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Jools

The Brexit Thread

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https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/jo-swinson-lib-dems-farage-brexit-party-johnson-stitch-up?__twitter_impression=true

Correct, Swansong, Sir Nigel of Farage and the BP have made it hard for the Lib-Dums to pick up Tory seats, but that's not the only reason you're doing so badly...

You also have the IQ of a gibbon ūüėÄ

sfb

Edited by Jools

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image.png.247c1766588e43fd0f88471c82c54ec6.png

It's the hope that gets you, probably equivalent to my hope City go on a mazy run to safety on the last day of the season.

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Another classic example of media rushing in to "report" on something that didn't happen... the problem being that a "correction" does not stop the original lie from traveling around the world.... media is complicit in this constant gaslighting of the public - what does it say about their own integrity and professional standards? 

Conservative sources claimed on Monday afternoon that the adviser to the health secretary had been hit by a protester at a¬†Leeds¬†hospital during a campaign visit. Aides initially briefed that Hancock‚Äôs adviser was ‚Äúpunched in the face‚ÄĚ and tried to point the finger at a Labour ‚Äúthug‚ÄĚ.

This is the moment - the "punch" was the aide walking into the arm of the protester who at that moment was looking the other way. 

So is it too much to ask that they name the "source" of their mis-information, or ask the Tories for an apology? 

1904473342_Thepunch.thumb.jpg.a15390d83892214ba525b265f63f0611.jpg

Screen Shot 2019-12-09 at 10.31.03.png

Screen Shot 2019-12-09 at 10.28.51.png

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Turning Point. The modern day Branch Davidians. Who will the Tories roll out next. David Icke? Jim Jones? Or will anyone voting Labour be forced to join the Brethren?

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

A very good piece by David Allen Green which won't be read by the people that need to read it.

https://davidallengreen.com/2019/12/the-l-word-the-f-word-and-contemporary-uk-politics/

There was a dispiritingly interesting piece a week or so back about how this is a campaign of lies, although Corbyn and Labour have stuck to the old-school game of spin and selective statistics and questionable claims while Johnson has gone full out with blatant lies, repeated ad infinitum.

Based on interviews, the journalist found that voters didn't believe much or even anything that either Corbyn or Johnson said. With one exception. Leavers believed Johnson's promise that if the Tories won then Brexit would happen. And that was all they cared about.

And the sod of it is that they are right to believe that promise. The Tories get in and Brexit, as defined by the UK leaving the EU, will happen by January 31 at the latest. As anybody who follows this knows, that will hardly be the end of it, and only an idiot would believe Johnson's promises on what will happen with an EU-UK trade deal, or on trade with Northern Ireland, or a US-UK deal, or on pretty much anything else.

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Yes I know its the Guardian but you cannot Ctrl/C anyone elses.

So they lied about a so called punch and then Boris cannot bring himself to admit things have got so bad on his party's watch.

There is an almost Trump like adoration from some people or as one Northern chap said "anything is better than Jezza". Really? I hope your job is safe pal. 

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4 hours ago, Herman said:

Judging his dubious character what makes you think that he won't betray Brexiters in general. Once he's got your vote and his feet under the table you may be the next ones to be politically inconvenient to his ambition? 

Well yes Herman, that is exactly the point the article was trying to make. He will sway the way that will win votes and elections.

Not that that is so uncommon. You could point the same finger at Tony Blair who dragged Labour to the right to get elected or Clegg who sold his Liberal ideals for a shot at power.

I don't doubt that Corbyn will stick by his principles but will he win on Thursday?

 

Edited by Hairy Canary
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KG, Can you recall any election when the opposition(be they Labour or Tory) don't try and pull the sick child stunt? I can still see Tony Blair's face when they pulled it on him. It's usually good for a few votes, that's why they do it.

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From this polling data in Wales it looks like the Labour heartlands are under serious threat from the Tories. Shifting sands of political support.

Westminster Voting Intention (Wales): LAB: 40% (+2) CON: 37% (+5) PLC: 10% (-1) LDM: 6% (-3) BXP: 5% (-3) GRN: 1% (=) Via

, 6-9 Dec. Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.

 

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1 hour ago, PurpleCanary said:

Leavers believed Johnson's promise that if the Tories won then Brexit would happen. And that was all they cared about.

And the sod of it is that they are right to believe that promise. The Tories get in and Brexit, as defined by the UK leaving the EU, will happen by January 31 at the latest. As anybody who follows this knows, that will hardly be the end of it, and only an idiot would believe Johnson's promises on what will happen with an EU-UK trade deal, or on trade with Northern Ireland, or a US-UK deal, or on pretty much anything else.

This is why is was so stupid of the Lib Dems to suddenly push for a General Election (one in which they will likely lose seats, not gain them), and not to push for a confirming referendum if the country really wanted to Brexit. The answer to that could still have been "yes" and I suspect that it would have been anyway; but to not hold the PM's feet to the fire to show that his version of "Brexit" was incoherent just let him off the hook to rant "get Brexit done" 

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8 minutes ago, Van wink said:

From this polling data in Wales it looks like the Labour heartlands are under serious threat from the Tories. Shifting sands of political support.

Westminster Voting Intention (Wales): LAB: 40% (+2) CON: 37% (+5) PLC: 10% (-1) LDM: 6% (-3) BXP: 5% (-3) GRN: 1% (=) Via

, 6-9 Dec. Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.

 

So changes from 2017

Lab -9

Con +3

Very much in line with my thoughts that it will be a 9-11 lead that we end up with.

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6 minutes ago, Surfer said:

This is why is was so stupid of the Lib Dems to suddenly push for a General Election (one in which they will likely lose seats, not gain them), and not to push for a confirming referendum if the country really wanted to Brexit. The answer to that could still have been "yes" and I suspect that it would have been anyway; but to not hold the PM's feet to the fire to show that his version of "Brexit" was incoherent just let him off the hook to rant "get Brexit done" 

Because there was no chance of a second ref getting through Parliament.

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

KG, Can you recall any election when the opposition(be they Labour or Tory) don't try and pull the sick child stunt? I can still see Tony Blair's face when they pulled it on him. It's usually good for a few votes, that's why they do it.

I don't think a 4 year old lying on a hospital floor is a stunt.

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14 minutes ago, Herman said:

I don't think a 4 year old lying on a hospital floor is a stunt.

Yes I expected a PC response from you. My point has nothing to do with the suffering of the child or its parents. I was stating that this kind of thing is brought forward at every election regardless of party, because it is a cheap way to win votes. The press like a "gotcha" moment and something to do with a sick child and a hospital always seems to provide it no matter who is in power at the time. When Blair was confronted it was termed the "Jenifers ear scandal". 

Did it cost him votes? Maybe, but he still got elected.

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I don't see it as pc or gotcha. It was someone trying to highlight what is going on in some our hospitals. It ain't right and you know it.

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All these polls - wildy disagreeing outside the margin of 'error'. They can't all be right.

Call me cynical but it appears the right wing papers tend to show a smaller Tory lead - encouraging / emphasising the right (or Quitters) to come out and vote - it might be important.

WHERAS - the Guardian etc shows a wider Tory lead - again encouraging the left (or Remain) to come out and vote and telling the right no need to bother!

Then of course, I suspect all that the polls are really telling us is that it might be a lot closer and that individual poll models are to blame for the variance - if the young vote it could be close plus lots of tactical voting - if they don't then Johnson is probably home and dry.

Who's modeled electorate best ?

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2 minutes ago, Herman said:

I don't see it as pc or gotcha. It was someone trying to highlight what is going on in some our hospitals. It ain't right and you know it.

Yes its certainly not right when someone has to suffer but that was not the point of my post.

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20 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

All these polls - wildy disagreeing outside the margin of 'error'. They can't all be right.

Call me cynical but it appears the right wing papers tend to show a smaller Tory lead - encouraging / emphasising the right (or Quitters) to come out and vote - it might be important.

WHERAS - the Guardian etc shows a wider Tory lead - again encouraging the left (or Remain) to come out and vote and telling the right no need to bother!

Then of course, I suspect all that the polls are really telling us is that it might be a lot closer and that individual poll models are to blame for the variance - if the young vote it could be close plus lots of tactical voting - if they don't then Johnson is probably home and dry.

Who's modeled electorate best ?

Every half dozen polls you get an outlier that can double the normal 3 percent margin of error.

I don't think it makes sense for companies to doctor data to suit their customer. Surely getting near the right final result is their aim

Edited by ricardo

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12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Yes its certainly not right when someone has to suffer but that was not the point of my post.

Was it a Dean Coney type deflection?ūüėÄ

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3 minutes ago, Herman said:

Was it a Dean Coney type deflection?ūüėÄ

Dean Coney couldn't even get a deflection at ColneyūüėČ

Edited by ricardo

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One real problem with political debate these days is that it's all done in 140 characters with very little actual analysis  being made apparent. 

The story of the child on the floor has been reduced to "Tory scum, cant be trusted with the NHS" and "Brexit is a distraction, let's get it done".  No one at all is talking about how structural issues might be addressed.

Thankfully in this case the kid was seen quickly and wasn't, it seems, at high risk.   

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