DM relegation predictions

[morty 0]

[quote user="can u sit down please"]I didn''t know if it was one of your humorous answers.[/quote]Ah yes, I can see how the single word "No" could be totally misconstrued as humorous.[:|]

[can u sit down please 0]

My heads gone.

[CambridgeCanary 0]

The Times thinks all teams will get more than 31 points and that we will survive on 37.

dectech.co.uk

[ricardo 7,400]

[quote user="Making Plans"]The bad news - they have us finishing with 31ptsThe good news - they have us finishing in 17thThe 3 to go down18th Palace 30pts19th Sunderland 30pts20th West Ham 29pts

NORWICH (Norwich result first)

Jan 11: Everton (a) 0-1Jan 18: Hull City (h) 1-1Jan 28: Newcastle United (h) 2-2Feb 1: Cardiff City (a) 1-2Feb 8: Manchester City (h) 1-1Feb 12: West Ham United (a) 1-2Feb 22: Tottenham Hotspur (h) 1-3Mar 1: Aston Villa (a) 0-0Mar 8: Stoke City (h) 1-0Mar 15: Southampton (a) 0-2Mar 22: Sunderland (h) 2-1Mar 29: Swansea City (a) 1-2Apr 5: West Bromwich Albion (h) 1-1Apr 12: Fulham (a) 0-2Apr 19: Liverpool (h) 0-4Apr 26: Manchester United (a) 0-2May 3: Chelsea (a) 1-4May 11: Arsenal (h) 1-3POINTS: 31POSITION: 17thVERDICT:

Chris Hughton''s side have the most daunting run-in of all those

scrapping it out at the bottom and, despite losing the final five

matches, they scrape home.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2536382/West-Ham-Sunderland-Fulham-Sportsmails-Premier-League-relegation-predictions.html

[/quote]I had to laugh, someone should keep this until the season ends.It is total nonsense, the biggest load of bull I''ve seen in ages.

[ricardo 7,400]

The Hull 44 points is hilarious.

[can u sit down please 0]

Although I think that te final points tally is crazy? When you look at the results, they do look possibilities...

[Warren Hill 0]

You can''t possibly think we''ll beat Poyet''s Sunderland!!

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,450]

I''m not sure I even understand the question? Are we saying if we end up on 31 points we''ll stay up? Funniest thing I ''ve heard since I got an email today offering 25 % of ITFC benchware.  

 

38 will do . Nowt less. Everyone is going to beat everyone else this year.

[Bill 1,788]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Making Plans"]The bad news - they have us finishing with 31ptsThe good news - they have us finishing in 17thThe 3 to go down18th Palace 30pts19th Sunderland 30pts20th West Ham 29pts

NORWICH (Norwich result first)

Jan 11: Everton (a) 0-1Jan 18: Hull City (h) 1-1Jan 28: Newcastle United (h) 2-2Feb 1: Cardiff City (a) 1-2Feb 8: Manchester City (h) 1-1Feb 12: West Ham United (a) 1-2Feb 22: Tottenham Hotspur (h) 1-3Mar 1: Aston Villa (a) 0-0Mar 8: Stoke City (h) 1-0Mar 15: Southampton (a) 0-2Mar 22: Sunderland (h) 2-1Mar 29: Swansea City (a) 1-2Apr 5: West Bromwich Albion (h) 1-1Apr 12: Fulham (a) 0-2Apr 19: Liverpool (h) 0-4Apr 26: Manchester United (a) 0-2May 3: Chelsea (a) 1-4May 11: Arsenal (h) 1-3POINTS: 31POSITION: 17thVERDICT:

Chris Hughton''s side have the most daunting run-in of all those

scrapping it out at the bottom and, despite losing the final five

matches, they scrape home.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2536382/West-Ham-Sunderland-Fulham-Sportsmails-Premier-League-relegation-predictions.html

[/quote]I had to laugh, someone should keep this until the season ends.It is total nonsense, the biggest load of bull I''ve seen in ages.[/quote]somewhere away from those relegation mini leagues which seem to have got lost

ps I''m sure it will be one of these threads that get resurrected quite frequently

[Essex_Canary 6]

Ignoring the fact that it''s the Mail, looking at our remaining fixtures it''s blindingly obvious that we are in trouble. Not because of the points we''ve currently got or how close we are to mid-table but because of our complete inability to pick up three points from ''winnable'' home games in the first half of the season. Failure to beat Villa, Cardiff, Swansea & Fulham and to only win three from 10 home games means that we are now likely to have to win at least 4 of a last 9 than includes Spurs, Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool and to actually start trying to win away games rather than being ''thrilled with a good point'' against teams we should be capable of beating! It may not take 40 points to stay up this year which is a bloody good job because I genuinely think we will struggle to get there and whatever happens anything less than 4 wins from Hull, Stoke, Sunderland and West Brom, given the lack of home wins up til now will cause us massive problems!

My ever-so-slightly optimistic predictions:

Jan 11: Everton (a) L (20 pts)

Jan 18: Hull City (h) W (23 pts)

Jan 28: Newcastle United (h) D (24 pts)

Feb 1: Cardiff City (a) D (25 pts)

Feb 8: Manchester City (h) L (25 pts)

Feb 12: West Ham United (a) W (28 pts)

Feb 22: Tottenham Hotspur (h) D (29 pts)

Mar 1: Aston Villa (a) D (30 pts)

Mar 8: Stoke City (h) W (33 pts)

Mar 15: Southampton (a) L (33 pts)

Mar 22: Sunderland (h) W (36 pts)

Mar 29: Swansea City (a) L (36 pts)

Apr 5: West Bromwich Albion (h) W (39 pts)

Apr 12: Fulham (a) D (40 pts)

Apr 19: Liverpool (h) L (40 pts)

Apr 26: Manchester United (a) L (40 pts)

May 3: Chelsea (a) L (40 pts)

May 11: Arsenal (h) L (40 pts)

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

[quote user="can u sit down please"]Although I think that te final points tally is crazy? When you look at the results, they do look possibilities...[/quote]Certainly cusdp. On current form, you''d say that if transferred forwards, those run of results are not only likely, but a distinct possibility.But, I guess even the most hard bitten of us Hughton sceptics would like to think that at some stage this season we''ll find a reasonable run of form.Because, if we don''t, and continue in the same vein as recently, then we are doomed.

[Tumbleweed 106]

I agree those individual results from the DM do look quite reasonable. Probably the only ones you could really take issue with are Hull and WBA at home, but even then our failure to win similar games mean they are not stupidly off. Win both those and we still only get to 35.

The past two seasons we have stayed up I think (I haven''t done any analysis) largely because of a good record against teams around us. That has not happened so much this time so the gap between the bottom and us is much closer. We don''t look like getting the unexpected bonus results either like we did last season against Man City, Arse and Man U. Remove those 9 points and we''d have been pretty close last time.

The main things in our favour are:

1. West Ham look to be in total disarray

2. WBA have taken a massive gamble, Pochettino at Saints worked but this may not

3. Sunderland still look poor despite Di Canio leaving and Poyet is unpredictable

4. Palace will benefit from Pulis but don''t have anywhere near as good a first team on paper as ours

5. Cardiff- well who on earth knows. One FA Cup result does not mean they''ll suddenly accelerate away. And with Tan in charge anything can happen at any time.

With that lot going on it would be an abject, dismal and disastrous failure by both CH and the Board collectively if we cannot elevate ourselves to safety.

[ricardo 7,400]

[quote user="can u sit down please"]Although I think that te final points tally is crazy? When you look at the results, they do look possibilities...[/quote]Whilst anything is possible it would take a complete collapse in form to only get 11 points from our remaining games. This is not going to happen, its much worse form than Sunderland and West Ham achieved in the first half of the season.We will not do worse than 36 points minimum.

[Shaun Tilly Lace 0]

[quote user="Buh"]What the hell is DM?[/quote]

I think it stands for Dim-witted Musings.

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]Whilst anything is possible it would take a complete collapse in form to only get 11 points from our remaining games. [/quote]Hmm, Ricardo....3 pts from the last 15 on offer, and all but one of the games v teams in our area of the league.Not that big a collapse ?

[Making Plans 940]

[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"]3 pts from the last 15 on offer, and all but one of the games v teams in our area of the league. Not that big a collapse ?[/quote]If that sort of return continues for the next 18 games at the same rate we''d get another 11 points between now & the end of the season. But not to worry, things are getting better & we''re improving. Aren''t we?

[Warren Hill 0]

[quote user="Making Plans"][quote user="Reggie Strayshun"]3 pts from the last 15 on offer, and all but one of the games v teams in our area of the league. Not that big a collapse ?[/quote]

If that sort of return continues for the next 18 games at the same rate we''d get another 11 points between now & the end of the season.
But not to worry, things are getting better & we''re improving. Aren''t we?
[/quote]

 

I hadn''t noticed that.

 

Worrying isn''t it?

 

If you only look at our last 3 league games, we have 1 point and 67% of those games were against teams in our area of the league, carry that on for the next 18 games and we''ll only get 6 more points...

 

I bet NOBODY has ever survived on 26 points.

 

 

[PurpleCanary 5,580]

Brave to try to predict individual reults. I prefer looking at blocks of games. On the face of it we have five winnable homes games - Hull, Newcastle, Stoke, Sunderland and WBA - and five ditto away - Cardiff, West Ham, Aston Villa, Swansea and Fulham.From those 10 we ought to win at least four. In the first 20 games we won five (25 per cent) so four out of 18 (22 per cent) should be feasible. With the recent injuries clearing up and the transfer window open the squad over those 18 games should be stronger than for the first 20, and at least as strong as the squads of relegation rivals for the run-in.Throw in an extra win or a whole raft of draws or even a freak victory in one of the unwinnable games (Man City, Spurs, Liverpool, Arsenal, Everton, Southampton, Man Utd and Chelsea) and a few draws and we reach 38 points. Which is exactly our current points per game.Against that our points per game has gradually declined. If there is a continued failure to get the best out of the squad (this seems to be the view of inners and outers) and we win only four of the last 18 then a finish on 36 points hoves into view. That might well still save us, but frankly should not.

[CambridgeCanary 0]

I that you will find that if football results can be predicted with the accuracy that the Mail and some posters assert then, the point would have disappeared long ago.

This Club has always lost games that it ought to have won and won games that seemed unwinnable. I didn''t see any predictions last season that we would beat both Manchester clubs and Arsenal but it happened.

You can look at averages and likelihoods but you cannot predict scores.

We will be stronger in the later stages of the season because we will have players back whom we have missed and the new players will be more settled at the club and in this league.

[nutty nigel 7,614]

I guess that''s the fun of making predictions. But I don''t see any fun in continually predicting the worst for us and assuming all the other teams will improve to seal our relegation fate. 

 

 

 

 

[morty 0]

Lol, NN, how apt for here!

[Warren Hill 0]

Well, I''ve managed to select a recent portion of games (last 3 - including 2 against relegation rivals) with which to predict the future that only has us finishing on 26 points.

 

Can anybody produce a realistic model on which to base future results that produces a lower points total?

 

*Just saying that we''re * and therefore will lose every week doesn''t count - (you know who you are...)

 

 

[Yorkshire Canary 118]

All the relegation threatened clubs tend to lose games they should on paper get something from and get unexpected points from games they are expected to lose. I am still waiting for us to get some many of these unexpected points unless you count Stoke and WBA away. A couple of wins from anywhere can transform the table for any club including ourselves, the next 6 to 8 weeks will cement our fate one way or the other. I think we will need 34 to 36 points to stay up this season, looks a long way off at the moment but not if we put even a little winning run together

[......and Smith must score. 1,360]

[quote user="CambridgeCanary"]We will be stronger in the later stages of the season because we will have players back whom we have missed and the new players will be more settled at the club and in this league.[/quote]Why does everyone assume we can only get stronger ?Yes, we may have players back from injury but there''s no telling how many currently fit players will end up on the treatment table. No one expected Michael Turner to pick up another injury as soon as last week but he did.True, any new players we sign will be more settled as the season progresses but there''s also the distinct possibility that we could be weakened by transfers out before then. There can''t be too many on here who think that Wes Hoolahan will still be a City player come February and there may well be one or two surprise exits as well.Personally I think we''ll somehow cobble together enough points for another season in this League but it ''aint gonna be pretty getting ''em.

[ron obvious 1,514]

Well, I for one think Wes is here for the duration. I doubt anyone else is going either.

The only reason would be if we got superior players in - in which case our chances would improve.

The McNally doth not lie.

[Making Plans 940]

[quote user="ron obvious"]Well, I for one think Wes is here for the duration.[/quote]Well, having read Hughton''s comments in The Pink ''Un, it''s hardly a glowing vote of confidence in the player nor does it would appear to  give any confidence in his long term future at the Club.“Wes is here, he is training and he is fit so he is very much in my thoughts for Everton, The correct way for us is that they remain private conversations

between the clubs. When there is, at any stage, anything to say about

anybody, whether that is our player or not, we will make the

announcement at the appropriate time.Wes is a player who first and foremost is under contract. Apart from

the recent cup game he had played in the last two games. He is as

important as every other player in this squad. What we are trying to

achieve here is build the best squad we can to get us as high up the

league as we can and to do that we know to keep hold of our good players

and Wes is very much part of the squad at the moment.”Players under contract must know their responsibility is with their club. If that changes we will make you aware of that.”

[Bill 1,788]

[quote user="CambridgeCanary"]I that you will find that if football results can be predicted with the accuracy that the Mail and some posters assert then, the point would have disappeared long ago.

This Club has always lost games that it ought to have won and won games that seemed unwinnable. I didn''t see any predictions last season that we would beat both Manchester clubs and Arsenal but it happened.

You can look at averages and likelihoods but you cannot predict scores.

We will be stronger in the later stages of the season because we will have players back whom we have missed and the new players will be more settled at the club and in this league.[/quote]I am not certain how you think that worksWe have no guarantee that there will be no further injuries, perhaps to real key playersThe new players settling is a myth. The players you are talking about will have been here for nearly a season ..... and are still not settled !The real stumbling block is how these players and the team are being managed, or mismanaged in this case.What might also be another factor is who might leave the club. and given Hughton''s incompetence and weakness there may be those who see their future elsewhere. The first cracks in the club''s previous solid front of retaining it''s players.

[lowlyfendweller 0]

In reference to the predictions in the original post..... Poppycock!

[morty 0]

[quote user="Making Plans"][quote user="ron obvious"]Well, I for one think Wes is here for the duration.[/quote]Well, having read Hughton''s comments in The Pink ''Un, it''s hardly a glowing vote of confidence in the player nor does it would appear to  give any confidence in his long term future at the Club.“Wes is here, he is training and he is fit so he is very much in my thoughts for Everton, The correct way for us is that they remain private conversations

between the clubs. When there is, at any stage, anything to say about

anybody, whether that is our player or not, we will make the

announcement at the appropriate time.Wes is a player who first and foremost is under contract. Apart from

the recent cup game he had played in the last two games. He is as

important as every other player in this squad. What we are trying to

achieve here is build the best squad we can to get us as high up the

league as we can and to do that we know to keep hold of our good players

and Wes is very much part of the squad at the moment.”Players under contract must know their responsibility is with their club. If that changes we will make you aware of that.”[/quote]

Sorry but how do you draw a negative from that, it seems pretty accurate and to the point. He is saying it exactly how it is. He isnt going to promise wes that he''ll start every game, is he? No player in a squad has the God given right to start every game.