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The Brexit Thread

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Latest betting

Most Seats

Tories 1-6    Labour 13-2

Majority

Tories Evens   Labour 18-1   Lib Dems  66-1

No Overall Majority    11/10

betting opportunities for the brave.ūü§Ē

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1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

It's actually a digital world these days. 

We are in this 'mess' simply because a Remain Parliament refused to implement the will of the people to Leave the EU. 

No, we're here because the Tories (starting with Theresa May) were told that either the UK needed to be in a Customs Union, a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland needed to exist, or Northern Ireland needed to be treated differently to the rest of the UK.

After three years of dithering, proposing "technological solutions" that don't exist, Boris has chosen the third option, despite it being worse than the theoretical backstop.

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1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

It's actually a digital world these days. 

We are in this 'mess' simply because a Remain Parliament refused to implement the will of the people to Leave the EU. 

My God, you are a dull witted man. 

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14 minutes ago, ricardo said:

650 seats minus Sinn Fein 7, minus the Speaker = 642

322 = majority of 2

Not necessarily, because you cannot assume that Sinn Fein (even if it continues not to vote) will still have seven seats. It might have more, or less. Last time it won two from the SDLP, for example, and one from the UUP. Those seats, or others, might be lost back.

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16 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Latest betting

Most Seats

Tories 1-6    Labour 13-2

Majority

Tories Evens   Labour 18-1   Lib Dems  66-1

No Overall Majority    11/10

betting opportunities for the brave.ūü§Ē

Interesting Ricardo - Not being¬†a betting man but that that would¬†suggests a second ref is about¬†evens ūüôā

 

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10 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

Not necessarily, because you cannot assume that Sinn Fein (even if it continues not to vote) will still have seven seats. It might have more, or less. Last time it won two from the SDLP, for example, and one from the UUP. Those seats, or others, might be lost back.

Certainly possible.

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1 hour ago, SwindonCanary said:

I never said I would not vote for them, I've given my reason why I'm voting for my MP

Oh ok then, so you don't like the fact they give money to terrorists, but you're happy to support it anyway. Glad we've cleared that up. You can't vote for Corbyn because he spoke to terrorists as part of the peace process, but you can support a party that gives billions to terrorists who brought weapons used to murder innocents into the country.

Like I said, consistent as ever.

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14 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

No - You are just regurgitating cheap unthinking jibes which I've called out. I'm not for Corbyn at all and think his policy is crap but I do understand it. He's at best neutral on Brexit, trying to face both ways and wants to talk about other things - it might work for him yet.  You and others have a 1 track mind it seems unable to look beyond.

There is nothing cheap or unthinking to remind everyone what senior Labour MPs have said what their policy on Brexit is. If you didn't like the answer that you got then you shouldn't have jumped into the post. 

You describe Corbyn as neutral on Brexit'. Others would describe that as dithering, sitting on the fence, weak. I think the electorate will decide whether or not they want a Prime Minster who can't decide what position to take on Brexit. And I suspect that they don't. 

This election needs to be about Brexit because we have to resolve it for once and all. Dithering doesn't help anyone whatever side one is on. So no, let's concentrate on Brexit in this election, it's been dragging on for far too long

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Second Ref before 2021

YES 6-4

NO  4-9

Obviously this can change rapidly dependant upon the election result.

I can see nothing very tempting or out of line on the bookies odds offered so far. There may be tastier offers on the spread betting indexes or the individual constituencies when they are appraised.

Sporting Index go

Tories  321 sell   329 buy

Lab      200 sell   208 buy

LDEM    45 sell    50  buy

 

Edited by ricardo

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28 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

No, we're here because the Tories (starting with Theresa May) were told that either the UK needed to be in a Customs Union, a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland needed to exist, or Northern Ireland needed to be treated differently to the rest of the UK.

After three years of dithering, proposing "technological solutions" that don't exist, Boris has chosen the third option, despite it being worse than the theoretical backstop.

Wrong again. We didn't have to be in a CU. It was only the Remain Parliament that wants to tie us as closely as possible to the EU that insisted on us being in a CU. 

Very few countries that trade with the EU are also in the CU

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8 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

I'm not in the mood to explain the word "either" to RTB

You don't need to explain anything but you might have a think about how many countries that trade with the EU are also in the CU. You'll find the answer is 'few'. 

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Just now, Herman said:

How many other countries have a border on the island of Ireland? 

It's less that 'few'.

 

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44 minutes ago, kick it off said:

Oh ok then, so you don't like the fact they give money to terrorists, but you're happy to support it anyway. Glad we've cleared that up. You can't vote for Corbyn because he spoke to terrorists as part of the peace process, but you can support a party that gives billions to terrorists who brought weapons used to murder innocents into the country.

Like I said, consistent as ever.

I don't even like withdrawal agreement ! but it's the best on offer.

 

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4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Swindon North MP.

True, but Swindon could live in another constituency.......Swindon South maybe

 

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

650 seats minus Sinn Fein 7, minus the Speaker = 642

322 = majority of 2

The three deputy speakers by convention do not vote either.

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26 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

I don't even like withdrawal agreement ! but it's the best on offer.

What has that got to do with your double standards on you being complicit with terrorism?

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2 minutes ago, MooreMarriot said:

The three deputy speakers by convention do not vote either.

True but with The Speaker they are normally 2 Lab and 2 Con, so it evens out.

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15 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

Irrelevant

Not really. One of the major reason you failed Brexit is because the stupid red lines crashed into the international treaty of the GFA.The Canadians, Japanese, South Koreans etc.never had that problem.

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37 minutes ago, kick it off said:

What has that got to do with your double standards on you being complicit with terrorism?

I'm just pointing out that it's not all good from any party, you just have to weigh up the good and bad and make a decision.

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37 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Here in Norwich South we have Mr Clive Lewis. 

Absolutely nailed on to be re-elected 

Just looked and he got a massive improved majority. Hard to see it getting turned around.

My MP loses voters but there may not be enough to boot him out.

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I wonder how some constituencies may change in 2020.

Mine has seen all three major parties elected since 1992. A mining and engineering area that has now become a real mixture of retirees and youngsters. 

The sitting MP is George Eustice, a Tory, whose background and family is farming and produce, employing a decent number of eastern europeans. He had a very healthy majority in 2015 but saw that decimated in 2017 by Labour.

I just wouldn't like to call it. Just like many other areas of the country, many new voters are telling me they intend to vote Labour. They see it as the party that speaks more to them and for them than the blue rinse Tories. What hope do you give an 18 year old by telling them to vote for me and I will give tax cuts to the rich. I guess the promise of abolishing or reducing tuition fees would cement that vote.

I still think the older voters in the area will be Tory or protest by voting LibDem. That could just let Labour back in.

 

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1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

Irrelevant

Not irrelevant. It's a fact. 

 

So what are you going to do about it - 

Have a hard border between Eire and N.Ireland like before we entered the EU.

Have a sea / air border between the Island of Ireland and the Island of Britain. 

Have no border, which puts N.Ireland on the way to political integration with Eire.

Have the entire UK stay in a Customs Union with the EU. 

 

Edited by Surfer

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