The Positive Brexit Thread

[Herman 9,859]

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

 

Someone will be along soon to say it isn't correct.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,613]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

 

 

4 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Someone will be along soon to say it isn't correct.

It's correct. On the other hand, considering the deficit in goods without mentioning it was a record high surplus of services exports for the UK in 2022 makes it all start to look like a propaganda campaign, particularly when 80% of our GDP is services.

Edited April 13, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Herman 9,859]

15 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Someone will be along soon to say it isn't correct.

It was a good guess but not quite right. (Said in a Roy Walker voice.)😀

[Yellow Fever 3,851]

57 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

 

It's correct. On the other hand, considering the deficit in goods without mentioning it was a record high surplus of services exports for the UK in 2022 makes it all start to look like a propaganda campaign, particularly when 80% of our GDP is services.

I thought the FT article was pretty plain and explicit referring to goods. It also adds services have done better (about 50%)

However the dismal view of the situation is echoed by many of the fund managers in the comments i.e. Fidelity.

It's vanilla stuff not propaganda or malinformation as per others.

[sonyc 5,541]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

It was a good guess but not quite right. (Said in a Roy Walker voice.)😀

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,613]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I thought the FT article was pretty plain and explicit referring to goods. It also adds services have done better (about 50%)

However the dismal view of the situation is echoed by many of the fund managers in the comments i.e. Fidelity.

It's vanilla stuff not propaganda or malinformation as per others.

It did refer specifically and exclusively to goods. Why? Are services exports of no value? I guess they must be given there's virtually no mention of them, in spite of the continuing growth on that score.

Goods should be more important to us than they are, but the reality is it's service exports that do the heavy lifting for the UK economy; not goods. Excluding services from reporting of performance of the UK economy is ridiculous. And yet all of the emphasis is on goods exports, especially to the EU.

Where do we stack up against the rest of the G7 changes on services exports? I can only presume it must be fairly well or there'd be stories telling us how awful that was as well instead of the laser-like focus on goods representing 20% of GDP.

About the closest I can find to information on that score is that the UK is the second largest service exporter in the world after the USA. No comment whatsoever on relative G7 performances on services though or year on year change.

 

Edited April 13, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

On 11/04/2023 at 21:59, sonyc said:

https://news.sky.com/story/why-does-the-uk-fare-so-poorly-in-the-latest-imf-forecast-12799691

There is a little background here. A couple of specific weak areas (gas prices and Brexit). Quite a balanced article.

Overall though I think I prefer to trust the IMF and philosophically I guess when it comes to finances I am risk averse generally. I mistrust gung ho economics - thinking of the boosterism of Johnson and the recklessness of Truss and Kwarteng.

Prefer my economists of the gloomy kind especially when it comes to national economics. Even if I used not to like them. E.g. when I was in my job. I often just wanted to spend, to make surpluses and reinvest but the finance people always went on about blooming accruels! Always caution. They (and HR and Legal) kiboshed everything - at least they tried to.

You see. I told you that you'd spaff our tax payers money up the wall, and here you are admitting it. Forty years of failing the community and you've nothing to show for it. You're everything that's wrong with our country.

[Herman 9,859]

"The OBR report found that overall UK trade was below that of the other big industrialised countries despite services, which account for about half the country’s overall exports, performing better than goods. In the last three months of 2022 UK services export volumes were 2.4 per cent above their 2019 level."

It says it in the article.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,613]

6 minutes ago, Herman said:

"The OBR report found that overall UK trade was below that of the other big industrialised countries despite services, which account for about half the country’s overall exports, performing better than goods. In the last three months of 2022 UK services export volumes were 2.4 per cent above their 2019 level."

It says it in the article.

Yeah, buried really deep in the article, practically as a throwaway.

All this riding on IMF forecasts that have persistently missed on the negative side regarding the UK for so many years now that it's a joke.

Edited April 13, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Herman 9,859]

It's not a big article. It wasn't buried.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,613]

4 minutes ago, Herman said:

It's not a big article. It wasn't buried.

Rubbish. Literally one sentence you eventually get to swiping down the story well down towards the bottom where the entire piece persistently emphasises goods only.

[Indy 3,344]

I love it....some on here still think they know better than the massive institution made up of 190 countries full of experts in their field.....is there really anything to be positive about Brexit yet for this country? 

[PurpleCanary 5,603]

25 minutes ago, Herman said:

"The OBR report found that overall UK trade was below that of the other big industrialised countries despite services, which account for about half the country’s overall exports, performing better than goods. In the last three months of 2022 UK services export volumes were 2.4 per cent above their 2019 level."

It says it in the article.

Received wisdom was that Brexit would harm the UK’s trade in goods, for the obvious reason that it is easier to trade physically with the countries closest to you, but that trade in services, much of it carried on in cyberspace,  was not affected by distance.

The FT did a survey and found to its surprise that although the negative effect of distance on trade in services was not as great as that for physical goods it was still certainly there.

I think one of the reasons the FT found was that a significant proportion of trade in services was linked to trade in physical goods, so if that was further away geographically then the services side would also be hit.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,613]

7 minutes ago, Indy said:

I love it....some on here still think they know better than the massive institution made up of 190 countries full of experts in their field.....is there really anything to be positive about Brexit yet for this country? 

It's not about knowing better; it's about knowing that the IMF has been wrong on every single UK growth forecast for years and the UK has done better than they said.

This new forecast has already revised upwards from January, but it's still an outlier and many headlines are being made of the IMF forecast. I'm more than happy to bet they've screwed up yet again, but there'll be more bullsh*t headlines touting it like it's prophecy in the next cycle.

Edited April 13, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[sonyc 5,541]

37 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

You see. I told you that you'd spaff our tax payers money up the wall, and here you are admitting it. Forty years of failing the community and you've nothing to show for it. You're everything that's wrong with our country.

Yeh whatever Rocky. It wasn't my money or tax payers money or UK money. It was funding, sourced competitively, most of it European. Bit awkward there for you.

I haven't "admitted" anything either - simply that I always wanted to re-invest surpluses. Surpluses that had been made. The best businesses make profits. The best managers lead that.

It's fine that you think of me as everything that's wrong with our country but you don't know me. And saying stuff like you do and your general abusive posts say far more about you than me. You've learnt very little for all your experience and clearly you are intelligent. You should use that to try and understand other people and engage with posters.

[Indy 3,344]

2 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

It's not about knowing better; it's about knowing that the IMF has been wrong on every single UK growth forecast for years and the UK has done better than they said.

This new forecast has already revised upwards from January, but it's still an outlier. I'm more than happy to meet they've screwed up yet again.

Indeed as the IMF are always cautious....but in real terms I've been very lucky to have moved a  large portion of my retirement fund in to a global fund to protect my pension and I moved some saving into other currency which helped stabilize my pension. The reality is we are behind other countries, the strikes ongoing will drive up inflation here compared to other countries and we are way behind on supplying workers into the key resources, so it doesn't look good here for long term compared to most of the EU as a measure.

As you well know living in France and its own economic challenges yet so much stronger then the UK.

[A Load of Squit 5,244]

8 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

It's not about knowing better; it's about knowing that the IMF has been wrong on every single UK growth forecast for years and the UK has done better than they said.

This new forecast has already revised upwards from January, but it's still an outlier and many headlines are being made of the IMF forecast. I'm more than happy to bet they've screwed up yet again, but there'll be more bullsh*t headlines touting it like it's prophecy in the next cycle.

It's not our fault that you are too stupid to read and understand the article.

This is the 2nd similar mistake you've made in two days, go and have lie down somewhere, you need it.

Edited April 14, 2023 by A Load of Squit

[littleyellowbirdie 2,613]

8 hours ago, Indy said:

Indeed as the IMF are always cautious....but in real terms I've been very lucky to have moved a  large portion of my retirement fund in to a global fund to protect my pension and I moved some saving into other currency which helped stabilize my pension. The reality is we are behind other countries, the strikes ongoing will drive up inflation here compared to other countries and we are way behind on supplying workers into the key resources, so it doesn't look good here for long term compared to most of the EU as a measure.

As you well know living in France and its own economic challenges yet so much stronger then the UK.

There's random error and there's systematic error. This is clearly systematic error on the part of the IMF, which rightly should lower confidence in the importance of their forecasts. At the very least, the repeated errors in recent historic forecasts should be added as a caveat in reporting, Even if it's a sentence lost 2/3 of the way down the story, that would be some sort of nod to objective reporting.

Edited April 14, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Herman 9,859]

 

Edited April 14, 2023 by Herman

[littleyellowbirdie 2,613]

20 minutes ago, Herman said:

 

As unimaginative as it is deluded.

[Herman 9,859]

Do you get an alarm when someone badmouths your beloved brexit? Anyway, factual is the word you meant. No need to thank me.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

12 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

As unimaginative as it is deluded.

You have to stop this impression that you are the only one right and everyone else is wrong. You accuse many of us of giving our opinions from a narrow, even biased point of view, but dismiss even facts. The FT, ONS, BoE, IMF all tell us why the economy has shrunk but you **** **** it as hogwash.

It isn't pleasant debating with you when you take this stance.

[Indy 3,344]

7 minutes ago, Herman said:

Do you get an alarm when someone badmouths your beloved brexit? Anyway, factual is the word you meant. No need to thank me.

LYB lives in France, but my question is there anything positive yet to come out of brexit for the UK? I note Poland, Czech Rep & Slovakia have had some positives from the UK leaving.

LYB do you have French nationality or are you there some other way or illegally 😂? Just joking on the last point but if you're not there due to work surely you need a visa and working one to stay in France and live.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,613]

37 minutes ago, Herman said:

Do you get an alarm when someone badmouths your beloved brexit? Anyway, factual is the word you meant. No need to thank me.

 

As Indy said, lots of EU countries have benefited from picking up things from the UK as a result of us leaving. That has happened and the ship has sailed. They talk like undoing it is a viable option; it's nonsense.

Short term recovery isn't going to happen on the back of some delusion the EU is just going to open up to us and make it easy for us because they're asked nicely. Why on Earth would they do that? We will not be getting any favours from the EU and anyone who believes we can go cap in hand to get access back is a mug.

The relationship with the EU to be rebuilt there has to be progress in other directions for the UK that means the EU has a tangible interest in opening up to us again. CPTPP is a prime example of that underlined by how imminent CPTPP membership actually led to the NI dispute being resolved sensibly.

This notion that there's nothing possible for the UK other than the UK to give up on everytthing to back to the EU begging for access is simply moronic. Utterly stupid. Imbecilic. Backwards. I can't stress enough how deluded it is. No mainstream politician is going there for that very reason.

We're seeing services surpluses building up as we start to capitalise on digital services treaties such as the one with Singapore. That's where we need to go to offset the 5% loss of leaving the EU. Once headway has been made, then you can talk with the EU from a position of less obvious weakness. Honestly, how are you so clueless about negotiation?

To reiterate, all in favour of getting our relationship with the EU stronger and removing friction, but it needs to be on terms that preserves as much freedom to operate independently of the EU as possible. Not doing so having gone to all this trouble now would be dumb.

Edited April 14, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Herman 9,859]

[Well b back 3,309]

Something else we were told a) wouldn’t happen b) hasn’t happened.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/britain-s-biggest-companies-would-be-worth-ps460-billion-more-if-they-listed-in-new-york-ftse-100-nasdaq-s-p-500-dow-jones-b1074084.html

The world of investment did not take the UK’s decision to leave the EU too kindly. In fact ever since June 2016 confidence in the UK as a country to invest in has slowly dissipated.

 

[Herman 9,859]

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,613]

15 hours ago, Herman said:

This seems somewhat ironic coming from you.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,613]

12 hours ago, Well b back said:

Something else we were told a) wouldn’t happen b) hasn’t happened.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/britain-s-biggest-companies-would-be-worth-ps460-billion-more-if-they-listed-in-new-york-ftse-100-nasdaq-s-p-500-dow-jones-b1074084.html

The world of investment did not take the UK’s decision to leave the EU too kindly. In fact ever since June 2016 confidence in the UK as a country to invest in has slowly dissipated.

 

https://www.cityam.com/post-brexit-foreign-direct-investment-in-the-north-skyrockets-72-per-cent/

How does this view tally with FDI into the UK going up from 1.9 trillion to 2.3 trillion US dollars in 2021?