The Future Starts Here

[yellow hammer 131]

If you had to describe Norwich City Football Club then dull is not one of the words you’d choose. It has been a whirlwind of breath-taking excitement over the past few years and mainly for all the wrong reasons. Many have commented that the events surrounding City have been like a plane spiraling out of control, with each day bringing new revelations and the sort of twists and turns that you’d expect to find a Stephen King horror story.

Yet among all the carnage and chaos there are perhaps a few threads appearing that might give some indication of where we’re headed in the next few years. One thing is for sure, I think, there is a lot more change to come in the seasons ahead and to be fore-warned is to be fore-armed. So what are the pointers to the future?

McNally:

The biggest failure of our club has been the lack of a good footballing brain on the Board of Directors. In my opinion Mcnally is the most important capture since Darren Huckerby signed over five years ago. Regardless of how passionate the old board was about success for our club, you can’t beat competence for getting a job done. Mcnally is more of a director of football than Doncaster, who seemed more like a person who ran the club according to what he learnt on his MBA course – good at committee meetings and communicating with the customers and soft skills, whereas McNally seems to have a gut feeling for football, judging the managerial appointments he’s made both here and in his previous jobs. I think we have winkled out a premiership quality footballing director who isn’t a football manager-wannabe, the main reason why these types of appointments usually fail.

Not only does McNally come with Premiership experience, he is also at the right age where experience, energy and authority all come together into a winning combination. Can we hang on to him, though? I think we can. I think the Norfolk-effect will kick in. His wife will love the area, his kids will go to good schools. We can offer him a good career as we go up the leagues, and then there is our Norfolk environment to keep him here.

The New Board:

Now here’s a thing. If the stories coming out, and posters like Cam, are to be believed, then the two majority shareholders were persuaded, against their personal wishes, to sanction the firing of Bryan Gunn. This is no insignificant matter, because in a one-person one-vote situation the two owners of the club can, and apparently have been, outvoted by the other board members. If they were outvoted over the manager situation then they can easily be outvoted over other issues. Though, as Cam pointed out correctly, it will always be presented for public consumption as a unanimous decision, not wanting to appear to be split in public. I think we will see a more independent line taken against the owners than previously. I think Bowkett is the hard man here, and McNally has his support. The Stowmarket Two have no leverage at the moment because the club’s situation is dire, and any disagreement that causes McNally and Bowkett to walk away, and take one or two of the other directors with them will put the club’s future in danger. If Delia is sincere in her desire to put the club’s interests first then she cannot afford to do anything other than go along with the new men in the board room. This is how I feel the current boardroom situation is playing – it may change as circumstances change but I feel the new board members are taking up the running where the sacking of Doncaster and Munby left a vacuum and a boardroom bereft of ideas.

The new boardroom team will have a much greater say in the direction of the club than the previous one because they can carry more voting clout – a six person board has more chance of out-voting the two majority shareholders. And while Smith and Jones can bring any issues to an AGM and win a shareholder vote each time, they run the risk of publicizing board room disagreements by doing so. Whether this translates into less spending on infrastructure and more on the playing squad remains to be seen. If I were NCISA I would be putting these types of questions to McNally and Bowkett rather than Smith and Jones. There has been a shift in power and the NCISA would do well to exploit the situation to its benefit.

Delia and Michael:

The king is dead! Long live the king! Well not quite, but it’s true enough that time and tide waits for no man. It cannot have escaped our owners’ attention that the energy, passion and commitment required to run a famous club like ours doesn’t get any easier as the years go by. Although they’ve made many comments on whether the club is for sale or not, on the type of investment they’re looking for and the character of the investor who is looking to buy into our club, and even though many of those comments have been inconsistent and sometimes at odds with their actions, what we’ve never had is a comment about their own personal future plans. If there has been, I must have missed them and it is important because their personal life is so much bound up with the club.

I believe that the owners must be looking for an exit strategy. If not now then soon. But what do they really want? They have said that they want to hand over to someone who cares as much about the club as they do and who can put continuous amounts of funds into the club. But that could mean a family member taking over their shareholding, for example, as much as it could be a wealthy Middle-Eastern businessman with a love for all things green and yellow.

At the moment Smith and Jones are caught between a rock and a hard place. They can probably finance third or fourth division football for a few years more and claim that least we remain true to the “pure” spirit of football. But they know it won’t wash for the fans. And if fans don’t renew season tickets then the club is in big trouble to finance the debts which are currently securitized again season tickets. On the other hand, if – no; make that a when – we are promoted then the associated costs will rise beyond the duo’s means. And we’ll be back to where we were – an underfunded Championship side. Let’s make no mistake about it – the financial commitments to off-field activities will hold us back for seasons to come, unless there is a massive property boom just over the horizon. In other words , not very likely. So the only other solution, bringing in new cash inevitably means loss of control because knights in shining armour will demand their share of the pie in return for new investment.

My feeling, from the statements they have put out, is that they really don’t have a personal plan and are hoping that something will turn up if they hang on for long enough. It worked when Nigel Worthington appeared on the scene and if Lambert turns out to be Nigel Mark II then they’ll think there’s a good chance of striking a deal that will allow them to exit with a sizeable amount of their investment returned. I don’t think it will happen. Not because Lambert won’t take us places, but more because during Worthington’s tenure as City manager football was awash with money. Six years on and reality, notwithstanding the Manchester City’s of this world, seems to be returning as football finds it is not immune from the woes of the global economy. Smith and Jones have missed the boat. And if they haven’t yet realized that owning a football club is not a safe haven for granny’s nest egg then we’re in for some more shocks and surprises over the next two-three years. In fact it wouldn’t surprise me (are we becoming blasé about events that would leave us astonished in the past?) if Michael and Delia didn’t find themselves on the wrong end of a hostile take-over bid one of these fine days.

The Coaching Staff:

If I were in a mean mood I would remind you that the law of large numbers tells us that if you wait long enough the right result will eventually turn up. But writing this in the warm glow of an away win, I’ll try to be a little more gracious.

Hallelujah!

There, I feel better now. OK, joking aside it is far too early to judge Lambert on just a couple of results, but he does have that right blend of experience, energy and desire to succeed, just as his boss, McNally, seems to have the same qualities. That is a formidable combination. Even more telling, I can’t remember supporters of West Ham, Newcastle or Watford coming onto the Pinkun forum spitting sour grapes over the loss of Peter Grant or Glenn Roeder. We must have touched a nerve there. If he is the real McCoy then Norwich City in its present condition is a club with a lot of growth potential. There’s much for Paul Lambert to achieve before he seeks to move on to bigger, if not greener, pastures. Let’s enjoy the now for now. And any way the mean streak in me says that we’ve so much experience in hiring new managers, we bound to get it right twice in a row. Ha ha ha!

On a more serious note, capturing the right manager is only part of the battle. A good manager has to be backed with enough funds to push on upwards. This is why I put McNally and the new board as my main factors in determining the outcome of our future. I think new investment will come by way of the new board members, probably not through themselves, as they are not super rich, but more through their business contacts. Forget Keith Harris and Delia; it’s a smokescreen. If something were to happen on that front it would have happened already.

The Squad:

Funnily enough, even though these young men are the ones who actually go out and put in the performances that determine our success or failure, I actually think they are the least significant factor in determining our future. Why so? Because if Lambert is the man we hope he is, he will get us out of this division with this squad. If he is not what’s written on the side of the can then he will fail with this squad. It is a truism that we are where we are. It is also sadly true that there is preciously little budget available in our current situation to improve the quality of the playing squad. Indeed there is some argument whether Wes Houlihan is a luxury player at this level and we ought to cash him in, in order to bring in more depth to the squad. Well, the same arguments were bandied about during Huckerby’s reign, and while you can always sell a quality player in return for three Chris Browns, you can’t field thirteen players on a Saturday afternoon without some referee being picky about the rules.

There is however, a big positive about the squad. And that is, that a number of very promising young players are making the step up from the Academy to the first team. A club might be happy for a couple of Academy players per season to break through. In that respect, the past few years have been barren ones. Even the Jarvis years turned out to be a false dawn. However, last season’s good showing in the youth leagues is now turning into the reality of four or five good young players making the first team squad. If we can get at least a couple of players up to the right standard every year then we can put together half the team from players who have been together since they sang soprano. Now what a difference to understanding one another on the pitch that makes when you judge it against Roeder’s loan arranger experiment. Young colts instead of guinea pigs.

Managers need a little bit of luck and it seems that Lambert has arrived just as a stream of fresh, young Academy talent is breaking into the first team squad. Lucky Lambert is said to possess good man-management skills, what better then than using them to shape the personalities of a batch of up-and-coming young players to gives us a team full of fighting spirit.

The Fans:

Last but by no means least. The fans will play a significant role in the future outcome of our club for two reasons. Firstly, if the season ticket holders decide next year not to renew in large numbers then the debt securitization deal could scupper the club entirely. We may be facing administration if there is not enough cash to cover the debt payments. Whatever cannot be tied down will be sold. That which is tied down will be carted off, broken up and then sold. The end of the season will be a white knuckle affair. From now until then it’s up to McNally and Lambert to get it right. After that the fate of the club will be in the hands of the fans. For all those who whine and say they can’t do anything about the club and where it’s at - well next renewal time, nothing could be further from the truth. The future of the club will be in your hands. It will be an interesting time to be an NCISA member.

On a more positive note, the second significant role the fans will play in the future of our club is a curious one. It couldn’t be better scripted by the Carrow Road spinmeisters than if they tried. Have you noticed how every single new signing, whether player or coach or director always says somewhere in their acceptance speech that part of their decision for joining Norwich City was the fan base and the thought of playing in front of 20,000 plus crowds at every home game? So the cynic in me says it has to be the work of the PR department drumming up the feel-good factor. But since everyone and his mum comes out with this line, and I can’t imagine McNally (yes him again) being told what to say, I have to put skepticism to one side and start thinking that it really must be true. That they do want to perform in front of big crowds, (ergo: Norwich City must therefore be a “big” club), that having fans sing your name and blowing a hole in the roof of the millennium stadium with their songs, really does make a difference. If that is the case then there’s a second reason why you, as a fan on the terraces, do make a difference.

If we agree that the fans are an important element in our future, then what signs are there to give us an indication of how the future is likely to pan out?

If the board were looking for a vote of confidence then the recent season ticket refund was as close to a by-election as they’ll get. As worthy as the various supporters’ groups are, there’s nothing quite like asking people to put their money where their mouth is. An inelegant phrase, but asking twenty-five thousand people to cough up an extra, not insignificant amount, is a pretty damn good measure of public opinion. The fact that two-thirds of the most die-hard supporters put in their claims for a rebate is a great big red flag that the board can only ignore at their peril. I think the fans are telling the board that they’re drinking in the last-chance saloon. If it all goes Stephen Hawkins on the football field they can kiss goodbye to thousands of season ticket renewals.

Hmmm… and I thought I was going to end on a positive note.

In Summary:

I intended to jot down a couple of paragraphs but somehow got a little carried away. Sorry about that. Here is the above condensed, as it was intended.

Despite all the recent gloom and doom, I think there is enough evidence to say that the seeds of our recovery have been sown. We’re not yet at the “green shoots” stage as yet, and those seeds may still wither in the ground. But with proper management we can be turned around. I do believe we have the best management team in place for years, whether by luck or by good judgment, I’ll let you decide. However it does give us the chance to move on.

The major roadblock will be “the succession”. But if this isn’t soon resolved, factors will come into play that will force a resolution. Plenty of mouth-watering headlines for Archant, I suspect. Lambert will need to be backed with serious money if we are to kick on. The next twelve months are crucial. If it looks like we’re making progress on the field the fans will dig deep once again and keep the club in business. If it goes off the rails at some point, I think the season ticket holders will call time and the club will be looking at administration.

Like I said at the beginning, never a dull moment at Norwich City Football Club.

[Beauseant 0]

Absolutely superb post yellow hammer. Good points well made,and  I really enjoyed reading it.

 

[Lincs CR 0]

Excellent read Yellow Hammer :)

[canary cherub 1]

A good read, and a salutary reminder that despite the encouraging signs on the field of play we''re still in BIG trouble off it.  In the end success or failure will depend on the club sorting itself out financially. 

The balance of power in the boardroom appears to have shifted decisively, but despite rumours of the Sullivan/Gold variety there''s little reason to think that D&M are doing anything other than hanging on hoping that their luck will change.  And therein lies the problem: they think it''s shockingly bad luck while almost everyone else realises it''s shockingly bad judgement.

 

[Rock the Boat 0]

Great post. Reckon the business with Delia and husband has to be sorted before we can really start to motor.

[Downloads 35]

You know i want to be positive, i really do, its in my nature...

But i fear Leeds and Charlton will finish above us and that means hoping we go up via the playoffs and if that fails then next year we will have 3 more ex Championship teams to contend with, a Southampton with a fresh start and more money and a Notts County with more money who i think most people are predicting will get promoted. I see the potential for us being a Leeds and struggling to get out.

Someone give me a slap of positivity! We can beat Charlton and MK Dons in September, give them a good hiding and push on?? Can''t we??

[Mello Yello 2,573]

"THWACK!".. Thanks Yellow Hammer..Hammering it home an''  hitting it full and square on the head![Y]

[Ivana_rubyatitz 6]

Cracking summary of where we are at.

[Joanna Grey 0]

In fact it wouldn’t surprise me (are we becoming blasé about events that would leave us astonished in the past?) if Michael and Delia didn’t find themselves on the wrong end of a hostile take-over bid one of these fine days.

It would surprise me, because as majority shareholders D and M can not be on the wrong end of a hostile takeover.

[PurpleCanary 6,391]

[quote user="Mustachio Furioso"]

In fact it wouldn’t surprise me (are we becoming blasé about events that would leave us astonished in the past?) if Michael and Delia didn’t find themselves on the wrong end of a hostile take-over bid one of these fine days.

It would surprise me, because as majority shareholders D and M can not be on the wrong end of a hostile takeover.

[/quote]The fact that NCFC is an unlisted plc certainly makes a hostile takeover unlikely. Perhaps not impossible, but very difficult to achieve. That is not to say someone might not try, of course.

[The Butler 0]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="Mustachio Furioso"]

In fact it wouldn’t surprise me (are we becoming blasé about events that would leave us astonished in the past?) if Michael and Delia didn’t find themselves on the wrong end of a hostile take-over bid one of these fine days.

It would surprise me, because as majority shareholders D and M can not be on the wrong end of a hostile takeover.

[/quote]

The fact that NCFC is an unlisted plc certainly makes a hostile takeover unlikely. Perhaps not impossible, but very difficult to achieve. That is not to say someone might not try, of course.[/quote]

Got a spare £5.00 then PC?

Excellent original post, sums up what many feel at present.

[PurpleCanary 6,391]

[quote user="The Butler"][quote user="PurpleCanary"][quote user="Mustachio Furioso"]

In fact it wouldn’t surprise me (are we becoming blasé about events that would leave us astonished in the past?) if Michael and Delia didn’t find themselves on the wrong end of a hostile take-over bid one of these fine days.

It would surprise me, because as majority shareholders D and M can not be on the wrong end of a hostile takeover.

[/quote]The fact that NCFC is an unlisted plc certainly makes a hostile takeover unlikely. Perhaps not impossible, but very difficult to achieve. That is not to say someone might not try, of course.[/quote]

Got a spare £5.00 then PC?

Excellent original post, sums up what many feel at present.

[/quote]I''m flattered that you want me as the next owner, Butler! My backers are actually working in Swiss francs (well, of course they would be) so it''s actually a spare SFr8.60898...

[Shyster 0]

Commendations to you, YH, an excellent read indeed.

[yellow hammer 131]

[quote user="Mustachio Furioso"]

In fact it wouldn’t surprise me (are we becoming blasé about events that would leave us astonished in the past?) if Michael and Delia didn’t find themselves on the wrong end of a hostile take-over bid one of these fine days.

It would surprise me, because as majority shareholders D and M can not be on the wrong end of a hostile takeover.

[/quote]

A hostile take over bid would be difficult to achieve but not impossible. I can think of three situations where it could occur.

1. A big rise in the stock market, even if in one or two sectors and not generally, would create some wealthy paper millionaires. They might be tempted to turn that paper into tangible fixed assets, of which we seem to have plenty.

2. Similar to number one, a wealthy speculator thinks our club has a lot of growth potential from its current position. And with a professional management team in place, we could look like a worthwhile risk.

3. Discontent from fans, or more probably those who have already made enquiries and been rebuffed, leads to a consortium being formed with the goal of wresting ownership from a couple of recalcitrant pensioners.

From where ever a bid was delivered, a hostile takeover would be a very messy affair. It would be fought over in the public arena with all sides trying to win the hearts and minds of the minority shareholders and other fans. I think it would make the Cullum affair look like a storm in a brown envelope.

[Mr.Carrow 394]

Great post *bump*.  Re. the crowds point- a hypothetical point to consider is that had crowds fallen to 16k-odd (as everyone at the club must have expected), would we be in administration already?

[Boot 0]

I agree entirely that McNally is a very fine appointment and will be key to any future ssuccess. As for new investment, well that would be great of course (if unlikely in my view) but any new owner may well want their own chief exec in place, wouldn''t you?

McNally out and Karen Brady in anyone?

[yellow hammer 131]

[quote user="Boot"]I agree entirely that McNally is a very fine appointment and will be key to any future ssuccess. As for new investment, well that would be great of course (if unlikely in my view) but any new owner may well want their own chief exec in place, wouldn''t you?

McNally out and Karen Brady in anyone?[/quote]

Any new investor looking at the club and the good things that McNally is doing will surely want to keep him in place?

Wouldn''t make sense to lose one of your best assets.

[pennywise 0]

all goes stephen hawkins on the pitch ? thats a bit cruel..i`ve heard of it all going pete tong but never heard that one before [:)]