dpit 1 Posted March 26, 2012 Fancy they could be dragged down into the mix. Don''t like the look of their run in and some of the 5 below them have momentum. There would be something fun about being involved in a survival sunday as a bit player. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dpit 1 Posted March 26, 2012 Villa run in:Chelsea (h) Liverpool (a)Stoke (h)Man U (a)Sunderland (h)West Brom (a)Tottenham (h)us (a)Cant see them getting more than 4 points before they come to CR. Haven''t liked them since they beat us in the League Cup Final...would love to send them off with our regards to Ipswich on a sunny, relaxed day at Carrow Road. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted March 26, 2012 We''ll have our eyes focussed on 7th place - it will matter little who we need to beat on the day Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phyxius 0 Posted March 26, 2012 8 points clear with a game in hand. It''s unlikely they''ll be dragged into the mix. What''s our last game of the season form like? Can''t remember the last time we won. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dpit 1 Posted March 26, 2012 Yep, 8 points clear but I can see Blackburn, Bolton and Wigan kicking on and Villa struggling badly thereby bridging the gap, so that by the time the final sunday comes they will still need at least a point to guarantee survival. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dpit 1 Posted March 26, 2012 To extrapolate further, I think QPR and Wolves will get cut adrift, while Wigan, Bolton and Blackburn use their nous to put together decent runs. Confidence is low at Villa, the crowd are on their backs...I think they could really struggle. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dpit 1 Posted March 26, 2012 We also want to send them down so that when McLeish gets sacked at the end of the season, Lambert won''t even consider saying yes when they come knocking on his door (whereas he might if they are still a Prem club) - and he will get the sack whether they survive or not. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Syteanric 1 Posted March 26, 2012 not convinced by McLeish as a manager, especially after he took Birmingham down last season....has had a bit of money to spend on Villa and failed to get anything out of a decent side.if i were a villa fan i''d feel a little bit uneasy right now Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ROBFLECK 132 Posted March 26, 2012 [quote user="jas the barclay king"]not convinced by McLeish as a manager, especially after he took Birmingham down last season....has had a bit of money to spend on Villa and failed to get anything out of a decent side.if i were a villa fan i''d feel a little bit uneasy right now[/quote]Same feeling here Jas, what were they thinking of when they appointed him? It would''ve been a horror show for the fans too at Carra Rud...should George Burley have come in wouldn''t it ;) But I don''t think they are going to be sucked into it...couple of very good players in their team... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
William Darby 0 Posted March 26, 2012 It''ll be close but I think they''ll be okay. Next season could be a problem if they don''t get it sorted out. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RvWs 4 year contract 0 Posted March 26, 2012 No chance. They are on 33 points ATM and I think 35 will be enough.The bottom 3 will not get to 35 points. They are awful. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
canarydan23 4,177 Posted March 26, 2012 Wasn''t Villa at Carrow Road our last game on the 94-95 Premier League season? They secured a point to guarantee safety but we were already down? I was only a proper young-un at the time, but I seem to recollect it. There was a massive Chase Out campaign and one Villa fan had bought his own little "Ellis Out" poster. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thenorthstand 0 Posted March 26, 2012 Think Bolton will pick up along with Wigan and Blackburn already are. 35 points might not be enough, 33 certainly isn''t - Looking at those fixtures you may well have a point. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
star_manic 0 Posted March 26, 2012 i will be very suprised if the the team finishing 18th this season end up on more than 35 points, so villa, theoretically, need only three more points from their last eight games. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,843 Posted March 26, 2012 [quote user="canarydan23"]Wasn''t Villa at Carrow Road our last game on the 94-95 Premier League season? They secured a point to guarantee safety but we were already down? I was only a proper young-un at the time, but I seem to recollect it. There was a massive Chase Out campaign and one Villa fan had bought his own little "Ellis Out" poster.[/quote]You''re quite correct here. We had already been relegated the week before at Leeds but Villa still had a slight chance of relegation, which would have required them losing to us and at least two results elsewhere going against them (which didnt happen).At the end of the game the Villa fans were singing "we''ll meet again" at us, which is something I''ve remembered ever since and have always hoped that karma would one day allow us to return that favour?!?I also recollect being involved in the "Chase out" demos afterwards , with police horses charging at us outside the main stand and police being let loose in the River end car park.............they were the days !?! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted March 26, 2012 the odds are massively stacked aginst themsimply on the basis of much of the previous seasons - even last seasons freak results, stayed with the trendalthough the not too bright keep shrieking about this mythical 40 point mark, they always conveniently overlook that last season the bottom three were 5/6 points ahead of what they were this season at mid point. 16West Bromwich Albion308913415656424253391731-153317West Ham United3071112364954620212761628-133218Wolverhampton Wndrs3095163549735242222111127-143219Birmingham City2961310284147414182661423-133120Wigan Athletic3061212295146618312661120-2230way ahead of what they are at the momenthowever pick a more comparable table - 2009/1016Wolverhampton Wndrs307716254943810203481529-242817West Ham United3069153751545242215101329-142718Burnley3166193164654201701151147-332419Hull City3059162964554192204121042-352420Portsmouth306420285342920242211829-2513and the season finishes16Wigan Athletic3899203779676192432141855-423617West Ham United38811194766757302916121737-193518Burnley3886244282757253011171752-403019Hull City38612203475667222906131246-413020Portsmouth38772434665311243224131034-3219it is highly unlikely that three of the bottom teams will reach 35 points and Villa only pick up one more point Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dpit 1 Posted March 26, 2012 I''m obviously as distracted as you, City 1st. Here''s how it could happen with some perfectly feasible resultsVilla:Chelsea LLiverpool DStoke DSunderland LW Brom DTottenham LNorwich LFinal Total: 36Bolton:Tottenham LWolves WFulham WNewcastle LSwansea WSunderland LW Brom WStoke DVilla WFinal Total: 42Wigan:Stoke DChelsea DMan U LArsenal LFulham WNewcastle DBlackburn WWolves WFinal Total: 37Blackburn:Man U LW Brom WLiverpool DSwansea DNorwich W (I know!)Tottenham LWigan LChelsea DFinal Total: 36 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dpit 1 Posted March 26, 2012 My point is that not only do Bolton and Wigan have some wind in their sails but also some realistic point winning games. Villa are on a downward slide and have some tough fixtures. Blackburn are doing Ok but have a tough run in. So for me, its QPR (very difficult set of games) and Wolves (crap) to occupy the bottom slots and Villa and Blackburn to vie to avoid the other slot, with a 2-3 goal margin victory for us on the final day sending Villa down by 1 goal on GD! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted March 26, 2012 I shan''t speculate, no need as past seasons have proved uncannily accurate............. which suggest your totals are way, way off target Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dpit 1 Posted March 26, 2012 Past seasons have proved uncannily accurate as what? I presume you mean as predictors. Meaning that you have picked one season and suggest that the same will happen again. I prefer to look at the present situation and make projections based on current form and upcoming fixtures. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted March 26, 2012 "Meaning that you have picked one season"err, no the clue is in the beginning of your post ie ''Past seasons'' Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
canary_bird 0 Posted March 26, 2012 Wasn''t Villa at Carrow Road our last game on the 94-95 Premier League season? They secured a point to guarantee safety but we were already down? I was only a proper young-un at the time, but I seem to recollect it. There was a massive Chase Out campaign and one Villa fan had bought his own little "Ellis Out" poster.You''re quite correct here. We had already been relegated the week before at Leeds but Villa still had a slight chance of relegation, which would have required them losing to us and at least two results elsewhere going against them (which didnt happen).At the end of the game the Villa fans were singing "we''ll meet again" at us, which is something I''ve remembered ever since and have always hoped that karma would one day allow us to return that favour?!?I also recollect being involved in the "Chase out" demos afterwards , with police horses charging at us outside the main stand and police being let loose in the River end car park.............they were the days !?!Yes, what a fun time it was ...??!I remember the Villa fans singing "We''re Cr*p and we''re staying up" and "Going down with the souffle", which did make me smile (through the tears). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pyro Pete 2,007 Posted March 26, 2012 Firstly, what a luxury to be able to speculate on who will go down knowing we are all but safe!As for Villa''s demise, it''s possible but highly unlikely. The coming fixtures suggest Wolves and QPR are pretty much done for. Leaving one other to join them. I''d say Blackburn. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,462 Posted March 26, 2012 [quote user="City1st"]"Meaning that you have picked one season"err, no the clue is in the beginning of your post ie ''Past seasons''[/quote]There''s something wrong with your points totals for Portsmouth City 1st.6 wins and 4 draws should be 22 points7 wins and 7 draws is 28 points Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lake district canary 0 Posted March 26, 2012 Personally think that any of the bottom clubs (Wolves excepted) are capable of putting a run together and pulling clear, which it is why it was so important for us to get well clear by this stage. Any club in range - including Villa - who have a bad run will run the risk of being caught up in the final week or two of the season. Would be a fascinating scenario if it happens. Norwich needing to win to get seventh place, Villa needing to win to stay up. The season''s not over yet!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted March 26, 2012 They were deducted 9 points on 17th March that year for going into administrationSo yes, the points total can be read as you state (though technically not)If you look at the halfway stage that season you had, (red numbers are final place point totals, not teams) -16Wigan Athletic18 54919 3617West Ham United19 46918 3518Bolton Wanderers1745817 3019Hull City19451017 3020Portsmouth19 421314 28so there is a reasonable correlation between the points at halfway and at the finish of the season, this has been pretty much the case through the past seasons Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
William Darby 0 Posted March 26, 2012 Just give up City1st. The government wasn''t far off the mark when they claimed the country''s maths skills were s**t. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mister Chops 7 Posted March 26, 2012 Quite possibly we will, and that would be awesome. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Branston Pickle 3,775 Posted March 26, 2012 It would add some nice spice to the last game if Villa needed something from it, but I can''t really see it. Chances are they only need 2-3 pts to be safe. Any one or perhaps two of the guys at the bottom might overhaul them, but surely not 3 of them. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,462 Posted March 26, 2012 [quote user="City1st"]They were deducted 9 points on 17th March that year for going into administrationSo yes, the points total can be read as you state (though technically not)If you look at the halfway stage that season you had, (red numbers are final place point totals, not teams) -16Wigan Athletic18 54919 3617West Ham United19 46918 3518Bolton Wanderers1745817 3019Hull City19451017 3020Portsmouth19 421314 28so there is a reasonable correlation between the points at halfway and at the finish of the season, this has been pretty much the case through the past seasons[/quote]Thanks for that C1. I had forgotten about the points deduction. Profuse apologies. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites