Corona Virus main thread

[Well b back 3,231]

Winter programme of booster and immunisation to be announced in next 3 weeks.

[ricardo 7,395]

Official Website finally updated local numbers

Local

Norwich infection rate up from  339.3  to 347.2 

[Barbe bleu 829]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Europe ( like most of the rest of the world ) vaccinate down 12 years old, so consequently on % of population vaccinated they have lots more to vaccinate and over the next couple of weeks will be passing us on % of population. France is however an interesting case as they have always been amongst the most anti to vaccinations, but it seems this may not be the case with COVID vaccines.

Countries that aim to vax everyone down to the over 12 should all overtake us on jabs per head of population eventually.

At the moment we have 120 jabs per capita (all ages) the EU average is 100 so there is someway for them to go yet. At current rates they will catch up in the not too distant but within 2 weeks seems optimistic

 

Every country seems to have anti vax movements but they seems to be centred on different things.  For us we famously had MMR concerns but they barely registered in France where concerns were hep b.  I guess it's all about bandwagon to jump on.

 

[sonyc 5,539]

2 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

I wish the Govt would be firmer in nudging them to have it, like Macron.

Agree with this. There has been some messaging about the programme but not targeted much. Well, not targeted at all really.

I posted a graph earlier about vaccinations by age group. Still, a sizeable percentage of 30s and 40s remain singly or non vaccinated. It can't be that this section of these cohorts are the most antagonistic to vaccination surely? There might be some folk who are really awkward though (and expect we've all met one or two). You cannot really explain or persuade them. 

Johnson has the time now to really motor on - at least with stronger and more consistency in his communication. But it's not his way is it?

Its the same with mask wearing - left to businesses / public transport to try and guide customers, knowing they have no authority in law. Most where we live though (80% as a guess) seem to be wearing them. Anything really now we are opened up to try and suppress new infections. The trouble with the latter is that we risk so many folk isolating and daily society starts to unravel, and there are signs of this already. Simple public health messages reinforced to go along with the 'freedom' really. I believe the public is open to this kind of caution (agreed with Burnham earlier).  Passporting seems another area Johnson is coy about too. Yet it opens up practicalities that can then be solved.

Weird that to have freedom you need some parameters! A complete 'free for all' I fear is unhelpful and counter-productive ultimately. Far too laisssez faire.

 

[sonyc 5,539]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Winter programme of booster and immunisation to be announced in next 3 weeks.

That's interesting WBB. This article from this morning talks of concerns at reducing efficacy (after a worryingly short time). So I am very pleased that you've seen notification about this. Have you read any articles about how long vaccination effects last? Not seen much about this. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/22/uk-scientists-back-covid-boosters-as-study-finds-post-jab-falls-in-antibodies

Another thread here (in relation to Israel). I follow this blokes regular analysis on Twitter.

 

I heard today too that it might be a good 10 years before we move on from Covid.  Whilst that sounds a long time (longer for some of us than others) it makes sense when you consider it took decades to recover from the most recent national emergency, WW2. If this is the case of a good decade then yearly boosters will be a must. 

Perhaps those more expert epidemiologist-minded on this thread have ideas on this?

Edited July 22, 2021 by sonyc

[Barbe bleu 829]

32 minutes ago, sonyc said:

That's interesting WBB. This article from this morning talks of concerns at reducing efficacy (after a worryingly short time). So I am very pleased that you've seen motivation about this. Have you read any articles about how long vaccination effects last? Not seen much about this. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/22/uk-scientists-back-covid-boosters-as-study-finds-post-jab-falls-in-antibodies

I heard today too that it might be a good 10 years before we move on from Covid.  Whilst that sounds a long time (longer for some of us than others) it makes sense when you consider it took decades to recover from the most recent national emergency, WW2. If this is the case of a good decade then yearly boosters will be a must. 

Perhaps those more expert epidemiologist-minded on this thread have ideas on this?

Odd story there. Headline is about declining antibody levels in blood but the article then goes on to explain why blood antibody levels are not a particularly important measurement of immunity.

Edited July 22, 2021 by Barbe bleu

[sonyc 5,539]

10 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Odd story there. Headline is about declining antibody levels in blood but the article then goes on to explain why blood antibody levels are not a particularly important measurement of immunity.

I'm really not an expert in this BB but I do remember one of your posts from the distant past where you discussed T cells so maybe this section is what you're alluding to below (in orange)? I must confess to being confused hence my question to those folk on here who have a far better grip and understanding. I'm nothing but an interested / amateur observer really. I had felt more confident that vaccinations might last perhaps a year or so rather than a few months (reading the drift of this article) but now I'm less convinced. I suppose only time will tell (we are still only in the early stages of this pandemic are we not?). I'm sure we may read more quite soon as studies emerge.

 

While antibody levels are important for protection, the immune system has other defences that are built up after infection or vaccination. It is normal for antibody levels to wane over time and for the immune system to “remember” the infection with memory B cells. Should the virus invade, these cells rapidly churn out antibodies targeted at the virus. Further protection comes from T cells, which destroy infected cells and limit the severity of disease.

“Antibodies are not the perfect measure of risk; we don’t know if there’s a magic number, as it were, where the risk of infection or hospitalisation becomes important,” said Aldridge. “But we think these data support the JCVI case for boosters, with priority for the clinically vulnerable, the over-70s, and all people living in residential care homes for older adults.”

The findings have been considered by the JCVI but are unlikely to have a major impact on discussions over boosters. A loss of antibodies is a warning sign that vaccines may wear off over time but does not say when that point comes.

[Barbe bleu 829]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

I'm really not an expert in this BB but I do remember one of your posts from the distant past where you discussed T cells so maybe this section is what you're alluding to below (in orange)? I must confess to being confused hence my question to those folk on here who have a far better grip and understanding. I'm nothing but an interested / amateur observer really. I had felt more confident that vaccinations might last perhaps a year or so rather than a few months (reading the drift of this article) but now I'm less convinced. I suppose only time will tell (we are still only in the early stages of this pandemic are we not?). I'm sure we may read more quite soon as studies emerge.

 

While antibody levels are important for protection, the immune system has other defences that are built up after infection or vaccination. It is normal for antibody levels to wane over time and for the immune system to “remember” the infection with memory B cells. Should the virus invade, these cells rapidly churn out antibodies targeted at the virus. Further protection comes from T cells, which destroy infected cells and limit the severity of disease.

“Antibodies are not the perfect measure of risk; we don’t know if there’s a magic number, as it were, where the risk of infection or hospitalisation becomes important,” said Aldridge. “But we think these data support the JCVI case for boosters, with priority for the clinically vulnerable, the over-70s, and all people living in residential care homes for older adults.”

The findings have been considered by the JCVI but are unlikely to have a major impact on discussions over boosters. A loss of antibodies is a warning sign that vaccines may wear off over time but does not say when that point comes.

The way I explain it to myself.

The adaptive immune system has two main types of cell: T cells and C cells.

T cells target foreign objects within our cells, B cells go for these foreign pathogens between cells ( for instance in blood or on organ walls)

We are born with millions of b cells (and T cells for that matter) all very slightly different from one another (if you like they all have slightly different surface shapes and therefore a unique 'fingerprint') . Most of these cells do nothing for out entire life but occasionally one will bump into a foreign object with a surface shape that is roughly the negative of the cell's surface. Some people describe this pathogen as having the lock into which the B cells key will fit. When it does the cell will bind to the pathogen

At this point the B cell does two things: secrete antibodies and signal for clones of itself to be produced to aid the fight.

The antibodies are simple structures that also bind to the surface shape.   When they do they, amongst other things, interfere with its functioning. In the case of covid when a antibody attaches itself to the spike protein it changes the shape of the protein and stops it from binding to the ACE2 receptors and stops the virus from getting into our cells.

At first the antibodies released only vaguely work, but it's better than nothing.  As the battle continues the immune system evolves the surface shape to get  better fit and switches to a more specialist class of antibody. 

Once the battle is over the body keeps a memory bank of evolved B cells. The next time the body encounters the same thing it has a ready made well trained army to bring to bear. The point of vaccine is to introduce the immune system to the pathogen (or relevant part of the pathogen) and allow it to discover the ideal fit and put down a memory without risk of disease.

It would be crazy for the b cells to constantly secrete antibodies useful only against against a vanquished and absent foe so once the enemy is gone secretion stops.  Falling antibody levels are usually a good sign that the infection is cured and to drops are to be expected. That doesn't mean that the army in the reserve memory is any less capable of acting immediately and successfully.

What is being measured here is antibodies in serum (in the blood) but a different class of antibodies is also to be found in the throat, gut, stomach etc linings (ie the mucous membranes) These antibodies can be fixed or secreted into the mucus with the aim of stopping the pathogen from getting into the body in the first place. Unlike serum antibodies we do want these to linger, but as vigilent sentries rather than infantry wandering around the blood looking for a fight.

A possible problem with an injected vaccine is that it bypasses the mucus membranes so it is unclear(at least to me) if it activates this part of the immune system in the same way as it does the serum element.

 

 

 

 

[Well b back 3,231]

4 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Rolling 7 day rate for new cases still rising but not in such a dramatic fashion now. On a small note the % of adults who have had the first dose has dropped by a few tenths of 1% due to the population of the UK now being used on a mid 2020 estimate, previously it was based on an older population total model. Now stands at 87.8%

Not sure if you are watching ITV News but they are reporting a worrying trend that likely positives are no longer testing. Nobody knows the reasons at present, but it got very worrying when they said possibilities included not being prepared to take time off work, don’t want to cancel a holiday, people are testing negative on a LF but with symptoms and not bothering with a PCR. 

[Capt. Pants 4,260]

Food industry staff no longer have isolate if pinged. A negative test will do.

Partial u-turn with more to come I suspect.

[Yellow Fever 3,804]

39 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Not sure if you are watching ITV News but they are reporting a worrying trend that likely positives are no longer testing. Nobody knows the reasons at present, but it got very worrying when they said possibilities included not being prepared to take time off work, don’t want to cancel a holiday, people are testing negative on a LF but with symptoms and not bothering with a PCR. 

This has been my concern for ages as many previous comments . For many, if their symptoms appear mild they may 'choose' to carry on for selfish reasons or human nature. Its why I stick to ONS. Random sampling see through this and other non random test issues.

Edited July 22, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Well b back 3,231]

At the moment we have 120 jabs per capita (all ages) the EU average is 100 so there is someway for them to go yet. At current rates they will catch up in the not too distant but within 2 weeks seems optimistic

Taken from today’s data, real time, and based on % of population, but I have also popped in number of doses. The average across the EU ( there are nations signed in other than the 27 ) 1st dose 57% 2nd dose 45.5% total 443,156,243. For comparison purposes U.K. currently give 226,122 per day, Germany 524,328 and France 702,788 however Germany expected to be moving back to near 1 million and France likely to increase to 1 million. Some 1st doses will be fully vaccinated as Johnson and Johnson used and only needs 1 dose.

Rightly or wrongly EU believe 70% of population vaccinated could result in herd immunity.

U.K. 1 dose 69.5% 2 doses 54.8% doses given 83,021,749

Germany 60.5% 48% 87,873,728 - slowed down for a couple of days due to flood but doses increasing again now.

Spain 65% 53.9% 59,879,267

France 60.2% 49.8% 68,028,057

Belgium 68.3% 50.6% 13,307,791

Iceland ( part of EU rollout ) 74.8 70.6 487,976

Denmark 69.2 49.6% 6,839,294

Most of these have now overtaken Israel.

 

 

 

[Van wink 2,994]

9 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

Looking at the explanation on the Zoe App, in a long winded way this is basically what it's saying.  Definitely disappointing for the App.

 

We've been flagging on here for some time that the Zoe App numbers were unexpectedly flat, and they've revised the methodology which has given a big jump in both daily numbers and active infections.  Meanwhile the daily testing positive numbers are now starting to look a bit unexpectedly flat....

 

 

It seems to be largely down to the demographics of the user base, as you say we pointed this out some time ago, took them a while to catch up 😉

[Van wink 2,994]

3 hours ago, Well b back said:

Not sure if you are watching ITV News but they are reporting a worrying trend that likely positives are no longer testing. Nobody knows the reasons at present, but it got very worrying when they said possibilities included not being prepared to take time off work, don’t want to cancel a holiday, people are testing negative on a LF but with symptoms and not bothering with a PCR. 

I didn’t see it but not surprised, I’m not sure folk really appreciate the change in symptoms from the original definition either.

[Well b back 3,231]

10 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I didn’t see it but not surprised, I’m not sure folk really appreciate the change in symptoms from the original definition either.

Not even seen it written anywhere. I wonder if they have advance warning that the ons figures tomorrow are not looking good ? We will have to wait until Noon to see. 
If and I express if they are right, they need to be careful with the figures they are using. If low cases numbers are wrong cases look good but hospital % will look higher than it is. I seem to remember one of the other reasons they gave for people not testing was the really positives % against tests.

[It's Character Forming 1,164]

10 hours ago, Well b back said:

At the moment we have 120 jabs per capita (all ages) the EU average is 100 so there is someway for them to go yet. At current rates they will catch up in the not too distant but within 2 weeks seems optimistic

Taken from today’s data, real time, and based on % of population, but I have also popped in number of doses. The average across the EU ( there are nations signed in other than the 27 ) 1st dose 57% 2nd dose 45.5% total 443,156,243. For comparison purposes U.K. currently give 226,122 per day, Germany 524,328 and France 702,788 however Germany expected to be moving back to near 1 million and France likely to increase to 1 million. Some 1st doses will be fully vaccinated as Johnson and Johnson used and only needs 1 dose.

Rightly or wrongly EU believe 70% of population vaccinated could result in herd immunity.

U.K. 1 dose 69.5% 2 doses 54.8% doses given 83,021,749

Germany 60.5% 48% 87,873,728 - slowed down for a couple of days due to flood but doses increasing again now.

Spain 65% 53.9% 59,879,267

France 60.2% 49.8% 68,028,057

Belgium 68.3% 50.6% 13,307,791

Iceland ( part of EU rollout ) 74.8 70.6 487,976

Denmark 69.2 49.6% 6,839,294

Most of these have now overtaken Israel.

 

 

 

The question of vaccinating under 18s is tricky and I hadn’t realised most of the world is now going down to age 12. For me the question is about the benefit of the vaccine to that group against the risk of side effects, given the low level of serious Covid cases in under 18s. I’ve not seen any discussion on this?

 

Also herd immunity will come from a combination of vaccines and natural immunity from having had Covid. The last ONS data I saw showed that level (ie antibodies) at around 90% of the adult population which is very encouraging.

 

Ultimately now we’ve lifted all restrictions for the first time since March 20, the only limits on Covid spreading are immunity plus personal measures such as people who are voluntarily wearing masks and continuing to social distance. I saw a scientist on TV make the point that herd immunity is a gradual process, as immunity increases, it dampens down the infections until ultimately there is a tipping point where the R number falls below 1 and the pandemic gradually then declines. The question for everyone now is how quickly that happens.

 

England has hit headlines by removing all restrictions, but the truth is it’s only marginally ahead eg almost all US states have removed all restrictions so exactly the same (because it’s not the entire country it doesn’t hit the headlines) and I think they’ve been rolled back in Europe to a large extent too.

 

Also this herd immunity will be uneven in that under 18s in the UK are only acquiring immunity through infection, and I don’t think the ONS covers them, so we don’t know how far along that part of the population is. My daughter is in that category and most of her friends have now had Covid (although not her as far as we know and she has been regularly testing herself) so my guess is that the process is pretty far along, I wish we had some information about this though.

 

If you have immunity across 70% of your entire population but the 30% include a lot of people who mix more with the other 30% ( such as under 18s ) then it seems to me you are still going to get widespread outbreaks centred on that group so it will take longer to achieve full herd immunity across the whole population.

[Yellow Fever 3,804]

Vaccinating the under 16's (I would vaccinate the 16+ now as generally out and about) is a tricky one - but I would add we all do things for the  greater good of society* else we have no society at all. 

Agree with the general herd immunity comments but don't forget you can catch the virus more than once and the vaccines are not 100% effective. Full herd immunity (and yes it of course its patchy) is generally a little more difficult to achieve than we think. 

Edited July 23, 2021 by Yellow Fever
* Johnson excepted.

[Yellow Fever 3,804]

ONS - If I've got it right England has upped by about 16% on the week - definitely slowing  - doubling time of the order of a month.

[ricardo 7,395]

49 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

ONS - If I've got it right England has upped by about 16% on the week - definitely slowing  - doubling time of the order of a month.

Nine days was always nonsense 

 

[Yellow Fever 3,804]

11 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Nine days was always nonsense 

 

No. it was correct at the time. However these number are before the latest relaxations so its very likely to pickup again. Zoe if you like !

 

Woops - I made a mistake on he doubling - picked up the confidence limits not the increase. Need to look again. 

Edited July 23, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[ricardo 7,395]

7 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

No. it was correct at the time. However these number are before the latest relaxations so its very likely to pickup again. Zoe if you like !

Already past peak by look of things. Anybody looking for 100/200k is going to be disappointed.

[Herman 9,793]

29 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Already past peak by look of things. Anybody looking for 100/200k is going to be disappointed.

Gutted.😉

[ricardo 7,395]

 

[Yellow Fever 3,804]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Already past peak by look of things. Anybody looking for 100/200k is going to be disappointed.

Corrected my previous error (sorry old Directors never quite fade away - had a call)  - England - 16th July ONS release was 577K, 23rd July 742K. That's a 28% increase in a week or a doubling of just over 2 weeks.

100K a certainty (England alone)! 

Edited July 23, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[It's Character Forming 1,164]

Fingers crossed the ONS data is promising.  On the regional breakdown, the NE and the NW are shown as having passed their peaks and now on a slightly downward trajectory.  In the past this has only happened after introduction of lockdown.  Other regions are mostly flattening, i.e. still increasing but at a lower trajectory.

 

The next question is - how unrestricted were things really before 19th July?  Is it a case that people who wanted to, were actually mixing freely so 19th July won't make much difference.  Or, has there been increased mixing which is likely to see another step up in new case numbers ?

 

My guess is the latter, that we will see case numbers rise somewhat, but I think it will be a modest increase before we then see a downturn.  Anyone else got their crystal ball ?  Any projections that look worth checking ?

[Yellow Fever 3,804]

2 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Fingers crossed the ONS data is promising.  On the regional breakdown, the NE and the NW are shown as having passed their peaks and now on a slightly downward trajectory.  In the past this has only happened after introduction of lockdown.  Other regions are mostly flattening, i.e. still increasing but at a lower trajectory.

 

The next question is - how unrestricted were things really before 19th July?  Is it a case that people who wanted to, were actually mixing freely so 19th July won't make much difference.  Or, has there been increased mixing which is likely to see another step up in new case numbers ?

 

My guess is the latter, that we will see case numbers rise somewhat, but I think it will be a modest increase before we then see a downturn.  Anyone else got their crystal ball ?  Any projections that look worth checking ?

Wouldn't disagree - it will keep rising especially in the higher population areas. All those night clubs, late night and pubs. It will still take a coupe of weeks for the 19th to really show through.

Todays confirmed tests may be high I suspect, but no matter - if it shocks some then good but its really these ONS ones that tells the story and ZOE if its back in calibration with the Wiveton (w)one.

[ricardo 7,395]

National

36,389 - 64

A massive drop from last Friday

rate of increase 11.4% (7 days)

😉 Who'd a thunk it.

There may be another peak but we've seen this one come and go.

Local

Norwich infection rate up from   339.3  to  361.4     

(9 patients in N&N)

Vax 1st Dose      43,000               87.9% done                 Norwich numbers   75.2% 2nd Dose     174,742              69.5% done                                                   53.7%
22-07-2021             5,001 21-07-2021 4,868 20-07-2021 4,686 19-07-2021 4,605 18-07-2021 4,300 17-07-2021 4,190 16-07-2021 4,115 15-07-2021 4,001

 

Edited July 23, 2021 by ricardo

[canarydan23 4,060]

I've not been following this but as a general rule, whatever ricardo predicts almost certainly won't happen.

[ricardo 7,395]

2 minutes ago, canarydan23 said:

I've not been following this but as a general rule, whatever ricardo predicts almost certainly won't happen.

Too late, it already has😉

[Tetteys Jig 830]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Wouldn't disagree - it will keep rising especially in the higher population areas. All those night clubs, late night and pubs. It will still take a coupe of weeks for the 19th to really show through.

Todays confirmed tests may be high I suspect, but no matter - if it shocks some then good but its really these ONS ones that tells the story and ZOE if its back in calibration with the Wiveton (w)one.

I suspect many of the younguns that went clubbing won't bother get a test so you'd only really see if they end up infecting colleagues/family or get particularly ill