The Never-President Trump

[Yellow Fever 3,792]

20 minutes ago, Nuff Said said:

Putin would see a US withdrawal as encouragement to try and push his aggressive stance with former USSR-aligned countries, so a likely escalation of the existing war with Ukraine and possible new conflict nearby. Which would require a response from those left in NATO.

 

It’s pretty easy to see how things would deteriorate, hard to see an upside of a decision to leave, whether or not the organisation survives.

All it takes is for the US to look like an unreliable ally of last resort to force many exposed countries to think about re(arming).

Japan & Korea for starters (unless they could get cast iron assurances from China!). Australia ?

Germany, Sweden even Italy.

Where would Turkey go ? 

Even Iran may rethink it current positioning. 

All in all a far more dangerous world.

 

Edited January 22 by Yellow Fever

[sonyc 5,526]

5 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

The odd thing SC is that whatever your political views in the UK I can see nothing good for the UK (or anybody else) coming form Trump. Beyond all the litigation and imbecilic rhetoric its simply a me first then America crude isolationism.

What could we expect - Breakup of NATO, US import tariffs on everything - Trump cosying up to Putin and I guess Xi too. I suppose that would drive forward by necessity for protection other regional alliances - the EU etc.

Been in and out all day ...but I recall reading John Kelly's comments about Trump. They chime with your worries about what might be expected. His own chief of staff.....

[Herman 9,779]

 

[TheRock 171]

New Hampshire Primaries tonight. Trump fifteen points ahead in the polls. Interestingly the independent NH electorate can vote in this, if they applied to do so in October 2023.

[horsefly 4,301]

Anyone idiotic enough to wish for  Trump presidency needs to watch this https://www.itv.com/watch/trump-the-return/10a5226a0001B/10a5226a0001 During his presidency the extremist lunatic attempted to create a military force personally loyal to him and not the US Constitution (Copying exactly what Hitler did with the SS). Democracy will be finished if Trump gets a second term.

[ricardo 7,395]

This thread should be fun tomorrow.

[Herman 9,779]

27 minutes ago, ricardo said:

This thread should be fun tomorrow.

We may see Jools make a rare appearance. God help us.😂

[horsefly 4,301]

Compare and contrast

https://x.com/LouisHenwood/status/1749811836671984044?s=20

[Iwans Big Toe 312]

On 22/01/2024 at 09:16, Yellow Fever said:

Civil Case.

Yes and civil cases are brought when someone feels they have been wronged but know there is not enough evidence to convict criminally. The U.S.A. is the most litigious country in the world because standard of proof is much lower in a civil case.

So all of the geniuses using a civil case to prove the guilt of someone, don't understand how the US criminal legal system works. It is similar to the UK, innocent until proven guilty and the burden of proof is on the prosecutor. Of which they should be thankful, because anyone could accuse them and then the burden to prove their innocence would be upon them. I'm not sure if this is understood though because "orange man bad".

 

 

Edited January 23 by Iwans Big Toe

[Iwans Big Toe 312]

13 hours ago, horsefly said:

Anyone idiotic enough to wish for  Trump presidency needs to watch this https://www.itv.com/watch/trump-the-return/10a5226a0001B/10a5226a0001 During his presidency the extremist lunatic attempted to create a military force personally loyal to him and not the US Constitution (Copying exactly what Hitler did with the SS). Democracy will be finished if Trump gets a second term.

And during Biden's Presidency Russia invaded the Ukraine and NATO started a proxy war.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 23 by Iwans Big Toe

[Iwans Big Toe 312]

13 hours ago, horsefly said:

Anyone idiotic enough to wish for  Trump presidency needs to watch this https://www.itv.com/watch/trump-the-return/10a5226a0001B/10a5226a0001 During his presidency the extremist lunatic attempted to create a military force personally loyal to him and not the US Constitution (Copying exactly what Hitler did with the SS). Democracy will be finished if Trump gets a second term.

I don't think I have ever used someone's post twice.

But, when it is so lacking in logic, it's necessary. So Trump getting elected will end democracy in the UK? Or are you just parroting what you've heard in the mainstream media?

 

 

Edited January 23 by Iwans Big Toe

[A Load of Squit 5,170]

It's obvious from last night antics that the NH Primary was stollen from Haley, we need someone to release the Kraken and show the people that these vote dumps that came in are a disgrace to democracy. 

All of the votes should be discounted until they find 23,497 votes for Haley that will give her the victory she earned.

 

[ricardo 7,395]

Its going to be Trump in November isn't it?

Now what odds Biden backing out for Newsom?

[Yellow Fever 3,792]

15 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Its going to be Trump in November isn't it?

Now what odds Biden backing out for Newsom?

There was never any doubt that the GOP would go for Trump. However its very early days on anything else. I suspect both candidates could yet be dropped or 'retire' as Trumps likely convictions occur which will alienate many of the less cultish GOP voters and independents. For the Democrats it will as before likely come down to who is best placed to beat Trump - but if Trump should go then I'm sure Biden would as well.

Both parties presumably have plans in place as to what to do if either of the elderly primary candidates departs.

[Yellow Fever 3,792]

I found this article today quite a good read - and in-line with comments I made earlier vs a Trump return! Could of added it to the Brexit thread.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/24/keir-starmer-donald-trump-special-relationship  

Pulled out the last couple or paragraphs -

But the calculus is somewhat different in the shadow of a Trump revival. The case for a more European Britain gets easier to make at home and the strategic promise of more Britain in Europe gains potential resonance in Brussels, Paris and Berlin.

The year 2024 feels both a long way from 2016 and disturbingly like a sequel. The Brexit referendum asked a profound question about what it means for Britain to be a major European democracy outside the EU. Once we have left, what is the actual destination? The Tories have had eight years to supply an answer and delivered nothing but fantasy, fear and failure. It won’t be explicit in the campaign but this year’s general election asks the exact same question again. It is Labour’s turn to answer.

[sonyc 5,526]

34 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I found this article today quite a good read - and in-line with comments I made earlier vs a Trump return! Could of added it to the Brexit thread.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/24/keir-starmer-donald-trump-special-relationship  

Pulled out the last couple or paragraphs -

But the calculus is somewhat different in the shadow of a Trump revival. The case for a more European Britain gets easier to make at home and the strategic promise of more Britain in Europe gains potential resonance in Brussels, Paris and Berlin.

The year 2024 feels both a long way from 2016 and disturbingly like a sequel. The Brexit referendum asked a profound question about what it means for Britain to be a major European democracy outside the EU. Once we have left, what is the actual destination? The Tories have had eight years to supply an answer and delivered nothing but fantasy, fear and failure. It won’t be explicit in the campaign but this year’s general election asks the exact same question again. It is Labour’s turn to answer.

I read that too. The UK will be really isolated defensively unless we manage closer relations with our biggest partner, Europe. Even two World.Wars before still didn't stop people voting Brexit (and many who were older voters too). The trouble I have is that I'm unsure Starmer will act strongly. Given that the mood in the UK is now firmly that Brexit has not been a good thing for business or FOM then you'd think he might be more definite. There's keeping your powder dry and being very honest. We've watched Sunak become less technocrat and more cynical and even deflect many issues (his COVID appearance was callous). The Tory party no longer resembles a Conservative one. Starmer, I'm fearing, might be someone similarly, who just wants power and will say (or not say) anything. I fear for the lack of an ideological vision.

I realise the argument about actually getting to power for Labour is a massive thing and they have so many obstacles. It's a concern. Yet, maybe what we will get under him is a new kind of Conservative Party (the former one when more adults were in charge and who were not liars...i.e. like the folk who deflect any question put to them now....cannot actually answer, who don't appear on Newsnight etc ...not to mention the populists.and MPs who are in it just for themselves).

I see the current crop of Labour MPs as very different I must add but I have a nagging feeling deep down.

As for Trump and Brexit, it's been said before, these are dangerous times and we are isolated as a country. Those words 'protecting our borders" rings so hollow right now. Another 10 years or perhaps 5 ought to see a further change in public opinion. A lot can happen. That's the more optimistic way of seeing it. What we won't hear very much is from Brexiters say much at all.in the subject...all quiet from them. (except WBB, honourable mention to the poster on this forum, but my comment wasn't about posters but in the country at large).

Like your previous post hinted at I still wonder too whether Biden might step down and Trump won't be able to run. It's a hope though not anything else more substantial.

 

Edited January 24 by sonyc

[Yellow Fever 3,792]

20 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I read that too. The UK will be really isolated defensively unless we manage closer relations with our biggest partner, Europe. Even two World.Wars before still didn't stop people voting Brexit (and many who were older voters too). The trouble I have is that I'm unsure Starmer will act strongly. Given that the mood in the UK is now firmly that Brexit has not been a good thing for business or FOM then you'd think he might be more definite. There's keeping your powder dry and being very honest. We've watched Sunak become less technocrat and more cynical and even deflect many issues (his COVID appearance was callous). The Tory party no longer resembles a Conservative one. Starmer, I'm fearing, might be someone similarly, who just wants power and will say (or not say) anything. I fear for the lack of an ideological vision.

I realise the argument about actually getting to power for Labour is a massive thing and they have so many obstacles. It's a concern. Yet, maybe what we will get under him is a new kind of Conservative Party (the former one when more adults were in charge and who were not liars...i.e. like the folk who deflect any question put to them now....cannot actually answer, who don't appear on Newsnight etc ...not to mention the populists.and MPs who are in it just for themselves).

I see the current crop of Labour MPs as very different I must add but I have a nagging feeling deep down.

As for Trump and Brexit, it's been said before, these are dangerous times and we are isolated as a country. Those words 'protecting our borders" rings so hollow right now. Another 10 years or perhaps 5 ought to see a further change in public opinion. A lot can happen. That's the more optimistic way of seeing it. What we won't hear very much is from Brexiters say much at all.in the subject...all quiet from them. (except WBB, honourable mention to the poster on this forum, but my comment wasn't about posters but in the country at large).

Like your previous post hinted at I still wonder too whether Biden might step down and Trump won't be able to run. It's a hope though not anything else more substantial.

 

I'm actually more confident that SKS in power won't be so reticent or just another Tory (that's actually Tory electioneering at play - they are all the same, all as bad as each other, no different  - hint so keep the devil you know....).

It's more not to leave obvious attack targets so far out from the elections given the expected culture wars / media / gutter press we have at present. Facts be dammed! That said a fuller return to the CU or SM is for the election after.

We clearly need to become closer to Europe and sort much of the Brexit induced self-damage  - as per the article a Trump presidency will make that an imperative!

[TheRock 171]

Following last night's result, interestingly the bookies now have Trump odds-on to win in November. He was even money last week.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2024/winner?selectionName=donald-trump

[horsefly 4,301]

Rees-Mogg says he supports Trump because he would be better disposed to the UK. Yes, that's the same Trump who, like Putin,  supported Brexit in order to undermine European power. The same Trump who in 4-years of presidency not only ignored attempts to negotiate any kind of trade arrangements in advance of Brexit, but actually slapped massive tariffs on key UK industries (steel, whisky etc. Biden, of course, removed those tariffs). The same Trump who wants to destroy NATO and imperil UK security. Either Mogg is a thick as sh*te, or he is anti-UK. https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/donald-trump-2024-rees-mogg-b2480506.html

[A Load of Squit 5,170]

Biden won 68% of the voted despite not being on the Democrat ticket, that's a good night for Sleepy Joe.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/01/24/biden-wins-new-hampshire-democratic-primary/ 

Even more good news for Joe.

https://www.mediaite.com/news/ex-trump-fox-host-says-nh-was-good-night-for-joe-biden-on-live-tv-enraged-trump-hammers-her-for-it/

This was actually a fairly good night for Joe Biden. When you look at our voter analysis, only 10% said “I would not vote for Joe Biden if he’s the nominee.”.

He won a plurality of voters who said he was too old. He won a majority of voters who are upset about the Gaza war. So the divides in the Democrat Party, and this is a small sample size, but perhaps aren’t as stark as one would think.

 

But when you look at the Republican Party, 7 in 10 Nikki Haley voters said “I would not vote for Trump.”.

There was a Des Moines Register poll. 43% said, no, I wouldn’t vote for Trump.

If I’m Trump, I sit back and I exclusively focus on the general election. I take the posture of a presumptive nominee. I focus on number one, uniting the party and number two, winning the independents, which Nikki Haley won 55 to 39%. That’s what I would do.

[A Load of Squit 5,170]

He really is bat sh!t mental.

He also made a more specific false claim about elections. He said he’s always won New Hampshire, not only in primaries, which he has, but in every general election. That’s wrong too, Jake. He lost New Hampshire, in the 20 — in the 2016 general election, to Democrat Hillary Clinton. Lost it again in the 2020 general election to Joe Biden. So, completely untrue.

He also claimed, Jake, something he’s been saying in the lead up to this primary. That is that Democrats were able to vote.

In fact, only registered Republicans and people registered as undeclared, so, New Hampshire Independents were permitted to cast ballots, in the Republican primary. The deadline to switch your affiliation was more than three months ago, in early October. So no, Democrats, registered Democrats, were not voting in this election.

And one more thing, Jake. I heard him say that people are flooding in from mental institutions, across the border.

I asked Trump campaign for evidence of this claim, which he says at pretty much every rally. Find me some source, some anything to suggest that foreign countries are emptying their mental institutions, as he’s claiming, to send people across the border as migrants. His own campaign could not find a single shred of evidence.

[ricardo 7,395]

22 hours ago, ricardo said:

This thread should be fun tomorrow.

😉

[Barbe bleu 827]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

😉

There's 50 states and this pre-election ballot was just one state right?

Its probably a good time to invest in keyboard manufacturers.

[Hook's-Walk-Canary 213]

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,551]

If Trump's elected, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and a large chunk of South East Asia will be looking to us for military support in Asia. This is happening as it is, with AUKUS and a new defence treaty with Japan in 2023. France will also be interested with its own interests in the region but will have to be more focussed on mainland Europe than we have to be. Doubtless France will be as interested in cooperating with us on that score as we are with them.

Whatever happens though, there is no way that we, as one of few nations with an independent nuclear deterrent, massive cultural links across continents, the largest defence spender in Europe, and access to the five eyes intelligence network, will ever be isolated defensively; we're too useful.

Edited January 24 by littleyellowbirdie

[sonyc 5,526]

28 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

If Trump's elected, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and a large chunk of South East Asia will be looking to us for military support in Asia. This is happening as it is, with AUKUS and a new defence treaty with Japan in 2023. France will also be interested with its own interests in the region but will have to be more focussed on mainland Europe than we have to be. Doubtless France will be as interested in cooperating with us on that score as we are with them.

Whatever happens though, there is no way that we, as one of few nations with an independent nuclear deterrent, massive cultural links across continents, the largest defence spender in Europe, and access to the five eyes intelligence network, will ever be isolated defensively; we're too useful.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/13/labour-accuses-government-of-failing-to-reverse-cuts-in-defence-spending

Gen Patrick Sanders has urged more spending on defence in the last two days. He is clearly worried we are not prepared and even calls for a civil army to begin recruiting. One thing about Labour (and I know your views about them LYB on the whole) is that they have long been calling for massively increased investment. (article above...I rate Lammy btw). Of course, Downing St have dismissed him. Further, three times as many service people are leaving as those joining. 

I'm unconvinced we are not defensively weakened even accepting your points about calls to help. Our whole infrastructure in so many areas, defence being one, health, local government, education being others has been crudely cut in the last decade. I'm sure it's one of the reasons why Ben Wallace resigned. It DOESN'T need tax cuts as some Tories have stated in the last week (to stimulate growth to pay for defence is their stance!), it needs investment and must be paid for.

Anyway, half time is over....

[littleyellowbirdie 2,551]

5 minutes ago, sonyc said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/13/labour-accuses-government-of-failing-to-reverse-cuts-in-defence-spending

Gen Patrick Sanders has urged more spending on defence in the last two days. He is clearly worried we are not prepared and even calls for a civil army to begin recruiting. One thing about Labour (and I know your views about them LYB on the whole) is that they have long been calling for massively increased investment. (article above...I rate Lammy btw). Of course, Downing St have dismissed him. Further, three times as many service people are leaving as those joining. 

I'm unconvinced we are not defensively weakened even accepting your points about calls to help. Our whole infrastructure in so many areas, defence being one, health, local government, education being others has been crudely cut in the last decade. I'm sure it's one of the reasons why Ben Wallace resigned. It DOESN'T need tax cuts as some Tories have stated in the last week (to stimulate growth to pay for defence is their stance!), it needs investment and must be paid for.

Anyway, half time is over....

No dispute over defense spending being too light in relation to our commitments, but regardless of that we spend more on defense than any other European nation right now. Our overall readiness is another subject, but there's no way we'll ever be isolated on defence.

Edited January 24 by littleyellowbirdie

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

copy cat talk of the trope for more war, more profits for greedy arms producers and compulsory military service for our generals, politicians and warmongers sons and daughters, to show themselves to set good examples.

We spend more on arms than any other nation in Europe, bravo,  so far that has killed half a million Ukrainians. we hate Russia and our sons and daughters should be prepared to die for this hate. Pathetic dangerous talk, it is no wonder we are in this state of denial, just look around this crumbling orifice. Still pretending that they are an empire? my smelly old socks.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,551]

1 minute ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

copy cat talk of the trope for more war, more profits for greedy arms producers and compulsory military service for our generals, politicians and warmongers sons and daughters, to show themselves to set good examples.

We spend more on arms than any other nation in Europe, bravo,  so far that has killed half a million Ukrainians. we hate Russia and our sons and daughters should be prepared to die for this hate. Pathetic dangerous talk, it is no wonder we are in this state of denial, just look around this crumbling orifice. Still pretending that they are an empire? my smelly old socks.

Go back to your cave, you idiot.

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

2 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Go back to your cave, you idiot.

Thank you, its quiet a large cave, calling people idiot is BiBi's game, and he is a criminal running away from being judged.