Come on Sarah

[Well b back 3,208]

21 hours ago, Van wink said:

So the “emergency usage” is the categorisation of the current current approval?

Any idea what sort of timescale we are looking at for full approval? Is the emergency approval because of the current regime of delaying the second jab or is there some other reason why it’s only at emergency level atm?

sorry for all the questions 

Hi again VW

Thought you might find this video useful as to why we have been able to approve something so quickly. Although it doesn’t show the different authorisations, it does mention how it is constantly reviewed so you can move up levels, and if you use your imagination you will also see how as more and more information is available the longer you leave your approval, the more likely you are your countries regulators will give full approval, ie for Oxford-AstraZeneca us and India will supply more data than you could ever imagine.

Hope that helps and explains why the quicker you approve the more regulation you will need due to the data available. The Oxford-AstraZeneca trials are still ongoing and won’t stop.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-55281633
 

[Van wink 2,994]

14 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi again VW

Thought you might find this video useful as to why we have been able to approve something so quickly. Although it doesn’t show the different authorisations, it does mention how it is constantly reviewed so you can move up levels, and if you use your imagination you will also see how as more and more information is available the longer you leave your approval, the more likely you are your countries regulators will give full approval, ie for Oxford-AstraZeneca us and India will supply more data than you could ever imagine.

Hope that helps and explains why the quicker you approve the more regulation you will need due to the data available. The Oxford-AstraZeneca trials are still ongoing and won’t stop.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-55281633
 

Thanks, got a few contact tracing shifts lined up this week, will be thinking of you guys doing the jabs in my downtime, if there is any 😁

Edited January 11, 2021 by Van wink

[CANARYKING 638]

How is the vaccine roll out going ? There are three centres around here, none of them have had supplies!

[Barbe bleu 826]

31 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

How is the vaccine roll out going ? There are three centres around here, none of them have had supplies!

The government is giving out daily figures now at 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-people_who_have_received_vaccinations_by_report_date_daily

As of a couple of days ago it was 2.4 million had a jab, of which 400k have had both.  So 2.8million ish jabs in total.

Ricardo is putting these figures in the main chat together with international comparisons

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

3 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

The government is giving out daily figures now at 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-people_who_have_received_vaccinations_by_report_date_daily

As of a couple of days ago it was 2.4 million had a jab, of which 400k have had both.  So 2.8million ish jabs in total.

Ricardo is putting these figures in the main chat together with international comparisons

Thanks @Barbe bleu I couldn't get your link to work but this one did for me which has all the Covid data including vaccination.

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

 

This says up to yesterday there were just over 2.6m vaccine first doses given plus just over 400k getting 2nd doses as well.

 

Also it says the daily rate was 145k doses on Monday and 207k doses yesterday.  If we can keep up a daily rate of 207k doses then that's 6.2m people per month, hopefully we can actually increase that daily rate as more sites are opening etc.  However I've no idea whether that will be achievable 7 days per week and there's always the risk of snowfall or other disruptions to supply etc. 

 

Still, it's encouraging news, if you'd offered me this last April I'd have jumped at it !

Edited January 13, 2021 by It's Character Forming
Not reading the numbers properly - doh !

[CANARYKING 638]

My wife just had the call to volunteer at Southwold Surgery, unfortunately my poor kidneys prevent me from joining 

[Well b back 3,208]

33 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

My wife just had the call to volunteer at Southwold Surgery, unfortunately my poor kidneys prevent me from joining 

It’s a fantastic experience and gives you an amazing insight. 
She will get her 1st jab on day 1 as well.

[Well b back 3,208]

I thought I would share this article re Covax and how important Covax is. Without the world being vaccinated it will be difficult for anyone to be moving on.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covax-vaccine-access-for-developing-and-emerging-economies-by-ngozi-okonjo-iweala-2021-01

[Van wink 2,994]

Good, but not unexpected news about, at least some short term, post infection immunity. This of course doesnt prevent an individual contacting the virus, being symptom free and passing it on to others.

"People who have already contracted coronavirus are as protected against reinfection as those who have received the best Covid-19 vaccines, according to a survey of 20,000 UK healthcare workers, the largest study in the world so far. Public Health England regularly tested two matched groups of volunteers between June and November — 6,000 health workers who had previously been infected with coronavirus and 14,000 who had not. A comparison of infections in the two groups, described in preliminary results released on Thursday, found that prior infection provided at least 83 per cent protection against reinfection. It gave better than 94 per cent protection against symptomatic Covid-19, matching the figures for the most effective Covid-19 vaccines. Susan Hopkins, PHE senior medical adviser, said she was “strongly encouraged” by the finding that infection gave powerful — though not complete — protection against reinfection for at least five months. “Natural infection looks as good as a vaccine, which is very good news for the population,” she said. Although the study could not provide data on possible protection beyond five months, Prof Hopkins was optimistic that it would last for “much longer than the few months people were speculating about” during the early stages of the pandemic last year. “It will give a level of immunity in the community that will reduce transmission,” she said. During the study 44 people in the previously infected group of 6,000 tested positive at least three months apart, suggesting that they had been “potentially reinfected”. But because genomic analysis was not available to confirm that different viruses were responsible for the two infections, they were not considered proven reinfections. The same virus might have been incubated over a long period within the same individual, though the researchers thought this was less likely in most cases.

 Eleanor Riley, professor of virology at the University of Edinburgh, said the study data also suggested that people who had recovered from Covid-19 were less likely to transmit the virus to others unknowingly, because natural infection appeared to provide about 75 per cent protection against asymptomatic reinfection. “This is good news in terms of the long-term trends of the pandemic,” she said. Still, Prof Hopkins urged people “not to misunderstand these early findings”. “If you believe you already had the disease and are protected, you can be reassured it is highly unlikely you will develop severe infection but there is still a risk that you could acquire an infection and transmit to others,” she said. The cut-off point for the preliminary analysis in late November came too soon for the researchers to investigate how well vaccines — the first of which were approved for use in the UK in December — protected health workers in the study group. The researchers were also unable to assess the impact of the new and more contagious B.1.1.7 variant on rates of reinfection. PHE aims to expand the research project over the next three months to include 100,000 health workers and consider both of those questions.

Edited January 14, 2021 by Van wink

[Tetteys Jig 830]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-vaccination-rate-will-more-than-double-to-500-000-a-day-28p9hqz2g

this ties in more with my original more optimistic prediction for the vaccine rollout.

500k a day and we'd be done by early summer!

[Barbe bleu 826]

55 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-vaccination-rate-will-more-than-double-to-500-000-a-day-28p9hqz2g

this ties in more with my original more optimistic prediction for the vaccine rollout.

500k a day and we'd be done by early summer!

Half a million a day!  Let's hope so but think I'll set my expectation dial a bit lower to avoid disappointment 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Barbe bleu

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

Yesterday’s numbers (vaccines given Wednesday) 278k 1st doses and 9k 2nd doses , promising.

[Well b back 3,208]

4 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

Yesterday’s numbers (vaccines given Wednesday) 278k 1st doses and 9k 2nd doses , promising.

Indeed, still a way to go yet though.

The 2 defining bits will be if we get enough vaccine in time, and how the huge numbers needing their second jab in March / April will impact the next groups. Yesterday’s first jab for instance will have been rebooked for 8/4, so that will be 278,000 jabs being done that day before we even move to the next groups. The second dose will need to take priority when we get there or we could be back to square one.

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

35 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Indeed, still a way to go yet though.

The 2 defining bits will be if we get enough vaccine in time, and how the huge numbers needing their second jab in March / April will impact the next groups. Yesterday’s first jab for instance will have been rebooked for 8/4, so that will be 278,000 jabs being done that day before we even move to the next groups. The second dose will need to take priority when we get there or we could be back to square one.

Fair point WBB, it's still early days and vaccine production/delivery numbers are absolutely key.

 

If we get to 300k/day consistently (7 days per week) that will translate into 27m first doses after 90 days, and when you add the natural immunity from the current high infection levels by then that should really be helping hugely with the number of cases (and of course those 27m will be most of those at higher risk from the virus). 

 

If we look back at testing, last May (was it May ?)  we were struggling to get to 200k/day, whereas now we're regularly testing 500k/day.  With the vaccine being the ultimate solution to this problem, I am hopeful the whole supply chain from production through to jabbing will be steadily ramped up from now on, so that by April we're able to move on to even higher daily levels, so we can be giving all those 2nd jabs while still offering plenty of first jabs too. 

 

Not out of the woods, and I think the next few weeks are going to be really tough, but I'm optimistic we will start to see gradual improvement from early Feb onwards.

[Well b back 3,208]

2 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Fair point WBB, it's still early days and vaccine production/delivery numbers are absolutely key.

 

If we get to 300k/day consistently (7 days per week) that will translate into 27m first doses after 90 days, and when you add the natural immunity from the current high infection levels by then that should really be helping hugely with the number of cases (and of course those 27m will be most of those at higher risk from the virus). 

 

If we look back at testing, last May (was it May ?)  we were struggling to get to 200k/day, whereas now we're regularly testing 500k/day.  With the vaccine being the ultimate solution to this problem, I am hopeful the whole supply chain from production through to jabbing will be steadily ramped up from now on, so that by April we're able to move on to even higher daily levels, so we can be giving all those 2nd jabs while still offering plenty of first jabs too. 

 

Not out of the woods, and I think the next few weeks are going to be really tough, but I'm optimistic we will start to see gradual improvement from early Feb onwards.

Hi

On top of those 27 million 17 million of those will have needed a second dose during March and April for which appointments have and are  already booked. This is where I see the potential for a few hic ups. Therefore to meet the End of March target I believe we will need to do 44 million jabs ( happy to be corrected if I have missed something ).

 

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

Hi WBB, what's the end- March target, I can't remember ?

 

As I understand it, if we leave 12 weeks before the 2nd dose, anyone jabbed from today onwards will have their 2nd dose in mid-April onwards.  So between now and mid April, we only have to do 2.5m 2nd doses (because up to now, we've done 2.9m first doses and 400k 2nd doses) so if we can get to 300k/day, most of those will be 2nd doses ?

 

I agree totally, once the 300k/day people need their 2nd jab, you either need much higher daily numbers or your new first doses may be hugely reduced.  But I do hope it will be a gradual increase in the daily numbers over that period to avoid the problem.

[Well b back 3,208]

4 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Hi WBB, what's the end- March target, I can't remember ?

 

As I understand it, if we leave 12 weeks before the 2nd dose, anyone jabbed from today onwards will have their 2nd dose in mid-April onwards.  So between now and mid April, we only have to do 2.5m 2nd doses (because up to now, we've done 2.9m first doses and 400k 2nd doses) so if we can get to 300k/day, most of those will be 2nd doses ?

 

I agree totally, once the 300k/day people need their 2nd jab, you either need much higher daily numbers or your new first doses may be hugely reduced.  But I do hope it will be a gradual increase in the daily numbers over that period to avoid the problem.

It gets moved around lol.

I believe it was upto level 6 ie over 50’s, underlying conditions, healthcare workers which I believe equates to the the total you have mentioned as 27 million.

The deliveries are a key factor as well. You may have seen already in the West Midlands we are shooting ahead, in fact where I am helping WS we are already well into level 3, some of those being called to come in ( especially with little warning ) think it’s a hoax call, that is true I am not making that up. Had we have had enough vaccine we would probably have been able to vaccinate another 200 yesterday.

That’s not because ours are better than yours regards health services, it means our deliveries commenced earlier, you can’t give what you haven’t got. If you remember back to those Midlands News leaked reports, the areas doing the best are the same as those that it was said would be getting first deliveries.

Because it is U.K. policy to vaccinate groups in their order I suspect next week, areas that have struggled for supply will get some that was destined for us as where I am helping we don’t have a confirmed delivery date next week, but being mentioned it maybe the week after.

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

Thanks WBB.  So it's back of a fag packet maths & I'm using a number of 300k/day because we're currently close to that and capacity is continuing to increase with the aim to push it well higher, so it seems realistic that we should be able to get 300k per day consistently.  But as you say, it's all about getting the system running smoothly from production, deliveries and then actual vaccination.

 

So if we assume the 2nd jab is at 12 weeks = 84 days (which takes you to around 9th April from today), then starting now this would mean 25.2m vaccine doses given in the next 12 weeks.  Of those, 2.5m will be 2nd doses for people already vaccinated and the remainder will be first doses (we already have 400k people who've had their 2nd dose of the 2.9m vaccinated so far).  So by then, we'll have 25.6m people who've had their first dose, of whom 2.9m would have had a second dose as well.

 

Looking at the chart @sonyc helpfully posted recently, that takes us through the top 8 of the risk categories, basically everyone over 55, health/care workers, people with underlying conditions, which comes to about 25m people.

 

For me this is reassuring because it suggests that target is achievable, and if they can push up capacity any higher, then it will be reached quicker.

 

Also I'm in the 8th of those 8 categories (over 55) so fingers crossed I will get the vaccine early April !!

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

But from then, as you say, we'll suddenly need to do 300k/day 2nd doses, so new first doses will drop off unless the system has been really ramped up beyond 300k/day by then.

[Well b back 3,208]

2 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Thanks WBB.  So it's back of a fag packet maths & I'm using a number of 300k/day because we're currently close to that and capacity is continuing to increase with the aim to push it well higher, so it seems realistic that we should be able to get 300k per day consistently.  But as you say, it's all about getting the system running smoothly from production, deliveries and then actual vaccination.

 

So if we assume the 2nd jab is at 12 weeks = 84 days (which takes you to around 9th April from today), then starting now this would mean 25.2m vaccine doses given in the next 12 weeks.  Of those, 2.5m will be 2nd doses for people already vaccinated and the remainder will be first doses (we already have 400k people who've had their 2nd dose of the 2.9m vaccinated so far).  So by then, we'll have 25.6m people who've had their first dose, of whom 2.9m would have had a second dose as well.

 

Looking at the chart @sonyc helpfully posted recently, that takes us through the top 8 of the risk categories, basically everyone over 55, health/care workers, people with underlying conditions, which comes to about 25m people.

 

For me this is reassuring because it suggests that target is achievable, and if they can push up capacity any higher, then it will be reached quicker.

 

Also I'm in the 8th of those 8 categories (over 55) so fingers crossed I will get the vaccine early April !!

Dam I threw you, it’s level 8 end of March not 6 which gets to the 27 million. 
Think you might see the numbers getting their jab reduced for 2 or 3 days with the snow around the Country, but then again I know Staffordshire are on the move now.

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

Thanks, daily number is just under 317k today.

 

What's good news for me is that getting to 27m or thereabouts by early April is realistically achievable, it doesn't require an unrealistic increase.  Which is really encouraging.

 

[Herman 9,767]

Jab scepticism has seemed to have calmed down. Even people at work have gone from nervousness to now wanting 24hr sites being opened.

[Van wink 2,994]

29 minutes ago, Herman said:

Jab scepticism has seemed to have calmed down. Even people at work have gone from nervousness to now wanting 24hr sites being opened.

Thats good to hear, I think people are seeing the advantages now, my Mrs cant wait for me to get mine so that I will always be returned home when I get lost.

[CANARYKING 638]

Not nice weather to be queuing outside for your jab, snowing heavily here.

[Well b back 3,208]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

Jab scepticism has seemed to have calmed down. Even people at work have gone from nervousness to now wanting 24hr sites being opened.

Indeed something I have found, I was even talking ( at distance ) to an anti vaxer in the queue the other day.

Where we are we well into group 3. This is true - we have called some for an appointment who were not expecting their jab for a month who thought it was a hoax call.

[Well b back 3,208]

1 hour ago, CANARYKING said:

Not nice weather to be queuing outside for your jab, snowing heavily here.

I was hoping this wouldn’t happen.

[Herman 9,767]

 

[A Load of Squit 5,164]

5 minutes ago, Herman said:

 

Jabs? It's Salisbury. The vaccine should be smeared on the door handles of the historic cathedral with it's 123 metre spire. 

[Well b back 3,208]

3 hours ago, Herman said:

 

Cathedrals seem to be the in place round here Lichfield Cathedral 

[Herman 9,767]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

Cathedrals seem to be the in place round here Lichfield Cathedral 

Not a bad idea. Central, large and easier to keep clean. My auntie, out Essex way, had the jab in a library where all the books had been removed.