Will we send Villa down on the last day of the season?

[dpit 1]

Fancy they could be dragged down into the mix. Don''t like the look of their run in and some of the 5 below them have momentum. There would be something fun about being involved in a survival sunday as a bit player.

[dpit 1]

Villa run in:

Chelsea (h)

Liverpool (a)

Stoke (h)

Man U (a)

Sunderland (h)

West Brom (a)

Tottenham (h)

us (a)

Cant see them getting more than 4 points before they come to CR. Haven''t liked them since they beat us in the League Cup Final...would love to send them off with our regards to Ipswich on a sunny, relaxed day at Carrow Road.

[Bill 1,788]

We''ll have our eyes focussed on 7th place - it will matter little who we need to beat on the day

[Phyxius 0]

8 points clear with a game in hand. It''s unlikely they''ll be dragged into the mix.

What''s our last game of the season form like? Can''t remember the last time we won.

[dpit 1]

Yep, 8 points clear but I can see Blackburn, Bolton and Wigan kicking on and Villa struggling badly thereby bridging the gap, so that by the time the final sunday comes they will still need at least a point to guarantee survival.

[dpit 1]

To extrapolate further, I think QPR and Wolves will get cut adrift, while Wigan, Bolton and Blackburn use their nous to put together decent runs. Confidence is low at Villa, the crowd are on their backs...I think they could really struggle.

[dpit 1]

We also want to send them down so that when McLeish gets sacked at the end of the season, Lambert won''t even consider saying yes when they come knocking on his door (whereas he might if they are still a Prem club) - and he will get the sack whether they survive or not.

[Syteanric 1]

not convinced by McLeish as a manager, especially after he took Birmingham down last season....has had a bit of money to spend on Villa and failed to get anything out of a decent side.if i were a villa fan i''d feel a little bit uneasy right now

[ROBFLECK 132]

[quote user="jas the barclay king"]not convinced by McLeish as a manager, especially after he took Birmingham down last season....

has had a bit of money to spend on Villa and failed to get anything out of a decent side.

if i were a villa fan i''d feel a little bit uneasy right now
[/quote]Same feeling here Jas, what were they thinking of when they appointed him? It would''ve been a horror show for the fans too at Carra Rud...should George Burley have come in wouldn''t it ;) But I don''t think they are going to be sucked into it...couple of very good players in their team...

[William Darby 0]

It''ll be close but I think they''ll be okay.  Next season could be a problem if they don''t get it sorted out.

[RvWs 4 year contract 0]

No chance. They are on 33 points ATM and I think 35 will be enough.The bottom 3 will not get to 35 points. They are awful.

[canarydan23 4,060]

Wasn''t Villa at Carrow Road our last game on the 94-95 Premier League season? They secured a point to guarantee safety but we were already down? I was only a proper young-un at the time, but I seem to recollect it. There was a massive Chase Out campaign and one Villa fan had bought his own little "Ellis Out" poster.

[thenorthstand 0]

Think Bolton will pick up along with Wigan and Blackburn already are. 35 points might not be enough, 33 certainly isn''t - Looking at those fixtures you may well have a point.

[star_manic 0]

i will be very suprised if the the team finishing 18th this season end up on more than 35 points, so villa, theoretically, need only three more points from their last eight games.

[GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,800]

[quote user="canarydan23"]Wasn''t Villa at Carrow Road our last game on the 94-95 Premier League season? They secured a point to guarantee safety but we were already down? I was only a proper young-un at the time, but I seem to recollect it. There was a massive Chase Out campaign and one Villa fan had bought his own little "Ellis Out" poster.[/quote]

You''re quite correct here. We had already been relegated the week before at Leeds but Villa still had a slight chance of relegation, which would have required them losing to us and at least two results elsewhere going against them (which didnt happen).

At the end of the game the Villa fans were singing "we''ll meet again" at us, which is something I''ve remembered ever since and have always hoped that karma would one day allow us to return that favour?!?

I also recollect being involved in the "Chase out" demos afterwards , with police horses charging at us outside the main stand and police being let loose in the River end car park.............they were the days !?!

[Bill 1,788]

the odds are massively stacked aginst themsimply on the basis of much of the previous seasons - even last seasons freak results, stayed with the trendalthough the not too bright keep shrieking about this mythical 40 point mark, they always conveniently overlook that last season the bottom three were 5/6 points ahead of what they were this season at mid point.

16	West Bromwich Albion	30		8	9	13	41	56		5	6	4	24	25		3	3	9	17	31		-15	33
17	West Ham United	30		7	11	12	36	49		5	4	6	20	21		2	7	6	16	28		-13	32
18	Wolverhampton Wndrs	30		9	5	16	35	49		7	3	5	24	22		2	2	11	11	27		-14	32
19	Birmingham City	29		6	13	10	28	41		4	7	4	14	18		2	6	6	14	23		-13	31
20	Wigan Athletic	30		6	12	12	29	51		4	6	6	18	31		2	6	6	11	20		-22	30

way ahead of what they are at the moment

however pick a more comparable table - 2009/10

16	Wolverhampton Wndrs	30		7	7	16	25	49		4	3	8	10	20		3	4	8	15	29		-24	28
17	West Ham United	30		6	9	15	37	51		5	4	5	24	22		1	5	10	13	29		-14	27
18	Burnley	31		6	6	19	31	64		6	5	4	20	17		0	1	15	11	47		-33	24
19	Hull City	30		5	9	16	29	64		5	5	4	19	22		0	4	12	10	42		-35	24
20	Portsmouth	30		6	4	20	28	53		4	2	9	20	24		2	2	11	8	29		-25	13

and the season finishes

16	Wigan Athletic	38		9	9	20	37	79		6	7	6	19	24		3	2	14	18	55		-42	36
17	West Ham United	38		8	11	19	47	66		7	5	7	30	29		1	6	12	17	37		-19	35
18	Burnley	38		8	6	24	42	82		7	5	7	25	30		1	1	17	17	52		-40	30
19	Hull City	38		6	12	20	34	75		6	6	7	22	29		0	6	13	12	46		-41	30
20	Portsmouth	38		7	7	24	34	66		5	3	11	24	32		2	4	13	10	34		-32	19

it is highly unlikely that three of the bottom teams will reach 35 points and Villa only pick up one more point

[dpit 1]

I''m obviously as distracted as you, City 1st. Here''s how it could happen with some perfectly feasible results

Villa:

Chelsea L

Liverpool D

Stoke D

Sunderland L

W Brom D

Tottenham L

Norwich L

Final Total: 36

Bolton:

Tottenham L

Wolves W

Fulham W

Newcastle L

Swansea W

Sunderland L

W Brom W

Stoke D

Villa W

Final Total: 42

Wigan:

Stoke D

Chelsea D

Man U L

Arsenal L

Fulham W

Newcastle D

Blackburn W

Wolves W

Final Total: 37

Blackburn:

Man U L

W Brom W

Liverpool D

Swansea D

Norwich W (I know!)

Tottenham L

Wigan L

Chelsea D

Final Total: 36

[dpit 1]

My point is that not only do Bolton and Wigan have some wind in their sails but also some realistic point winning games. Villa are on a downward slide and have some tough fixtures. Blackburn are doing Ok but have a tough run in. So for me, its QPR (very difficult set of games) and Wolves (crap) to occupy the bottom slots and Villa and Blackburn to vie to avoid the other slot, with a 2-3 goal margin victory for us on the final day sending Villa down by 1 goal on GD!

[Bill 1,788]

I shan''t speculate, no need as past seasons have proved uncannily accurate

............. which suggest your totals are way, way off target

[dpit 1]

Past seasons have proved uncannily accurate as what? I presume you mean as predictors. Meaning that you have picked one season and suggest that the same will happen again. I prefer to look at the present situation and make projections based on current form and upcoming fixtures.

[Bill 1,788]

"Meaning that you have picked one season"

err, no the clue is in the beginning of your post  ie  ''Past seasons''

[canary_bird 0]

Wasn''t Villa at Carrow Road our last game on the 94-95 Premier League season? They secured a point to guarantee safety but we were already down? I was only a proper young-un at the time, but I seem to recollect it. There was a massive Chase Out campaign and one Villa fan had bought his own little "Ellis Out" poster.

You''re quite correct here. We had already been relegated the week before at Leeds but Villa still had a slight chance of relegation, which would have required them losing to us and at least two results elsewhere going against them (which didnt happen).

At the end of the game the Villa fans were singing "we''ll meet again" at us, which is something I''ve remembered ever since and have always hoped that karma would one day allow us to return that favour?!?

I also recollect being involved in the "Chase out" demos afterwards , with police horses charging at us outside the main stand and police being let loose in the River end car park.............they were the days !?!

Yes, what a fun time it was ...??!

I remember the Villa fans singing "We''re Cr*p and we''re staying up" and "Going down with the souffle", which did make me smile (through the tears).

[Pyro Pete 1,918]

Firstly, what a luxury to be able to speculate on who will go down knowing we are all but safe!As for Villa''s demise,  it''s possible but highly unlikely. The coming fixtures suggest Wolves and QPR are pretty much done for. Leaving one other to join them. I''d say Blackburn.

[ricardo 7,400]

[quote user="City1st"]"Meaning that you have picked one season"

err, no the clue is in the beginning of your post  ie  ''Past seasons''[/quote]

There''s something wrong with your points totals for Portsmouth City 1st.6 wins and 4 draws should be 22 points7 wins and 7 draws is 28 points

[lake district canary 0]

Personally think that any of the bottom clubs (Wolves excepted) are capable of putting a run together and pulling clear, which it is why it was so important for us to get well clear by this stage.   Any club in range  - including Villa - who have a bad run will run the risk of being caught up in the final week or two of the season.    Would be a fascinating scenario if it happens.   Norwich needing to win to get seventh place, Villa needing to win to stay up.   The season''s not over yet!!

 

 

 

[Bill 1,788]

They were deducted 9 points on 17th March that year for going into administrationSo yes, the points total can be read as you state (though technically not)If you look at the halfway stage that season you had, (red numbers are final place point totals, not teams) -

16	Wigan Athletic	18		5	4	9																	19           36
17	West Ham United	19		4	6	9																	18           35
18	Bolton Wanderers	17		4	5	8																	17           30
19	Hull City	19		4	5	10																	17           30
20	Portsmouth	19		4	2	13																	14           28

so there is a reasonable correlation between the points at halfway and at the finish of the season, this has been pretty much the case through the past seasons

[William Darby 0]

Just give up City1st.  The government wasn''t far off the mark when they claimed the country''s maths skills were s**t.

[Mister Chops 7]

Quite possibly we will, and that would be awesome.

[Branston Pickle 3,686]

It would add some nice spice to the last game if Villa needed something from it, but I can''t really see it. Chances are they only need 2-3 pts to be safe. Any one or perhaps two of the guys at the bottom might overhaul them, but surely not 3 of them.

[ricardo 7,400]

[quote user="City1st"]They were deducted 9 points on 17th March that year for going into administrationSo yes, the points total can be read as you state (though technically not)If you look at the halfway stage that season you had, (red numbers are final place point totals, not teams) -

16	Wigan Athletic	18		5	4	9																	19           36
17	West Ham United	19		4	6	9																	18           35
18	Bolton Wanderers	17		4	5	8																	17           30
19	Hull City	19		4	5	10																	17           30
20	Portsmouth	19		4	2	13																	14           28

so there is a reasonable correlation between the points at halfway and at the finish of the season, this has been pretty much the case through the past seasons

[/quote]Thanks for that C1. I had forgotten about the points deduction. Profuse apologies.