Deja vu Dean Smith

[It's Character Forming 1,167]

Interesting article here about the relegation contenders.  If Leicester lose their next game at Newcastle and Everton beat Wolves, then Leicester are down, so yeah, they're in big trouble.

 

Premier League relegation run-in: Which teams will drop into Championship? - BBC Sport

[norfolkngood 1,092]

If people think Smith is one of the worst managers we have had (and i agree )

why is it Wagner is on a run of one win in eleven and some fans think he can turn it around ! 

i hear all this he needs his own players 

he needs a pre season 

players are not fit enough for his style 

i hear a lot of excuses about Wagner 

but other managers have proven (Warnock ) you can if good enough get results 

 

[dylanisabaddog 5,015]

20 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Interesting article here about the relegation contenders.  If Leicester lose their next game at Newcastle and Everton beat Wolves, then Leicester are down, so yeah, they're in big trouble.

 

Premier League relegation run-in: Which teams will drop into Championship? - BBC Sport

It is beginning to look like Southampton, Leeds and Leicester. At least we'll have some decent games to look forward to next season. 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,604]

3 hours ago, king canary said:

It is also impossible to know that we wouldn't have gotten relegated under Smith.

All we can is look at the evidence, none of which pointed to us going up with Smith (or down obviously, I'm just being hyperbolic).

A nine-game unbeaten run definitely counted as evidence that the team had it in them to string results together, whatever people thought of how many marks out of 10 they merited for style. That in itself was turning around a bad start to the season and it's just plain wrong to say there was no evidence.

And another point is people are talking about how he's doing going in at the deep end inheriting Premier League relegation scraps from other managers, which is hardly a like for like comparison. Yet people state Farke was 'ten times' the manager, completely ignoring his failures in the Premier League were coming in at the starts of the season with teams constructed with his input.

Edited May 16, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Google Bot 3,329]

24 minutes ago, norfolkngood said:

why is it Wagner is on a run of one win in eleven and some fans think he can turn it around !

Because unlike Smith he has a good connection with supporters at this club.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,604]

Just now, Google Bot said:

Because unlike Smith he has a good connection with supporters at this club.

It's all about clapping the fans apparently.

[Midlands Yellow 4,107]

2 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

A nine-game unbeaten run definitely counted as evidence that the team had it in them to string results together, whatever people thought of how many marks out of 10 they merited for style. Add to that that that in itself was turning around a bad start to the season and it's just plain wrong to say there was no evidence.

And another point is people are talking about how he's doing igoing in at the deep end inheriting Premier League relegation scraps from other managers, which is hardly a like for like comparison.

The best he’ll get after leaving Leicester is a very low level Championship club or one in League one. Let’s be honest, that’s his level. 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,604]

Just now, Midlands Yellow said:

The best he’ll get after leaving Leicester is a very low level Championship club or one in League one. Let’s be honest, that’s his level. 

That's what people said when he left Norwich.

[Midlands Yellow 4,107]

Just now, littleyellowbirdie said:

That's what people said when he left Norwich.

I think the Shakespeare factor (who’d had some success at the KP) was key in appointing Smith. Nice bloke but but a truly awful head coach. 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,604]

1 minute ago, Midlands Yellow said:

I think the Shakespeare factor (who’d had some success at the KP) was key in appointing Smith. Nice bloke but but a truly awful head coach. 

Plenty of positive stuff in his record says he's not an awful head coach.

I think the big lesson of both Smith and Wagner is that we're better off bringing in managers who are complete unknowns so there are less holes to be picked by those that enjoy doing it before anything has happened.

Edited May 16, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Google Bot 3,329]

Just now, littleyellowbirdie said:

It's all about clapping the fans apparently.

It's part of it, just as any relationship where you show your partner or friends respect.  Goes a long way.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,604]

1 minute ago, Google Bot said:

It's part of it, just as any relationship where you show your partner or friends respect.  Goes a long way.

It wouldn't have gone any way at all. Look at the reception to Farke's communications when we weren't winning. He got the usual rants as well, regardless of what he was doing or saying. Anything he said was put under a microscope and torn apart.

Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Edited May 16, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Midlands Yellow 4,107]

1 minute ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Plenty of positive stuff in his record says he's not an awful head coach.

I think the big lesson of both Smith and Wagner is that we're better off bringing in managers who are complete unknowns so there are less holes to be picked by those that enjoy doing it before anything has happened.

Not really. Did a half decent job at Brentford (nothing special) but ultimately failed at Villa. Was crap here and just as bad at Leicester. No top flight club is touching Smith in the summer. 

[Indy 3,323]

33 minutes ago, norfolkngood said:

If people think Smith is one of the worst managers we have had (and i agree )

why is it Wagner is on a run of one win in eleven and some fans think he can turn it around ! 

i hear all this he needs his own players 

he needs a pre season 

players are not fit enough for his style 

i hear a lot of excuses about Wagner 

but other managers have proven (Warnock ) you can if good enough get results 

 

I don’t disagree, but financially we’re in a little bit of a pickle and not very attractive to managers who would command compensation like Robins or Russell!

So unfortunately our pool to pick from has diminished a little and Wagner is definitely under performing in my book but I can’t see any other option unless Robins or such like walk away from their clubs first.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,604]

2 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

Not really. Did a half decent job at Brentford (nothing special) but ultimately failed at Villa. Was crap here and just as bad at Leicester. No top flight club is touching Smith in the summer. 

He didn't fail at Villa. He was sacked having got them promoted and delivered survival in the first season. He was sacked when they weren't even in the relegation zone, it was simply that the board's expectations were higher than where they were. His successor didn't really improve on it either.

We lost Ramsey because Ramsey didn't want to be here if Smith wasn't. Nobody does that for an 'awful' manager.

Edited May 16, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Indy 3,323]

Just now, littleyellowbirdie said:

He didn't fail at Villa. He was sacked having got them promoted and delivered survival in the first season. He was sacked when they weren't even in the relegation zone.

Which is failing isn’t it?

[littleyellowbirdie 2,604]

3 minutes ago, Indy said:

Which is failing isn’t it?

No; it's just not meeting others' expectations. There's no way of saying if the expectations were reasonable or not. The fact his successor didn't do better suggests the expectations weren't on target.

Edited May 16, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[king canary 7,680]

12 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

A nine-game unbeaten run definitely counted as evidence that the team had it in them to string results together, whatever people thought of how many marks out of 10 they merited for style. That in itself was turning around a bad start to the season and it's just plain wrong to say there was no evidence.

And another point is people are talking about how he's doing going in at the deep end inheriting Premier League relegation scraps from other managers, which is hardly a like for like comparison. Yet people state Farke was 'ten times' the manager, completely ignoring his failures in the Premier League were coming in at the starts of the season with teams constructed with his input.

The 9 game run is no more evidence than all the other games though is it? It's no more likely that that run was the norm than the final 10 games of his time here was.

In the Championship he averaged 1.46 PPG, so continuing that we would have finished 8th or 9th depending if you round up or down. His last 10 games he average 1.1 PPG, which would have seen us finish on less points than we ended up on this season if it had played out across the remaining games. To get in the top 6 he'd have to have averaged 1.6 PPG for the rest of the season. The evidence generally pointed to results getting worse over time rather than getting better as they'd have needed to.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

10 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Plenty of positive stuff in his record says he's not an awful head coach.

I think the big lesson of both Smith and Wagner is that we're better off bringing in managers who are complete unknowns so there are less holes to be picked by those that enjoy doing it before anything has happened.

The last sentence is the only part that I agree with.

[Midlands Yellow 4,107]

1 minute ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

He didn't fail at Villa. He was sacked having got them promoted and delivered survival in the first season. He was sacked when they weren't even in the relegation zone.

He certainly did with what was expected. Given a very generous kitty more than once and was leading them to another relegation battle. Didn’t they lose 5 on the spin prior to being sacked? 
 

I admire your crusade in defending the man though. Are you related or just close friends? 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,604]

Just now, king canary said:

The 9 game run is no more evidence than all the other games though is it? It's no more likely that that run was the norm than the final 10 games of his time here was.

In the Championship he averaged 1.46 PPG, so continuing that we would have finished 8th or 9th depending if you round up or down. His last 10 games he average 1.1 PPG, which would have seen us finish on less points than we ended up on this season if it had played out across the remaining games. To get in the top 6 he'd have to have averaged 1.6 PPG for the rest of the season. The evidence generally pointed to results getting worse over time rather than getting better as they'd have needed to.

So what you're saying is that bad form is significant but form means nothing?

[littleyellowbirdie 2,604]

4 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

He certainly did with what was expected. Given a very generous kitty more than once and was leading them to another relegation battle. Didn’t they lose 5 on the spin prior to being sacked? 
 

I admire your crusade in defending the man though. Are you related or just close friends? 

I really don't care much either way about Smith the man. I'm more interested in not letting people convince themselves that it was worth sacking him anyway, because that's complete rubbish.

The result of sacking him is:

• No promotion
• A manager who looks like he'll be starting next season on the back foot, raising the likelihood that fans will be demanding mid-season managerial change next season as well, meaning yet more disruption and changes of direction
• Compensation paid for no benefit.

People can slag off Smith as much as they like, but fans getting their way has been a costly waste of time and effort.

Edited May 16, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[king canary 7,680]

5 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

So what you're saying is that bad form is significant but form means nothing?

Sure, if you can't read.

I'm saying the following.

• The overall PPG achieved by Smith, including that spell of excellent results, wasn't enough to get us into the playoffs over the whole season
• The general trend on a PPG basis was that things were getting worse not better.
• This trend was also backed up by the underlying xG stats which trending downwards as the season went on.

Edited May 16, 2023 by king canary

[Indy 3,323]

1 minute ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

I really don't care much either way about Smith the man. I'm more interested in not letting people convince themselves that it was worth sacking him anyway, because that's complete rubbish.

The result of sacking him is:

• No promotion
• A manager who looks like he'll be starting next season on the back foot, raising the likelihood that fans will be demanding mid-season managerial change next season as well.
• Compensation paid for no benefit.

People can slag off Smith as much as they like, but fans getting their way has been a costly waste of time and effort.

So if Leicester get relegated he hasn’t failed again just not met the club’s expectations and if he goes it’s the fans fault not his as he’s a very good coach in your opinion? You’re a decent poster LYB but sometimes your crusade is a little desperate mate.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,604]

3 minutes ago, king canary said:

Sure, if you can't read.

I'm saying the following.

• The overall PPG achieved by Smith, including that spell of excellent results, wasn't enough to get us into the playoffs over the whole season
• The general trend on a PPG basis was that things were getting worse not better.
• This trend was also backed up by the underlying xG stats which trending downwards as the season went on.

That's just picking another timescale to suit an argument. You can't dismiss form in one sample to then pick another sample to suggest that means that's where you'll finish up. That's just nonsense. All I was pointing out was that there was plenty of evidence to suggest things could turn for the better as well as for the worse.

The mould set of giving plenty of time to see how things would go set with Farke was a good precedent and it shouldn't have been abandoned. He should have had the whole season regardless of the way it looked.

Edited May 16, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[hogesar 9,766]

Just now, king canary said:

Sure, if you can't read.

I'm saying the following.

• The overall PPG achieved by Smith, including that spell of excellent results, wasn't enough to get us into the playoffs over the whole season
• The general trend on a PPG basis was that things were getting worse not better.
• This trend was also backed up by the underlying xG stats which trending downwards as the season went on.

Yes. Good summary.

The other small point to make is Wagner with a full squad playing at it's best was considerably better to watch, with better results, than Smith with a full squad playing at it's best. So I don't think the change was entirely pointless.

In Smiths defence, in his last few games we did lose games we didn't deserve to. 2-3 at home to Preston, 0-1 to Luton (no-one deserved to win that awful game), 0-0 to QPR (we really should have scored a couple that day). Even the 1-2 loss to Boro, we probably shouldn't have lost.

But we did and the fans had turned. It is what it is. 

3 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

That's just picking another timescale to suit an argument. You can't dismiss form in one sample to then pick another sample to suggest that means that's where you'll finish up. That's just nonsense.

I think the entire season to date that he managed us was as good a timescale as anyone could pick, to be fair.

[king canary 7,680]

3 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

That's just picking another timescale to suit an argument. You can't dismiss form in one sample to then pick another sample to suggest that means that's where you'll finish up. That's just nonsense. All I was pointing out was that there was plenty of evidence to suggest things could turn for the better as well as for the worse.

It is picking the entire timescale of his time here? It is certainly a better measure than cherry picking one run of exceptional form as you like to do.

You say plenty of evidence but all you ever have is one nine game run, which is far more selective than any of the evidence I've put above. 

If you've got more I'm all ears.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,604]

Just now, hogesar said:

Yes. Good summary.

The other small point to make is Wagner with a full squad playing at it's best was considerably better to watch, with better results, than Smith with a full squad playing at it's best. So I don't think the change was entirely pointless.

In Smiths defence, in his last few games we did lose games we didn't deserve to. 2-3 at home to Preston, 0-1 to Luton (no-one deserved to win that awful game), 0-0 to QPR (we really should have scored a couple that day). Even the 1-2 loss to Boro, we probably shouldn't have lost.

But we did and the fans had turned. It is what it is. 

I think the entire season to date that he managed us was as good a timescale as anyone could pick, to be fair.

My point is that the best timescale to judge a whole season on is a whole season.

[hogesar 9,766]

Just now, littleyellowbirdie said:

My point is that the best timescale to judge a whole season on is a whole season.

We have to go with what is available to us. He didn't get a full season.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,604]

Just now, king canary said:

It is picking the entire timescale of his time here? It is certainly a better measure than cherry picking one run of exceptional form as you like to do.

You say plenty of evidence but all you ever have is one nine game run, which is far more selective than any of the evidence I've put above. 

If you've got more I'm all ears.

Not reasonable to count the Premier League record. He inherited a massively failing team in the Premier league, besides which his record with us in the Premier league was better than Farke's.