain's transformation into the new Italy is now almost complete

 

..."When the UK voted to leave the European Union, the purpose may have been to stop itself turning into the next Italy. It was hailed by supporters of Brexit as a chance to break free and forge a new path.

Now that that has clearly failed, the important lesson to learn from our southern neighbour is this. Countries that once had bright prospects can turn into basket cases very quickly. No one would have predicted that fate for Italy at the moment of “Il sorpasso”, but it is what happened, and it can happen to the UK as well.

And once a country sets itself down that path, the outlook is very bleak, with growth stalled, technocrats struggling to keep control, and angry extremists such as the incoming Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni rising to power. It doesn’t sound very British – but the dismal truth is that this now appears to be the UK's future."

[Yellow Fever 3,786]

43 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Quite so. It's an article which covers deep themes - yet written very succinctly, almost without ceremony. Thank you for sharing this YF. The line that hit home for me was that there is no such thing as unfettered sovereignty and that every country has to accommodate it's neighbour and the wider global economy. And certainly I've made my views known on this and as Freedland says, remainers were mocked for doing so. As I've been a few times.

The Telegraph article too is hugely significant as it lays out the Project Fear arguments. Further, it goes on to explain how internationally, investors, finance people (and after Truss & Kwarteng) political leaders too have lost trust with us as a country. Our credibility is tarnished.

An anecdote here I know, but on a brief summer holiday break this year I was chatting with a Dutch bloke who was very knowledgeable about UK politics (always they seem so well read) and he repeated "just what is happening with the UK, what have you done? Why would your government do that?".…he was shocked and shared that many people he knew felt the same. He was a big fan of the UK and felt very sad. My own apologies for it and not being a supporter of Brexit were graciously accepted. He also knew many British people, none of whom had voted Brexit either. 

It's embarrassing to be so isolated. In a few short weeks (on top of Brexit) we have properly trashed our fiscal reputation. Hunt at least has begun to say the right things. As it's being reported, he appears to be coming across as the CEO or de facto PM. If soon we might be able to row back (albeit gently) on Brexit then that will be a welcome thing.

Hunt has apologised for the mini budget - rightly so - and we need some years of apology for Brexit from our politicians. It would mean we have begun to accept our phase in history - where we were duped by a few very evil people who actually played the country. I use the word evil here deliberately because of the effect of their actions. We must begin a narrative to say it was a mistake. And explain the ways in which it was a mistake.

Truss appears so brittle (I posted before I could sense she might be so defended against herself to the point it ought to worry us in her being a PM) but as Robert Halfon has stated, she really needs to have a "fireside chat with the British people". She needs to reach out to people who are suffering. There is a world of pain arriving for thousands. The same kind of thing needs to happen about Brexit. 

Yes SC - there were many points (lines) that hit home hence why I flagged it  - its title didn't do it justice.

Oddly - I think the end of Trussonomics is indeed the splintering of the Brexit (ERG) dream. I've long stated that the conundrum at the heart of Brexit was that to make it work (as advertised) we would have to be much more like the US (low direct taxes) model but also low public services. Truss attempted the first but couldn't bring herself to tell the public about he second part. Massively reduce all benefits to balance the books. Seem like the 'markets' saw that too and delivered their damning verdict.

So we are back to political and economic realities. People like the NHS, state pensions and the welfare state so then they'll have to pay for it. Mend our fences with Europe, balance our books and go forwards much the  wiser.

Edited October 16, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[sonyc 5,519]

24 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Want to know how bad things are? Well, this is an article published in the TELEGRAPH:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/britain-s-transformation-into-the-new-italy-is-now-almost-complete/ar-AA130KKp?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=76b7fcf7a6c24ffda10ce569bcb2e5a8

Britain's transformation into the new Italy is now almost complete

 

..."When the UK voted to leave the European Union, the purpose may have been to stop itself turning into the next Italy. It was hailed by supporters of Brexit as a chance to break free and forge a new path.

Now that that has clearly failed, the important lesson to learn from our southern neighbour is this. Countries that once had bright prospects can turn into basket cases very quickly. No one would have predicted that fate for Italy at the moment of “Il sorpasso”, but it is what happened, and it can happen to the UK as well.

And once a country sets itself down that path, the outlook is very bleak, with growth stalled, technocrats struggling to keep control, and angry extremists such as the incoming Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni rising to power. It doesn’t sound very British – but the dismal truth is that this now appears to be the UK's future."

I wondered whether that article was overstating the case when I started to read it but the more you read the more you can see the parallels. We've had a very settled culture in our national administrations for decades, albeit punctuated with occasional scandals. These last two to three years have been diabolical - the fact we've had 4 chancellors in 4 months is just a statistic but shows a huge problem. Brexit has created a deep schism which has been filled with all kinds of chaos. It says a lot doesn't it when free markets are deeply suspicious of its own government - so much so they cannot trust it. That's the real sovereignty for you - real life (ultimately, financial institutions) telling you as it is. There is a deep irony of course. Freedom is conditional.

Edited October 16, 2022 by sonyc

[sonyc 5,519]

15 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Truss attempted the first but couldn't bring herself to tell the public about he second part. Massively reduce all benefits to balance the books. Seem like the 'markets' saw that too and delivered their damning verdict.

Maybe this diagram should go under the other thread but I'm just responding to your points above....

A very simple but frightening diagram. And after the pandemic and Brexit, let alone the Ukraine war and global energy problems, that mini budget was a terrible thing to have done. It must have been done with forethought too. You don't do things like that without any kind of evaluation or risk assessment. People might joke that Truss would but I would not agree. It was a purposeful thing, an ideological purpose. 

 

Edit: just imagine what you could have done with the 20 to 30bn pounds that we are having to recover in more cuts! Think of the investment programmes in areas, universal benefit support (upgrades for the disabled etc). Hell, that new increased self- inflicted deficit approaches what the UK paid into being part of the EU over decades doesn't it?

Edited October 16, 2022 by sonyc

[Yellow Fever 3,786]

21 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Maybe this diagram should go under the other thread but I'm just responding to your points above....

A very simple but frightening diagram. And after the pandemic and Brexit, let alone the Ukraine war and global energy problems, that mini budget was a terrible thing to have done. It must have been done with forethought too. You don't do things like that without any kind of evaluation or risk assessment. People might joke that Truss would but I would not agree. It was a purposeful thing, an ideological purpose. 

 

Edit: just imagine what you could have done with the 20 to 30bn pounds that we are having to recover in more cuts! Think of the investment programmes in areas, universal benefit support (upgrades for the disabled etc). Hell, that new increased self- inflicted deficit approaches what the UK paid into being part of the EU over decades doesn't it?

For starters its delay the 1p income tax cut - and reintroduce the NICs charge (on pensioners too - in fact bring it in-line over 4 years with everybody else under 67)

[PurpleCanary 5,562]

On 11/10/2022 at 16:55, PurpleCanary said:

I have a admittedly optimistic Brexit scenario.

After the next general election Labour are the largest single party, but either mathematically or in practice have to do some kind of deal with the LibDems.

Labour's stated policy is not to scrap Brexit but "to make it work", which is usefully non-specific. Despite what Sturgeon claimed this week, Labour is certainly not committed to a hard Brexit. 

the assumption was that Labour would start with baby steps and not make any significant changes initially, with the idea that in time a kind of mission-creep would develop that would effect such changes piecemeal.

But, especially if the LibDems are in a powerful enough bargaining position, Labour could reinstitute what had been its post-referendum position, of going into a customs' union. The argument it could use would be that it had inherited such a financial mess that baby steps, not just with Brexit but with its overall plan to get the country back on its feet, were no longer appropriate. Something had to be done immediately.

So an appeal to the EU to start negotiations would be one of prime minister Starmer's first acts. If I have understood the position this would mainly solve the Irish border problem. There might be difficulties with trade deals we have since signed with other countries, but perhaps not insoluble ones.

Since only Tuesday I would say events have made this scenario, or at least steps towards it, a touch more of a possibility. Some recent opinion polls have shown that the penny is starting to drop with the electorate that Brexit is a significant factor in their financial hardships.

And awareness is growing that the stupidity of Brexit is also linked is linked to the loss of investment confidence the markets have in the UK. Any sign by Labour, however hedged around with caveats, that it would make even a slight move back towards the EU would be happily seized on by the markets.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,550]

On 15/10/2022 at 19:11, A Load of Squit said:

BMW have signed a deal with a Chinese motor company (Great Wall Motor) their cars called Ora and Wey will probably be built in BMW plants in Europe.

What is it with Germany seemingly having a penchant for making itself beholden to superpower dictatorships? 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

14 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

What is it with Germany seemingly having a penchant for making itself beholden to superpower dictatorships? 

They tried being one themselves on a couple of occasions.

[Yellow Fever 3,786]

I'm sure this will be reported in many places

 

70% of Britons favour closer relationship with EU, and 59% think Brexit has worsened economy, poll suggests

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change has published some extensive new polling on Brexit. For anyone interested in the topic, it’s a data goldmine, but two finding stand out.

https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union

Some good points in there generally

Edited October 18, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[Yellow Fever 3,786]

I love these cartoons

 

[sonyc 5,519]

The FT has produced this short film

There are 13k comments alone and  even a quick read gives a perspective of real experiences.

I hope Labour approaches this thorny issue and we start to see some serious conversations about it. The public needs to be informed and educated - to try and put all the lies into context (and the rear view mirror). 

[Yellow Fever 3,786]

All coming undone...

UK doomed without Brexit rethink, warns Tory backer

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63371743

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

5 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

All coming undone...

UK doomed without Brexit rethink, warns Tory backer

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63371743

Yes, I saw that and what he is saying now is what the Tories should have been saying (and doing) for the last six years - that Brexit should have happened with a proper deal not the shoddy damaging nonsense that Johnson came up which the current set of Tory MPs backed in their entirety (I think there were a handful of abstentions but no Tory MP voted against).

So the whole Tory Party owns this problem and no amount of pandemic b0llocks or Ukrainian bullsh1t can disguise the fact that an awful Brexit deal and the abysmal implementation of it are major factors in the UK economy being in the very deep hole it currently occupies.

Edited October 24, 2022 by Creative Midfielder

[sonyc 5,519]

Excellent article. If we want to close that £30/£40bn hole in the economy then a 'soft' move towards the SM and CU would improve things immediately. You might even see the LD and Labour supporting such a move. If only we had a system that promoted cooperation.

 

This isn't about rejoining the EU but aligning economically.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/25/rishi-sunak-rejoin-single-market-customs-union-brexit-lies?

 

In the final quarter of 2021 GDP was 5.2% smaller, investment was 13.7% lower and trade in goods was 13.6% lower than they would have been had the UK stayed in the EU.

 

People are wanting grown up politics - the kind that has been robbed from this country by 4 ludicrous administrations, the last two being the worst. Sunak surely has the chance now to start to mend the 'brokenness' - to begin to heal the damage to our reputation. 

 

He will need to tax more. But he can explain that by arguing that it makes for a far better way of funding stuff than all of us volunteering as many do, or setting up direct debits to foodbanks. Or asking the charitable sector to pick up the pieces of a failing welfare state...time for a narrative about  'bigger' government. Truss wanting a small government was plainly wrong for our times. But, so was Brexit, which is proving far more costly even than Trussonomics. We have heard the criticism loudly on her gambles but still not nearly a loud enough message on the damage of Brexit.

 

Time to get rid of those ERG nutters - too much has been written about them. They belong to another era and voters should get rid of them.

 

 

 

[Yellow Fever 3,786]

Interesting article written by a 'realistic' Brexiteer looking back with some hindsight and trying to identify the few positives.

Seems even he thinks we might (should) end up back in the SM!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/31/brexit-revolution-has-come-end/ 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,550]

On 25/10/2022 at 14:29, sonyc said:

Excellent article. If we want to close that £30/£40bn hole in the economy then a 'soft' move towards the SM and CU would improve things immediately. You might even see the LD and Labour supporting such a move. If only we had a system that promoted cooperation.

 

This isn't about rejoining the EU but aligning economically.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/25/rishi-sunak-rejoin-single-market-customs-union-brexit-lies?

 

In the final quarter of 2021 GDP was 5.2% smaller, investment was 13.7% lower and trade in goods was 13.6% lower than they would have been had the UK stayed in the EU.

 

People are wanting grown up politics - the kind that has been robbed from this country by 4 ludicrous administrations, the last two being the worst. Sunak surely has the chance now to start to mend the 'brokenness' - to begin to heal the damage to our reputation. 

 

He will need to tax more. But he can explain that by arguing that it makes for a far better way of funding stuff than all of us volunteering as many do, or setting up direct debits to foodbanks. Or asking the charitable sector to pick up the pieces of a failing welfare state...time for a narrative about  'bigger' government. Truss wanting a small government was plainly wrong for our times. But, so was Brexit, which is proving far more costly even than Trussonomics. We have heard the criticism loudly on her gambles but still not nearly a loud enough message on the damage of Brexit.

 

Time to get rid of those ERG nutters - too much has been written about them. They belong to another era and voters should get rid of them.

 

 

 

Sunak always was a Brexit supporter and is committed to CPTPP membership, which is all but a fait accompli now. 

Additionally, Sunak is the son-in-law of one of India's most powerful and influential businessmen; you can guarantee that limiting prospects to further integrate with Asian economies is not his priority.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-call-with-prime-minister-of-canada-27-october-2022sunak

Edited November 1, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[sonyc 5,519]

1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Sunak always was a Brexit supporter and is committed to CPTPP membership, which is all but a fait accompli now. 

Additionally, Sunak is the son-in-law of one of India's most powerful and influential businessmen; you can guarantee that limiting prospects to further integrate with Asian economies is not his priority.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-call-with-prime-minister-of-canada-27-october-2022sunak

Yes, I'm not saying he would want us to join the SM and CU but like Maier in this article, I think he should do so. It would be the pragmatic thing to do. He could still retain his 'UK out of the EU' stance but claim he is restoring the economy, providing businesses large and small, a huge market for growth. The financial markets would welcome such a move.

We hear he is determined to be fiscally prudent and surely, if we (and he) are totally honest, a move towards greater economic alignment ought to trump any ideology. But we both know he won't because it's the hard Brexit cabal that have helped him to power.

It really is time, as this author of this piece states, to reassess, to consider what's best for the country. And leave the sovereignty crap behind because it never meant anything (to many people) in the first place.

Edited November 1, 2022 by sonyc

[Surfer 1,547]

Business leaders starting. to comment (finally) - where have you been guys? 

 

p.s. just seen he's the same guy who wrote the Guardian piece.

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Surfer

[littleyellowbirdie 2,550]

18 hours ago, sonyc said:

Yes, I'm not saying he would want us to join the SM and CU but like Maier in this article, I think he should do so. It would be the pragmatic thing to do. He could still retain his 'UK out of the EU' stance but claim he is restoring the economy, providing businesses large and small, a huge market for growth. The financial markets would welcome such a move.

We hear he is determined to be fiscally prudent and surely, if we (and he) are totally honest, a move towards greater economic alignment ought to trump any ideology. But we both know he won't because it's the hard Brexit cabal that have helped him to power.

It really is time, as this author of this piece states, to reassess, to consider what's best for the country. And leave the sovereignty crap behind because it never meant anything (to many people) in the first place.

The argument to realign with the single market is itself ideological. In this argument, there is no actual discussion of the practicalities of doing so, and what we might expect from the EU if we were to request it; it's simply saying in a roundabout sort of way that we should never have left the EU, so lets move back to EU membership in as many ways as possible without saying that's what we're doing. As I've said repeatedly now, CPTPP membership rules out membership of the single market and the customs union.

It's way too soon for that in my view. Being tied to the single market without being members is a recipe for interests to be sidelined without recourse in the long term. It's better to pursue options outside the EU and look to recover position by other means and revisit with the EU when things are calmer and we're not in such a weak position; I strongly suspect that if the Conservatives are replaced then their replacements will end up taking the same view. 

We and the EU are already adapting to develop a positive relationship post-Brexit, as evidenced by the new European forum aimed at including non-EU members. Things just have to run their course.

Edited November 2, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie