ricardo 8,034 Posted December 6, 2018 I though i'd have a look at our promotion prospects by checking the data from the previous ten seasons of the Championship after 20 games and it throws up some very encouraging pointers. In 7 of the last ten seasons the team leading after 20 games went on to win the League. In 2 of the remaining 3 seasons the team leading after 20 games finished second Only once in the last ten seasons has the team leading after 20 games not finished in the top two. In five of the last ten seasons the top two after 20 games were the same top two after 46 games. Make of it what you will🤔 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sussexyellow 55 Posted December 6, 2018 I wonder how many of the other leaders after 20 games were as much of a surprise package as we are. It’s not that many weeks ago that we were hunkering down for a long spell in this division. Its probably irrelevant because bottom line is that we have the points and are there on merit, but one factor could be that they were predicted leaders with strong and experienced squads - Wolves last season, Newcastle the one before for instance, pretty much expected to be promoted before the season begun. That could be a bit of a differentiator. I am sure your feet are on the ground Ricardo, mine certainly are and that is, I think, where we need to be. OTBC 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted December 6, 2018 My understanding that in some of those seasons the club at the top has been well clear of the pack (Wolves last season) whereas we seem to have quite a tight group at the top. However were we to win the next three it would only require us to achieve around a point a game (relegation form) over the final 23 games to achieve a play off place. We should also bear in mind that our current points total includes a disastrous start to the season, whereas Were our points total since drawing at poorman road to played out over the season we would finish with 115 points Similar form from now until the end of the season equates to 105 points Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
splendidrush 720 Posted December 6, 2018 I'm not getting ahead of myself with this, just enjoying the ride, see where it takes us. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
spencer 1970 214 Posted December 6, 2018 It all looks great but 9 pretty tough games after Bolton, followed by an nailed on win against someone. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Surfer 1,547 Posted December 6, 2018 (edited) There's plenty of scenarios, I chose to lop off. the first four games and see what the estimated points total would be then - 99. My XLS attached is anyone wants to play with it for other scenarios Alt Championship Table Dec 03.xlsx Edited June 4, 2020 by Surfer Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Badger 2,745 Posted December 6, 2018 Your stats seem to imply a 90% chance of being promoted Ricardo, which sounds good to me! The only nagging doubt is that we have good spells followed by really bad spells in both the last two seasons - but then we have a different and probably better motivated and deeper squad? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 8,034 Posted December 6, 2018 Always good to have doubts but we are almost at the mid point of the season now. I think we can trust that the league table is now a true reflection of relative strengths. We have a good grip on an auto spot and I don't think we will easily relinquish it. It's in our own hands. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted December 6, 2018 title... nothing less Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SwindonCanary 457 Posted December 6, 2018 The table this year is a lot tighter than normal, so perditions are going to be a little different, having wrote that the signs are looking good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ROBFLECK 134 Posted December 7, 2018 Interesting data there Ricardo , just must have been doing some research behind a screen iso ... well you know 😉 I think the German is showing that he's put together a resilient bunch and I don't think we'll see a serious dip in form / results like we did when Neil was at the helm... Still , I think it's going to be tight and a lot will be hanging on whether we suffer injuries to our top players and wether we get the rub of the green ,... It makes good reading though ! #otbc 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 8,034 Posted December 7, 2018 There will be setbacks Rob, but weve seen enough to start beleiving that this is more than a flash in the pan. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Woodman 92 Posted December 7, 2018 "whether we get the rub of the green..." Definitely had some of it in the last couple of home games. Inside of the post v Rotherham to go 0-2 down and a borderline offside decision in our favour (Rhodes) in the Millwall game. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Leedscanary 389 Posted December 7, 2018 I seem to remember Webber at Huddersfield scouting an unknown German manager who struggled in his first season then went on to win promotion in his second. Lightning doesn't strike twice... or does it?? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ginja 43 Posted December 7, 2018 5 hours ago, Woodman said: "whether we get the rub of the green..." Definitely had some of it in the last couple of home games. Inside of the post v Rotherham to go 0-2 down and a borderline offside decision in our favour (Rhodes) in the Millwall game. We'd have still won 3-2 and Rhodes was onside. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,204 Posted December 7, 2018 8 hours ago, Woodman said: "whether we get the rub of the green..." Definitely had some of it in the last couple of home games. Inside of the post v Rotherham to go 0-2 down and a borderline offside decision in our favour (Rhodes) in the Millwall game. Lol I don’t think it’s been seriously suggested Rhodes was offside Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
