Unofficial Reading v Norwich match thread with all the news

[CDMullins 436]

2 hours ago, chicken said:

Nah sorry. Though it may be a low bar, we have outplayed more sides than not this season. None have really outplayed us.

We've not been any luckier than for or against. There have been games we have been unlucky not to score more, most games in fact.

It's not really luck though is it? You have to create chances. We've not scored any goals you could consider lucky, at which point, it's down to the opposition to score more. 

Lets have a look at league fixtures shall we? (Norwich stat first unless otherwise stated).

Cardiff Away 1-0(L): 6 shots Vs 3, 1 on target Vs 2, 55% possession, 77% pass accuracy Vs 74%, 432 passes Vs 360, 7 corners Vs 1, 9 fouls Vs 16. Stats suggest that Cardiff were lucky to get a point let alone a win.
Wigan Home 1-1(D): 22 shots Vs 6, 4 on target Vs 3, 71% possession, 585 passes Vs 254, 84% pass accuracy Vs 61%, 6 fouls Vs 13, 9 corners Vs 0.
Hull Away 2-1(L): 18 shots Vs 13, 12 on target Vs 4, 70% posession, 581 passes Vs 249, 86% pass accuracy Vs 67%, 6 fouls Vs 15, 11 corners Vs 2. 

Firs three games of the season where we got a single point. Evidence suggests that with the lions share of possession and by far the most chances, we should have scored more goals. Certainly NOT lucky in those fixtures, more unlucky.

Huddersfield Home 2-1(w): 22 shots, 9 on target Vs 11 shots, 5 on target. 68% possession, 88% pass accuracy Vs 78% pass accuracy, 719 passes Vs 352, 13 fouls to 5, 8 corners to 1.
Millwall Home 2-0(w): 18shots, 3 on target Vs 10shots, 2 on target. 63% possession, 503 passes Vs 299, 81% pass accuracy Vs 65%, 4 fouls Vs 16, 5 corners to 4.
Sunderland Away 0-1(w): 12 shots, 3 on target Vs 20 shots, 6 on target (first time in 6 games we were beaten in this stat), 55% possession, 391 passes Vs 312, 74% pass accuracy Vs 67%, 9 fouls to 11, 7 corners to 8.
Birmingham Away 1-2(w): 14 shots, 5 on target Vs 9 shots, 2 on target. 66% possession, 543 passes Vs 276, 85% pass accuracy Vs 70%, 5 fouls Vs 15, 8 corners to 6. 
Coventry Home 3-0(w): 14shots, 7 on target Vs 6 shots 1 on target. 61% possession, 645 passes Vs 406, 88% pass accuracy Vs 79%, 8 fouls Vs 4, 4 corners Vs 1.
Bristol City Home 3-2(w): 11shots, 6 on target Vs 11shots, 4 on target. 46% possession, 425 passes Vs 470, 71% pass accuracy Vs 74%, 2 corners Vs 8. 
West Brom Home 1-1(d): 11 shots, 3 on target Vs 11 shots, 2 on target. 66% possession, 562 passess Vs 295, 83% pass accuracy Vs 69%, 10 fouls Vs 13, 7 corners Vs 4.
Blackpool Away 0-1(w): 22 shots, 8 on target Vs 17 shots, 6 on target. 52% possession, 75% pass accuracy Vs 73%, 437 passes Vs 397, 4 fouls Vs 13, 6 corners Vs 9.
Reading Away 1-1(d): 7 shots, 1 on target Vs 10 shots, 3 on target. 66% possession, 605 passes Vs 316, 85% pass accuracy Vs 77%, 4 fouls Vs 10, 7 corners Vs 3. 

Quick take aways from that:
- Only once have we had less of the ball than the opposition (Bristol City).
- Only twice out of 12 games have the opposition had more shots than us, Reading and Sunderland away.
- Not been beaten on pass accuracy.
- Only once have the opposition passed the ball more times than us (Bristol City).

Now please point out to me where we have been "lucky"? We have essentially dominated all games in terms of the stats bar Bristol City and Sunderland, and in those, we only won against Sunderland with fewer shots in total and on target.

So I actually think that we are exactly where we deserve to be. 
 

Ah,

You're one of them we had more shots and more possession, that must mean we dominated the game and deserved to win types?

Teams that come to Carrow Rd (and probably some away from home) know they are likely to be starved of the ball and rather than try and win it back, they try to manage where and how we have to ball, that doesn't mean we've dominated them.

Neither doesn't 22 shots from 30 yards.

Edited October 5, 2022 by CDMullins

[nutty nigel 7,537]

A lot of people seem to be in the uncomfortable position where the results, points, league position and stats are all at odds with what they post.

I notice a few wise ones are keeping their heads down until / unless this changes.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,551]

8 minutes ago, CDMullins said:

Ah,

You're one of them we had more shots and more possession, that must mean we dominated the game and deserved to win types?

Teams that come to Carrow Rd (and probably some away from home) know they are likely to be starved of the ball and rather than try and win it back, they try to manage where and how we have to ball, that doesn't mean we've dominated them.

Neither doesn't 22 shots from 30 yards.

By that i take it you're one of those Trump-like, 'facts and statistics combined with actual results don't mean anything if it doesn't match my own prejudices' types? 

Those stats, combined with our XGs and our 9 game unbeaten run with 23 points out of a possible 27 points do very comprehensively illustrate that we're tending to dominate very convincingly on the whole. 

[CDMullins 436]

4 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

By that i take it you're one of those Trump-like, 'facts and statistics combined with actual results don't mean anything if it doesn't match my own prejudices' types? 

Those stats, combined with our XGs and our 9 game unbeaten run with 23 points out of a possible 27 points do very comprehensively illustrate that we're tending to dominate very convincingly on the whole. 

Let's see what happens then,

Either our results will start matching our performances and we'll begin dropping points.

Or our performances will start matching our results and we'll start flying.

Right now we're scraping points without the performances, that's unsustainable and it's been pretty uninspiring so stuff so far.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,551]

1 minute ago, CDMullins said:

Let's see what happens then,

Either our results will start matching our performances and we'll begin dropping points.

Or our performances will start matching our results and we'll start flying.

Right now we're scraping points without the performances, that's unsustainable and it's been pretty uninspiring so stuff so far.

Now that's a sensible f**king suggestion finally. 

[canarybubbles 1,923]

10 hours ago, chicken said:

Nah sorry. Though it may be a low bar, we have outplayed more sides than not this season. None have really outplayed us.

We've not been any luckier than for or against. There have been games we have been unlucky not to score more, most games in fact.

It's not really luck though is it? You have to create chances. We've not scored any goals you could consider lucky, at which point, it's down to the opposition to score more. 

Lets have a look at league fixtures shall we? (Norwich stat first unless otherwise stated).

Cardiff Away 1-0(L): 6 shots Vs 3, 1 on target Vs 2, 55% possession, 77% pass accuracy Vs 74%, 432 passes Vs 360, 7 corners Vs 1, 9 fouls Vs 16. Stats suggest that Cardiff were lucky to get a point let alone a win.
Wigan Home 1-1(D): 22 shots Vs 6, 4 on target Vs 3, 71% possession, 585 passes Vs 254, 84% pass accuracy Vs 61%, 6 fouls Vs 13, 9 corners Vs 0.
Hull Away 2-1(L): 18 shots Vs 13, 12 on target Vs 4, 70% posession, 581 passes Vs 249, 86% pass accuracy Vs 67%, 6 fouls Vs 15, 11 corners Vs 2. 

Firs three games of the season where we got a single point. Evidence suggests that with the lions share of possession and by far the most chances, we should have scored more goals. Certainly NOT lucky in those fixtures, more unlucky.

Huddersfield Home 2-1(w): 22 shots, 9 on target Vs 11 shots, 5 on target. 68% possession, 88% pass accuracy Vs 78% pass accuracy, 719 passes Vs 352, 13 fouls to 5, 8 corners to 1.
Millwall Home 2-0(w): 18shots, 3 on target Vs 10shots, 2 on target. 63% possession, 503 passes Vs 299, 81% pass accuracy Vs 65%, 4 fouls Vs 16, 5 corners to 4.
Sunderland Away 0-1(w): 12 shots, 3 on target Vs 20 shots, 6 on target (first time in 6 games we were beaten in this stat), 55% possession, 391 passes Vs 312, 74% pass accuracy Vs 67%, 9 fouls to 11, 7 corners to 8.
Birmingham Away 1-2(w): 14 shots, 5 on target Vs 9 shots, 2 on target. 66% possession, 543 passes Vs 276, 85% pass accuracy Vs 70%, 5 fouls Vs 15, 8 corners to 6. 
Coventry Home 3-0(w): 14shots, 7 on target Vs 6 shots 1 on target. 61% possession, 645 passes Vs 406, 88% pass accuracy Vs 79%, 8 fouls Vs 4, 4 corners Vs 1.
Bristol City Home 3-2(w): 11shots, 6 on target Vs 11shots, 4 on target. 46% possession, 425 passes Vs 470, 71% pass accuracy Vs 74%, 2 corners Vs 8. 
West Brom Home 1-1(d): 11 shots, 3 on target Vs 11 shots, 2 on target. 66% possession, 562 passess Vs 295, 83% pass accuracy Vs 69%, 10 fouls Vs 13, 7 corners Vs 4.
Blackpool Away 0-1(w): 22 shots, 8 on target Vs 17 shots, 6 on target. 52% possession, 75% pass accuracy Vs 73%, 437 passes Vs 397, 4 fouls Vs 13, 6 corners Vs 9.
Reading Away 1-1(d): 7 shots, 1 on target Vs 10 shots, 3 on target. 66% possession, 605 passes Vs 316, 85% pass accuracy Vs 77%, 4 fouls Vs 10, 7 corners Vs 3. 

Quick take aways from that:
- Only once have we had less of the ball than the opposition (Bristol City).
- Only twice out of 12 games have the opposition had more shots than us, Reading and Sunderland away.
- Not been beaten on pass accuracy.
- Only once have the opposition passed the ball more times than us (Bristol City).

Now please point out to me where we have been "lucky"? We have essentially dominated all games in terms of the stats bar Bristol City and Sunderland, and in those, we only won against Sunderland with fewer shots in total and on target.

So I actually think that we are exactly where we deserve to be. 
 

Impressive use of stats. 

And although I take a completely different position from you on Smith, I agree that we are where we 'deserve' to be, even on a subjective eye-test. The first three games we could easily have got six more points, but we probably lucked out a bit on a few of the subsequent games. So I'd say luck has evened itself out.

[chicken 2,627]

9 hours ago, CDMullins said:

Ah,

You're one of them we had more shots and more possession, that must mean we dominated the game and deserved to win types?

Teams that come to Carrow Rd (and probably some away from home) know they are likely to be starved of the ball and rather than try and win it back, they try to manage where and how we have to ball, that doesn't mean we've dominated them.

Neither doesn't 22 shots from 30 yards.

Oh wow! So you are one of those types who thinks all the stats lie and believes that we have a plethora of players that take on shots from 30yrds?

No, stats don't tell the whole picture all of the time. However, they do tell a large portion of the story.

For example, corners tend to suggest how often the ball was in one final third. You don't tend to get corners very often from outside the final third.

Pass accuracy is also a good one for when people criticise giving the ball away too often. Though it doesn't say where on the pitch that happens... give it away in your own defensive third is very different to Pukki losing out on a through ball in the oppo defensive third.

However, "dominance" suggests that one team controlls another through their play. Interestingly you give the example of teams playing deeper and go for counter attacks as a counter argument. It isn't.

That's an example of teams knowing they'll get dominated and playing an open flowing approach will likely see them lose. In otherwords, they have already said we'd dominate. Parking the bus is ok, but the shots and points suggest few have done it brilliantly.

Fouls also supports this.

At the end of the day, if teams are trying to stop us playing it explains your view more than the idea we haven't deserved to win. It says despite teams trying to stop us we have a high pass completion rate, still have more shots, still get in their final third more. And the most important dominant stat? Still bag more goals which means win more games.

[hogesar 9,676]

I must pertain, the double-downing from fans who went in early on Smith is really, really funny to read. Sometimes in life you have to accept if you don't really know what you're talking about and if football is one of those things then so be it. 🙂

I'd like to take the opportunity to exclude @canarybubbles from that though, I think he's been pretty fair in all his recent assessments despite not rating Smith.

[chicken 2,627]

9 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Now that's a sensible f**king suggestion finally. 

Well... semi sensible... performances are clearly getting the points they deserve... how inspiring it is to an individual isn't measurable or anything to do with deserving results.

That's more about wanting a team to lose to get your own way.

2nd in the league right now because our performances, on the whole, have put as there.

[Barham Blitz 653]

Sheffield United, Burnley, Watford and ourselves should - on paper at least - be the standout teams in this division.  We will have a much clearer idea by the end of this month where we are likely to end up.  So far we have picked up points more or less where we probably should have if we want to be challenging for automatic promotion (which to be fair may be enough to get us up anyway given our historic issues against the bigger teams in this division even when we end up winning it.)  And we are second because our rivals haven't always.  But there are greater challenges to come in the next few weeks.

Hopefully teams with a bit more ambition will prove less of an obdurate defensive obstacle even allowing for their greater attacking threat.  Although they will probably be thinking exactly the same about us.  I think we've seen enough of the division to be confident of playoffs at worst but for me the jury is still out on top two come the end of the season.  A potentially defining few weeks ahead.

[canarybubbles 1,923]

4 hours ago, hogesar said:

I must pertain, the double-downing from fans who went in early on Smith is really, really funny to read. Sometimes in life you have to accept if you don't really know what you're talking about and if football is one of those things then so be it. 🙂

I'd like to take the opportunity to exclude @canarybubbles from that though, I think he's been pretty fair in all his recent assessments despite not rating Smith.

Steady on, Hogesar - I have a reputation to consider.  😉

Joking aside, I still don't like the football much (although I accept it's not hoofball), and I'm still far from convinced that our position will be sustained over the whole season. But I can't argue with 24 points from 12 games, even if the performances leave a lot to be desired.

What no one can know is how we are going to fare when we finally play the teams who are almost certainly our main rivals, plus other possible pretenders like QPR and Swansea. If we're still in the top two when the World Cup starts, I think we're serious contenders. And if Smith eventually takes us up, I'll have to admit he's done what he is being paid to do, even if I don't like him or his 'pragmatic' style of football.

[canarybubbles 1,923]

Double post.

Edited October 6, 2022 by canarybubbles

[canarybubbles 1,923]

Triple post!

Edited October 6, 2022 by canarybubbles
Triple post!

[Shining White 13]

19 hours ago, chicken said:

Nah sorry. Though it may be a low bar, we have outplayed more sides than not this season. None have really outplayed us.

We've not been any luckier than for or against. There have been games we have been unlucky not to score more, most games in fact.

It's not really luck though is it? You have to create chances. We've not scored any goals you could consider lucky, at which point, it's down to the opposition to score more. 

Lets have a look at league fixtures shall we? (Norwich stat first unless otherwise stated).

Cardiff Away 1-0(L): 6 shots Vs 3, 1 on target Vs 2, 55% possession, 77% pass accuracy Vs 74%, 432 passes Vs 360, 7 corners Vs 1, 9 fouls Vs 16. Stats suggest that Cardiff were lucky to get a point let alone a win.
Wigan Home 1-1(D): 22 shots Vs 6, 4 on target Vs 3, 71% possession, 585 passes Vs 254, 84% pass accuracy Vs 61%, 6 fouls Vs 13, 9 corners Vs 0.
Hull Away 2-1(L): 18 shots Vs 13, 12 on target Vs 4, 70% posession, 581 passes Vs 249, 86% pass accuracy Vs 67%, 6 fouls Vs 15, 11 corners Vs 2. 

Firs three games of the season where we got a single point. Evidence suggests that with the lions share of possession and by far the most chances, we should have scored more goals. Certainly NOT lucky in those fixtures, more unlucky.

Huddersfield Home 2-1(w): 22 shots, 9 on target Vs 11 shots, 5 on target. 68% possession, 88% pass accuracy Vs 78% pass accuracy, 719 passes Vs 352, 13 fouls to 5, 8 corners to 1.
Millwall Home 2-0(w): 18shots, 3 on target Vs 10shots, 2 on target. 63% possession, 503 passes Vs 299, 81% pass accuracy Vs 65%, 4 fouls Vs 16, 5 corners to 4.
Sunderland Away 0-1(w): 12 shots, 3 on target Vs 20 shots, 6 on target (first time in 6 games we were beaten in this stat), 55% possession, 391 passes Vs 312, 74% pass accuracy Vs 67%, 9 fouls to 11, 7 corners to 8.
Birmingham Away 1-2(w): 14 shots, 5 on target Vs 9 shots, 2 on target. 66% possession, 543 passes Vs 276, 85% pass accuracy Vs 70%, 5 fouls Vs 15, 8 corners to 6. 
Coventry Home 3-0(w): 14shots, 7 on target Vs 6 shots 1 on target. 61% possession, 645 passes Vs 406, 88% pass accuracy Vs 79%, 8 fouls Vs 4, 4 corners Vs 1.
Bristol City Home 3-2(w): 11shots, 6 on target Vs 11shots, 4 on target. 46% possession, 425 passes Vs 470, 71% pass accuracy Vs 74%, 2 corners Vs 8. 
West Brom Home 1-1(d): 11 shots, 3 on target Vs 11 shots, 2 on target. 66% possession, 562 passess Vs 295, 83% pass accuracy Vs 69%, 10 fouls Vs 13, 7 corners Vs 4.
Blackpool Away 0-1(w): 22 shots, 8 on target Vs 17 shots, 6 on target. 52% possession, 75% pass accuracy Vs 73%, 437 passes Vs 397, 4 fouls Vs 13, 6 corners Vs 9.
Reading Away 1-1(d): 7 shots, 1 on target Vs 10 shots, 3 on target. 66% possession, 605 passes Vs 316, 85% pass accuracy Vs 77%, 4 fouls Vs 10, 7 corners Vs 3. 

Quick take aways from that:
- Only once have we had less of the ball than the opposition (Bristol City).
- Only twice out of 12 games have the opposition had more shots than us, Reading and Sunderland away.
- Not been beaten on pass accuracy.
- Only once have the opposition passed the ball more times than us (Bristol City).

Now please point out to me where we have been "lucky"? We have essentially dominated all games in terms of the stats bar Bristol City and Sunderland, and in those, we only won against Sunderland with fewer shots in total and on target.

So I actually think that we are exactly where we deserve to be. 
 

So we weren't lucky to draw on Tuesday despite Reading scoring one, Tim Krul making a great save and Reading also shaving the post with Krul well beaten, when we mustered one shot all night, just because Hanley & Omobamidele spent all night giving the ball back to each other to make possession, passes and pass accuracy super high? Sorry, I don't agree 

[kirku 1,334]

11 hours ago, hogesar said:

Sometimes in life you have to accept if you don't really know what you're talking about and if football is one of those things then so be it. 🙂

Like that time you claimed Farke was "against pressing"?

That was pretty funny

Edited October 6, 2022 by kirku

[Branston Pickle 3,661]

3 hours ago, Shining White said:

So we weren't lucky to draw on Tuesday despite Reading scoring one, Tim Krul making a great save and Reading also shaving the post with Krul well beaten, when we mustered one shot all night, just because Hanley & Omobamidele spent all night giving the ball back to each other to make possession, passes and pass accuracy super high? Sorry, I don't agree 

You do realise that Reading had only 3 shots on target in the entire game, and their goal was a bad effort from Krul?  That’s hardly barnstorming.   They hit the post, we hit the bar (fortuitously, but so what), big deal. 

 I think most actually saw a draw as fair, neither side did enough to win…but there’s a swathe of our fans that constantly look for the negative.

[CDMullins 436]

5 hours ago, Shining White said:

So we weren't lucky to draw on Tuesday despite Reading scoring one, Tim Krul making a great save and Reading also shaving the post with Krul well beaten, when we mustered one shot all night, just because Hanley & Omobamidele spent all night giving the ball back to each other to make possession, passes and pass accuracy super high? Sorry, I don't agree 

This.

[chicken 2,627]

5 hours ago, Shining White said:

So we weren't lucky to draw on Tuesday despite Reading scoring one, Tim Krul making a great save and Reading also shaving the post with Krul well beaten, when we mustered one shot all night, just because Hanley & Omobamidele spent all night giving the ball back to each other to make possession, passes and pass accuracy super high? Sorry, I don't agree 

The shots on target is always a little misleading on their own, it's why I think if you bring in corners it can be a good indicator as well, hence I included them. For example, Pukki could shoot from 8yrds and a defender block/deflect it out for a corner. It goes down as a shot but not on target, even if it was. But it does go down as a corner. Corners can be reflective of pressure - desperate tackles, deflected shots, defensive headers etc.

Reading and Sunderland are the only two sides to have had more shots than us. Sunderland by much more. I wouldn't really consider three more shots at goal as being massively more. It's rarely going to be exactly the same - though we have seen that twice already this season. I would expect close games to normally be 3-4 shots between sides. 

At the point of Norwich scoring we had hit the bar via a diving defensive tackle and scored. Nunez and McLean both had golden opportunities but both completely scuffed them when the goal was beckoning, both from inside the box around the penalty spot. Carrol had one header saved by Krul at that point and there was another shot from outside of the area that narrowly missed by Hendrick, plus one that Ince was unlikely to ever get onto with it being slightly ahead of him. They scored after Norwich with a shot from outside the area. They certainly weren't pulling the defence apart with passing that saw Nunez set through or McLean.

However, again, I will just repeat, the stats I gave were not to illustrate the Reading game, but in response to several people claiming we are playing poorly and are not dominating games and are instead lucky, and scraping wins. The stats don't support that. The stats suggest a draw with Reading is fair. The stats for the first three games suggest if anything, we were unlucky not to have more points at that point.

As others have said, you expect some swings and roundabouts, and as a whole, we are where we deserve to be, nothing lucky about it in the slightest.


 

Edited October 6, 2022 by chicken

[Ian 1,130]

2 hours ago, Branston Pickle said:

You do realise that Reading had only 3 shots on target in the entire game, and their goal was a bad effort from Krul?  That’s hardly barnstorming.   They hit the post, we hit the bar (fortuitously, but so what), big deal. 

 I think most actually saw a draw as fair, neither side did enough to win…but there’s a swathe of our fans that constantly look for the negative.

I think Reading had the better chances over the course of the game, but it certainly wasn't a one-sided match where we clung on to a point.

Besides which, I am a bit confused by people suggesting Krul making one good save implies we were "lucky" to get anything. A) he only made one save and let another saveable chance in, and B) suggesting our goalkeeper stopping shots makes us lucky is a bit like saying we are lucky when Pukki tucks away another chance.

Ultimately, we have some good players in key positions which can make all the difference, even when a team isn't playing beautiful football. I suppose you could argue we are fortunate to have both Krul and Pukki, but somehow I doubt that's what was meant...