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6 minutes ago, king canary said:

There is a difference between bringing through young players from the academy and playing players who are a bit younger.

Thank you, I think that's probably what I overlooked as just concentrating on age.

But is that a bad thing if instead of them sitting on a bench and never get going (Such as Idah) that we start to loan them out and instead focus on more established (younger) players?

It's whether this is a negative approach that i'm trying to get my head around, as shown already, he will bring youth through if they're ready.  And the Kamara and Mumba loans has demonstrated more forward progression for players than sitting on our bench.

This years squad has an air of necessity about it, I think his 'ideal' would be a much better mix.

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7 minutes ago, Google Bot said:

I don't see Wagner inherently equating us to being light on young talent in a negative sense which most people allude to, as you say, we'd hopefully be light on raw untested talent but that's how it should be if you want to compete and not undermine yourself.  There's more chance of raising squad value when you're not getting twonked each week.

As I see it, this seasons approach was through necessity with Webber and Wagner developing a squad based on identifying last seasons weaknesses to address, all while targeting £20m of incoming player sales in the process.  (As he mentioned post Birmingham).

Rowe, McCallum, Sainz, Sarge, Sara and Nunez have all been really important players to us this season, all under 24.  And I see them all as young talent learning the league(s), but then I read that Wagner doesn't like youngsters which confuses me.

I know very little of Wagner's approach at Young Boys, but with Huddersfield I think of players such as Mooy, Wells, Kachunga, Wells, Palmer and Billing coming through, Ward in goal.  And none of those were old at the time either.

I really like Wagner, it's his in-game substitutions that frustrate me the most.  But he's done a great job with the players fit, i'd definitely keep him here if we fail in the playoffs.   Knapper has no established Sporting Director background and so I see no reason Wagner couldn't be 'his man' if the ideals fit.

However, I noted Wagner praising Webber a lot after the Brum game which could be due to Webber being hospitalised following his climb, but there was no praise towards Knapper there, so I think he may be done whatever happens end of season.

For me, where Wagner is lacking in youth development is that he has pretty much zero history of taking an academy player or under 21 and pushing them into first team football and massively developing them. 

At Huddersfield, the only player under 21 to get significant game time was Philip Billing, but he was already a regular in the team before Wagner arrived. Mooy and Wells were both 25 and Kachunga was 24. All had a decent number of games under their belts at the time and would be considered 'senior pros'. I don't think Wagner is against younger players, but he isn't a coach similar to someone like Farke, who is happy to take a risk on younger players. 

I will say that Wagner has done a good job with Rowe so I do give him some credit for that. 

Time will tell about the type of Sporting Director Knapper is, but player development is so key to Attanasio's vision that I suspect that Wagner is doomed in the long run. 

I don't read much into the praise of Webber and not Knapper - Webber was there to build the team and make those decisions so it is natural he gets credit. Also, given their friendship I think Wagner also wants to highlight to fans who have been on Webber's back for so long that he did a good job in the summer despite their views.

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1 minute ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

I don't think Wagner is against younger players, but he isn't a coach similar to someone like Farke, who is happy to take a risk on younger players. 

So are you making an observation on this, rather than a judgement?  

Maybe i'm a little more forward into what this means for us if we stuck with Wagner, as Farke's happiness in risking young players lead to him being over-encumbered and us embarrassed at prem league level.

Does it matter if a young player came through our academy and then directly into the hands of the head coach, versus them going from Academy to lower league loan and then into their hands of our head coach?

5 minutes ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

Time will tell about the type of Sporting Director Knapper is, but player development is so key to Attanasio's vision that I suspect that Wagner is doomed in the long run. 

Must admit, I presumed Attanasio's statistical strength was more catered towards players with known data in the professional game, i.e. the Buendia/Sara's of this world.   I hadn't really considered it's use at academy level.

I'm just trying to balance the hurt of that last prem season with what is our best approach moving forwards longer term I guess.

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On 02/05/2024 at 16:07, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

Tough one isn't it.

Knapper will want 'his man' in place, most Sporting Directors do. If Knapper had appointed Wagner I don't think anyone would really be questioning if he'd be around after the summer as he would be the coach Knapper picked, rather than inherited. 

Does Wagner fit with the soundbites we have heard from Attanasio and Knapper on style, youth players and player development? The easy and obvious answer is; no. 

Does this mean he'll definitely be sacked? Also, no. 

We don't know enough about Knapper yet to know how he'll go about business (or if Attanasio will be a much more vocal and interventionist owner than Delia and MWJ). If Knapper doesn't think Wagner is the right manager for the longterm then keeping hold of him for anything other than convenience is not great leadership. 

Ultimately, if the club want to develop this 'player trading model' that Attanasio has talked about on several occasions, having a coach with a pretty poor track record of using youth players, or developing senior players, isn't going to work out.

If there is going to be a big churn in the squad (which will almost certainly happen if promotion isn't achieved) that is the exact moment you want to replace the head coach. The worst decision would be for Norwich to undergo the squad overhaul, based on bringing in young, raw players to develop and then stick with Wagner when that isn't his forte. If Knapper isn't going to back Wagner with the squad he needs, and everyone isn't pulling in the same direction, then you need to make changes. 

 

Great post Bethnal and how I see it , as well as the snippets coming from the Club. 
 

Hard to see Wagner as in the style of Knapper.  BK is of the Arteta school of high energy pressing , passing through the lines and winning the ball back. Wagner is more pragmatic and gives (overdone in my opinion) more thought to how the opposition play . Obviously we have to cut our cloth. You can be more forceful with Jesus, Rice and Saka in your side. 
 

I think Wagner survived our poor run due to the Webber / Knapper changeover . I think he would have gone after the Blackburn game but there wasn’t anyone placed to do it. 
 

FFP will play a huge part next year if we don’t go up. We lose the third year allowable losses from our season in the prem and the parachutes . We will rely on the younger players when we take offers on Sara/Sargent/Rowe and Wagner has no record of bringing  these through . 
 

If we go up it will be hard to remove Wagner  but if we don’t think he is gone . 
 

 

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1 minute ago, Graham Paddons Beard said:

Great post Bethnal and how I see it , as well as the snippets coming from the Club. 
 

Hard to see Wagner as in the style of Knapper.  BK is of the Arteta school of high energy pressing , passing through the lines and winning the ball back. Wagner is more pragmatic and gives (overdone in my opinion) more thought to how the opposition play . Obviously we have to cut our cloth. You can be more forceful with Jesus, Rice and Saka in your side. 
 

I think Wagner survived our poor run due to the Webber / Knapper changeover . I think he would have gone after the Blackburn game but there wasn’t anyone placed to do it. 
 

FFP will play a huge part next year if we don’t go up. We lose the third year allowable losses from our season in the prem and the parachutes . We will rely on the younger players when we take offers on Sara/Sargent/Rowe and Wagner has no record of bringing  these through . 
 

If we go up it will be hard to remove Wagner  but if we don’t think he is gone . 
 

 

What will the impact of FFP be for us? I know we will be minus parachutes and players will be sold. Surely if knapper / Attanasio are eyeing up a player trading model though we will need to invest in replacements. Attanassio spoke previously about raising capital for knapper didn’t he? Hopefully we will hear more from both in the not too distant future .

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Soldier on said:

What will the impact of FFP be for us? I know we will be minus parachutes and players will be sold. Surely if knapper / Attanasio are eyeing up a player trading model though we will need to invest in replacements. Attanassio spoke previously about raising capital for knapper didn’t he? Hopefully we will hear more from both in the not too distant future .

I’m no expert but here goes. 
 

In the championship you are allowed to have a loss of £39m over three years. 
in the prem is is £35m in one year. Last year we had our third year back in the prem so we could account for a years loss of £35m . 
 

Next year we will only be allowed £39m losses over the last three years . The year we are about to enter will exclude any additional income from parachute . 
 

Upshot is that if everything were to remain the same , with the current squad and salaries we will likely be outside of our allowed losses . Therefore we are likely to need to sell before the season starts to make a gain on player trading. 
 

There are levels that owners are allowed to underwrite but if you go above these as Leicester Forest and Everton have then penalties apply 
 

 

Edited by Graham Paddons Beard

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34 minutes ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

For me, where Wagner is lacking in youth development is that he has pretty much zero history of taking an academy player or under 21 and pushing them into first team football and massively developing them.

You can only play ANY player if they are up to it. That is sorted at Colney, not Carrow Road. Wagner's previous would be determined by the quality of youth players available not his supposed aversion to them.

The decision as to who can step up is not taken solely by Wagner. It will in conjunction with the various coaches. And the idea that you can play a youth playrr so he can 'develop' is nonsense. Try telling a regular that he is being kept out to allow a youngster to 'develop', Try telling the rest of the team that you are fielding a weakened team to help youth players 'develop'.

It should be noted that all our outgoing loans are placed at clubs below the Championship. ie they are not up to Championship level. Fisher's time on the pitch is not one of 'developing' but cover. As with Gibbs to a degree. Which one of our midfield should we drop to allow Gibbs to 'develop'... Nunez, Sara, McLean ?

Perhaps we should drop Gunn so Barden or Reyes could  be developed. Or maybe the club/coaches/manager know what they are doing, instead

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8 minutes ago, RobJames said:

You can only play ANY player if they are up to it. That is sorted at Colney, not Carrow Road. Wagner's previous would be determined by the quality of youth players available not his supposed aversion to them.

The decision as to who can step up is not taken solely by Wagner. It will in conjunction with the various coaches. And the idea that you can play a youth playrr so he can 'develop' is nonsense. Try telling a regular that he is being kept out to allow a youngster to 'develop', Try telling the rest of the team that you are fielding a weakened team to help youth players 'develop'.

It should be noted that all our outgoing loans are placed at clubs below the Championship. ie they are not up to Championship level. Fisher's time on the pitch is not one of 'developing' but cover. As with Gibbs to a degree. Which one of our midfield should we drop to allow Gibbs to 'develop'... Nunez, Sara, McLean ?

Perhaps we should drop Gunn so Barden or Reyes could  be developed. Or maybe the club/coaches/manager know what they are doing, instead

 

8 minutes ago, RobJames said:

You can only play ANY player if they are up to it. That is sorted at Colney, not Carrow Road. Wagner's previous would be determined by the quality of youth players available not his supposed aversion to them.

The decision as to who can step up is not taken solely by Wagner. It will in conjunction with the various coaches. And the idea that you can play a youth playrr so he can 'develop' is nonsense. Try telling a regular that he is being kept out to allow a youngster to 'develop', Try telling the rest of the team that you are fielding a weakened team to help youth players 'develop'.

It should be noted that all our outgoing loans are placed at clubs below the Championship. ie they are not up to Championship level. Fisher's time on the pitch is not one of 'developing' but cover. As with Gibbs to a degree. Which one of our midfield should we drop to allow Gibbs to 'develop'... Nunez, Sara, McLean ?

Perhaps we should drop Gunn so Barden or Reyes could  be developed. Or maybe the club/coaches/manager know what they are doing, instead

Surely we should be more alarmed at the lack of minutes given to a really promising striker in Ken Aboh. Ultimately likely to lead to him refusing a new contract and leaving the football club this summer . Surely he could have been given a chance on the occasions Sargent has been substituted with an ineffective Barnes being asked to lead the line ?

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1 hour ago, Google Bot said:

So are you making an observation on this, rather than a judgement?  

Maybe i'm a little more forward into what this means for us if we stuck with Wagner, as Farke's happiness in risking young players lead to him being over-encumbered and us embarrassed at prem league level.

Does it matter if a young player came through our academy and then directly into the hands of the head coach, versus them going from Academy to lower league loan and then into their hands of our head coach?

Must admit, I presumed Attanasio's statistical strength was more catered towards players with known data in the professional game, i.e. the Buendia/Sara's of this world.   I hadn't really considered it's use at academy level.

I'm just trying to balance the hurt of that last prem season with what is our best approach moving forwards longer term I guess.

From observing Wagner's track record, and his soundbites, it seems he isn't a manager who takes risks, in tactics, subs or youth players. I get that as this job was very much make or break for him. Huddersfield was a long time ago and he had been perceived to have failed at Schalke and Young Boys. 

Ultimately, the club will have to balance that if Wagner provides enough of an upside through results or style to outweigh the downside of  not being a coach with a great track record of developing youth/academy players. All this considering how much he costs to remove. Many coaches, especially on rolling contracts, have break clauses in their contracts that come into effect in the post-season which allow them to be removed for a smaller payout (or smaller compensation if another team wants to poach them). 

 

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5 minutes ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

From observing Wagner's track record, and his soundbites, it seems he isn't a manager who takes risks, in tactics, subs or youth players. I get that as this job was very much make or break for him. Huddersfield was a long time ago and he had been perceived to have failed at Schalke and Young Boys. 

Ultimately, the club will have to balance that if Wagner provides enough of an upside through results or style to outweigh the downside of  not being a coach with a great track record of developing youth/academy players. All this considering how much he costs to remove. Many coaches, especially on rolling contracts, have break clauses in their contracts that come into effect in the post-season which allow them to be removed for a smaller payout (or smaller compensation if another team wants to poach them). 

 

Reminds me a bit of how Alex Neil got towards the end of his time here- he'd rather play a senior pro out of position than risk a youth player which isn't ideal for how our club is run. People will say the young players just aren't ready but I really doubt Wagner would have seen Aarons or Lewis ready.

Farke's willingness to risk young players paid off for us to the tune of £60/70m in player sales across Godfrey, Lewis, Aarons, Omobamidele and Josh Murphy. 

Being willing to blood the younger players isn't something the club can afford to be optional really.

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Abu Kamara is another interesting one for knapper. If he doesn’t sign a new deal he will presumably be sold this summer (1 year left)

can he trust Wagner to use him properly ?

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4 minutes ago, Soldier on said:

Abu Kamara is another interesting one for knapper. If he doesn’t sign a new deal he will presumably be sold this summer (1 year left)

can he trust Wagner to use him properly ?

Norwich have a one year option, so he is effectively contracted until 2026. Suspect he'll sign a new contract this summer.

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11 minutes ago, king canary said:

Reminds me a bit of how Alex Neil got towards the end of his time here- he'd rather play a senior pro out of position than risk a youth player which isn't ideal for how our club is run. People will say the young players just aren't ready but I really doubt Wagner would have seen Aarons or Lewis ready.

Farke's willingness to risk young players paid off for us to the tune of £60/70m in player sales across Godfrey, Lewis, Aarons, Omobamidele and Josh Murphy. 

Being willing to blood the younger players isn't something the club can afford to be optional really.

Godfrey & Aarons (also Buendia & Cantwell) were only given their chance in a non-parachute season (i.e. the club's need to slash payroll left them with little choice)

You have to look very hard indeed to find a Manager who will blood multiple youngsters while fighting for PL survival or in year one of parachute payments. 

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5 hours ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

If Norwich go up there is no way Wagner goes. 

I would imagine the overhaul would be less pronounced if promoted tbh. Mainly as players like Sara, Sargent and Rowe would definitely be staying. I also suspect that the strategy if promoted would align more with how Wagner would want his squad to look. Lighter on young talent and more established players. 

I suspect Norwich would look to what Brighton did after they were promoted with Hughtom. They brought in players in their late/mid twenties to make an immediate contribution before leaning into younger players to flip for profit should they manage to stay up. If Norwich don't get promoted I suspect they will move to this model quicker. Not that it means it will be an entire starting XI of young players, just that it will be more of the focus. 

Please substitute the word 'definitely' and replace with 'may', or 'hopefully' or 'could well'. Very bold statement to say said players WILL be staying. Remember last time we were promoted? 

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I suppose then. blooding youngsters is where Klopp got it wrong this season?

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14 minutes ago, yellowrider120 said:

Please substitute the word 'definitely' and replace with 'may', or 'hopefully' or 'could well'. Very bold statement to say said players WILL be staying. Remember last time we were promoted? 

Club didn't have a very rich American on the board then - I imagine even if not promoted Norwich will keep hold of Sargent and possibly Rowe.

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15 minutes ago, NewNestCarrow said:

Godfrey & Aarons (also Buendia & Cantwell) were only given their chance in a non-parachute season (i.e. the club's need to slash payroll left them with little choice)

You have to look very hard indeed to find a Manager who will blood multiple youngsters while fighting for PL survival or in year one of parachute payments. 

The club was left with plenty of choice?

Aarons particularly- we had signed Ben Marshall and Felix Passlack that summer and Ivo Pinto was still on the books. Aarons was pushed through because Farke wanted him to play not because it was forced on him by necessity. Same with Lewis, who Farke immediately wanted to play but was injured before he got the chance. 

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15 minutes ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

Club didn't have a very rich American on the board then - I imagine even if not promoted Norwich will keep hold of Sargent and possibly Rowe.

God praying you will be proved accurate. Forgive me if I dont share the optimism. 

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13 minutes ago, king canary said:

The club was left with plenty of choice?

Aarons particularly- we had signed Ben Marshall and Felix Passlack that summer and Ivo Pinto was still on the books. Aarons was pushed through because Farke wanted him to play not because it was forced on him by necessity. Same with Lewis, who Farke immediately wanted to play but was injured before he got the chance. 

Maybe I should have said "less choice".  That doesn't change the overall point.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

Strong implication then that Sara will be off should we fail to go up.

I'd expect so. Sounds like quite a few Premier League teams, and some from other European top flight leagues, have been keeping an eye on him this season. The fact he has played so many minutes and given high levels of performance will push him up some lists. Lots of teams were watching him before he moved to Norwich, but weren't convinced he could step up a level, two good seasons in the Championship will convince many he can.

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22 minutes ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

I'd expect so. Sounds like quite a few Premier League teams, and some from other European top flight leagues, have been keeping an eye on him this season. The fact he has played so many minutes and given high levels of performance will push him up some lists. Lots of teams were watching him before he moved to Norwich, but weren't convinced he could step up a level, two good seasons in the Championship will convince many he can.

Would imagine Rowe the most likely to go this summer as his contract is running down. I predict we sell Rowe and Sara and probably Gunn and keep Sargent .

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9 minutes ago, Soldier on said:

Would imagine Rowe the most likely to go this summer as his contract is running down. I predict we sell Rowe and Sara and probably Gunn and keep Sargent .

I struggle to see who in the Prem would be willing to make Norwich an offer they would be tempted to sell.

Rowe has had already had one injury that kept him out for an entire season and picked up a couple more this season meaning he was only available for about half of the available minutes. Does a club make a big offer for a player off the back of half a season?

Especially when you add into the injury worries that his underlying performance numbers aren't amazing, I can see a lot of clubs not taking the risk.

Given his contract runs until 2026 if the club activate their option then there isn't a pressing need for him to be sold this summer for cheap. Maybe a Prem clubs offers the £18m to get him, but I think most would say they want to see at least another 6 months of football from him before making such an offer.

I can't see who buys Gunn either to be honest. His level is top Championship/lower Prem, and I just don't think there is anyone in that bracket who is in the market that will pay the fee Norwich want for him. Especially when his previous go at the Prem was fairly disastrous for him.

 

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2 hours ago, king canary said:

Reminds me a bit of how Alex Neil got towards the end of his time here- he'd rather play a senior pro out of position than risk a youth player which isn't ideal for how our club is run. People will say the young players just aren't ready but I really doubt Wagner would have seen Aarons or Lewis ready.

Farke's willingness to risk young players paid off for us to the tune of £60/70m in player sales across Godfrey, Lewis, Aarons, Omobamidele and Josh Murphy. 

Being willing to blood the younger players isn't something the club can afford to be optional really.

You and @Bethnal Yellow and Green make good points.

Ultimately they're relatively unarguable, but you know me, I love a challenge 😉

Nah, I like Wagner and i'd keep him next season if it was my decision. But the flip-side is if he isn't fully aligned with Knapper then there is no point. I also think it makes it really hard to judge if Knapper is a success or failure here. From his point of view I suspect he'd much prefer to fall on his own sword than potentially fail and wonder if it's because he kept a head coach that wasn't in his style or suitability.

If Knapper removes Wagner, brings in his own man, his own players, he can be judged on his own merit. It may not be my personal choice but I can see why that's the best move for the club in terms of utilising the Sporting Director we've now got. I have reservations that he'll deliver anything better than we've had but that's not really the point, I guess.

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4 minutes ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

I struggle to see who in the Prem would be willing to make Norwich an offer they would be tempted to sell.

Rowe has had already had one injury that kept him out for an entire season and picked up a couple more this season meaning he was only available for about half of the available minutes. Does a club make a big offer for a player off the back of half a season?

Especially when you add into the injury worries that his underlying performance numbers aren't amazing, I can see a lot of clubs not taking the risk.

Given his contract runs until 2026 if the club activate their option then there isn't a pressing need for him to be sold this summer for cheap. Maybe a Prem clubs offers the £18m to get him, but I think most would say they want to see at least another 6 months of football from him before making such an offer.

I can't see who buys Gunn either to be honest. His level is top Championship/lower Prem, and I just don't think there is anyone in that bracket who is in the market that will pay the fee Norwich want for him. Especially when his previous go at the Prem was fairly disastrous for him.

 

Completely agree on the market for Gunn.

We'd likely be looking for £8m+ for him and his Premier League track record means he'll have a big question mark next to his name if anyone is after him. Only way I could see him moving is if a newly relegated team wanted to add a top Championship keeper but Burnley spent big on Trafford last year, Sheffield United are a basket case and is a move to Luton all that attractive?

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29 minutes ago, hogesar said:

You and @Bethnal Yellow and Green make good points.

Ultimately they're relatively unarguable, but you know me, I love a challenge 😉

Nah, I like Wagner and i'd keep him next season if it was my decision. But the flip-side is if he isn't fully aligned with Knapper then there is no point. I also think it makes it really hard to judge if Knapper is a success or failure here. From his point of view I suspect he'd much prefer to fall on his own sword than potentially fail and wonder if it's because he kept a head coach that wasn't in his style or suitability.

If Knapper removes Wagner, brings in his own man, his own players, he can be judged on his own merit. It may not be my personal choice but I can see why that's the best move for the club in terms of utilising the Sporting Director we've now got. I have reservations that he'll deliver anything better than we've had but that's not really the point, I guess.

Hopefully Gunn signs a new deal as he only has one year left. I think the Leicester manager is a fan from City days 

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6 hours ago, king canary said:

There is a difference between bringing through young players from the academy and playing players who are a bit younger.

Sainz- 40 games in La Liga and 30+ in the top Turkish division before he joined us.

Nunez- an established Chilean international before he joined us

Sara- 70 odd games in the Brazilian top flight before he joined

Sargent- US international, nearly 100 odd top flight appearances before Wagner was his manager.

Rowe is really the only player he can claim to have developed since he's been here. Playing a bunch of 23/24 year olds with lots of experience isn't the same as developing youngsters.

Just as well really that MA and Knapper want to develop a player trading model then, buying and selling players, rather than relying on the production line to keep churning out a saleable asset.

Brentford and Brighton do just this, buy young players and polish them up. Has kept them in the top tier.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Soldier on said:

Hopefully Gunn signs a new deal as he only has one year left. I think the Leicester manager is a fan from City days 

I don't think Maresca was at Man City until 2020, and Angus Gunn left them in 2018.

However I did notice Maresca and Gunn having a lengthy chat after our last game with them, that did worry me! 

Edited by JonnyJonnyRowe

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