6 days, 3 games, how many points??

[Paul 0]

WIth 3 games in 6 days, 2 tough away games, how many points would you be happy with by friday at 10pm.

Obviously we all want 9 points and its not out of the realm of possibility.

I would take 7 (2 wins and draw) or 6 (two wins), and I think it''s vital we don''t lose against Swansea.

[Row D Seat 7 0]

7 points. The draw coming at Watford.

[a1canary 0]

One of each - loss, win, draw. 4 points.

Pessimist!

[Jim Smith 2,349]

I will optimistically say 6. I can''t see us not losing one of these games but as to which one that might be I have no idea!

[Petriix 2,853]

Remember that we are 4 points above Cardiff and Swansea and now with a better goal difference so, assuming that we don''t suffer any heavy defeats then they would need five more points than us to overtake us. With 7 games left, this means that 17 points should be enough even if both these teams win all their remaining games. This is obviously highly unlikely, so lets be realistic...If we get a reasonable return of say 12 points from the remaining 7 games then Swansea or Cardiff would need to get at least 16 and probably 17 points to overtake us. Is that likely? I don''t think so given their recent runs of form. In fact, the run-in table suggests we are under more threat from Reading on current form. So the numbers suggest that as few as 10 points would be enough. Obviously form is variable and any one team could go on a fantastic (or awful) run and the best predictions are out the window.It would be a bit shocking not to get at least 6 points from our final 4 games so 4 points from the next 3 games could easily be enough - especially if we get at least a point at Swansea.I wouldn''t want to be in one of the other team''s shoes right now!

[Hairy Canary 713]

I''m with Frank. If we can still be second after these three games then I will feel much more confident. Four points will mean either Swansea or Cardiff would have to win all their three games to overtake us which is a big ask. My gut instinct says we will get 5 points - two draws and a win. Comfy.[:)] 

[Sing up the river end 0]

Well 2 points a game is what we need so 6 points would do nicely, and put us in a great position.Although looking at the games 5 points wouldn''t be a disaster,draw away games, win home ,job done.Anything better would just be a bonus.

[morty 0]

I''m liking your analysis Frank.[:)]

[TheGoogler 324]

9 points.

[Barclay hero 0]

At the start of the season I had this down as probably our toughest run of games, especially with Ipswich away just afterwards.  My original estimate was 2 draws (Watford A and Forest) and 2 defeats (Swansea and Scum)

 

However the way we''ve been playing I think we can get at least 7 points from those 4.  So following Franks thoughts, that would leave us needing 5 or 6 points from Derby Coventry and Portsmouth.

 

If we win on Saturday, thats effectively Swansea out of the loop - if Leeds fail to beat Millwall and Forest and Reading draw then they cant really catch us either - just leaving Cardiff to overcome

[Mutley 79]

What I like especially is that on the ''run in link'' supplied by Frank our season form and current form still leaves us in second place at the end of the season.With 12 games to go I had us down for reaching 80 points and finishing in 5th! This was not an overly positive finishing place prediction but this points total is there or there abouts where we will finish and we are currently bang on that by my reckoning. In that points total I have us down to only get 3 points in the next 4 games, a defeat at Swansea and then 3 draws. I also had QPR to reach 92 points (on track) Swansea to reach 88 points (way behind) and Cardiff 87 points (way behind) and Forest  83 points (miles behind) with us finishing in 5th!I now have a revised table:QPR 91NORWICH 80 Cardiff 79 Swansea 79Reading 77Leeds 75This would mean that we need to beat Derby and Coventry at home and drwa with Pompey away in our last 3 games. What do you all think?

[DDD In The Fine City 1]

Its 3 games in 7 days but I''d be happy with 4 points or more

[willo2 0]

Six, we play next Friday v Forest....

[a1canary 0]

Liking it too Frank. But i will say that i think our biggest threat is still Cardiff. I''m not bothered by Reading if only because all those teams below have had spells where they look like they''re going to storm the top two. Both Forest and Burnley went on runs that would have seen them to second if they''d won a couple of games in hand. They didn''t. In fact they lost their games in hand, went on a terrible run and would both now be lucky to make the play-offs. Reading, like Forest and Burnley before, have hit a purple patch, but few teams are able to maintain it. Cardiff however, while they''ve had a bit of a blip in terms of wins, are more like us. They very rarely lose. And are now hitting form again.

[YankeeCanary 0]

[quote user="a1canary"]Liking it too Frank. But i will say that i think our biggest threat is still Cardiff. I''m not bothered by Reading if only because all those teams below have had spells where they look like they''re going to storm the top two. Both Forest and Burnley went on runs that would have seen them to second if they''d won a couple of games in hand. They didn''t. In fact they lost their games in hand, went on a terrible run and would both now be lucky to make the play-offs. Reading, like Forest and Burnley before, have hit a purple patch, but few teams are able to maintain it. Cardiff however, while they''ve had a bit of a blip in terms of wins, are more like us. They very rarely lose. And are now hitting form again.[/quote]

A1, a couple of results going the wrong way and, all of a sudden, two or three different teams can be our biggest threat. Cardiff may turn out to be our biggest threat but not for the reasons you have given here. They have lost more games than Leeds and Reading this season. Indeed, during the past nine games they have lost as many games as they have won, yielding only 12 points during that time. They may have appeared to have a comfortable win against a lacklustre Derby side but even in that game were only able to muster five shots on goal. Prior to that win they had been winless in their previous four games. Hardly confirmation of a return to form in my opinion.

[NCFCPaul 0]

[quote user="willo2"]Six, we play next Friday v Forest....[/quote]With the risk of sounding pedantic it is 7 days... 1Sat, 2Sun 3Mon 4Tue 5Wed 6Thurs 7Fri.   Anyway yes 5 points for me, with the win coming at Swansea would put us in a great position.

[Chunky Norwich 0]

Draw at Swansea, scrappy win at Watford, resounding win against Forest

[blahblahblah 2]

draws away, win at home. 5 points. Good analysis Frank.

[Chelmsford Canary 0]

I would be loving just the five

Swans - Draw

Watford - Draw

Forest - Win

[CaptnCanary 0]

5 or more would probably be fantastic assuming Cardiff dont win their next 3

[Josh 0]

Cardiff have 8 points from their last 6 games. Not that great form. They have 5 points from their last 3 games admittedly, but still, 2 wins from their last 6 games hardly has me worried. I''d be suprised if they could better our form and gain 5 points on us.

[scrappy33 0]

sorry folks i think it will be 4.

[Wembley_Canary 0]

9 points from the 3 games for me, now is the ideal time to play these sides to kill of their promotion threat.

[Petriix 2,853]

So four points from these three games was enough, Cardiff did go on a fantastic run but faultered at the last, Reading lost momentum and Swansea beat us but then predictably fell away. There were some good predictions in this thread. I believe we were on 70pts at the time. Depending on how Cardiff and Swansea get on next week we may only have needed as few as 10pts from our last 7 games. Who would have predicted that we could end up 6pts clear of third place?