Come on Sarah

[Barbe bleu 831]

10 minutes ago, sonyc said:

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/new-online-calculator-estimates-how-23183277?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

I've just put my details in and unfortunately it's between 23/4/21 and 11/5/21 for me ☹️

About 20m plus ahead in the queue (am in my sixties).

Obviously this calculator is based on what we know now in estimating expected roll out dates. Yet, it's worth looking at for some perspective!

Lesser developed countries will be done in 2023 at that rate

[Well b back 3,250]

Reports that the FDA will be approving Moderna in the next 24 hours.

That should free up some more Pfizer.

[Well b back 3,250]

Those reports beginning to look accurate

More now on the news that a second coronavirus vaccine is nearing emergency approval in the US.

A panel of experts voted 20-0 with one abstention that the benefits of the Moderna vaccine outweighed the risks for those aged 18 and over. 

The same committee last week backed the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, which was then authorised for emergency use the following day.

Following the panel's endorsement, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) told Moderna that it would work "rapidly" towards issuing emergency use authorisation.

Regulators reported earlier this week that the Moderna vaccine was safe and 94% effective.

[Well b back 3,250]

So here’s the paper showing Oxford works in under 55’s. Surely we will see approval soon with over 55’s and underlying sticking to Pfizer and everyone else Oxford. 
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01194-5

[Well b back 3,250]

As reported earlier Moderna is now approved by The FDA and distribution will commence immediately.

[Well b back 3,250]

I think regards Oxford ( unless anyone can confirm this is a new interview & not the one from last week ) this tells us what we already knew. However more details on Pfizer meaning there is enough left over from 5 doses to have a 6th dose giving us 20% more than we thought we had.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9067075/Oxford-University-scientist-Covid-vaccine-hopes-UK-approval-isnt-far-off.html

 

 

 

 

[Well b back 3,250]

It seems those comments were today. Can we start to think we will hear something next week ?

The lead researcher behind the Oxford University coronavirus vaccine said she hopes approval for the vaccine "isn't too far off".

Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at the university, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that she never doubted what her team was doing but at times had worried about things they may have missed along the way.

Data shows the vaccine, which is currently with the UK's Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) for approval, has 62% efficacy when one full dose is given followed by another full dose, but when people were given a half dose followed by a full dose at least a month later, its efficacy rose to 90% - giving a combined average efficacy of 70.4%.

Prof Gilbert said: "So it wasn't quite the climax that it might have been. But we're very happy with the way the vaccine is performing, really looking forward to the point where people can start to be vaccinated outside of clinical trials. 

"Obviously I can't prejudge that moment, the regulators have to be given their time to make their decisions but I really hope that that moment isn't too far off."

 

 

[Van wink 2,994]

7 hours ago, Well b back said:

It seems those comments were today. Can we start to think we will hear something next week ?

The lead researcher behind the Oxford University coronavirus vaccine said she hopes approval for the vaccine "isn't too far off".

Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at the university, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that she never doubted what her team was doing but at times had worried about things they may have missed along the way.

Data shows the vaccine, which is currently with the UK's Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) for approval, has 62% efficacy when one full dose is given followed by another full dose, but when people were given a half dose followed by a full dose at least a month later, its efficacy rose to 90% - giving a combined average efficacy of 70.4%.

Prof Gilbert said: "So it wasn't quite the climax that it might have been. But we're very happy with the way the vaccine is performing, really looking forward to the point where people can start to be vaccinated outside of clinical trials. 

"Obviously I can't prejudge that moment, the regulators have to be given their time to make their decisions but I really hope that that moment isn't too far off."

 

 

Exclusive: Green light for Oxford coronavirus vaccine before new year

Senior Whitehall sources believe the MHRA will authorise the vaccines on December 28 or 29, after final data is provided to the regulator

ByLaura Donnelly,  HEALTH EDITOR18 December 2020 • 9:00pm

[Well b back 3,250]

Sorry @VanWink if this is the same article you got yours from but 28/ 29th getting quoted now because extra data is due in over Christmas.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/oxford-vaccine-approve-christmas-covid-b1776481.html

[Well b back 3,250]

And another one. Going by this and a number of other reports we will need this as we run out of our initial Pfizer order.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9070087/Oxford-vaccine-approved-New-Year-Whitehall-sources-say.html

 

[Well b back 3,250]

Whoops looks like the US messed up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55380288

[Well b back 3,250]

Interestingly, this report although the same credits Goverment sources and not Oxford-AstraZeneca 

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/oxford-vaccine-could-be-approved-within-days-of-christmas/19/12/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=oxford-vaccine-could-be-approved-within-days-of-christmas

[Well b back 3,250]

India now backing 28/29th December.

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/covid-19-vaccine-latest-updates-moderna-oxford-pfizer-7112336/

 

[Well b back 3,250]

TJ do you have any of your inside knowledge on these mutations ?. I won’t believe rumours, but there are rumours that the main variation is the Denmark Mink mutation ?. In which case looking back on here that decision to allow the Norwegian football team to play here could be disastrous. 
This does effect the vaccine as Pfizer will not be crossing the border in the coming days.

[Indy 3,307]

38 minutes ago, Well b back said:

TJ do you have any of your inside knowledge on these mutations ?. I won’t believe rumours, but there are rumours that the main variation is the Denmark Mink mutation ?. In which case looking back on here that decision to allow the Norwegian football team to play here could be disastrous. 
This does effect the vaccine as Pfizer will not be crossing the border in the coming days.

From the little I’ve gleaned there have been up to 17 mutations this year, each one no more serious than the first strain, as I’ve been told most mutations should be less or the same threat, viruses tend not to mutate in killing its host. This latest one has 22 changes in its mutation. I’d love to know more it’s an interesting subject, anyhow back to the little I’ve been told over the past eight months, so each mutation normally comes from either a species leap or environmental factor. It’s not the same type of mutation each time.

The core of the Covid virus won’t change and as such each vaccine which works can be tweaked to combat any mutation which becomes more threatening, but the key S proteins and our own T-cell response immunity shouldn’t change unless a real change in the mutation to a brand new Covid strain.

So as seen there are lots of changes and some scientists are putting the new strain in the uk to the faster rise in spread, but I question that as even if it’s more infectious it’s still needs the same paths to be spread and that’s down to people not being as thoughtful as they have been, call it Christmas effect or Covid lethargy but people aren’t being as carful that’s the biggest problem, now we see the consequences all over Europe as we close down again.

Edited December 21, 2020 by Indy

[Barbe bleu 831]

I haven't seen reports that the new variant is causing reinfection or that vaccinated people are being infected so probably not one for general concern.

I think most of us were already resigned to the possibility/probability of regular jabs that update the vaccine for the latest strain so no change here. Lets hope the scientists can respond quicker than the virus can adapt and that the surveillance is remains good.

 

[Indy 3,307]

20 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I haven't seen reports that the new variant is causing reinfection or that vaccinated people are being infected so probably not one for general concern.

I think most of us were already resigned to the possibility/probability of regular jabs that update the vaccine for the latest strain so no change here. Lets hope the scientists can respond quicker than the virus can adapt and that the surveillance is remains good.

 

Thing is BB once the strain is under control globally, like flu those at serious risk need to be vaccinated, then it’ll stop the undue pressure on the NHS, and keep the death toll down.

The other 60% of the population really don’t need to be vaccinated unless any mutation becomes more threatening to those not vulnerable with other issues.

This is a modern day threat which will be managed, we’ll be back to level of normality by middle of next year in my opinion from what I’ve been told.

Just for another point they said that up-to 30% of the population wouldn’t probably get infected, 45% would be Asymptomatic who transmit the virus les vigorously than those with symptoms, then only about 7% of Covid patients are hospitalised and then most being 70 +, with 1 in 5 over 80’s hospitalised and about 15% of them died.  These figures are questionable as from various online places, I don’t have time do do a full assessment so take these as a rough estimate, but still makes you think it’s not a huge amount worse than a bad Flu year.

Don’t get me wrong we all need to do our bit and Christmas should be small gatherings from the same family only, the vaccines are there, have a Christmas type gathering in April........patience not patients!

[Well b back 3,250]

Europeans approve Pfizer

BREAKINGEU medicines agency gives vaccine thumbs up

The European Medicines Agency (EMA) says it recommends use of the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine, paving the way for vaccinations to start in the EU within days.

Formal approval still has to be granted by the European Commission. 

Germany, France and Italy are among countries planning to start vaccinating on 27 December.

[Well b back 3,250]

EU readying themselves for the mass roll out of Pfizer. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/18/upshot/coronavirus-vaccines-prices-europe-united-states.html

[Barbe bleu 831]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

Thing is BB once the strain is under control globally, like flu those at serious risk need to be vaccinated, then it’ll stop the undue pressure on the NHS, and keep the death toll down.

Don’t get me wrong we all need to do our bit and Christmas should be small gatherings from the same family only, the vaccines are there, have a Christmas type gathering in April........patience not patients!

I think we agree.

This new strain is not unexpected.  I dug out this paper from August that shows just how common mutations to the spike protein are and how this n501Y mutation has been seen before. We weren't bothered then so shouldn't be now. What we should be bothered by are doing the things we know we should be doing, that is the real issue here not the deletion of one base pair or whatever it is.

https://europepmc.org/article/PPR/PPR203372

I think next summer we will largely have free choice over what to do. Im even hoping for spring. But let's get there the sensible way

Edited December 21, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Well b back 3,250]

MHRA coming under pressure to release Oxford immediately as this is becoming a ‘ race between catching COVID or being immune even if it’s 62 % ‘. 
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9075181/Britain-faces-calls-approve-Oxford-Universitys-coronavirus-vaccine-soon-possible.html

[Well b back 3,250]

WHO confirm there is zero evidence that vaccines won’t work against the mutations.

[Well b back 3,250]

Interestingly this Guardian article is on Jenners website. Sounds a good hint that we are mass production https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2020/dec/21/inside-oxfords-coronavirus-vaccine-development?CMP=share_btn_tw

 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

12 hours ago, Indy said:

From the little I’ve gleaned there have been up to 17 mutations this year, each one no more serious than the first strain, as I’ve been told most mutations should be less or the same threat, viruses tend not to mutate in killing its host. This latest one has 22 changes in its mutation. I’d love to know more it’s an interesting subject, anyhow back to the little I’ve been told over the past eight months, so each mutation normally comes from either a species leap or environmental factor. It’s not the same type of mutation each time.

The core of the Covid virus won’t change and as such each vaccine which works can be tweaked to combat any mutation which becomes more threatening, but the key S proteins and our own T-cell response immunity shouldn’t change unless a real change in the mutation to a brand new Covid strain.

So as seen there are lots of changes and some scientists are putting the new strain in the uk to the faster rise in spread, but I question that as even if it’s more infectious it’s still needs the same paths to be spread and that’s down to people not being as thoughtful as they have been, call it Christmas effect or Covid lethargy but people aren’t being as carful that’s the biggest problem, now we see the consequences all over Europe as we close down again.

this goes along with my thoughts. Not overwhelmingly concerned this mutation will itself push back the "back to normal" date back but it does mean a harder route there. We had our year end meeting at work today and the word from those better informed than me seemed to go along with this view as well.

There was a question asked about when we can get back to the office and a lot of the answer was about vaccination being the key and then whether it would protect you from transmitting the virus still. I am reasonably confident that by q2 we'll be starting to look at these sorts of things again, I just hope I can get vaccinated ASAP once those that need it more than I do get it.

Obviously these mutations are scary but they perversely give us the natural route out of this as well since usually these viruses get more contagious/infectious but less severe but this is fairly speculative at this point. I am getting more and more impatient about the Oxford vaccine approval but needs must with the steps that are required.

Personally, I see it as: Jan and much of Feb - total lockdowns and potentially school delayed return but with a huge vaccination programme where we get up to 1m a day vaccinated. It'll be approx max 50m people that will require this vaccination (perhaps less) so that takes us to end of Feb for jab 1 and end of march for jab 2.

While the jabs were 90 odd percent effective by definition, hopefully for the remaining 10% a degree of protection is there to reduce symptoms to nothing worse than a bad cold but its too early to tell.

March will be the key to see just how well this jab works and we'll have improving weather hopefully on our side. April to August will be opening up/some uncertainty and pressures as to just how quick we do and then we'll have a tense autumn where we anxiously await any 2021 winter wave starting up. I suspect that infections will bubble through at low levels for a while yet so we may have a kinda 90% new normal for a year or 2. Once the threat of an overwhelmed health system is over then much of the most restrictive and irrational asks of population control will inevitably end. Masks and better surveillance etc. Will be here for a while yet but hugging your gran and hooking up at house parties will be back to "personal responsibility" I'd hope. Either way, they are going to have to find another answer to containment than lockdowns as we can't go on like this for much longer.

I do worry that for the next few weeks the government will be chasing their tails and it'll be then forced to act in early Jan when things look really bleak. Anyone heard anything about the nightingales being prepared?

[Indy 3,307]

8 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

this goes along with my thoughts. Not overwhelmingly concerned this mutation will itself push back the "back to normal" date back but it does mean a harder route there. We had our year end meeting at work today and the word from those better informed than me seemed to go along with this view as well.

There was a question asked about when we can get back to the office and a lot of the answer was about vaccination being the key and then whether it would protect you from transmitting the virus still. I am reasonably confident that by q2 we'll be starting to look at these sorts of things again, I just hope I can get vaccinated ASAP once those that need it more than I do get it.

Obviously these mutations are scary but they perversely give us the natural route out of this as well since usually these viruses get more contagious/infectious but less severe but this is fairly speculative at this point. I am getting more and more impatient about the Oxford vaccine approval but needs must with the steps that are required.

Personally, I see it as: Jan and much of Feb - total lockdowns and potentially school delayed return but with a huge vaccination programme where we get up to 1m a day vaccinated. It'll be approx max 50m people that will require this vaccination (perhaps less) so that takes us to end of Feb for jab 1 and end of march for jab 2.

While the jabs were 90 odd percent effective by definition, hopefully for the remaining 10% a degree of protection is there to reduce symptoms to nothing worse than a bad cold but its too early to tell.

March will be the key to see just how well this jab works and we'll have improving weather hopefully on our side. April to August will be opening up/some uncertainty and pressures as to just how quick we do and then we'll have a tense autumn where we anxiously await any 2021 winter wave starting up. I suspect that infections will bubble through at low levels for a while yet so we may have a kinda 90% new normal for a year or 2. Once the threat of an overwhelmed health system is over then much of the most restrictive and irrational asks of population control will inevitably end. Masks and better surveillance etc. Will be here for a while yet but hugging your gran and hooking up at house parties will be back to "personal responsibility" I'd hope. Either way, they are going to have to find another answer to containment than lockdowns as we can't go on like this for much longer.

I do worry that for the next few weeks the government will be chasing their tails and it'll be then forced to act in early Jan when things look really bleak. Anyone heard anything about the nightingales being prepared?

Thanks TJ, pretty much as I’ve been told, I’m no expert just an engineer, but lucky to have a friend involved, a level headed guy who utterly deplores some of the scaremongering which some in the science community lead our press down and they lap it up!

Looks like we might be to a level of normality, whatever normality will be? By next summer, but do you think the high risk will be vaccinated again in September along with their flu jab, to prevent that next winter wave?

[Well b back 3,250]

12 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

this goes along with my thoughts. Not overwhelmingly concerned this mutation will itself push back the "back to normal" date back but it does mean a harder route there. We had our year end meeting at work today and the word from those better informed than me seemed to go along with this view as well.

There was a question asked about when we can get back to the office and a lot of the answer was about vaccination being the key and then whether it would protect you from transmitting the virus still. I am reasonably confident that by q2 we'll be starting to look at these sorts of things again, I just hope I can get vaccinated ASAP once those that need it more than I do get it.

Obviously these mutations are scary but they perversely give us the natural route out of this as well since usually these viruses get more contagious/infectious but less severe but this is fairly speculative at this point. I am getting more and more impatient about the Oxford vaccine approval but needs must with the steps that are required.

Personally, I see it as: Jan and much of Feb - total lockdowns and potentially school delayed return but with a huge vaccination programme where we get up to 1m a day vaccinated. It'll be approx max 50m people that will require this vaccination (perhaps less) so that takes us to end of Feb for jab 1 and end of march for jab 2.

While the jabs were 90 odd percent effective by definition, hopefully for the remaining 10% a degree of protection is there to reduce symptoms to nothing worse than a bad cold but its too early to tell.

March will be the key to see just how well this jab works and we'll have improving weather hopefully on our side. April to August will be opening up/some uncertainty and pressures as to just how quick we do and then we'll have a tense autumn where we anxiously await any 2021 winter wave starting up. I suspect that infections will bubble through at low levels for a while yet so we may have a kinda 90% new normal for a year or 2. Once the threat of an overwhelmed health system is over then much of the most restrictive and irrational asks of population control will inevitably end. Masks and better surveillance etc. Will be here for a while yet but hugging your gran and hooking up at house parties will be back to "personal responsibility" I'd hope. Either way, they are going to have to find another answer to containment than lockdowns as we can't go on like this for much longer.

I do worry that for the next few weeks the government will be chasing their tails and it'll be then forced to act in early Jan when things look really bleak. Anyone heard anything about the nightingales being prepared?

Regards the Nightingales @sonyc has been in a similar scenario as us in Birmingham. We have been told they are opening, but then local news has always had the NHS rolled out to say no staff to man them. The way the new virus is spreading however you would think they have to find a way.

One major concern I have is although Oxford is also being made in U.K. the majority will be produced in India. I hope it can be flown in ok with borders being closed.

[Mark .Y. 352]

24 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Regards the Nightingales @sonyc has been in a similar scenario as us in Birmingham. We have been told they are opening, but then local news has always had the NHS rolled out to say no staff to man them. The way the new virus is spreading however you would think they have to find a way.

One major concern I have is although Oxford is also being made in U.K. the majority will be produced in India. I hope it can be flown in ok with borders being closed.

I'm sure that will be fine Wbb, even if we have to use the military and test them before they fly, I don't envisage a problem there.

[Well b back 3,250]

This has just been released re Pfizer. As far as Oxford goes I am pretty sure that it was them pointing out the mutations to the Goverment in September so I would think they have already used their own modeling.

It is "highly likely" the BioNTech vaccine will work against the new variant of coronavirus found in the UK, the company's chief executive has said.

Ugur Sahin said he wasn't 100% sure the vaccine is also able to provide protection against this new variant". 

"But scientifically, it is highly likely that the immune response by this vaccine also can deal with the new virus variant," he added. 

The UK was the first country in the world to approve the Pfizer/BionTech vaccine for use and it began to be rolled out earlier this month.

[Well b back 3,250]

I think this is good news with a spokesman from MHRA seemingly backing the Oxford story of approval by the end of the year.

https://theprint.in/health/uk-says-oxford-vaccine-review-ongoing-wont-be-approved-until-safety-efficacy-standards-met/571274/

[Well b back 3,250]

India ( have a lot riding on this ) are now using the date 28/29th December for the approval of the Oxford vaccine.

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/covid-19-vaccine-latest-updates-moderna-oxford-pfizer-7112336/