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paul moy

Wuhan coronavirus

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I’d like to think it is right but it is just a model and no evidence to support it. The imperial college professor thinks it is unlikely based on the testing in Italy but we will only really know when they do anti body testing which should hopefully come shortly   

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4 minutes ago, T said:

I’d like to think it is right but it is just a model and no evidence to support it. The imperial college professor thinks it is unlikely based on the testing in Italy but we will only really know when they do anti body testing which should hopefully come shortly   

It is just a model, but all this is based on modelling with very little evidence base. The Oxford study assumes that the virus has been freely circulation within the UK since January, I've no idea how that theory has evolved, I would have expected to see a much higher rate of hospitalised cases by now if that were the case, but who knows. Is it possible that the virus, for some reason, is more virulent, or has a more sever clinical response in Italy and Spain? I guess we will find out shortly.

 

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It is simple maths. The virus was reported at end of December. It would have circulated before then and given extent of trade with China then entirely possible was in UK at end of December. Therefore in UK for 85 days. It muliplies 2.5 to 3 times every 5 days so multiplied by factor of say 2.75 every 5 days. That’s half the population. End of Jan in UK at current estimated 3 RO would give 177k cases currently in the UK   We don’t when started though and need more testing to know how may with no or mild symptoms

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I thought the government a few weeks ago was doing some random testing in a few spots to identify exactly this i.e. a rough idea off the true infection spread. I've always assumed its where the 10 to 20 x come from.

If it was really x 100 I think we'd all know by now.

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Ferguson was not convinced. He reckons RO of 3 and first reported case end of Jan gives the 177k. The Oxford numbers not supported by sample testing in Italy. China and these numbers do suggest that a lot of people though don’t get infected, have no symptoms or only mild symptoms. 

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On 24/03/2020 at 12:48, Essjayess said:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

This has been linked quite a few times in this topic. Its the official Public Health England  stats and updated once daily.

Thanks for quoting twiddle dee. If they would have looked for solutions, there are plenty around, but they are more concerned with a cull than with the nation.

https://healthpolicy.fsi.stanford.edu/news/how-taiwan-used-big-data-transparency-central-command-protect-its-people-coronavirus?fbclid=IwAR1r0MNRn-GpicROg_V0Yk8P7nr4JkZ2zd4ZXlh5bScX_1T0Fl3TM_OuyeQ

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2 hours ago, Van wink said:

It is just a model, but all this is based on modelling with very little evidence base. The Oxford study assumes that the virus has been freely circulation within the UK since January, I've no idea how that theory has evolved, I would have expected to see a much higher rate of hospitalised cases by now if that were the case, but who knows. Is it possible that the virus, for some reason, is more virulent, or has a more sever clinical response in Italy and Spain? I guess we will find out shortly.

 

I actually think the media as ever is running away with a 1/2 story as  it sounds good (and could dangerously mislead the gullible)! The Oxford professors/group don't believe it either - it's just one extreme they identify that  'could' fit the known limited facts with some truly heroic assumptions (although I think that the number of asymptomatic cases identified in Italy or indeed the UK would give the lie to this thesis). By far the simplest is that it's 10x  to 20 times bigger than we have 'identified' with a mortality of circa 1% predominantly in the elderly.  

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9 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I actually think the media as ever is running away with a 1/2 story as  it sounds good (and could dangerously mislead the gullible)! The Oxford professors/group don't believe it either - it's just one extreme they identify that  'could' fit the known limited facts with some truly heroic assumptions (although I think that the number of asymptomatic cases identified in Italy or indeed the UK would give the lie to this thesis). By far the simplest is that it's 10x  to 20 times bigger than we have 'identified' with a mortality of circa 1% predominantly in the elderly.  

There seems to be a story emerging about a cover up at The Austrian ski resort so things could have actually kicked off in Europe earlier than was thought 

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Posted (edited)

Well one surprising thing from today, perhaps just one of those daily blips....new deaths today...

Netherlands +80,  Belgium +56, Germany +47, UK +43.  Ithink thats the first day that Germany has had more than the UK.

Also, 4 days now after that same  time deaths of 233 from Italy and UK. the Italy total stood at 827 and today the UK totalled 463. Clearly the Italy death was rising much faster.

Edited by Essjayess
added words

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17 minutes ago, Van wink said:

There seems to be a story emerging about a cover up at The Austrian ski resort so things could have actually kicked off in Europe earlier than was thought 

Wasn't there some thought (likely not true) that the 'Italian' centre was actually a derivative of Austria / Bavaria ? 

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Ferguson was not convinced. He reckons RO of 3 and first reported case end of Jan gives the 177k. The Oxford numbers not supported by sample testing in Italy. China and these numbers do suggest that a lot of people though don’t get infected, have no symptoms or only mild symptoms. 
 

The Austrian ski resort story is a few weeks old.  In fact there was a number of cases traced back to bars and restaurants in various ski resorts as you have a lot of people together in confined spaces at a peak holiday season which facilitated the spread. The case goes back to before it really escalated and people were less aware. However by this stage it was just spreading anyway.

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2 minutes ago, T said:

Ferguson was not convinced. He reckons RO of 3 and first reported case end of Jan gives the 177k. The Oxford numbers not supported by sample testing in Italy. China and these numbers do suggest that a lot of people though don’t get infected, have no symptoms or only mild symptoms. 
 

The Austrian ski resort story is a few weeks old.  In fact there was a number of cases traced back to bars and restaurants in various ski resorts as you have a lot of people together in confined spaces at a peak holiday season which facilitated the spread. The case goes back to before it really escalated and people were less aware. However by this stage it was just spreading anyway.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/uk-patient-zero-east-sussex-family-may-have-infected-coronavirus/

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Younger age as a lot of people coming back from ski holidays then. More testing and tracing. More healthcare capacity. More compliance with social distancing   They will still struggle with peak but ultimately you pay your taxes and take your choice. More taxes and more healthcare or less taxes and less healthcare. Ultimately that simple. It was what the UK voted for. 

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Posted (edited)

WHO had a mortality rate of about 3%...but even if we go along with the UK CMO of 1% mortality...work out 1% from 33 million...thats why the Oxford Projecion is way out.

Local confirmed cases as of today...Norfolk +3 to 45, Suffolk +13 to 35.

Edited by Essjayess
spelling correction

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Posted (edited)


 

 

Italy’s healthcare system is one of the best in the world

Edited by Van wink

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Interesting Telegraph article VW. An earlier start would suggest a lot more people have been infected in UK with no or mild symptoms but varies from 370k to 4.7m now infected depending on RO between 2.5 and 3.0. Bottom line conclusion is we will only know when there is more general testing.
 

The Oxford figure is just a theoretical highest case number if started in UK at start of Jan and 2.75 RO  It doesn’t mean the model is bad but as I always see in work the reporting is misleading which is why always best to go back to source info. The UK model is a best guess based on the available data but given the limited data no one really knows how this will develop. 

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On 24/03/2020 at 17:26, Herman said:

There seems to be a bit of a twatoff between two of Britain's richest men today. Mike Ashley was well in the lead this morning then Tim Wetherspoon decided to take over.

Whereas Brexitty Sir Jim Ratcliffe has fallen completely off the tw@ chart by doing something with his wealth that will benefit the whole country. Well done Ineos.👍

James Dyson and his company has stepped up and quickly designed and built and new ventilator. Well done. 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Herman said:

James Dyson and his company has stepped up and quickly designed and built and new ventilator. Well done. 

It's positive Herman but hearing Newsnight this evening I'm not convinced (certainly Emily Maitlis wasn't) that they will arrive on time.

Edited by sonyc

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Dyson is a strange one. Given the head to me seems to make more sense to work with expert staff ng companies to expand production of existing tested designs

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35 minutes ago, T said:

Dyson is a strange one. Given the head to me seems to make more sense to work with expert staff ng companies to expand production of existing tested designs

Think Dyson had been a party donor in the past. Not that this factor may have been important. It's the timing that is odd given that other existing manufacturers (had one on Newsnight) were ready weeks ago but government passed over them. It's damning .... especially in such a national crisis. Dyson also needs to test the prototypes too. That was the story which was given a long feature.

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9 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Think Dyson had been a party donor in the past. Not that this factor may have been important. It's the timing that is odd given that other existing manufacturers (had one on Newsnight) were ready weeks ago but government passed over them. It's damning .... especially in such a national crisis. Dyson also needs to test the prototypes too. That was the story which was given a long feature.

Nothing against Dyson - but today isn't the day to buy untested new designs / prototypes when we need something that'll work in two weeks!

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Building up new longer term alternative capacity may well be a good idea but it is somewhat reminiscent of buying ferry capacity from a company without any ferries 

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2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Nothing against Dyson - but today isn't the day to buy untested new designs / prototypes when we need something that'll work in two weeks!

As far as I know we are not just doing this.  Existing manufacturers have been ask to produce more and work with larger companies so that existing designs can be produced in mass.  The Dyson contract would complement these bit is not seen as an alternative.

 

Seems like a sensible plan to me

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11 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

As far as I know we are not just doing this.  Existing manufacturers have been ask to produce more and work with larger companies so that existing designs can be produced in mass.  The Dyson contract would complement these bit is not seen as an alternative.

 

Seems like a sensible plan to me

From what I have heard I think that’s right. There are multiple orders but I guess we can never be sure how many of those will be fulfilled. The Dyson order is in addition to other orders placed and includes some units to be supplied to other countries I believe.

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Sharing Preston's latest communication. Interesting thread.

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14 hours ago, Herman said:

James Dyson and his company has stepped up and quickly designed and built and new ventilator. Well done. 

Reference that Preston post. Sounds like the "designed" claim may not be true. Built from an existing design given to them, and not yet approved may be closer to the mark. But whatever it takes to get the ventilators built .... so long as "names" don't get prioritized inappropriately is good in my book. 

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Even positive stories have to be double and treble checked now. Ho hum. Apologies for getting ahead of things. 

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Looking objectively at this dyson appears to be an ideal company to have involved.

A ventilator seems to me to be at heart an electric motor in a plastic housing g that is used to move air around tubes.  It doesnt seem to be much different to a vacuum.

It is largely British based with british manufacturing capability so no over reliance on difficult trade routes.

The Brexit link that a lot are keen to emphasise is entirely secondary in my opinion.

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