The Brexit Thread (reprise)

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

Looks as though we're trying to pick a fight with the Danes now https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/17/denmark-accuses-uk-of-breaking-brexit-fishing-deal-over-trawling-ban

Good to see that our pair of idiots, Frosty & Johnson, haven't learnt a thing from taking on Macron & coming off second best. Maybe they really are stupid enough to think they can work their way round the EU picking a quarrel with one country at a time - if so they are heading for a really big disappointment 😂

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

Quite informative

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-boris-johnson-lies-b1980372.html

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

3 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Quite informative

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-boris-johnson-lies-b1980372.html

Very - another couple of things in there which caught my eye:

51% think that a referendum on rejoining should be held (at some point), 39% say it should be within 5 years and only 32% say there should never be another vote. Those figures for a rejoin vote are pleasantly surprising, it seems a pretty clear indication of how badly Brexit is going that already just over half want to have anothe go - reckon a year ago that would have been more like 30%.

The other thing was just confirmation of something we've known almost as soon as the votes were counted in 2016 - that the younger age groups (n fact young and middle aged groups) are massively Remain/Rejoin - only amonsgt the old farts do Leave have a majority. So those demographics are what will inevitably drive the UK back to either rejoining the EU or forming a far closer relationship with the EU than the nonsense which Johnson signed.

 

 

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Very - another couple of things in there which caught my eye:

51% think that a referendum on rejoining should be held (at some point), 39% say it should be within 5 years and only 32% say there should never be another vote. Those figures for a rejoin vote are pleasantly surprising, it seems a pretty clear indication of how badly Brexit is going that already just over half want to have anothe go - reckon a year ago that would have been more like 30%.

The other thing was just confirmation of something we've known almost as soon as the votes were counted in 2016 - that the younger age groups (n fact young and middle aged groups) are massively Remain/Rejoin - only amonsgt the old farts do Leave have a majority. So those demographics are what will inevitably drive the UK back to either rejoining the EU or forming a far closer relationship with the EU than the nonsense which Johnson signed.

 

 

I gave it ten years a year ago. Direction of travel is obvious. My ten years looks probably too long.

[BigFish 1,988]

2022 is going to be interesting. Can't see UK/EU relations improving as the various grace periods lapse and trading becomes more challenging. Rapprochment is impossible with the current makeup in Parliament. Too many MPs see Brexit as their calling or have made it their life work to realistically reshape our international relationships. Johnson would seem to be a dead man walking as PM and the Tories need something to reunite their support. I suspect Truss is now favourite, but to be elected she must at least talk tough on the EU. That leaves her with two options. First, talk tough but do nothing. Second, collapse the CTA to create a trade war with the EU before attempting to fight the GE on Brexit (again).

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

1 hour ago, BigFish said:

2022 is going to be interesting. Can't see UK/EU relations improving as the various grace periods lapse and trading becomes more challenging. Rapprochment is impossible with the current makeup in Parliament. Too many MPs see Brexit as their calling or have made it their life work to realistically reshape our international relationships. Johnson would seem to be a dead man walking as PM and the Tories need something to reunite their support. I suspect Truss is now favourite, but to be elected she must at least talk tough on the EU. That leaves her with two options. First, talk tough but do nothing. Second, collapse the CTA to create a trade war with the EU before attempting to fight the GE on Brexit (again).

The prospect of someone as thick as Truss running the country is pretty scarey, although maybe a bit less scarey than Johnson doing it.

Personally I'm far from convinced it will be her but if it is I would guess she'd take the 'talk tough and do nothing option' - I think that would be her approach in most areas, i.e. very much a Theresa May type PM who talked a fair bit about what she was going to do having a clue as to how to go about doing it (or in fact whether it was actually possible) and end up doing nothing at all.

[ricardo 7,395]

4 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I gave it ten years a year ago. Direction of travel is obvious. My ten years looks probably too long.

It will be much like hydrogen powered cars or nuclear fusion, always about ten years in the future.😉

[Surfer 1,547]

In this case I think you will be proven to be wrong Ricardo. IMO four more years before serious negotiations start to rejoin. Too many people already see the damage Brexit is bringing with it. 

In the meantime we'll face a year of yelling and screaming and threats of a trade war, followed by three years of rather clandestine agreements on FOM etc before formal membership talks start. 

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

It will be much like hydrogen powered cars or nuclear fusion, always about ten years in the future.😉

Both of these are becoming available - even JCB making hydrogen engines and ITER in 2025 has first plasma.

Brexit is by comparison is a return to coal.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

11 hours ago, ricardo said:

It will be much like hydrogen powered cars or nuclear fusion, always about ten years in the future.😉

😊 That certainly brings back some memories - back in the day I was working at Culham when the UK Atomic Energy Authority got what I'm pretty sure was their first Tokamak working and that wildly over-optimistic prediction about nuclear fusion was made - not I hasten to add that I knew anything worth knowing about nuclear physics, I was just programming those new fangled inventions called computers for them.

But anyway I'm pretty sure that it was only a few of the purely theoretical physicists that got a bit over-excited and made that prediction, I think everybody else whether they were physicists or not realised there were huge, and possibly insurmountable, problems in turning the theory into practice.

So I don't think your analogy really works with respect to the UK rejoining the EU, which is not to suggest there are no problems or obstacles to be overcome in the process but I see nothing of remotely comparable difficulty to your examples and certainly nothing at which can't be overcome.

I suspect the two biggest difficulties would be:

Firstly opposition within the EU to the UK rejoining and of course any single member could veto our application. I can imagine there are probably several countries that would be minded to do so but in practice eventually the economic and political benefits of UK membership would win the day.

Secondly we will not be going back in with the opt-outs and deals that we enjoyed before - we will never get as good a deal as we've just walked away from and in particular we will become a significant net contributor again to the EU budget. That will no doubt cause some pain to some people but in a few years time in a Britain much chastened by Brexit it will only be the most stupid/delusional that don't realise that our contributions to the EU are literally loose change compared to the economic benefits of the Single Market, as indeed they always were.

It seems to me that the economy is going to become the dominant issue in General Elections again as it nearly always used to be and Johnson has shot himself in both feet economically with his incompetent shambolic Covid response and his bungled Brexit deal - that is going to weigh very heavily in future elections.

[Van wink 2,994]

No government is going to have the capacity or inclination to try and rejoin, conciliatory words will be expressed to placate those EU enthusiasts but no more than that. We have far too many other complex’s and pressing issues to deal with, Brexit has been a massive drain on Government resource and to look at rejoining would only perpetuate that. A closer relationship is inevitable but I can’t see anyone having the energy to want to push for a return to full membership.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

20 minutes ago, Van wink said:

No government is going to have the capacity or inclination to try and rejoin, conciliatory words will be expressed to placate those EU enthusiasts but no more than that. We have far too many other complex’s and pressing issues to deal with, Brexit has been a massive drain on Government resource and to look at rejoining would only perpetuate that. A closer relationship is inevitable but I can’t see anyone having the energy to want to push for a return to full membership.

Full member ship no - not in it's current form in ten years but of course we can easily move back towards a Switzerland or Norway (i.e .SM). However in the next years all the reasons why we joined belatedly in the first place - and the reasons for Maggie's push for the SM will be strong, evident and unanswerable.

That and a chastened UK with the young likely to be even more European in outlook than before. As with all things absence will make the heart grow stronger (it already is) - and we will yearn for what we lost. Europe will eventually see us as VERY pro European having learnt lessons the hardest way and welcome us 'back'. 

As an aside  - did you see the proposed India 'deal'

Basically let in thousands of young Indians as part of a trade deal (Delhi insists). You just couldn't make it up from the Brexiteers!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/01/uk-ministers-eager-to-ease-immigration-rules-for-indian-citizens

[Van wink 2,994]

12 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Full member ship no - not in it's current form in ten years but of course we can easily move back towards a Switzerland or Norway (i.e .SM). However in the next years all the reasons why we joined belatedly in the first place - and the reasons for Maggie's push for the SM will be strong, evident and unanswerable.

That and a chastened UK with the young likely to be even more European in outlook than before. As with all things absence will make the heart grow stronger (it already is) - and we will yearn for what we lost. Europe will eventually see us as VERY pro European having learnt lessons the hardest way and welcome us 'back'. 

As an aside  - did you see the proposed India 'deal'

Basically let in thousands of young Indians as part of a trade deal (Delhi insists). You just couldn't make it up from the Brexiteers!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/01/uk-ministers-eager-to-ease-immigration-rules-for-indian-citizens

There was never any chance of a trade deal with India that didn’t involve immigration, it’s been their position from the start and I see nothing unreasonable in it.

I would fully anticipate a move back to a closer trading relationship as said above, positions will soften as new governments emerge. We will hopefully end up in a situation that I had wanted from the start with a move away from political integration but a good mutually beneficial trading arrangement.

[KernowCanary 214]

Idiots on Twitter are now blaming this for the rubbish Christmas TV we had to endure, just because a lot of the stuff on was from the 70s and the TV lot are putting it on to remind us of what life was like before we joined the EU. They’re most probably trying to get “BrexitTV” trending now.

Absolutely pathetic, they’re blaming it on everything now, apart from Covid.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

4 hours ago, Van wink said:

There was never any chance of a trade deal with India that didn’t involve immigration, it’s been their position from the start and I see nothing unreasonable in it.

I would fully anticipate a move back to a closer trading relationship as said above, positions will soften as new governments emerge. We will hopefully end up in a situation that I had wanted from the start with a move away from political integration but a good mutually beneficial trading arrangement.

Actually - musing on your (and my) quite logical position I suspect we may both be wrong.

Brexit itself was a huge illogical emotionally contrived leap in the dark - we as a country had much better things to do at the time (and still do). Even Cameron thought so!

Given that this outburst happened at all there seems little argument as to why an emotional correction shouldn't happen again - despite any logical argument to let it rest (least of all one that shouldn't be made by any of Leavers). The country is and will remain somewhat split albeit shifting  clearly Pro EU so that argument is clearly mute and certainly if the progressives as seems likely swing the pendulum hard back with the young (and middle aged in ten years) I can easily see it becoming a reality - 66/33 in any poll and it will be game on.

Edited January 2, 2022 by Yellow Fever
Sorry made that too complicated - One largely emotional illogical decision that was made only just with the help of a lot lies can easily be undone by another - and the lies won't have any traction next time!

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Actually - musing on your (and my) quite logical position I suspect we may both be wrong.

Brexit itself was a huge illogical emotionally contrived leap in the dark - we as a country had much better things to do at the time (and still do). Even Cameron thought so!

Given that this outburst happened at all there seems little argument as to why an emotional correction shouldn't happen again - despite any logical argument to let it rest (least of all one that shouldn't be made by any of Leavers). The country is and will remain somewhat split albeit shifting  clearly Pro EU so that argument is clearly mute and certainly if the progressives as seems likely swing the pendulum hard back with the young (and middle aged in ten years) I can easily see it becoming a reality - 66/33 in any poll and it will be game on.

IMO any future Government with even a hint of acting responsibly would be most reluctant to open up the old wounds and divide the Country again having witnesses the carnage of the last few years. We need a period of stability.

[ricardo 7,395]

33 minutes ago, Van wink said:

IMO any future Government with even a hint of acting responsibly would be most reluctant to open up the old wounds and divide the Country again having witnesses the carnage of the last few years. We need a period of stability.

Exactly so, those hankering for a return to the EU are deluded. That ship has sailed.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

41 minutes ago, Van wink said:

IMO any future Government with even a hint of acting responsibly would be most reluctant to open up the old wounds and divide the Country again having witnesses the carnage of the last few years. We need a period of stability.

But is that before or after a Scottish referendum and Ireland border poll. You can see why the landscape might change radically in just a few years.

Thya said I rather expect well rejoin SM and FOM in less than ten years.

[BigFish 1,988]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Exactly so, those hankering for a return to the EU are deluded. That ship has sailed.

No Party serious about government could go there now, or indeed for the forseeable future. However, Brexit and the Brexiteers are pretty much a busted flush now, so change is in the air. Probably scope for a much closer EU/UK accord after the next GE, possibly not dissimilar to actual membership.

[Van wink 2,994]

11 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

But is that before or after a Scottish referendum and Ireland border poll. You can see why the landscape might change radically in just a few years.

 

Both potentially possible which of course will be hugely disruptive and surely only adds even more to the argument that further division caused by another EU vote would be seen as madness.

I think we agree that a moves towards closer trading relationships by both sides are inevitable.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

9 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Both potentially possible which of course will be hugely disruptive and surely only adds even more to the argument that further division caused by another EU vote would be seen as madness.

I think we agree that a moves towards closer trading relationships by both sides are inevitable.

 

22 minutes ago, BigFish said:

No Party serious about government could go there now, or indeed for the forseeable future. However, Brexit and the Brexiteers are pretty much a busted flush now, so change is in the air. Probably scope for a much closer EU/UK accord after the next GE, possibly not dissimilar to actual membership.

Yes .. but the incumbents have to make a success of Brexit for the younger generations else it will be unfinished business. So far as the poling suggests its not going well.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

4 hours ago, Van wink said:

IMO any future Government with even a hint of acting responsibly would be most reluctant to open up the old wounds and divide the Country again having witnesses the carnage of the last few years. We need a period of stability.

Except it wouldn't be a case of opening up old wounds and dividing the country again - the wounds are still open and red raw and the country is still totally divided just as it has been for the last 5 years.

Leaving aside that poll finding of 52% wanting another referendum, every single opinion poll I've seen since June 2016 shows that the country still is deeply and pretty evenly split, and the divide is getting ever more bitter so the 'old' wounds are actually the current wounds.

All the opposition parties at Westminister (with the exception of the DUP who are busily self-destructing) are pro-EU even if the Labour Party still finds it expedient to remain very quiet about it, so with public opinion also moving in that direction and with the economic damage from Brexit continually mounting it is only a matter of time before the political calculation kicks in that moving towards the EU is electorally beneficial.

Edited January 2, 2022 by Creative Midfielder

[ricardo 7,395]

50 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

t is only a matter of time before the political calculation kicks in that moving towards the EU is electorally beneficial.

They should have no problem making it a pledge in their election manifesto then.

Good luck with that.

[1902 1,167]

10 hours ago, ricardo said:

They should have no problem making it a pledge in their election manifesto then.

Good luck with that.

You are probably right for a few years, but in the medium term, it will probably be beneficial again.

The issue for those who think Brexit is a vote winner and will ever remain so is that whereas for the last five years leavers have been more motivated by brexit than remainers, that's now looking like its shifting.

Lots of previous leavers have not seen positive benefits from Brexit, so then you get down to the ideologically motivated, whereas very very few remainers have had their opinions changed by the reality of Brexit.

It's like all revolutions, eventually enthusiasm wanes and you get disillusionment.

[Van wink 2,994]

11 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Except it wouldn't be a case of opening up old wounds and dividing the country again - the wounds are still open and red raw

I hadn’t noticed

[Herman 9,779]

12 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I hadn’t noticed

😀

[ricardo 7,395]

3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I hadn’t noticed

😉

The problem for rejoiners is they now have to alter the status quo and whip up enthusiasm for a vote to rejoin. I can't  see any party making that a focus of an election manifesto, there are plenty of other fish to fry.

 

 

[Herman 9,779]

Rejoining fully is off the cards for the forseeable future imo. Rejoining the CU/SM in some way will be up soon though. Once the negative benefits of this hard brexit start to show the majority of brexit voters will start to see what a crock they were sold.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

1 minute ago, Herman said:

Rejoining fully is off the cards for the forseeable future imo. Rejoining the CU/SM in some way will be up soon though. Once the negative benefits of this hard brexit start to show the majority of brexit voters will start to see what a crock they were sold.

This I think was my original point.

We will move back towards the EU SM/CU in due course. The economic and political fundamentals don't change as to Britain's (let alone England's) interests. Formally rejoining is someway off but never say never.

What is clearly true is that the benefits of Brexit are proving largely illusionary and the downsides enormous. People can see that the Emperor has no clothes and no amount of guff from the Brexiteer windbags can change that. That is being reflected in the polls and the younger generations outlook with economic and cultural 'skin in the game' unlike the larger Brexity OAP contingent - and yes it may well in 6 or 10 years make electoral sense to promote joining again - a recreated Tory party indeed may indeed promote it (as in the 70s...).

 

[Herman 9,779]

Yes, it was your original point. My apologies for not reading the thread properly and missing important parts of it.😳👍