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Hannibal II

13 Points

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That is how many we have taken since December the 15th when we beat Wigan. Take away the tactics, the manager and his personality is this good enough for half a season?

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25 points over half a season is not bad for a second season in the Premier League for a Club with second lowest wages bill and now clear from debt. Thanks for the head up on that.

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I feel a bit like Tilly trying to explain about Vaughan yet again but here goes:

The 10 match run was a statistical anomaly. We were never that good. Statisticians use a concept called reversion to mean. The mean is your normal performance place in things and the concept says that if you perform significantly above or below your norm then you will compensate to go back to your norm. That is why the leader of the first round rarely wins a golf major. An exceptional round is followed by an ordinary or a poor one and form settles over four rounds.

We are not a ten match unbeaten team any more than we are a two wins in eighteen match team. We are a 38 points from 35 matches team. Don''t let the fact that the good and poor runs were clumped together rather than having the good results scattered through the season. It is a mirage. Look at the total performance and ask if that is good enough.

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So by your own argument, if we finish 17th or above this season, our form has averaged to "good enough" to stay in this league? Or are you saying that our previous season under Lambert was just an anomaly, and that we are now having our "ordinary" round?

This is the point about statistics, they are not a proof - they are a modelling tool. If you are already predisposed to a certain outcome then it is quite likely you can fine-tune things, or find a method that suits the point you want to make.

Moving away from baseless statistical hand-waving, it is quite clear we have been poor for a lot of this season, but if we stay up it is on merit. Considering our rapid rise and tight budgets, we have had little time and opportunity to build a squad with enough genuine quality to establish ourselves in this division, so it is understandable that we have plateaued. Our previous manager was obviously aware that this was a real possibility this season, so jumped ship at the first opportunity.

The time to judge Hughton will be next season, once he has had a chance to recruit more of the players that he thinks have the relevant quality.

This season was always about steadying the ship and trying to stay in the division, so for the time being 14th place at the end of the season would certainly be "good enough" in my opinion, and I suspect the eyes of those who understand that instant success is something that rarely occurs in football and is extremely difficult to sustain.

The football has been appalling at times this season, but unfortunately the ends justify the means at this stage of development at the club. I don''t particularly like it, but fingers crossed we have enough to steer clear of danger and can start to improve the depth and quality of the squad in the summer.

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All very good questions IS. I was replying to the 18 match point as I thought I made clear. The season should be discussed as a whole as you have done.

There is an argument that we were playing and getting results above our ability for much of last season and that now there is an evening out. Isn''t that what the whole concept of second season syndrome is all about? Certainly you can see that working with Newcastle for example.

I don''t particularly argue that but I have argued repeatedly that much of the angst on this board would have been avoided if results had come randomly and not in clusters.

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It just goes to show that you can manipulate statistics any way you want, to try and back up whatever point you are trying to make.Its frankly lame.

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[quote user="morty"]It just goes to show that you can manipulate statistics any way you want, to try and back up whatever point you are trying to make.Its frankly lame.[/quote]

Meaning?

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[quote user="CambridgeCanary"]I feel a bit like Tilly trying to explain about Vaughan yet again but here goes:

The 10 match run was a statistical anomaly. We were never that good. Statisticians use a concept called reversion to mean. The mean is your normal performance place in things and the concept says that if you perform significantly above or below your norm then you will compensate to go back to your norm. That is why the leader of the first round rarely wins a golf major. An exceptional round is followed by an ordinary or a poor one and form settles over four rounds.

We are not a ten match unbeaten team any more than we are a two wins in eighteen match team. We are a 38 points from 35 matches team. Don''t let the fact that the good and poor runs were clumped together rather than having the good results scattered through the season. It is a mirage. Look at the total performance and ask if that is good enough.[/quote]I think this is a key point that gets lost this season- if we had amassed this amount of points but spread out more then I believe less people would be questioning Hughton''s ability. However on the other hand we have to hope the Hughton can use the summer as a clean slate and hit the ground running. You only have to look at Hull City and Bolton to see recent examples of teams that have finished a season poorly, stayed up but been unable to get out of the slump in the next season.

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[quote user="CambridgeCanary"][quote user="morty"]It just goes to show that you can manipulate statistics any way you want, to try and back up whatever point you are trying to make.Its frankly lame.[/quote]

Meaning?[/quote]Meaning depending on which way you are setting your stall out, either positively or negatively, you can find stats that suit, whichever point you are trying to make.I could probably dig out how many clean sheets we have kept, our home record this season or tackles made by a particular player if I wanted to put a particular spin on things.The fact is we are where we are, stats are for anoraks. And for people that don''t really understand the game, to help them make sense of it all with some simple numbers.

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With 2 less relegation slots available now, we are 66% less likely to be relegated than we were ten minutes ago.[:)]

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We''re doing ENOUGH to stay up, and that''s all that matters this year.

If we''re in this position again next year then we can really complain.

Look back at the past 5 years, in terms of the sheer luck and positivity we''ve had recently, I''d totally take a mediocre season if it means we stay in the best league we can be in

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Oh ans two teams who were relegated wear hoops, so because we don''t, statistically that makes us safe.Celtic will clearly be relegated.

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[quote user="morty"]Meaning depending on which way you are setting your stall out, either positively or negatively, you can find stats that suit, whichever point you are trying to make.I could probably dig out how many clean sheets we have kept, our home record this season or tackles made by a particular player if I wanted to put a particular spin on things.The fact is we are where we are, stats are for anoraks. And for people that don''t really understand the game, to help them make sense of it all with some simple numbers.[/quote]Funny how its always people with no education in statistical methods that say things like this.If asked, how would you define the fact that "we are where we are"?

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[quote user="Hannibal II"]That is how many we have taken since December the 15th when we beat Wigan. Take away the tactics, the manager and his personality is this good enough for half a season?[/quote]If you look at the games we''ve lost this season, we''ve taken no points at all from any of them. That''s not good enough either.

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[quote user="Dandy Mountfarto"][quote user="morty"]Meaning depending on which way you are setting your stall out, either positively or negatively, you can find stats that suit, whichever point you are trying to make.I could probably dig out how many clean sheets we have kept, our home record this season or tackles made by a particular player if I wanted to put a particular spin on things.The fact is we are where we are, stats are for anoraks. And for people that don''t really understand the game, to help them make sense of it all with some simple numbers.[/quote]Funny how its always people with no education in statistical methods that say things like this.If asked, how would you define the fact that "we are where we are"?[/quote]Your post makes no sense whatsoever.Have a nice day.

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[quote user="morty"]Your post makes no sense whatsoever.Have a nice day.[/quote]What does "we are where we are" mean? and why is that "fact" (not really a fact, more of a tautology), somehow more meaningful than "simple numbers"?

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[quote user="Dandy Mountfarto"][quote user="morty"]Your post makes no sense whatsoever.Have a nice day.[/quote]What does "we are where we are" mean? and why is that "fact" (not really a fact, more of a tautology), somehow more meaningful than "simple numbers"?[/quote]See my last post[Y]

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[quote user="morty"]With 2 less relegation slots available now, we are 66% less likely to be relegated than we were ten minutes ago.

[:)]
[/quote]

 

You just got through chastising others as lame anoraks for making any numbers work to support a particular point of view. You follow that with this lame piece of input which suggests you know nothing about probabilty distribution. Smarten up.

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[quote user="YankeeCanary"]

[quote user="morty"]With 2 less relegation slots available now, we are 66% less likely to be relegated than we were ten minutes ago.[:)][/quote]

 

You just got through chastising others as lame anoraks for making any numbers work to support a particular point of view. You follow that with this lame piece of input which suggests you know nothing about probabilty distribution. Smarten up.

[/quote]Obvious sarcasm obviously isn''t that obvious.

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[quote user="Hannibal II"]That is how many we have taken since December the 15th when we beat Wigan. Take away the tactics, the manager and his personality is this good enough for half a season?[/quote]

Since that date Villa have taken 16 points and Wigan 17 points.Therefore it has taken them 5 months to pull back 3 and 4 points respectively.They still sit 4 and 6 points behind.Its not impossible for both to come past us in the remaining few fixtures but it still remains improbable IMO.

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New poster. I have memories of standing in short trousers at White Hart Lane, twice, during the Cup Run. (Possibly, so did you Ricardo). I am still a season ticket holder, but am very disappointed by performances since January.

On a typical Saturday, 6/7 of the team are Hughton''s signings, so I am not sure that he has had to struggle all the time with last year''s players. There was money to be spent in January, but wasn''t.

I wonder if I am the only one who is a bit confused by recent statements from Chris. He stated that Pilkington was fit for Arsenal, but was being held back for the last 5 games. In last week''s Daily Mail, he said that the man who would keep us up was Wes. Why aren''t they playing then?

Maybe the players are also getting confused.

I naturally want us to stay up, but I''m not sure yet that we will, especially as you have to score to win, as far as I know.

Oh for a Jimmy Neighbour or Darren Huckerby!

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morty wrote the following post at 2013-04-28 6:19 PM:

It just goes to show that you can manipulate statistics any way you want, to try and back up whatever point you are trying to make.

Its frankly lame.

Oh I see it now, so actually under Hughton we haven''t only won two games since December, and in fact we haven''t had any games during this period where we haven''t had a shot on goal? Oh, and Roeder wasn''t sacked because he only won three games from fourteen! Amazing you can manipulate stats to say whatever you want! Hahahahaha!

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[quote user="City 2nd"]morty wrote the following post at 2013-04-28 6:19 PM:

It just goes to show that you can manipulate statistics any way you want, to try and back up whatever point you are trying to make.

Its frankly lame.

Oh I see it now, so actually under Hughton we haven''t only won two games since December, and in fact we haven''t had any games during this period where we haven''t had a shot on goal? Oh, and Roeder wasn''t sacked because he only won three games from fourteen! Amazing you can manipulate stats to say whatever you want! Hahahahaha![/quote]Statistically 72% of people on football forums are total bell-ends.Theres a stat for you.[:)]

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morty wrote the following post at 2013-04-28 9:16 PM:

City 2nd wrote:

morty wrote the following post at 2013-04-28 6:19 PM: It just goes to show that you can manipulate statistics any way you want, to try and back up whatever point you are trying to make. Its frankly lame. Oh I see it now, so actually under Hughton we haven''t only won two games since December, and in fact we haven''t had any games during this period where we haven''t had a shot on goal? Oh, and Roeder wasn''t sacked because he only won three games from fourteen! Amazing you can manipulate stats to say whatever you want! Hahahahaha!

Statistically 72% of people on football forums are total bell-ends.

Theres a stat for you.

As you said my intelligent friend - you can make statistics say whatever you want! Hahahahaha you are so right.

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Here''s a stat for you all. We have 4 points more than Villa and a 6 better GD.

 

You wouldn''t think so reading this board. But I will concede that if you ignore all the games we won and all the games Villa lost it would make very bleak reading...

 

 

 

 

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[quote user="The Old Boy"]New poster. I have memories of standing in short trousers at White Hart Lane, twice, during the Cup Run. (Possibly, so did you Ricardo). I am still a season ticket holder, but am very disappointed by performances since January.

On a typical Saturday, 6/7 of the team are Hughton''s signings, so I am not sure that he has had to struggle all the time with last year''s players. There was money to be spent in January, but wasn''t.

I wonder if I am the only one who is a bit confused by recent statements from Chris. He stated that Pilkington was fit for Arsenal, but was being held back for the last 5 games. In last week''s Daily Mail, he said that the man who would keep us up was Wes. Why aren''t they playing then?

Maybe the players are also getting confused.

I naturally want us to stay up, but I''m not sure yet that we will, especially as you have to score to win, as far as I know.

Oh for a Jimmy Neighbour or Darren Huckerby![/quote]

That makes two of us OB, except I was already in long trousers.I expect both Pilks and Wes will feature in the remaining home games. One of my much quoted remarks is "No Wes, no points".[;)]

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