Bethnal Yellow and Green

So - I have been looking into it and it is even more complicated than I first thought. The 1,170 mins threshold mentioned in the Pinkun piece is 50% of all minutes up to the 26th game (I thought it was 50% of all minutes in a season). To qualify the player needs to have played in 50% of all 'Available Minutes' in the previous 12 months from receiving their GBE. So for Crnac, that is the 26 games to date, after the 27th game he'll have needed to reach 1,215 (1,170 + 45), after 28 games it will be 1,260 minutes, 29 games 1,305 mins etc etc. However, if a player has been unavailable through injury, those games are discounted. As Cordoba was unavailable for quite a few games, I suspect he already hits the 50% of available minutes. This is only one way to get the GBE though! The club can apply through the normal GBE points process, and as the Championship is a Band 2 league, a player would only need to appear in roughly 35% of minutes across a season to get the 15 points needed. If they play internationally they will also get extra points (depending on the minutes played). As for the allocation of slots. I think Norwich will be okay to get all 4 next season as having England youth international players like Crisene and Fisher gives a slot. Between Doyle, Gunn, Stacy, Fisher and Crisene I think Norwich should be good to hit the 30% of minutes to English qualifying players.

Not sure Nunez is ever anything less than delighted. While injuries are difficult for players, Nunez will have known the verdict for 3 or 4 days by the time of Onel's video, he isn't going to be moping around everyday until he is fit again. He is also probably thankful it isn't as bad as it could have been.

I find it odd that Iwan would rather someone bite him, than spit at him. Not even spit onto him, just spit at him.

Yes, but if Norwich Forson doesn't reach the minutes needed until May, then Norwich could convert then. They don't have to strictly convert in February or September. Depending on Forson's minutes between now and the end of the season and assuming Cordoba and Schwartau get a couple more games each, Norwich will have 2 or 3 slots available at the beginning of the summer transfer window, not September as you seemed to suggest.

Saw this earlier on Jurasek, despite some concerns on recent form, his numbers still have him as one of the better attacking players in the Czech League. Obviously he has been in one of the strongest teams in the league, but I feel some of the comments on his drop in form are a little overblown. He basically had an excellent breakthrough season, but hasn't managed to keep getting better and better, which certainly isn't uncommon for youth players. The talent is obviously there, just needs to be unlocked again.

Norwich ended up paying €6.5m for Buendia, so a similar headline fee. Sainz was obviously an exception due to the clause in his contract. Jurasek is a full Czech international and was very highly rated only 18 months ago, feel this could end up being an absolute steal for Norwich in the long run. Youth player development isn't linear though, so it is hard to know just how he will progress over the next few seasons.

I guess it depends also on how the deal is structured. If Norwich have managed to get a lot of the payments linked to the player's performance and a promotion bonus, then it mitigates the risk. I suspect they did a similar deal for Crnac as the headline fees are higher than would be expected for such players in those leagues. Just because Attanasio has money, I don't think Norwich are going to suddenly start overspending on players.

If you loan out a player who is using an ESC slot, he will then take one slot from his parent club and 1 slot from the team bringing him in on loan (this stops clubs signing lots of players who'd need slots and just loaning them out until they qualify). If a club sells a player the ESC slot then becomes vacant. I don't think there is an employment law issue here - the Home Office pretty much delegate footballer work permits to the FA - it is just the wording of the regulations that allow the conversion of a slot 'after one window has passed'

There are not fixed periods when ESCs can be converted. A player can have their ESC converted to a work permit (thus freeing the ESC slot) anytime after 'one full domestic transfer window has passed' after they signed. So for Cordoba, Schwartau, Forson and Crnac, they can convert anytime after February 3rd. Crnac has already hit the minutes required so can be converted on Feb 3rd, Cordoba needs 20 more minutes, Schwartau is only 200 mins away from meeting the target, Forson about 600 mins. If Cordoba, Schwartau and Forson gets the game time (league only, not cups) then Norwich will be able to convert before the summer window, giving themselves 3 slots. Jurasek's ESC can be converted to a work permit, after the summer window closes and he has reached the required minutes. (The requirement of minutes is calculated on a 12 month rolling basis not season to season, so he needs to play 1,170 league minutes in a calendar year).

Yeah, signing without a permit has been done before but the player has never then gained a permit and effectively joined the team outside a transfer window. The FA didn’t want ESCs in the first place but bowed to pressure from clubs (via the leagues). They definitely won’t be happy that Norwich have managed to bend the rules to get 5 slots in one season when the maximum is meant to be 4. In theory a team could get 8 slots in one season with the same trick. I would imagine if too many other teams do the same in the future the rules will be tweaked to say slots can’t be converted until 1st June. Kudos to Knapper and team for exploiting a loophole, will be interesting to see how long it lasts.

Squad registration changes need to happen within the windows, but as Jurasek is counts as an under 21 year old for this season, he doesn't need to be registered in the squad. I'm not sure whether a player who doesn't have a permit or ESC would be able to be registered or not. There might not be anything specifically stopping a club from registering a player who doesn't have the clearance as it is probably assumed that no club would bother to do so. There is a loophole here as the registration rules don't seem to have been updated since the arrival of the ESC.

Sainz and Sargent highly likely to both leave in the summer, so it will only be 2 of the 4 of those players for a few months. I still wouldn’t be surprised if the offer from the MlS that cropped up in the summer doesn’t come back again this month. Sargent seemed pretty open to a return to the US and the interest in him won’t have gone away. It’s their close season so they might be prepared to push a little harder this time around.

I was looking at the announcement stuff and wondering how close to the line it is to be classified as 'work'. Seems very close if he isn't allowed to do external media. Club must really like him as a player if they are prepared to go to the these lengths to bring him in.

Seems that is exactly what has happened. I'm surprised as I thought it wouldn't be possible to do this, but Knapper has found a way through the red tape.

Even if Nunez is out for a while, I think Norwich will still land in the 7th to 12th range - especially with Sargent coming back into the team. Getting a good loan is pretty difficult, especially to cover an injury, as who really wants to send a young player who will just lose their place when Nunez is back? A loan on those terms could easily cost in excess of £1m which is just better saved right now. If the club know a good Premier League youngster who can come on loan, although not be expected to be first choice, won't cost a lot and can actually contribute, then yes get them but it is a tough ask. Slimane is only 3/4 weeks away from returning and Forsyth will also be back soon. If Norwich can't get a long-term target for midfield landed in Jan, then just delay it until the summer. I don't think a change in a few places massively impacts who they can attract, as much of Norwich's appeal right now is based on 'we'll develop you and sell you' rather than we'll get into the Premier League soon.

All the calculators suggest that none of Forson, Cordoba, Schwartau, Crnac or Jurasek would be able to get a permit. I imagine Schwartau would be the easiest to convince the panel of their 'exceptional talent' given him being just 18 and having a couple of years of league football under his belt. There is potentially a case for the other players as well, but less convinced they would get one. I'm not even sure Norwich have 4 ESC slots given these are based on minutes given to players who qualify for England, and there aren't too many of those in the Norwich squad. Hanley and Duffy, although both 'homegrown' wouldn't count towards the ESC slots, although Gunn does as he was eligible for England when Norwich first signed him. Obviously, Norwich wouldn't be pushing so hard for Jurasek if they didn't have a slot for him (or confident they could get him his permit), but I wouldn't be surprised if once he is in, there are no more slots to hand out. Won't be an issue in the summer as anyone signed in the summer will be able to get a full permit as they have all played a decent amount (Forson might be borderline, but haven't double checked).

There is a difference between 'writing off a season' and spending significant money or changing long term transfer plans chasing a slim possibility. Say Norwich have a good idea they can get their first choice player in the summer, but not now, is it worth moving to plan B, C or D in January just to cover off an injury? If you are within a couple of points of automatic spots, then it probably is worth the risk, if you are 4 points off the play-offs and not looking good enough to actually get promoted, then probably not. I don't think there is much chance that doing minimal business now means Norwich are going to suddenly finish 13 places worse.

Wagner was also very keen to point out he was told there was only a 6% chance of reaching the play-offs in January. It would have been Knapper telling him that. It may have been the decision to minimise the window activity was taken after Wagner talked it up. If he did, then Norwich won't have one to give to Jurasek, which would make them trying to sign him this window odd. I suspect Schwartau got one as it is slightly easy for young players. There is a chance one of the other three could get a permit on appeal, but Schwartau is probably the closest to qualifying given his age, youth appearances for Denmark and playing in Europe with Brondby.

The club doesn't tend to do injury updates outside of the press conferences. Thorup will be asked about it on Friday and he is generally pretty honest about injuries. Dean Smith tended to try and keep things more secret and wouldn't give much away with injuries, pretty sure there were a couple of occasions where he straight up lied and said a player was available when he wasn't and vice versa. I suspect Knapper has pretty much given up on this season, he basically told Wagner there was no chance of play-offs this time last year hence no action in the transfer window. So even if Nunez has a nasty injury I doubt it will change their transfer plans drastically. If there is a chance for them to move something they intend to do in the summer to now they might go for it, as long as it isn't drastically more expensive. Suspect Norwich are a little hamstrung in this window as they are running out of ESC slots, and these can only be converted into work permits in Feb. Cordoba, Forson and Crnac almost certainly needed them and Jurasek may need one as well. That is likely Norwich's full quota.

Personally, I think one of his strengths is his intelligence. He’s very good at pinning defenders which makes a bit of space between the back line and midfield, as well as making near post runs to draw them away from the back post making space for Sainz. I don’t think he is expected to make lots of runs in behind as that isn’t the way the team has been set up - he certainly isn’t expected to be a “back-to-goal hold the ball up” striker. He can often look like he’s not in space, but the idea is for him to draw in defenders in order to create space for others. He has really struggled with fatigue over the Christmas/New Year period which has impacted his effectiveness. But that isn’t unusual for overseas players in their first Championship season, especially in a team like Norwich which play with a high intensity.

Unlikely, WyScout costs have gone up a lot and I can’t justify it at the moment. Can’t find much video of Jurasek in the usual places so can’t really say much about him. The little bits I’ve seen have looked good, but not enough to make a firm judgement.

Crnac has the makings of a very good striker. He has good technique and generally good shot placement, often getting them into the corners and has a good ball striking technique. He needs to up his shot volume and strengthen up but this will come as he adjusts to the league and new training regime. Is worth considering that JHT uses his strikers slightly differently to many others. He generally uses them to make space for a wide attacker to come narrower. Hence why Sainz has been so much more prolific this season. Before he got injured Sargent’s goal scoring was slower this season compared to other Championship seasons for him. So I don’t think any striker in a JHT team is going to be massively high scoring.

And sadly I suspect any deal when he was sold would likely have clauses that relate to performances which now will not be met. Aarons moving on will likely see Norwich receive less for him in the long run. The only upside might be if he smashes it at Valencia and then is sold on for big money, some of which goes to Bournemouth and that triggers a profit for them and slice comes to Norwich! (Norwich will receive a small cut through the mandatory payment a club receives for developing a player, but given Aarons arrived at Norwich around 16 I don't think it will be that much, Luton may receive more).

Can't see a Championship club that is getting parachute payments selling their main striker to another team in the league for as little as £3m. Think you'd have to go to around £6/£7m to tempt them to sell, even with 12 months left on his deal and he definitely isn't worth that to Norwich. Given the premier cost of strikers and homegrown players, having a 2nd choice striker as a homegrown player isn't the most efficient use of resources. I can see why the club want a homegrown keeper or two, as they tend to be cheaper players. As for club grown, this has to be a player who has been at the club for 12 months up-to the end of their U19 season. So Schwartau will qualify as club grown by the end of the summer (although not 'home grown'), as will Fisher, Forsyth, Hills and Gibbs. I don't think it is too much of a concern.

The fact he managed to keep them at the same level despite having the best players regularly sold off and replaced by worse ones (and an 8 point deduction) is a pretty impressive achievement. Brought in to keep the club's head above water until the takeover was completed, was never likely to survive when new owners arrived. If they do go for Moyes though it isn't much more than a side-step but can see the players at Everton are starting to tire of Dyche's methods so a change may freshen things up for a while.