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SeattleCanary

Do the bookies actually do any proper research?

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Seeing the article earlier stating that we have been placed as one of the top favourites for promotion, and not only that but winning the league of all things. Do the bookies actually have a look at the clubs that come down and the financial situation before making them favourites to bounce back, or do you reckon they just look at the end of the season and think ''''hhmmm..... Norwich, Southampton and Charlton relegated, so.........thats poor football all season thats done that, so............um............they''ll be favourites to do the opposite and play well next season, and uh win everything i guess?''''

Also to add if they had seen the comment made by Gunn today and the fact that we have no transfer kitty. Surely if they took a ganders at what little squad we do still have and thats expected to gradually disappear, with no promise of replacements (let alone the kind of replacements that will merit us being worth the odds assigned), they would take us out of the reckoning.

I mean for gods sake we can''t even tempt Billy Clarke over Brenford its embarrasing. Shame that we were relegated as it seems there are a few good players on frees in the champ this year that are too good for league 1. We could have filled a few of those holes in the squad to make up numbers, surely now we must look more towards the conference and the bottom of league 2.

OTBC

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Well of course identifying a false favourite is a good start to having a bet. The hardest part is identifying the team that should be favourite. The bookies must have made a shedload after all the early confidence on QPR last season.

 

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I think this is tough. First of all the bookies don''t get a lot wrong.

The truth is no one really knows what will happen next season. We suspect we will have a season of transition. But we could finish in the top two depending on who we buy.

Bookies should do research, because they employ people to do that job. And if they don''t it makes you wonder what these people are doing.

However, I do have my doubts, because there was a game towards the end of last season when Jamie Cureton and Chris Killen were 7/1 to the score the first goal.

Jamie hadn''t been near the first team for weeks and Chris was back in Scotland.

As to what the odds should be:

Well I think Leeds should be the favourites followed by MK Dons and then we should be a group with Millwall/Scunthorpe, Charlton.

I personally can''t see us finishing top two, but time will tell.

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bookmakers get their odds from money spent on bets.openning odds generaly reflect what they think will be the team with most money going on them to win(so i have been lead to believe,im no bookmaker).they dont want to lose money and they generally dont!

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[quote user="Jim Kent"]I think this is tough. First of all the bookies don''t get a lot wrong. The truth is no one really knows what will happen next season. We suspect we will have a season of transition. But we could finish in the top two depending on who we buy. Bookies should do research, because they employ people to do that job. And if they don''t it makes you wonder what these people are doing. However, I do have my doubts, because there was a game towards the end of last season when Jamie Cureton and Chris Killen were 7/1 to the score the first goal. Jamie hadn''t been near the first team for weeks and Chris was back in Scotland. As to what the odds should be: Well I think Leeds should be the favourites followed by MK Dons and then we should be a group with Millwall/Scunthorpe, Charlton. I personally can''t see us finishing top two, but time will tell.[/quote]

Bookies dont base there odds on possible team selections, nor do they sit down and evaluate every price.

Prices for players to score first are based on the odds (to win) of the club they play for.

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to be fair to the bookies -

who actually know about norwich fc? i.e no squad? no money? etc....

people who live in the area, norwich fans, ipswich fans, maybe few championship fans

now 1000 joe bloggs from liverpool fancy an accumulator for each division winners at start of the season who do they pick?

saints -10 so they wont attract to many

Leeds, Norwich, Charlton - will be several peoples top selections

i''d say 900 at least would pick one of you three

hence why the bookies have to keep your price down

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[quote user="CDMullins"]

[quote user="Jim Kent"]I think this is tough. First of all the bookies don''t get a lot wrong. The truth is no one really knows what will happen next season. We suspect we will have a season of transition. But we could finish in the top two depending on who we buy. Bookies should do research, because they employ people to do that job. And if they don''t it makes you wonder what these people are doing. However, I do have my doubts, because there was a game towards the end of last season when Jamie Cureton and Chris Killen were 7/1 to the score the first goal. Jamie hadn''t been near the first team for weeks and Chris was back in Scotland. As to what the odds should be: Well I think Leeds should be the favourites followed by MK Dons and then we should be a group with Millwall/Scunthorpe, Charlton. I personally can''t see us finishing top two, but time will tell.[/quote]

Bookies dont base there odds on possible team selections, nor do they sit down and evaluate every price.

Prices for players to score first are based on the odds (to win) of the club they play for.

[/quote]

Yeah I was going to say this, if the team is a short price then the strikers in that team will be a short price to score first.

Most of the odds are pre-calculated so I wouldnt read to much into this, like someone else said the teams that go down will always be favorites to go straight back up.

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Bookmakers set the odds on an outcome with this basic principle in mind:"Whatever the outcome of this event we want to pay out about 90 to 95 percent of what we take in."Odds are then set on this principle - the short odds go to those runners that the bookies expect more people to bet on.  The art of being a bookmaker is about spotting who people are likely to bet heavily on.   People bet on teams, horses etc. for a variety of reasons and odds have to reflect all of these.  For instance horses or teams that punters have actually heard of attract more bets, so have shorter odds, as do tips from media outlets, horses with topical names (eg mothers ruin around mothers day), as well as teams/horses who are actually likely to win.  This is the reason that you get different odds on first scorer in the ground depending on which home/away section you are in and which team the player is from (fans back their own players more heavily than opposition ones.This is also the reason that you should never bet on a British player to win Wimbledon, Man U to win the champions league final or England to beat anyone with a British bookie - if you can, go to a Spanish one! (or any other natioality ofc, but one with a vested interest in the opposition is a good idea)

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[quote user="7rew"]Bookmakers set the odds on an outcome with this basic principle in mind:

"Whatever the outcome of this event we want to pay out about 90 to 95 percent of what we take in."

Odds are then set on this principle - the short odds go to those runners that the bookies expect more people to bet on.  The art of being a bookmaker is about spotting who people are likely to bet heavily on.   People bet on teams, horses etc. for a variety of reasons and odds have to reflect all of these.  For instance horses or teams that punters have actually heard of attract more bets, so have shorter odds, as do tips from media outlets, horses with topical names (eg mothers ruin around mothers day), as well as teams/horses who are actually likely to win. 

This is the reason that you get different odds on first scorer in the ground depending on which home/away section you are in and which team the player is from (fans back their own players more heavily than opposition ones.

This is also the reason that you should never bet on a British player to win Wimbledon, Man U to win the champions league final or England to beat anyone with a British bookie - if you can, go to a Spanish one! (or any other natioality ofc, but one with a vested interest in the opposition is a good idea)
[/quote]

Yeah a lot of times I''ve looked at the odds for european matches or international matches and the odds for the english team are always shorter than they should be, boxing is another good example of where this happens- When someone like Haye fights Klitschko this summer expect his odds to be shorter than what they should really be.

 

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[quote user="SpanishCanary"]

I mean for gods sake we can''t even tempt Billy Clarke over Brenford its embarrasing. Shame that we were relegated as it seems there are a few good players on frees in the champ this year that are too good for league 1. We could have filled a few of those holes in the squad to make up numbers, surely now we must look more towards the conference and the bottom of league 2.

OTBC

[/quote]

To be fair, relegated sides will normally be among the frontrunners according to the bookies, based purely on experience - I guess the idea is that they will be too good for the lower division and it is normally the case that one or more of the relegated sides is there or thereabouts.  Yes we will lose a fair number of players in the close season, but that is the case for all relegated (and, indeed, not relegated sides).  IMO the bookies will have taken a ''wider'' view of things - as City supporters we are perhaps too close to see how we are seen in the bigger picture - so are right now quite reasonably thinking we will fare badly whereas we probably won''t do.

IMO there''s no real reason to suggest that we will get automatic promotion or anything, but nor is there any particular reason to think we will struggle or be relegated as some seem to insist.  Having seen some lower League 1 matches at first hand (Brighton) I think there is a bit of a gap between the top and bottom there, and I don''t think we will be at the bottom.

Re: the Billy Clarke thing, one of my mates is a Bees fan and he reckoned that Clarke was going to sign for them several months ago, should he be released.  I guess you could argue that we might want to try to nip in on the deal, but perhaps he wants to go there - or perhaps he doesn''t want to come here (he was a binner for a few years after all, and might hold the rivalry against us (he is young).  But at the end of the day, there''s plenty of others out there on a free.

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