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ben_645

Norwich will stay up!

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Just looking at previous premiership tables and it’s made me sure Norwich will stay up. 

The teams that get relegated nearly without exception - can’t score goals. (I believe Norwich will score lots) All teams in the bottom half concede a lot of goals and have negative goal differences. However, it doesn’t really seem to matter as they tend to concede roughly the same amount. The exception last year were Brighton who conceded a few less goals then the surrounding teams but they only just scraped over the line. 

With they way Norwich play, they will always create and more often than not covert a few of their chances in each game. They will concede a lot too but it’s quite likely that in many matches they will be far more clinical and score 1 or more and the other teams will have and off day. Not every team will punish us like Liverpool did in the first half. But I am confident that Norwich can score against anyone in this league. 

 A side point - (When Norwich finished third in 1992 93 they had a negative goal difference of -4 and lost 7-1 to Blackburn along the way - if in remember rightly that season we didn’t get relegated ; ).

A specific example from last season - Bournemouth finished with 11 more points last season than Cardiff (relegated) and finished four places above them. They did that by scoring 22 more goals whilst conceding 1 more than Cardiff.

The goal Norwich scored against Liverpool would have beat any team and they created over 10 decent shots on goal - that’s more chances and goals than Barcelona managed in their 4-0 loss. They will get some fantastic memorable wins this season by really going for it. 

Scoring wins games - Norwich will score lots. 

 

OTBC

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I don't think it makes a difference. A team who scores lots and concedes lots is no more likely to stay up than a team who scores few and concedes few. We've seen teams go down despite scoring a lot of goals (Blackpool) and we've seen teams stay up based on a mean defence.

Studies have been conducted into this and they generally reach the conclusion that regardless of whether you're aiming to win a title or avoid relegation, there's no benefit to an attacking or defensive approach: it's the balance what counts.

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I think it depends on just how bad the defence is. I said in another thread that if we make as many basic errors (own goal, poor marking of Van Dijk from the corner, pinball in the box for Salah’s) then we’ll have to score two or three against even the average sides to get points. That’s not sustainable.

We shouldn’t overplay the defensive frailties though - last season we conceded a lot for a championship winning side, but we also kept a lot of clean sheets and there was a good run in the middle of the season where we were conceding under a goal a game (although we scored slightly less in he same period if I remember correctly).

If we can find that defensive balance then yes I’d agree that being able to score might be enough to get us safe. You get fewer chances in the prem, so a clinical striker can make the difference.

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I'm not sure of the need for an exclamation mark - as if this was something out of the blue

As it stands we will easily stay up, simply because of the way we play.

Goals mean points if you either score more or equal the amount that you opponents do.

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....I'll reserve judgement until I see Zimmerman (and/or Klose) restored at the back with Amadou in front of that.

...If we're still shipping goals after that , theres only so often you can pull off the you score 3 ,we'll score 4 trick....and wouks need to be reviewed in January

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Yes agreed. However it was encouraging that a 4-1 loss still lead to us being out of the bottom three by the end of the weekend. 

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Posted (edited)

No one can know for sure. I remember back in Lambert's Premier League year the opening game v Wigan, we were very lucky to scrape a 1-1 draw with a relegation rival, their winger Moses tore us to shreds, some of our star players from the year before like Crofts and our Cb's looked very weak at that level and I came away after the game thinking uh oh, we're in trouble here. Then we ended up finishing 12th and having a really comfortable season. Same thing with Hughtons first year, got battered 5-0 by another relegation rival, looked not just weak but utterly hopeless and we finished 11th. His second year we had a great performance in our opening game v Everton and got relegated.....

 

Last year we looked vulnerable in defence away at Birmingham and West Brom carved us apart at will in the second game, Leeds a few games later also took us apart, then we won the league. 

 

I don't think you can draw too many conclusions from early season form. In our favour we've been slow starters before under Farke, then improved massively in the autumn. But by the same token I don't think we can take Fridays game as a guarantee we'll create loads of chances and score loads of goals at this level either. 

 

I honestly have no idea where we'll end up come the end of the season. I hope we'll stay up but at the moment none of us have a clue really.

Edited by Christoph Stiepermann
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7 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Having just seen Newcastle I think that is one of the three places spoken for. Actually, take that back till 5.00 on Saturday..... 

I have decided to just sit back and enjoy the season. We will soon find out if we are good enough.👍

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Some of the Nationals seem to write us off and a lot of their columnists have been around  The Premiership  for years. The guy in The Mail on Saturday spoke a lot of sense, you cannot go gung-ho in this league. We scored lots of goals in TC because we had  massive possession,  especially at home but I can see where he is coming from regards our fragile defence. Given that Lewis, Arrons, and Godfrey are outstanding and have been touted on here to sell in the future for 20 30 40 million apiece then  something needs to be done to ensure we do not ship goals as we did in TC and that means changing our style of play

Personally I  hope we continue playing as we did in The Championship rather than out last outing in TP where the football from us was boring

Carry on Mr Farke we are all behind you

 

C

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48 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Having just seen Newcastle I think that is one of the three places spoken for. Actually, take that back till 5.00 on Saturday..... 

Far too early to tell. That could've been one of Newcastle's worst performances of the season and they'll finish mid-table, but it could've one of their best and they'll go down with 15 points.

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I'm using judgement until we've played some games against teams around us. My concern is our defending leaves us needing to score 2 or 3 a game even against poorer sides.

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32 minutes ago, king canary said:

I'm using judgement until we've played some games against teams around us. My concern is our defending leaves us needing to score 2 or 3 a game even against poorer sides.

Agreed. I said in another thread that even losing to Newcastle and West Ham isn’t terminal, but if we do lose to both of those because we conceded 2 or 3 sloppy goals and could only score one or two, then that is a massive concern.

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Just seen a comment on Chelsea  on BBC.

"Mo Aman: Gutting, however Chelsea fans need to be optimistic and give a few games against lower sides for his style to gel we saw the same with .."

Seems pure arrogance to me. I look forward to us beating one of these weaker sides (in blue) in few games....😊😊😊

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, daly said:

Some of the Nationals seem to write us off and a lot of their columnists have been around  The Premiership  for years. The guy in The Mail on Saturday spoke a lot of sense, you cannot go gung-ho in this league. 

Love this, I'm wondering how many of these columnists predicted that Leicester would win the League?

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