Corona Virus main thread

[Indy 3,307]

48 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

For me the bald facts are pretty clear.

We have a highly transmissible variant on the loose. It's already seeded across the UK in many areas.

We have relaxed / abandoned all pretense at social distancing in the last few days apart from the largest of get togethers.

The people most likely to mix, catch and then spread the disease - the under 40's, are largely unvaccinated or only very recently had 1 dose (J & J noted).

There is almost nothing in place to stop the variant spreading through this group at its full R0 speed - as I'm sure it will.

This group will go home and meet indoors with the more elderly parents, grandparents, aunts and uncles let alone work colleagues  (all now fair game) to make sure each and everyone one of us, vaccinated or not, has full 'contact' with the virus.

Have I got anything wrong here? 

Remember apologists to leave Johnson et al in your legacy.

Remember that 94% or more now of the first nine groups and vulnerable have had both vaccines, these were nearly 87% of the hospitalised numbers, of those 15% ultimately passed away with Covid.

Though these pockets are certainly a concern and need to be acted on very seriously it’s really not the same scenario as other potential waves.

We just need to ride it out, see where things go and if things start really to escalate no doubt the government will delay the next stage. I believe as last summer where we are now is as far as we should be and we have four weeks to evaluate before the next phase.

[ricardo 7,395]

53 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

No sign yet of the mass influx of visitors to Cornwall. Yes there are plenty but not the expected and forecasted no room at the inn.

Which is good as our figures are so low and only rise in a hotspot such as a production line.

Of course, we may see a surge in visitors next weekend. After that we go in lockdown because of the ridiculous G7 conference in St Ives.

With this weather it is no surprise.

Went out for a walk, more like March than late May.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

19 minutes ago, ricardo said:

With this weather it is no surprise.

Went out for a walk, more like March than late May.

Wind is horrendous down here. And if its raining in Cornwall, there isn't much to do.

[Essjayess 307]

3 hours ago, ricardo said:

Watch the numbers closley for the next few days. The upticks in the outbreak areas are largely counteracted by the general downturn everywhere else. If it escapes the suppression tactics it will become quickly apparent in the numbers.

My impression is that there are sufficient numbers already vax'd in the UK to prevent any large third wave. Nationally there were 16k infections in the previous seven days. Yesterday in France alone there were 19k in one day, 12k in Germany and around 6k in Italy and Spain. They appear to be some way behind us yet are opening up to U.K travellers. If the UK is not yet safe then Europe certainly isn't, holidays in N.Norfolk or Cornwall please.

Nearly all areas of Lancashire show new cases rising with of course the Bolton / Blackburn area much the worst and apart from other areas where there moderate rises like Bedford, Hounslow etc most of the UK continues right now with either stable or actual falling numbers. If those harder hit areas above were showing the same  results as rest of UK we would now be around the 13k or less a week cases. As ever with this pandemic its a wait and see scenario, hence why Boris and co. are waiting till June 14th to decide on any changes to June 21st plans.

[It's Character Forming 1,164]

Had anyone seen any numbers on what % of 20/30 somethings are already vaccinated due to e.g. working for the NHS, high risk, knowing someone at the vaccine centre and getting a call at 5pm when they had doses left over etc? I know quite a few people in all these categories and I wonder how much it may help stop the spread of the new variant there?

[ricardo 7,395]

National

2829 -9

Local

Another big jabbing day. Closing in on 700k

[It's Character Forming 1,164]

Vaccine booster trial being launched, I think it's aimed at people who had their first jab in December or January ?  This link is for Leicester but other locations are also available.

 

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/call-leicester-people-take-part-5435614

 

 

[Van wink 2,994]

So in France I am seeing over 12k new infections a day, well over 100 deaths per day, yet they are opening up?

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

So in France I am seeing over 12k new infections a day, well over 100 deaths per day, yet they are opening up?

 

Spain also but it is really only Valencia area that is anything near safe. Its like us saying don't go to Blackburn but Preston is better.

They really are worried for the Summer.

[ricardo 7,395]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

So in France I am seeing over 12k new infections a day, well over 100 deaths per day, yet they are opening up?

 

Either we are opening late or they are opening early.

[Indy 3,307]

3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Either we are opening late or they are opening early.

I think they’re basing it on vaccinations to the most vulnerable groups, we’re being more cautious. Don’t think there’s really a right or wrong but a learning curve.

[Creative Midfielder 1,999]

8 minutes ago, Indy said:

I think they’re basing it on vaccinations to the most vulnerable groups, we’re being more cautious. Don’t think there’s really a right or wrong but a learning curve.

Think that's about right, plus they have a much better resourced health system than we do - if you are unfortunate enough to actually catch the virus then your chances of survival are much better in France than in the UK.

[Van wink 2,994]

53 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Think that's about right, plus they have a much better resourced health system than we do - if you are unfortunate enough to actually catch the virus then your chances of survival are much better in France than in the UK.

Is that because of a better resourced health system, interesting. Which aspects of their system give them a better survival rate would you say? 

[Herman 9,796]

Better food, wine and no Hancock. 😉

[Indy 3,307]

11 hours ago, Herman said:

Better food, wine and no Hancock. 😉

Yes far too many handccks on the anti EU Brexit thread.......😂

Edited May 22, 2021 by Indy

[dj11 377]

Germany has now banned UK Nationals from entering the Country due to the Indian Variant, and yet we still have passengers from India arriving at Heathrow and standing cheek by jowl for hours with passengers from the green and amber list. I feel that the odd poster on here was almost gleeful that Germany was struggling rolling out the vaccine, but having spoken to friends in Germany last night, they are turning it around at speed. It will probably be like the football against Germany, we start off well, they peg us back, and if we try really hard we may get to extra time, but deep down, we know what the result will be.

[ricardo 7,395]

40 minutes ago, dj11 said:

Germany has now banned UK Nationals from entering the Country due to the Indian Variant, and yet we still have passengers from India arriving at Heathrow and standing cheek by jowl for hours with passengers from the green and amber list. I feel that the odd poster on here was almost gleeful that Germany was struggling rolling out the vaccine, but having spoken to friends in Germany last night, they are turning it around at speed. It will probably be like the football against Germany, we start off well, they peg us back, and if we try really hard we may get to extra time, but deep down, we know what the result will be.

All rather strange when you consider the last time the UK recorded more daily cases than Germany was on March 1st.

[ricardo 7,395]

A similar situation with deaths.

Its almost as if different variants hit different countries at different times.

[Herman 9,796]

Some good news I think.(Paywall but the thread following explains the gist.)

 

[ricardo 7,395]

5 minutes ago, Herman said:

Some good news I think.(Paywall but the thread following explains the gist.)

 

Yes, it seems everytime there's a variant the Media go overboard before any real analysis is done.

I expect we will see a slight uptick for a while but its no bad thing if it pushes a few more vaccine reluctant towards the jabbing stations. Amazingly I still know of eligible people who haven't gone for their second appointments because they felt a bit ill after the first one.

[Herman 9,796]

It was the same variant at different times. I thought that was common knowledge?! 

[sonyc 5,539]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

Yes, it seems everytime there's a variant the Media go overboard before any real analysis is done.

I expect we will see a slight uptick for a while but its no bad thing if it pushes a few more vaccine reluctant towards the jabbing stations. Amazingly I still know of eligible people who haven't gone for their second appointments because they felt a bit ill after the first one.

I know I posted earlier in the week about what is happening locally and I'm sure we will see rates rise. Yet here we have seen Zoe rates climb 5 fold in less than a week. It's shocking really if you consider that rate of increase if replicated across the country. Zoe is often ahead of national figures I've found. We have the so-called Indian variant (about 10) now as well as a new 'Yorkshire' variant under study.

 

[ricardo 7,395]

[ricardo 7,395]

National

2694 - 6

Local

 

[It's Character Forming 1,164]

Just had an email offering me the chance to book an earlier vaccine 2nd appointment. It's a bit off putting because you have to cancel your previous appointment and then it shows you availability for a new appointment.  But, I was able to book an appointment for Tuesday (Monday was available but I'm busy) which was 10 days ahead of my original appointment so worth going for IMO.

[sonyc 5,539]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/dominic-cummings-herd-immunity-covid-b1852128.html

An old chestnut here brought back up by Big Bad Dom. Blames the media for poor scrutiny of the government's response to Covid ....this thread has been excellent at doing that.

Also he speaks of poor governance and competence in government. The herd immunity argument also appears again. He hammers Hancock too.

So now we know the content of next week's evidence to parliament. It might be a big story to come next week....or a damp squib. Texts and WhatsApp messages to be presented. Should be interesting anyway.

This has only just been posted so putting the story here with half an eye on Eurovision (not a sentence I expected to write).

 

 

[Van wink 2,994]

9 minutes ago, sonyc said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/dominic-cummings-herd-immunity-covid-b1852128.html

An old chestnut here brought back up by Big Bad Dom. Blames the media for poor scrutiny of the government's response to Covid ....this thread has been excellent at doing that.

Also he speaks of poor governance and competence in government. The herd immunity argument also appears again. He hammers Hancock too.

So now we know the content of next week's evidence to parliament. It might be a big story to come next week....or a damp squib. Texts and WhatsApp messages to be presented. Should be interesting anyway.

This has only just been posted so putting the story here with half an eye on Eurovision (not a sentence I expected to write).

 

 

Eurovision seems mainly BDSM, only half an eye  reflects well

[Van wink 2,994]

Sweden for me

[sonyc 5,539]

13 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Eurovision seems mainly BDSM, only half an eye  reflects well

Must admit I raised an eyelid at the lyrics about "give me your sugar on my tongue" from that Moldova lass.

[sonyc 5,539]

11 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Sweden for me

The herd immunity song no doubt?

(Btw ....San Marino for me)