Top two

[lake district canary 4,531]

[quote user="Essjayess"][quote user="lake district canary"][quote user="Hoola Han Solo"]I think we can all agree the playoffs are definitely achievable[/quote]Yes - but to do that we have to keep winning - and that is part of my point - keep winning.  And if we keep winning to the end of the season you never know, 90-93 points might well be enough for second. Just looked at Huddersfield''s next few fixtures - Man City, cup distractionhome to Reading - not easyaway to Barnsley - def not easyaway to Wolves - not easyhome to Newcastle - far from easy followed by two away matches6 league games that could get them only 9 out of 18 points. Puts them on around 70 pointsReading''s next six fixtures - away to Huddersfield - draw would be good for usaway to brighton - draw would be goodhome to wolves - should be 3 pointshome to Newcastle - 1 pointaway to preston - 1-3 pointsaway to sheff wed - 1 point, maybeSo maybe 10 points out of 18Puts them on around 70 points Leeds next six fixtures - away to ipswich home to sheff wedaway to Brumaway at Fulhamhome to qprhome to brightonMaybe 9 points out of 18 there, no more than 12 imo. Puts them on around 70 points tooShef Wed next six fixtures -away to foresthome to brentfordaway to leedshome to norwichhome to burtonaway to villa Maybe 12 points there too (big game against us obviously)Puts them on around 67/68 points.

So - the concertina effect is easy to see. Four clubs all around the same amount of points - with eight games to go. As for Brighton''s next six fixtures - away at Barnsley - 1 pointhome to Reading - draw, hopefully.home to Newcastle - newcastle win? away at forest - draw?away at Rotherham - win? home to Derby - winSay 10 - 12 points.Puts them on 75/77 pointsNewcastle - the most interesting fixtures - home villahome bristolaway brightonaway huddersfieldaway readinghome fulhamThat set of fixtures could go either way, but if they have a bad run with the pressure of those difficult away games, they could drop back.Say they only got 9-10 points there, that would put them on 76/77 points.   Win our next six games - away to Burtonhome to Ipswichaway Shef Wedaway Bristol Cityhome Blackburn home Barnsley6 games that could - should - get us 15-16 out of 18, or even 18 out of 18.15 out of 18 puts us on 66 points. 18, obviously would put us on 69 points.With the gap closing as I predict - the concertina effect - with eight games to go, second club could be on 75-76 points. At that stage we could be as little as 6 or 7 points off second place. In that situation, week by week would be more and more interesting.  Any faltering by any club in those last eight games gives the advantage to the others.  With eight games left and if we win our matches, we could quite possibly be on the tails of second place by the last game or two of the season. Then it would be very interesting in the last two games.  90-93 points does it.

[/quote]Well Lakey, looking at that little list, you have used  the maybe route for all 6 clubs above us to grab between 9 to 12 points in all their next 6 games , yet somehow City could and should get 15 to 18 points. But be honest, do you REALLY think that is going to happen?[/quote]

I don''t know, but I believe it could happen.  That is the thing about sport - anything can happen - and we do appear to be building up a head of steam.  

[morty 0]

I don''t think you really believe it at all, its just belligerence.

[Barclay seats 4849 the 3rd 0]

Ffs LDC are you out of work or something ?

[Barbe bleu 826]

14 pages just to say where posters fall on the lakey/morty divide. Why not just create a thread where everyone states their preference and use others to discuss football?

I''ll summarise this nonsense (and I don''t suggest that the thread started as nonsense only that it descended into it):

No one knows the future.

Everyone agrees automatics are highly unlikely, possible but highly unlikely.

Playoffs are a realistic possibility as is just missing out.

Anyone actually disagree with the summary?

[morty 0]

[quote user="Barbe bleu"]14 pages just to say where posters fall on the lakey/morty divide. Why not just create a thread where everyone states their preference and use others to discuss football?

I''ll summarise this nonsense (and I don''t suggest that the thread started as nonsense only that it descended into it):

No one knows the future.

Everyone agrees automatics are highly unlikely, possible but highly unlikely.

Playoffs are a realistic possibility as is just missing out.

Anyone actually disagree with the summary?[/quote]As far as I can see, lots of people are posting their opinion? 

[Van wink 2,994]

LDC has him on a string.

Still arithmetically doable👍

[The gut 0]

If I was a betting man I would be more likely to bet on us going up in an automatic slot. Not because I think we will, but it makes for good odds.

I don''t think we will make the top 2 but for those claiming it would be a miracle or unprecedented you might want to compare our promotion in 1982. There are definite similarities, and a case could even be made that overturning results was even greater then because we climbed 10 places with 14 games to, not the 5 we need for Lakey to be proved correct.

I cannot provide a link or file path on this phone but if you''re interested check out the:-

2nd div league table 6/3/82 on statto.com

and

2nd div final league table 1982.

It was incredible at the time. Highly unlikely, but possible and achieved.

[morty 0]

You putting any money on it then gutty?

[Van wink 2,994]

Nice one Gut

[The gut 0]

Might do morty.

Possible but unlikely.

The clues were in my post.

That''s not to say I won''t.

Not likely to go out of my way to put on a bet.

But I could.

I''m that sort of guy.

[JF 694]

I haven''t bothered reading the thread as I''d imagine it''s 15 pages of pointless bickering! Anyway, I''d say I''ve got more chance of being the filling in a Kelly brook and Lucy Pinder sandwich than us finishing top 2 this season!

[Van wink 2,994]

😀

[Barbe bleu 826]

Everyone holds pretty much the same opinion. Highly unlikely to happen but possible.

Yes some posts, like guts, add something new but others could have just cut and pasted "I dont like ldc/morty, won''t ever agree with him and want everyone to know that"

[Greavsy 2,415]

Barbe bleu wrote the following post at 17/02/2017 6:56 PM:

Everyone holds pretty much the same opinion. Highly unlikely to happen but possible.

Yes some posts, like guts, add something new but others could have just cut and pasted "I dont like ldc/morty, won''t ever agree with him and want everyone to know that"

Totally agree with the first part as that is stating a fact.

The second part, I''m sure people just post on the forum and agree/disagree with the poster, not necessarily their points raised, because of who it is, as you say.

Sad but true.

[lake district canary 4,531]

[quote user="JF"]I haven''t bothered reading the thread as I''d imagine it''s 15 pages of pointless bickering! Anyway, I''d say I''ve got more chance of being the filling in a Kelly brook and Lucy Pinder sandwich than us finishing top 2 this season![/quote]There''s no bickering on this thread as far as I''m aware.  There''s some good discussion and people placing bets for good causes.  It may be a pipe dream, but until our possible total points is less than what would be required to get promotion in second place, it is still a possibility. It''s still a case of win our matches and we go up. Simples.

[Van wink 2,994]

People should always respond to the post and not the poster, it''s become a real problem on here which hopefully Pete has spotted.

[Greavsy 2,415]

lake district canary wrote the following post at 17/02/2017 7:02 PM:

It''s still a case of win our matches and we go up. Simples.

That''s not quite true lakey, we could win them all, and still not finish top 2 to go up.

[lake district canary 4,531]

[quote user="Greavsy"]lake district canary wrote the following post at 17/02/2017 7:02 PM:

It''s still a case of win our matches and we go up. Simples.

That''s not quite true lakey, we could win them all, and still not finish top 2 to go up.[/quote]I''ve checked the records for the last 20 years of this division and 93 points has always been enough to get promotion in second place.  Not saying we''ll do it, but if we do get 93 points, it would surely be enough.  Winning 14 in a row is very unlikely of course - but it''s not impossible. More likely in a very good run would be a couple of draws in amongst the wins. That would give us 89 points, I know, but in the records even 89 is enough for second place most years.

[Greavsy 2,415]

Can''t fault your optimism, not disputing the maths/ history, however ATM it''s not in our hands, we are still reliant on others, even if we do go one an unbeaten run of epic proportions.

I hope you''re right, then we get promoted, the pups get a few quid, and everyone''s a winner.

[Chesney Hawkes 0]

People have the right to freedom of speech.

[Herman 9,767]

[quote user="VanWink"]People should always respond to the post and not the poster, it''s become a real problem on here which hopefully Pete has spotted.[/quote][:|]

[morty 0]

😁

[Van wink 2,994]

😀😀

[wooster 134]

Whether there''s any chance of automatic promotion or not, I thought it was a bit a fun but nothing else.

The fact LDC was willing to take up the cudgels and argue the toss and back it up with a bet at his own cost is to his credit.  That others have fallen in and done likewise is equally creditable.

But let''s not make it about whether LDC is right or wrong because, at this stage, nobody knows (though they may have opinions that statistics may support). 

[morty 0]

He''s wrong.

[wooster 134]

Probably but we don''t need to (and can''t) establish that now anyway, except on the balance of probabilities.

[morty 0]

[quote user="wooster"]Probably but we don''t need to (and can''t) establish that now anyway, except on the balance of probabilities.[/quote]Regardless of who he is, or who I am, he''s wrong.Its not happening, and we all know it.

[wooster 134]

Maybe, but I don''t understand your need to make the point and rub his nose in it.

[morty 0]

[quote user="wooster"]Maybe, but I don''t understand your need to make the point and rub his nose in it.[/quote]I''m not rubbing anyone''s nose in anything.We''re discussing football opinions, nothing more. And reality about opinions.

[The gut 0]

Doesn''t read like a discussion of opinions.

There is only one opinion that is correct, which has been mentioned several times. It is possible.

Even if it doesn''t happen, the most likely outcome, and it is the most likely outcome, lakey is not wrong to hope for something that is possible. Any true fan would understand that.

It seems strange to me that so many people can get so opiniated about a hope or a prediction. In football it is meaningless.

In real time can a hope or prediction be a wrong? I don''t think it can.

An example springs to mind:-

When Middlesbrough were leading at the carra and half the ground left, they had no hope, obviously. Those of us that stayed I doubt had much more hope, and I reckon no one predicted that we would pull it back to 4-4. Had someone suggested it I would imagine they would have been laughed at. But we did. If we hadn''t have drawn would we have been wrong to stay on? I don''t think so.