Blind Optimism?

[ged in the onion bag 855]

3 hours ago, RobJames said:

Not sure where you are going with that, neither do you I suspect.

Yes it is, and has to be, short-termism.  If we don't go up this season, we are probably facing around £50m less in 2023/4. It is not about 'confidence' it is about winning. We would 'waste this season' if we were to embark on players being in the first team.... because they are young. That does nothing for them or the club. Players do NOT develop in the first team. They are picked when they have developed and are up to the level needed. Hence Gibbs being in the team, and Springett out on loan. Or perhaps we should drop Sgt and play Kamara instead.

That looming possibility of no promotion next  May is not something the club are unaware of. That's why a number of promising youngsters have been signed. Why a number are out on season long loans. Make or break. Fisher is judged to be up o the level needed, so first team squad. That is how it works, you do not use the first team as a 'hatchery'.

I know for sure.     I absolutely understand your point and appreciate what your saying.   What you describe is the way it usually works, I am aware of that, how its always been but top level football isn't the same anymore, not for us.    It's not all about the sport, its moved on and we are in a never ending cycle where we are desparate for the money, money that has made very little difference this last two occasions.     We don't want to be the club that everyone dislikes, little ol' Norwich, that everyone thinks doesn't try, that gets trounced and can't compete, but we are at the moment.   Unless fans have a short memory, the last promotion was a total embarrassment.

Take Forest, they spent £300m last season on promotion and just managed to survive.    For how long will be interesting but thats what they had to do to compete.

Take Burnley, they spent some money last season replacing pretty much their entire squad and did some very astute recruitment plus the manager set them up very well.   They have gone up, not lost the best players and have spent £80m on new players to give improve the squad, give themselves a chance.    The nucleus of their first XI last season had vibrant players with potential to improve and they did too.  They go up with potential to develop further.    They had loads of creativity and produced exciting football similar to Farke, but then they spent £80m when they got promoted.   They released the players they thought weren't good enough and we obliged in taking one of those on.    If they don't think he's good enough this season, then why would he be good enough next when hes another year past it?   

Compare that with our team.    If this squad get promoted the experienced players (Barnes, Duffy, Hanley) are generally too old and past it and many of the others, McLean, Stacey, Hanley, Gibson, Giannoulis, Sargent and Hernandez who it seems currently form our best XI have all had a go at the EPL and generally failed miserably.    None of these have potential to develop further, they've reached their ceiling!    

So if we get promoted, what happens then?     How do we get to a position of having a competitive team without £300m?

It's not the same for us, we can't compete on the same playing field as every other EPL team so we need to do it differently.  Surely you can see that!    What has the previous two seasons done for us financially?    We have no money and have sold our best players, we're not better off financially and the team has declined.    So what's the point of promotion?   

Now had we realised this last season, recognised the squad wasn't good enough for promotion, (it wasn't and I expressed these views then as well), they could have developed some players and even a system to suit then and we would probably have still been 13th.    There is enough quality with a mix of experience and youth.     But they didn't, they chose to desparately chase promotion, left out Gibbs, Omobamidele, Sorensen, McCallum and others, played Idah and Sargent out of position and they didn't progress either individually or collectively.    Season wasted and now you argue we only have a season to get promoted.    What's the point.    We get promoted, aren't competitive, everyone gets frustrated we come back down with no money and around we go again!   

Of course players develop in the first team.   Yes, only so many at any time and they need experience around them but we have to speculate so that (for example) Gibbs might become better than McLean sooner, so that Omo is ahead of Gibson, McCallum is an improvement on Giannoulis who has many faults etc... we have to continually improve the squad, its the only way without money.  Our coaches need to be able to get the most from them but be patient for results too.    Football, like life is about learning, progressing.    Didn't Man Utd famously play a 'load of kids'.    

I think there's plenty of valid and rational points in there.    If you're going to reply, please answer the questions, address the points logically, give something evidence based to suggest how promotion might work.     You might want to bear in mind our recruitment record also.  

Edited August 2, 2023 by ged in the onion bag

[hogesar 9,676]

12 hours ago, ged in the onion bag said:

 

Take Burnley, they spent some money last season replacing pretty much their entire squad and did some very astute recruitment plus the manager set them up very well.   They have gone up, not lost the best players and have spent £80m on new players to give improve the squad, give themselves a chance.    The nucleus of their first XI last season had vibrant players with potential to improve and they did too.  They go up with potential to develop further.    They had loads of creativity and produced exciting football similar to Farke, but then they spent £80m when they got promoted.   They released the players they thought weren't good enough and we obliged in taking one of those on.    If they don't think he's good enough this season, then why would he be good enough next when hes another year past it?   

 

But Ged, you always criticise us for utilising the loan market in this division.

Burnley loaned Harwood-Bellis, Maatsen, Beyer, Obafemi, Dervisoglu and Tella.

You were critical for just the loan signing of Skipp.

I'm not sure you can then use them as an example?

 

[ged in the onion bag 855]

2 hours ago, hogesar said:

But Ged, you always criticise us for utilising the loan market in this division.

Burnley loaned Harwood-Bellis, Maatsen, Beyer, Obafemi, Dervisoglu and Tella.

You were critical for just the loan signing of Skipp.

I'm not sure you can then use them as an example?

 

I used Burnley for example as some fans on here have used it to support using the loan system!    Like I say, we aren’t like other teams for the reasons given.   We won’t spend millions and millions and our squad is nowhere near good enough for a promotion.    Loans might help but what then when they return to their clubs next summer.
 

Burnley haven’t succeeded yet either and we’ve no idea how it will go but I suspect they will do better than 21 points.    
 

Other than being patient and building a squad what other option is there.    Address the questions I raised in the post.   
 

How do we become competitive on a promotion?    How do we get out of this cycle?    Where’s all that promotion money gone, where’s the team gone?   Why are we operating on a basis that the money is the be all and end all?    Do you seriously think we can get promoted this season and that these players individually and the squad generally could compete with the addition of say 5 new players obtained on the cheap?   
 

Not a chance!

To say we’ll worry about that then is just stupid because another failure will be a much bigger disaster for the club internally and externally.    Players will start to steer clear then if they know we aren’t ambitious enough.    
 

One thing to say you’re ambitious, another to demonstrate it and we have to do it without money.    I’m all for that if there is a pattern of learning and improving but unfortunately there isn’t.   
 

Edit - actually Hoggy, is that the only snippet you can pick out from that post?   Disappointing!   We were both long standing supporters of the clubs direction, but it’s changed, in my view they’ve lost their way and need to get back to what it was, but learn the lessons, which is what they failed to do.   

Edited August 2, 2023 by ged in the onion bag

[yellowrider120 763]

On 01/08/2023 at 11:45, norfolkngood said:

I Have not seen any Pre season but for me a weak point for us was the soft centre midfield last season ,

Not going forward i think that suits Mclean and Sara i might add but Defensively ,

Now Wagner has set up with two CM and No CDM in a 442 or a 4411 with barnes deeper 

i think that might be a big mistake , 

i asked Hog who watched them and he said Barnes spotted danger and dropped in and the two CM's were not pulled all over the pitch and it worked  , So hopefully that is the right tactic 

Wagner seems to want all round midfielders in there which is fine but 2 instead of 3 ? ,

but i think in this league a good CDM sitting at the base of Midfield is all you need to let the other two Mclean and Sara push forward ,

it depends if barnes has the legs to do a No 10 and cover if CM is caught out ,

of course we have more going forward in a 442 /4411 and defence is stronger more solid so until i see it that is my doubt ,

Also Wagner for me has so much to prove after showing so little last season 

 

 

Totally agree about the desperate need for a CDM. All this stuff about............'we don't need one because we now play a different system' may be proved a fallacy I fear. We are still going to play two centre backs are we not? To begin with said players are likely to be Gibson and Duffy who are beset by lack of pace (and certainly in the case of the former, have a recurring habit of getting caught in possession and giving the ball away!). A decent CDM who has pace and can read the game with intelligence and (most crucially) can spot 'runners' and track said runs is invaluable. Look how Skipp improved our defence in second promotion season.

The Wagner plan (it seems) is to play Sara and L Mayor with one 'sitting' whilst the other 'bombs on'. Problem is neither has proper defensive qualities and both are in fact both far more suited to mode advanced roles. I am very concerned that this plan may quickly unravel. Lets hope Herr Wagner can make it work.        

[norfolkngood 1,087]

1 hour ago, yellowrider120 said:

Totally agree about the desperate need for a CDM. All this stuff about............'we don't need one because we now play a different system' may be proved a fallacy I fear. We are still going to play two centre backs are we not? To begin with said players are likely to be Gibson and Duffy who are beset by lack of pace (and certainly in the case of the former, have a recurring habit of getting caught in possession and giving the ball away!). A decent CDM who has pace and can read the game with intelligence and (most crucially) can spot 'runners' and track said runs is invaluable. Look how Skipp improved our defence in second promotion season.

The Wagner plan (it seems) is to play Sara and L Mayor with one 'sitting' whilst the other 'bombs on'. Problem is neither has proper defensive qualities and both are in fact both far more suited to mode advanced roles. I am very concerned that this plan may quickly unravel. Lets hope Herr Wagner can make it work.        

Exactly you put it better than Me !! 

The CDM with pace is so valuable the drop into screen CB's and to pick up those loose balls ,

Mclean and Sara instinct is to move forward they will get caught against a good midfield ,

that is my worry about Wagner he comes up some ideas and says things that are concern ,

we will see if this works pretty quickly my thoughts are we will see 3 in midfield pretty quickly and we will not have bought a CDM .

[chicken 2,627]

On 01/08/2023 at 10:12, S_81 said:

Sargeant is no peak Pukki, is no Holt; no Earnshaw, no Ashton, no Sutton, no Robins etc etc. 

Worse than Drmic or Srebny? Certainly not. But he’s nowhere near the level we’ve had during some seasons. That was my point. 

Rediculous statement.

Earnshaw was no Holt. Holt was no Ashton. Pukki was none of those either.

More importantly, I think only Ashton was a similar age. And IMHO, Ashton was probably as close to world class I think I have seen wear yellow and green in my lifetime. He could be Holt/Pukki/Earnshaw in the same game. Only that injury prevented us from seeing what his actual true pinacle was. Gutted for him.

Sargent has already done more than Holt at this point in Holt's career, same as Pukki. Ues, he may not rise to the point they made it, but Pukki never quite hit the premier league in the same way Holt did.

But it's all irrelevent. This will be Sargent's first season as our striker, not a part time striker playing on the wing.

[sgncfc 1,228]

Its strange that Burnley, Sheff Utd, Luton and Forest before them all relied heavily on loans - 4 or 5 of them. Middlesbro too, last season. We don't do that. Why not?  We always seem to have a maximum of two - neither of whom are first choices. It's a cheap way of getting promoted (apparently) but we still seem to spend on signing on fees/transfer fees and 3 or 4 year contracts.

Why?

As usual we are left with one or two jewels and a bunch of jouneymen. The jewels want to move on so they can play with better players and we start all over again. I think it was Dale Carnegie who said something about doing the same things and expecting different results.....

[shefcanary 2,409]

10 hours ago, sgncfc said:

Its strange that Burnley, Sheff Utd, Luton and Forest before them all relied heavily on loans - 4 or 5 of them. Middlesbro too, last season. We don't do that. Why not?  We always seem to have a maximum of two - neither of whom are first choices. It's a cheap way of getting promoted (apparently) but we still seem to spend on signing on fees/transfer fees and 3 or 4 year contracts.

Why?

As usual we are left with one or two jewels and a bunch of jouneymen. The jewels want to move on so they can play with better players and we start all over again. I think it was Dale Carnegie who said something about doing the same things and expecting different results.....

This goes against the criticism raised by @ged in the onion bag about not supporting our younger players more, getting them into the team and developing them over a couple of seasons, ignoring the noise about trying to get immediate promotion to the EPL. Perhaps this is where the club is focussing this year? The noise from the Pink'Un boys in their latest podcast seems to be suggesting we should not see promotion as a potential this year, which in part will be informed by whispers emerging from Colney.

On the other hand, the loans market traditionally doesn't heat up until after the EPL season kicks off and the big boys have finished their analysis of pre-season training and how their squad is going to fit together. We could well see another 2-3 loans in before the end of August! Certainly the three clubs you mention were still trading in the loans market right up to the deadline before finalising their squads.

Edited August 3, 2023 by shefcanary

[......and Smith must score. 1,343]

On 01/08/2023 at 08:27, lake district canary said:

I'm finding it had to be positive about the prospects for this season, it just feels as if we are on a bit of a downer, after the Smith debacle and then Wagner's bad run at the end of last season. Things can change and anything can happen, but I don't see where the inspiration is going to come from.

We need lots of things to go right - Sargent to find his goal touch - Idah to get his game to click into place - Fassnacht to hit the ground running - Nunez to find some form - Sara to be 100% at it every game - Mclean to be on his best form - Duffy to be an inspiration - Gibson to become the player he can be - etc etc - but I suppose the real question is how to escape the rut that we seem to have got ourselves into in the last two seasons - and that is where Wagner comes in - has he got the depth of character to turn it round?  We'll see, but I'm not wildly optimistic. 

B*oody hell Lakey you’re not positive about this season’s prospects ? How times change.

But congrats are in order for managing to write a whole post without using the ‘ F ‘ word ( but then you’ve gone and spoilt it all in a post further down the thread ) 

Big smile 

 

[ged in the onion bag 855]

20 hours ago, sgncfc said:

Its strange that Burnley, Sheff Utd, Luton and Forest before them all relied heavily on loans - 4 or 5 of them. Middlesbro too, last season. We don't do that. Why not?  We always seem to have a maximum of two - neither of whom are first choices. It's a cheap way of getting promoted (apparently) but we still seem to spend on signing on fees/transfer fees and 3 or 4 year contracts.

Why?

As usual we are left with one or two jewels and a bunch of jouneymen. The jewels want to move on so they can play with better players and we start all over again. I think it was Dale Carnegie who said something about doing the same things and expecting different results.....

10 hours ago, shefcanary said:

This goes against the criticism raised by @ged in the onion bag about not supporting our younger players more, getting them into the team and developing them over a couple of seasons, ignoring the noise about trying to get immediate promotion to the EPL. Perhaps this is where the club is focussing this year? The noise from the Pink'Un boys in their latest podcast seems to be suggesting we should not see promotion as a potential this year, which in part will be informed by whispers emerging from Colney.

On the other hand, the loans market traditionally doesn't heat up until after the EPL season kicks off and the big boys have finished their analysis of pre-season training and how their squad is going to fit together. We could well see another 2-3 loans in before the end of August! Certainly the three clubs you mention were still trading in the loans market right up to the deadline before finalising their squads.

I am not against using the loan system if it fits with circumstances.    It doesn’t suit our situation because of finances.   Loaning in that is.    Loaning experienced players would help others develop but developing youngsters for other clubs doesn’t help as we can’t sign them anyway.    The ones we have signed following loans Gibson and Giannoulis have proved inadequate at EPL level anyway, that’s not great recruitment when they were intended for the EPL.
 

The crux is what then happens on promotion.    None of us want to experience the last time again, to see us being non-competitive.  We were all tormented by it.  
 

Forest spent £300m, Fulham have money, Bournemouth had plenty of experience mixed with pace and some quality and could compete. Burnley have spent over £60m already.   We just can’t do that even when we sell our best players unless we spread it too thin.    Even Kompany has said they lost 5 players so have had to spend just to get back to last seasons level.      Sheff Utd and Luton haven’t spent and are likely to struggle, will be a miracle if they don’t.   Fair enough if it’s the one time, but twice now we’ve failed to compete.    Fair enough if the EPL money helps but we keep getting relegated skint!    Now though, the teams declined and we have very little quality in it. 

Let’s face it, without money if we want something sustainable over many years rather than the possible occasional visit to get trounced, we have to develop, be clever, astute, plan long-term and be patient.    Sadly, we are chasing the money again instead, so if we don’t get promoted we will have lost another season and will be further away.  If we did get promoted, how do we compete?   We’d need a new team as most of this one isn’t up to it.  We won’t compete.    It’s farcical to follow this route without money.   That’s why I’ve become disappointed by the way the clubs run now.   There’s no apparent plan, desperation for that money has set in and we’re stuck in a cycle.    

That first promotion, we really weren’t far away from cracking the code, but the club made mistakes and lost its way.    They’ve been stuck in the headlights since.

 

[Worthy Nigelton 1,049]

@ged in the onion bag posts are far too long. I cant be bothered to read them.

[ged in the onion bag 855]

2 minutes ago, Worthy Nigelton said:

@ged in the onion bag posts are far too long. I cant be bothered to read them.

That’s absolutely fine Nige.   

[lake district canary 4,531]

10 hours ago, ......and Smith must score. said:

B*oody hell Lakey you’re not positive about this season’s prospects ? How times change.

But congrats are in order for managing to write a whole post without using the ‘ F ‘ word ( but then you’ve gone and spoilt it all in a post further down the thread ) 

Big smile

The bubble of positivity I've had since 2009 that left with the "F" word's sacking just hasn't returned and probaby like most fans, I need to see something from the players to inspire me again. Football goes through different eras, like the Saunders/Bond/Brown/Stringer/Walker era - amazing 20+ years of continuity - and for me the roller coaster era that started with Lambert, then Hughton/Adams/Neil/Farke has ended - and it may take a while to get another one started.....

........or maybe I've just returmed to planet earth and smelled the coffee.......

😀

[Capt. Pants 4,236]

I'm currently in the mind just to try and enjoy the games as they come and set aside the obsession with promotion for now.

It feels we're in limbo on an off the pitch so anything could happen really but fundamentally the team needs to build some identity whether it's free flowing football (unlikely) or grinding out results and being hard to beat (seems to be the aim).

I just hope we can see a few wins at Carrow Rd as that's where the feelgood factor needs to start from.

 

[Yellowhammer 86]

Big mistake letting mumba go,  will regret that , don’t really see us more than mid table again still don’t have a good striker . 

[Worthy Nigelton 1,049]

How are people feeling about my blind optimism now?