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crabbycanary

Newcastle - a shining light

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West Ham away and QPR away are quite comfortable away games, at least as comfortable as they could hope for. No, relying on Newcastle to slip up is asking for trouble. And as has been mentioned, we might as well be thinking along the lines of our goal difference taking a -6 hit.

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You forget that we are sat in 14th place and it is the likes of Villa and Newcastle who need to rely on us to slip up rather than the other way round!

The mindset of some of our supporters really does seem to be that it is us in the bottom three and reliant on others. We aren''t, on both counts. That is not to say we are safe, or shouldn''t be concerned, but our safety fully lies in our own hands and as things stand we need no favours from others, welcome though they might be.

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[quote user="king canary"]Interesting now that apart from Sunderland we have a better goal difference than every team below us. [/quote]

And more points, and certainly no more difficult fixtures than Newcastle, Villa or Wigan.

Life''s great again

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[quote user="king canary"]Interesting now that apart from Sunderland we have a better goal difference than every team below us. [/quote]
But not by much , they need to win & us lose so the swing would probably put us behind them all.

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[quote user="Stig"]West Ham away and QPR away are quite comfortable away games, at least as comfortable as they could hope for. No, relying on Newcastle to slip up is asking for trouble. And as has been mentioned, we might as well be thinking along the lines of our goal difference taking a -6 hit.[/quote]

I can''t see Big Sam wanting to relegate his old club, can you ?   [:D]

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Newcastle have won 1 game away all season. Their two ''easier'' fixtures remaining are away. We have good home form, and have lost just 3 games. Our two ''easier fixtures are at home. That would suggest that we will do better in our ''easier'' games than Newcastle.

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West Ham away a comfortable game? Lol. I fancy West Ham to do them tbh. They have been decent in the last few games and Big Sam will definitely be looking to finish strongly. The next round of games are huge. Things will change week by week now. It''d be great to see Newcastle lose and to see Villa lose tonight against Sunderland (or even draw). Either way, we need another point at the very least I reckon. Gutted that the ref f***** us against the Arse, but it''s all in our hands. 4-6pts clear at this stage is huge with 4 games left (Wigan/Villa). Tonight''s result between Sunderland and Villa could either tighten things right up again or put a little bit more breathing space between us and Wigan/Villa

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[quote user=York Canary]West Ham away a comfortable game? Lol. I fancy West Ham to do them tbh. They have been decent in the last few games and Big Sam will definitely be looking to finish strongly. The next round of games are huge. Things will change week by week now. It''d be great to see Newcastle lose and to see Villa lose tonight against Sunderland (or even draw). Either way, we need another point at the very least I reckon. Gutted that the ref f***** us against the Arse, but it''s all in our hands. 4-6pts clear at this stage is huge with 4 games left (Wigan/Villa). Tonight''s result

 

Rather than the penalty miss against Southampton when the ref gifted us an opportunity. - we just can''t keep relying on others!

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Stig wrote :

West Ham away and QPR away are quite comfortable away games, at least as comfortable as they could hope for. No, relying on Newcastle to slip up is asking for trouble. And as has been mentioned, we might as well be thinking along the lines of our goal difference taking a -6 hit.

But the point is we'' not "relying" on Newcastle slipping up. It''s just another increase in probability of a team below us getting relegated.

If you multiply all those probabilities together, the chances of relegation for A N Other team increase - & therefore ours decrease. That''s one of the reasons why our relegation odds have gone from 12-1 a couple of weeks ago to 20-1 now - even though we lost.

We can still get relegated, obviously. But the chances are receding.

Tonight will be interesting!

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For me, the key is still Wigan. They have to play 5 games in 15 days, including the FA Cup Final. With WBA(a), Swansea(h), Arsenal(a) and Villa(h) they are really up against it. They could win the home games, but that would only give them 38 points. A bad result at WBA and it looks very bleak for them.

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I was saying a few weeks ago that Newcastle were slipping into it.  It was the same time as Joanna was pointing at Stoke.

 

It''s been pointed out to Stig that his dismissive response is presumptous.  West Ham are never easy at home and sooner or later, QPR will recover some pride and stick someone.

 

It is quite easy to see Newcastle losing their last three games.  Not just because of the oppposition but more importatntly because they are a demoralised shambles exhausted by their Europa experience.  Portuguese journalists for the Porto game were astounded at how Newcastle faded in the second half and how shambolic their defence became.   They are shot.  

 

I add that Wigan will be the beneficiaries not us.

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