Come on Sarah

[Daz Sparks 1,154]

I notice a certain holiday company hasn't wasted any time in using the vaccine in adverts.

[sonyc 5,526]

2 hours ago, sonyc said:

So at 1m jabs a week, that's say 30 weeks to get half the population vaccinated. Say by June we may be out of the woods? Unless we can improve on that rate but the Pfizer roll out has been slower but presumably that's because of the logistics and storage as well as limited stock?

I'm hearing now it could be up to 2m per week. That would change this dramatically.

[Well b back 3,215]

37 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I'm hearing now it could be up to 2m per week. That would change this dramatically.

I believe I am right in saying ( some of it is guess work ) that 2nd dose is 4 - 12 weeks apart ( fact ). I believe this was their magic formula to get the efficacy up ( bit guesswork ) as that is a dramatic change from 3 weeks. You may also remember that Sarah Gilbert herself said it could be that the 1/2 dose triggers your immune response slower, hence delaying jab 2 could also trigger your immune response slower. I have no evidence for that but my best guess.

That however changes how quickly we can move as well. By the Spring Serum Institute said we would have huge amounts of our allocation. By spreading the doses upto 9 weeks more that means if we have say 1 million doses at the moment ready ( I know it’s a lot more than that ) 1 million people can be given the jab as we don’t have to worry about keeping dose 2, whereas with Pfizer we wouldn’t know we had more so that 1 million would only be 500,000 people. Hence it’s not our capacity to give the vaccine I believe, but the availability.

Hope that makes sense as my best guess.

[Well b back 3,215]

Did anyone notice in the MHRA statement the vaccine was approved yesterday, not today so we even got the date 29th December lol

[sonyc 5,526]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

I believe I am right in saying ( some of it is guess work ) that 2nd dose is 4 - 12 weeks apart ( fact ). I believe this was their magic formula to get the efficacy up ( bit guesswork ) as that is a dramatic change from 3 weeks. You may also remember that Sarah Gilbert herself said it could be that the 1/2 dose triggers your immune response slower, hence delaying jab 2 could also trigger your immune response slower. I have no evidence for that but my best guess.

That however changes how quickly we can move as well. By the Spring Serum Institute said we would have huge amounts of our allocation. By spreading the doses upto 9 weeks more that means if we have say 1 million doses at the moment ready ( I know it’s a lot more than that ) 1 million people can be given the jab as we don’t have to worry about keeping dose 2, whereas with Pfizer we wouldn’t know we had more so that 1 million would only be 500,000 people. Hence it’s not our capacity to give the vaccine I believe, but the availability.

Hope that makes sense as my best guess.

Thanks Wbb. I didn't know it was availability. The longer the gap between is helpful then. 

[Well b back 3,215]

1 minute ago, sonyc said:

Thanks Wbb. I didn't know it was availability. The longer the gap between is helpful then. 

That’s my believe as that was what a vaccine expert was saying on the radio. Does make sense in my head and also why would they move the 2nd dose from 3 to 4 - 12 weeks if there was not a reason. That’s why I tie it in with efficacy, but could be wrong.

[Well b back 3,215]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Yes but are these are just the top of a big team.  Truth probably is that no one person deserves recognition above the others

Hi Barbe

Indeed when I mentioned this a few days ago I stated the whole team ( especially those that altered a vaccine from a disease that they didn’t what it was going to be to a COVID vaccine over 60 hours ) should be awarded OBE’s or MBE’s whichever it is you get.

Pfizer as well need a lot of praise.

 

 

[Barbe bleu 827]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

I believe I am right in saying ( some of it is guess work ) that 2nd dose is 4 - 12 weeks apart ( fact ). I believe this was their magic formula to get the efficacy up ( bit guesswork ) as that is a dramatic change from 3 weeks. You may also remember that Sarah Gilbert herself said it could be that the 1/2 dose triggers your immune response slower, hence delaying jab 2 could also trigger your immune response slower. I have no evidence for that but my best guess.

 

Well spotted, i had not picked up on the extension from 3 weeks to a minimum of 4.  My guess would be the delay being about not letting the adenovirus reaction from the first jab interfere with a necessary mild infection (?) from the second.  But obviously this is totally uneducated guessing!

You should really get yourself into some form of research role, its obviously your passion!

Edited December 30, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Well b back 3,215]

There you go The Pink Un thread once again 5 steps in front of the U.K. press. This has just been released by our friends The Serum Institute, no idea why the British Press are not all over this, confirming that AstraZeneca have found that if the 2 doses are given 8 - 12 weeks apart the efficacy increases to 95 %. 
 

https://www.livemint.com/science/health/efficacy-of-oxford-jabs-at-95-if-given-3-months-apart-sii-11609181643451.html

[Well b back 3,215]

53 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Well spotted, i had not picked up on the extension from 3 weeks to a minimum of 4.  My guess wpuld be the delay being about not letting the adenovirus reaction from the first jab interfere with a necessary mild infection (?) from the second.  But obviously this is totally uneducated guessing!

You should really get yourself into some form of research role, its obviously yoir passion!

Lol

Mine was guesswork as well, but I have just put up a link from the Serum Institute which has shown our guesses were spot on lol.

[sonyc 5,526]

3 minutes ago, Well b back said:

There you go The Pink Un thread once again 5 steps in front of the U.K. press. This has just been released by our friends The Serum Institute, no idea why the British Press are not all over this, confirming that AstraZeneca have found that if the 2 doses are given 8 - 12 weeks apart the efficacy increases to 95 %. 
 

https://www.livemint.com/science/health/efficacy-of-oxford-jabs-at-95-if-given-3-months-apart-sii-11609181643451.html

No reactions left Wbb 👍👍

[Well b back 3,215]

6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

No reactions left Wbb 👍👍

Lol

the U.K. press are still reporting 70%, how difficult is it !

[Indy 3,301]

10 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Lol

Mine was guesswork as well, but I have just put up a link from the Serum Institute which has shown our guesses were spot on lol.

 

12 minutes ago, Well b back said:

There you go The Pink Un thread once again 5 steps in front of the U.K. press. This has just been released by our friends The Serum Institute, no idea why the British Press are not all over this, confirming that AstraZeneca have found that if the 2 doses are given 8 - 12 weeks apart the efficacy increases to 95 %. 
 

https://www.livemint.com/science/health/efficacy-of-oxford-jabs-at-95-if-given-3-months-apart-sii-11609181643451.html

I’ve read that initial findings indicate it could be the Oxford vaccine might have a two year longevity after the second shot, but for the life of me can’t find the article! Any idea WBB if that’s correct?

[Well b back 3,215]

3 minutes ago, Indy said:

 

I’ve read that initial findings indicate it could be the Oxford vaccine might have a two year longevity after the second shot, but for the life of me can’t find the article! Any idea WBB if that’s correct?

I will have a scout around, I have never really looked at that as I always assumed it was to early to tell, @Tetteys Jig might know more. I do know one thing at 95%  and if it lasts 2 years and of course the majority have it ( convinced they will ) some scientists are predicting the possibility of eradicating it, but that will depend on how much the virus changes I guess.

[Well b back 3,215]

We all knew 

The government has ordered 100 million doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, with around 40 million due to be available by the end of March.

And we also knew the Serum Institute will deliver another 60 million before June.

This has not been approved for under 18’s so if my calculations are correct based on a second dose is not needed for 8 - 12 weeks anyone who wants the vaccine can be vaccinated with their first dose by March.

 

[Well b back 3,215]

Sky are saying 80 % but at this point think I will go with Serum Institute in view of what AstraZeneca said.

A first dose of the jab gives around 70% effectiveness from three weeks after immunisation, according to the MHRA and the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI).

Data showed the vaccine was then up to 80% effective when the second dose was given three months after the first.

 

[Well b back 3,215]

Johnson now saying second dose will be 12 weeks.

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

Thanks, this is completely  logical for me as it allows them to get a level of protection to more people quickly, plus even better that when the 2nd jab is given it pushes up the level of protection.

 

Looks to me like a really tough couple of months but then things will start to improve gradually.

[Van wink 2,994]

51 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Johnson now saying second dose will be 12 weeks.

I think that came across this morning when this was presented as a means to prevent serious disease rather than prevent infection. The right decision of course in light of where we now are!

Edited December 30, 2020 by Van wink

[Well b back 3,215]

4 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I think that came across this morning when this was presented as a means to prevent serious disease rather than prevent infection. The right decision of course in light of where we now are!

But it’s for efficacy not for the reason he has just given.

[Van wink 2,994]

7 minutes ago, Well b back said:

But it’s for efficacy not for the reason he has just given.

Interesting Wbb. I am not clear on this one atm. Isn’t massive numbers with 70% efficacy the aim considering the dire straights we are in? When I heard this this morning, as I posted   at the time, it sounded like the Blair theory!

Edited December 30, 2020 by Van wink

[Indy 3,301]

13 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I think that came across this morning when this was presented as a means to prevent serious disease rather than prevent infection. The right decision of course in light of where we now are!

From what I’ve been told the T Cell production is key to cut transmissions and the Oxford vaccine not only trains our immune system S protein to fight Covid but also increased T Cell too. So will cut transmission too. Still to be confirmed as data will be key from key workers who will be immunised and monitored.

[Well b back 3,215]

1 minute ago, Van wink said:

Interesting Wbb. I am not clear on this one atm.

Just heard Sarah Gilbert and Pascal from AstraZeneca speaking. 
They should have been in the press conference much clearer now and apologies if any was wrong in last few minutes, but that press conference was like a message in Chinese whispers.

Firstly and most importantly AstraZeneca have confirmed that we will have 500,000 doses by Monday, and from there the transportation and production will be upped. He did not say where it was coming from, but the big numbers must be the Serum Institute. Excellent news.

Sarah Gilbert then explained that after close study of the data it was established that dose 1 will stop most hospitalisation and after 2 weeks give up to 70% efficacy, so therefore the regulators decided that they should recommend 1 dose with the second after 4 weeks but before 12 weeks. This was one hell of a result for getting quantities out and therefore more people vaccinated quickly. Of course if the Serum Institute are to be believed this is also the secret to 95% efficacy ( 80% according to SKY ) - excellent news especially if both Sarah Gilbert and The Serum Institute are correct.

[Van wink 2,994]

Yes thanks for that Wbb. It seems to fit with what I heard this morning, I think the aim now has to be preventing the illness becoming severe rather than preventing it all costs.

Edited December 30, 2020 by Van wink

[Tetteys Jig 830]

2 hours ago, Van wink said:

Interesting Wbb. I am not clear on this one atm. Isn’t massive numbers with 70% efficacy the aim considering the dire straights we are in? When I heard this this morning, as I posted   at the time, it sounded like the Blair theory!

if it's 70% plus no bad cases then I guess that's the best thing to do

[Well b back 3,215]

The whole Oxford story, good read

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55308216

[Well b back 3,215]

9 hours ago, Indy said:

 

I’ve read that initial findings indicate it could be the Oxford vaccine might have a two year longevity after the second shot, but for the life of me can’t find the article! Any idea WBB if that’s correct?

Hi Indy

Here is the official answer as this is from the Jenner website and based on the approval data ( I think that’s about as official as you can get ). I can see how somebody easily translated this into possibly 2 years, but equally it could be a year, five years, ten years or a lifetime. Hope that helps.

Will this vaccine become like the flu jab, and I'll need it every year?  

At this point we're unable to say, but other vaccines of this type are shown to produce an immune response lasting for a year or more.   

[Well b back 3,215]

Here finally is the press release and if you carry on scrolling down you will the MHRA advice and Oxford comments. 

https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Article/2020-12-30-regulatory-approval-of-coronavirus-vaccine

[sonyc 5,526]

Sir Simon Stevens has been the first to give an idea of timescales for the vaccine saying that 25m of the 9 priority groupings are expected to have received their dose by late Spring.

Edited December 31, 2020 by sonyc

[Well b back 3,215]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Sir Simon Stevens has been the first to give an idea of timescales for the vaccine saying that 25m of the 9 priority groupings are expected to have received their dose by late Spring.

That’s exactly my time table ( although I would have that 25 m as anyone that wanted a vaccination so a little bit higher ) we need AstraZeneca though to come out and confirm how many and when we are getting our doses.