The Positive Brexit Thread

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

7 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

 Even the OBR says it's going to take a few more years to really understand how trade has been affected. 

It seems that the OBR has been handed its redundancy notice today............

[horsefly 4,288]

1 minute ago, Creative Midfielder said:

It seems that the OBR has been handed its redundancy notice today............

Haha! So bad is the economic strategy that the government refuses to allow the OBR to review its figures. Nothing more really needs to be said.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,518]

 

1 minute ago, horsefly said:

Haha! So bad is the economic strategy that the government refuses to allow the OBR to review its figures. Nothing more really needs to be said.

That bodes very badly indeed. Nevertheless, the state of things is from a cocktail of leaving the EU, the pandemic, and covid, rather than just one thing. The EU itself also has some very difficult financial challenges to contend with once things settle down from all of the half-measures it has taken under emergency powers to stabilise itself during the pandemic. 

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

Just now, horsefly said:

Haha! So bad is the economic strategy that the government refuses to allow the OBR to review its figures. Nothing more really needs to be said.

Very true, especially where LYB is concerned 😂

[littleyellowbirdie 2,518]

10 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Very true, especially where LYB is concerned 😂

Well, actually, something that needs to be said is that however awful the OBR forecasts published in December are, it concerns the cocktail of Brexit, the pandemic, and the jump in inflation triggered by Ukraine; it will be almost impossible to really glean much on specific elements. 

 

Edited September 23, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[horsefly 4,288]

45 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

 

That bodes very badly indeed. Nevertheless, the state of things is from a cocktail of leaving the EU, the pandemic, and covid, rather than just one thing. The EU itself also has some very difficult financial challenges to contend with once things settle down from all of the half-measures it has taken under emergency powers to stabilise itself during the pandemic. 

That's true. But we ridiculously self-inflicted the extra hugely destructive variable of Brexit. The links I posted above are written by economic experts who refer to that specific variable in abstraction from those other variables contributing to our present parlous state. 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

It seems that the OBR has been handed its redundancy notice today............

I expect further moves from this Goverment to keep information to a minimum.

[Yellow Fever 3,750]

2 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Well, actually, something that needs to be said is that however awful the OBR forecasts published in December are, it concerns the cocktail of Brexit, the pandemic, and the jump in inflation triggered by Ukraine; it will be almost impossible to really glean much on specific elements. 

 

Eh ? The OBR would clearly be commenting solely upon the effects of this budget taken in isolation upon the baseline economy. Obviously that's not something that the present incumbents wish us to see (or anybody else it seems - markets)! Might be too scary and likely show that we are now totally in the land of pure fact free ideology & bridges burnt gambles. It is after all the 'Office of Budget Responsibility' and it might well deem this budget 'irresponsible' as per the markets clearly do already. All a bit embarrassing.

What eventually actually happens is then of course influenced by the other factors - but not today's OBR 'forecast'.

As the saying goes - 'You break it  - you own it.' 

Edited September 23, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[littleyellowbirdie 2,518]

46 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Eh ? The OBR would clearly be commenting solely upon the effects of this budget taken in isolation upon the baseline economy. Obviously that's not something that the present incumbents wish us to see (or anybody else it seems - markets)! Might be too scary and likely show that we are now totally in the land of pure fact free ideology & bridges burnt gambles. It is after all the 'Office of Budget Responsibility' and it might well deem this budget 'irresponsible' as per the markets clearly do already. All a bit embarrassing.

What eventually actually happens is then of course influenced by the other factors - but not today's OBR 'forecast'.

As the saying goes - 'You break it  - you own it.' 

That's actually not right; the forecasts should be more far-reaching than simply a prediction of economic effects of these announcements in isolation, although to be fair I can't imagine they'd be very flattering about tax cuts at the present time.  https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-obr-likely-publish-full-forecasts-december-treasury-minister-2022-09-23/

[duke63 541]

The Bank of England might have to call an emergency meeting for next week to prop up the pound with a hefty interest rate rise. 
 

Britain under the Tories us sinking  like a stone. 
 

 

[Well b back 3,190]

2 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

That's actually not right; the forecasts should be more far-reaching than simply a prediction of economic effects of these announcements in isolation, although to be fair I can't imagine they'd be very flattering about tax cuts at the present time.  https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-obr-likely-publish-full-forecasts-december-treasury-minister-2022-09-23/

What would your plan be ? 
Those that were meant to invest in the U.K. by not getting taxed are withdrawing their investments, and the pound is sinking like a stone. Early indications are if these market moves do not stop the BOE will call an emergency meeting and increase rates by upto another % point.

This has backfired, she thought she could use money to bribe us into thinking she was great, but even those who you call idiots and naive have seen straight through it. Hidden in todays announcements was the attack on the Unions. This I fear has just moved us closer to a national strike as people will be united by the fact that those struggling have just been s*** on. 

[duke63 541]

I was thinking there was a chance of an election next summer but at this moment in time it looks more likely it will be before Xmas. 

Edited September 23, 2022 by duke63

[Well b back 3,190]

2 minutes ago, duke63 said:

I was thinking there was a chance of an election next summer but at this moment in time it looks more likely it will be before Xmas. 

I think they will try and bring Boris back before they go down the election route. When called to vote in a no confidence vote they have already proved their own interests are put ahead of the citizens of the U.K. so an election is unlikely. I suspect if there was an election now they would be destroyed. Any English parties would only need 2 policies, windfall taxes and getting rid of bankers bonuses, with any nationalist party outside England only needing one policy, do you want these people running your country.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,518]

10 hours ago, Well b back said:

What would your plan be ? 
Those that were meant to invest in the U.K. by not getting taxed are withdrawing their investments, and the pound is sinking like a stone. Early indications are if these market moves do not stop the BOE will call an emergency meeting and increase rates by upto another % point.

This has backfired, she thought she could use money to bribe us into thinking she was great, but even those who you call idiots and naive have seen straight through it. Hidden in todays announcements was the attack on the Unions. This I fear has just moved us closer to a national strike as people will be united by the fact that those struggling have just been s*** on. 

Definitely not this. The Keynesian principle of borrowing to stimulate when the economy is struggling is pretty widely accepted, but not for a giveaway that gives you more the better off you are and does nothing for the worst off. Pretty horrified that this is what the UK is stuck with until 2024, and they will, because they're screwed and they know it so are just going to cling on as long as they can. 

I must be honest, I'm wondering if the Queen heard Liz' plans when they met and just gave up at that stage. 

[horsefly 4,288]

1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Definitely not this. The Keynesian principle of borrowing to stimulate when the economy is struggling is pretty widely accepted, but not for a giveaway that gives you more the better off you are and does nothing for the worst off. Pretty horrified that this is what the UK is stuck with until 2024, and they will, because they're screwed and they know it so are just going to cling on as long as they can. 

I must be honest, I'm wondering if the Queen heard Liz' plans when they met and just gave up at that stage. 

Indeed! Keynesian arguments for borrowing were premised on investment in building infrastructure and creating jobs. Keynes frequently despaired of economics as a discipline because it was all too often discussed in isolation from its function as the source of creating a civilised and just society. Kwarteng's utterly irresponsible budget would appal him for both economic and moral reasons.

[Yellow Fever 3,750]

14 hours ago, Well b back said:

What would your plan be ? 
Those that were meant to invest in the U.K. by not getting taxed are withdrawing their investments, and the pound is sinking like a stone. Early indications are if these market moves do not stop the BOE will call an emergency meeting and increase rates by upto another % point.

This has backfired, she thought she could use money to bribe us into thinking she was great, but even those who you call idiots and naive have seen straight through it. Hidden in todays announcements was the attack on the Unions. This I fear has just moved us closer to a national strike as people will be united by the fact that those struggling have just been s*** on. 

Yes WBB - Truss is trying enact (without any true mandate - this is NOT the government and policies even elected under Johnson) her 'Britannia Unchained' mantra. She's trying to enact her revolution.

I rather suspect there will be a revolution (spell check had revulsion) but not the one she imagined.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes WBB - Truss is trying enact (without any true mandate - this is NOT the government and policies even elected under Johnson) her 'Britannia Unchained' mantra. She's trying to enact her revolution.

I rather suspect there will be a revolution (spell check had revulsion) but not the one she imagined.

And of course she doesn't have the backing of the greater number of Tory MPs. I would imagine she is sihtting herself there isn't a by election anytime soon.

[KernowCanary 214]

22 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

 

That bodes very badly indeed. Nevertheless, the state of things is from a cocktail of leaving the EU, the pandemic, and covid, rather than just one thing. The EU itself also has some very difficult financial challenges to contend with once things settle down from all of the half-measures it has taken under emergency powers to stabilise itself during the pandemic. 

Leaving the EU is the least of the reasons for this. 95 percent of it is between shutting down the economy for two years and the ongoing war.

A lot of experts during the lockdowns, actually said that there would be an aftershock effect after they would end.

[duke63 541]

20 minutes ago, KernowCanary said:

Leaving the EU is the least of the reasons for this. 95 percent of it is between shutting down the economy for two years and the ongoing war.

A lot of experts during the lockdowns, actually said that there would be an aftershock effect after they would end.

No one should be in any doubt how Brexit has damaged the UK economy. Most  Smaller businesses no longer find it viable to export to the EU.

[Well b back 3,190]

7 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Definitely not this. The Keynesian principle of borrowing to stimulate when the economy is struggling is pretty widely accepted, but not for a giveaway that gives you more the better off you are and does nothing for the worst off. Pretty horrified that this is what the UK is stuck with until 2024, and they will, because they're screwed and they know it so are just going to cling on as long as they can. 

I must be honest, I'm wondering if the Queen heard Liz' plans when they met and just gave up at that stage. 

What strikes me as totally bizarre is directors of BP will be given huge amounts of borrowed money. That money will then be paid back by the likes of us. So it is ok therefore to give said director more money and tax us all, but not tax them on profits they are making that are only being made because of the circumstances that result in them being given huge amounts of money.

[Yellow Fever 3,750]

If this market/investor led rout of the pound with Truss's policies turns into an even more serious currency crisis - say parity with the dollar in the next few days I wonder if SKS would go straight for a vote of no confidence? It would only take 40 or so Tories (and I'm guessing there are quite a few concerned ones already) that may then be thinking to take the hit now & live to fight another day or be gone forever? Just musing.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[littleyellowbirdie 2,518]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

What strikes me as totally bizarre is directors of BP will be given huge amounts of borrowed money. That money will then be paid back by the likes of us. So it is ok therefore to give said director more money and tax us all, but not tax them on profits they are making that are only being made because of the circumstances that result in them being given huge amounts of money.

A friend of mine rather wittily described it as 'socialism for the very rich'.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,518]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

If this market/investor led rout of the pound with Truss's policies turns into an even more serious currency crisis - say parity with the dollar in the next few days I wonder if SKS would go straight for a vote of no confidence? It would only take 40 or so Tories (and I'm guessing there are quite a few concerned ones already) that may then be thinking to take the hit now & live to fight another day or be gone forever? Just musing.

I do think that the time has come for Labour to lay out its policy stall. I also think it can afford to be a little bit bolder regarding its platform given the Conservatives have now abandoned a large chunk of their last manifesto and the last vestiges of pretence to fiscal responsibility.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

48 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

I do think that the time has come for Labour to lay out its policy stall. I also think it can afford to be a little bit bolder regarding its platform given the Conservatives have now abandoned a large chunk of their last manifesto and the last vestiges of pretence to fiscal responsibility.

Agreed. If Labour manage to get back in power, they will be faced with a mess. They have to explain to people now what they are going to do with the economy. If includes tax rises and further borrowing then so be it and let the electorate judge. If it doesn't then I am intrigued what their fiscal policy will be.

[Yellow Fever 3,750]

2 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

I do think that the time has come for Labour to lay out its policy stall. I also think it can afford to be a little bit bolder regarding its platform given the Conservatives have now abandoned a large chunk of their last manifesto and the last vestiges of pretence to fiscal responsibility.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/24/keir-starmer-unveils-green-growth-plan-to-counter-liz-trusss-tax-cuts

[Rock The Boat 1,326]

On 23/09/2022 at 17:07, Creative Midfielder said:

It seems that the OBR has been handed its redundancy notice today............

To be frank, I think we've had enough of so called experts, and in particular, the data modellers. We saw it with Covid and all the fake statistics and unbelievably wild assumptions and forecasts that bore no relation to reality. We saw it with the Blob trying to prevent Brexit after the country voted for it. And we are seeing it once more from the same people who led us into the current mess in the first place. So junk the lot of them, and if Truss and her friends get it wrong vote 'em out. If they get it right, let 'em stay.

[Well b back 3,190]

Says the man who brought to the Forum 

That guy from Ireland

Donald Trump

The New York Mayor

Nurse Campbell

The stealing of the vote

Alex Belfield 

At least 1/2 of those have criminal charges being laid against them, think I would trust the OBR, Chris Whitby, Patrick Vallance and the BOE a bit more than your group of heroes.

[sonyc 5,493]

29 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

To be frank, I think we've had enough of so called experts, and in particular, the data modellers. We saw it with Covid and all the fake statistics and unbelievably wild assumptions and forecasts that bore no relation to reality. We saw it with the Blob trying to prevent Brexit after the country voted for it. And we are seeing it once more from the same people who led us into the current mess in the first place. So junk the lot of them, and if Truss and her friends get it wrong vote 'em out. If they get it right, let 'em stay.

RTB, I believe I know your take on experts well enough but surely it's a step too far to compare epidemiologists and scientists on Sage with economic experts talking about the macro economy.

If you followed your logic unquestionably then you wouldn't want anyone to be educated!

It's the same logic as Trump and bleach. We know how that went.

I assume you are not being serious. And if you are you may be losing your senses old chap😅

Edited September 24, 2022 by sonyc

[horsefly 4,288]

10 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

To be frank, I think we've had enough of so called experts, and in particular, the data modellers. We saw it with Covid and all the fake statistics and unbelievably wild assumptions and forecasts that bore no relation to reality. We saw it with the Blob trying to prevent Brexit after the country voted for it. And we are seeing it once more from the same people who led us into the current mess in the first place. So junk the lot of them, and if Truss and her friends get it wrong vote 'em out. If they get it right, let 'em stay.

Of course you've had enough of experts; they keep pointing out that everything you have said, supported, and believe is utter tripe. The Covid modellers were right about the pandemic and saved millions of lives. Remainers have been proven completely right about the disaster Brexit has wrecked upon the country. And yet again your very obvious lack of expertise shows you comparing Truss' economic plan to that of Thatcher's, despite the fact Thatcher would never have considered borrowing billions for top-end tax cuts. Actually, the problem is not that you've had enough of experts, it's that you've never listened to a single one of them.

[duke63 541]

16 hours ago, Well b back said:

What strikes me as totally bizarre is directors of BP will be given huge amounts of borrowed money. That money will then be paid back by the likes of us. So it is ok therefore to give said director more money and tax us all, but not tax them on profits they are making that are only being made because of the circumstances that result in them being given huge amounts of money.

In reality the energy companies are no longer viable as their sales receipts are totally reliant on subsidies by the Government to ensure they are paid.

Truss £60 billion of subsidies only run till next spring. What happens then if the cost of energy is still the same? Another £60 billion to see us through the next 6 months? We have already seen what the markets think of this Governments borrowing plans.

Edited September 25, 2022 by duke63