We Will! / Will We? Be Back

[nutty nigel 7,536]

 

Here''s the damning article from last May : -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/championship/10826050/How-often-do-relegated-Premier-League-clubs-bounce-straight-back-from-the-Championship.html

 

So it was unlikely before a ball was kicked. But have our chances improved having played 24 games? I would say yes they have. We have easily out performed our 2005 post relegation season where we had 29 points and a -5 GD at this stage. So how does that measure up against the sides that have been successful? Here''s a little chart that shows the relegated teams from 2005 onwards, where they were after 24 games, and where they finished : -

 

Year	Team	Pts 24 gms	GD 24 gms	End of ssn
2009	Newcastle	51	25	1st
2008	Reading	49	29	4th
2006	Birmingham	49	20	2nd
2008	Birmingham	47	10	2nd
2009	WBA	45	26	2nd
2013	QPR	45	12	4thP
2011	West Ham	44	16	3rdP
2007	Watford	44	9	6th
2007	Charlton	39	6	11th
2006	WBA	37	15	4th
2014	Norwich	37	15
2013	Reading	36	2	7th
2010	Burnley	35	7	8th
2011	Blackpool	35	5	5th
2006	Sunderland	34	1	1st
2011	Birmingham	33	6	4th
2005	Palace	32	7	6th
2009	Middlesboro	32	5	11th
2013	Wigan	32	2	6th
2005	Southampton	31	4	12th
2007	Sheff Utd	31	0	9th
2012	Wolves	31	-2	23rd
2014	Cardiff	31	-3
2010	Portsmouth	30	-2	16th
2010	Hull	30	-4	11th
2012	Bolton	29	-2	7th
2012	Blackburn	29	-2	17th
2005	Norwich	29	-5	9th
2008	Derby	29	-6	18th
2014	Fulham	28	-6

 

We''re certainly not out of it are we? And I take great comfort from our good goal difference because to me that supports my view that we have lost far more points unluckily than we have gained that we didn''t really deserve. I expect that to even out in the second half of the season too.

 

Before a ball was kicked Cardiff were favourites for promotion at 12/5 (now 20/1) followed by Derby 13/5 (now 3/4) Wigan were 3/1 (now 100/1) Fulham were 3/1 (now 26/1) We came next at 10/3 (now 3/1). That''s interesting only because it appears the bookies agree with me that we have more chance now than before a ball was kicked.

 

I don''t think the picture is anywhere near as bleak as is being painted by so many who thought we''d walk this league. It was never going to be that way was it? On loan to the Champs? No chance. But we still have a fighting chance of getting back. Which is more than I can say for Cardiff and Fulham who of course changed their managers already. Looks like our management team are doing ok for the time being. So why not get fully behind them?

 

 

[morty 0]

Binner.

[nutty nigel 7,536]

[quote user="morty"]Binner.[/quote]

 

Happy Clapper is the correct terminology[H]

 

 

[whoareyou? 0]

In view of the current scores tonight, we are pretty much down to going for the play-off position.Unless we make some shrewd signings and plug our leaky defence, even that looks not very easy.

[Yellowbeagle 0]

I found it pretty interesting thanks for posting. Nothing decided yet but we''ve made it difficult for ourselves.

[lake district canary 4,531]

[quote user="nutty nigel"] So why not get fully behind them? [/quote]

I''ve just said something similar on another thread.  The time for a possible change was during the bad run - but results have improved - and the board have sent the same message as last year in not bowing to the pressure in November.   This time at least they''ve upgraded the coach to help him.............so, I agree its time to stop mithering about a different manager.   Adams will still get criticism from me, but hopefully constructive criticism from now on.  

[morty 0]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]

[quote user="morty"]Binner.[/quote]

 

Happy Clapper is the correct terminology[H]

 

 

[/quote][:D]

[city4eva 209]

Those stats suggest we wont get promoted

[nutty nigel 7,536]

[quote user="city4eva"]Those stats suggest we wont get promoted[/quote]

 

The Gaurdian article strongly suggested we wouldn''t get promoted. The stats I added suggest we have more chance than we did then. As do the bookies. I doubt you will find any serious factual articles that suggested we would get promoted. Unless you count some of the articles who post on here....

 

 

[YankeeCanary 0]

[quote user="lake district canary"][quote user="nutty nigel"] So why not get fully behind them? [/quote]


I''ve just said something similar on another thread.  The time for a possible change was during the bad run - but results have improved - and the board have sent the same message as last year in not bowing to the pressure in November.   This time at least they''ve upgraded the coach to help him.............so, I agree its time to stop mithering about a different manager.   Adams will still get criticism from me, but hopefully constructive criticism from now on.  



[/quote]

 

Well done Lakey. I''m pleased to see the difference in your tone of late.

What many posters need to remember is what the Norwich board decided when they appointed Neil Adams. There''s much we don''t know about other candidates and what actually happened with respect to getting an experienced manager in. Regardless, what we do know is that the decision to go with Neil Adams was made on the basis of having an old experienced hand at his side in Joe Royle. When Joe Royle opted to go to Everton at the 11th hour it left us in a lesser position than the board ( and Neil Adams ) thought we would be in. It''s reasonable to assume that the board sought to rectify this situation but it doesn''t always happen overnight if the right individual is to come in. Therefore, Adams had to carry on for a few months before the club got Phelan on board. This was unfortunate but now it''s up to those individuals to develop the right mindset in the players so that performance levels and consistency can improve. We shall see if they can do it. They deserve the season to give it a go and they will need all the support they can get to help them. Not some of the childishness that one has seen on here every time a result is the wrong one.   

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

His conclusion:  If you get relegated, get yourselves back up as quickly as humanly possible. It only gets harder.

[nutty nigel 7,536]

And my conclusion is we are making a better fist of doing so than we did on previous occasions and a better fist of doing so than Cardiff and Fulham who were favourites ahead of us.

 

 

[Iwans Big Toe 312]

And my conclusion is that only one team that has been relegated the previous season has been promoted at the first time of asking with less points than us at this stage of the season. There are also three teams that have accumulated more points than us at this point that failed to get promoted. I know that you''re trying to put a positive spin on it Nigel, but it''s not working dear fellow. What would also be interesting to find out is how many teams have got promoted since 2005 (regardless of what division they were playing in the year before) with less points than we have after 24 games of the season have passed. That might show slightly better odds of success, but I bet it''s not greatly improved. It seems, much like last season and many previous seasons, rather than take decisive and ruthless action the board have fiddled whilst Rome burns.

[Iwans Big Toe 312]

[quote user="Iwans Big Toe"]And my conclusion is that only one team that has been relegated the previous season has been promoted at the first time of asking with less points than us at this stage of the season. There are also three teams that have accumulated more points than us at this point that failed to get promoted. I know that you''re trying to put a positive spin on it Nigel, but it''s not working dear fellow. What would also be interesting to find out is how many teams have got promoted since 2005 (regardless of what division they were playing in the year before) with less points than we have after 24 games of the season have passed. That might show slightly better odds of success, but I bet it''s not greatly improved. It seems, much like last season and many previous seasons, rather than take decisive and ruthless action the board have fiddled whilst Rome burns.

[/quote]And of course I mean since 2005 (oh for an edit option!)

[nutty nigel 7,536]

But we have taken decisive action Toe. We have decided to keep our manager, sack the coach and appoint another. I take it you only view sacking the .manager as being decisive. Cardiff and Fulham both did that. They subsequently have no relegated teams who have gained promotion below them with less points. Maybe they were actually the ones fiddling while Rome burned.....

[ZLF 274]

From the 24 games point data only one team has been promoted with 37 or less points (The McCarthy relegated Keane promoted Sunderland) who went on a stunning unexpected 22 game run picking up 54 points from 66.  And only 5 of them have made the play offs with our points tally or less - none of who got promoted.   

 

As I posted elsewhere we too can average a (more likely and acheivable) 44 pts from the same games,  so it is definitely in our own hands if the manager and players improve.  We have to get behind that.     However this analysis confirms that the chances of automatic promotion are remote and the best we can hope for is the play offs,  and we would be bucking the trend to get promoted.  

 

Which I think supports the general conclusion of the forum - that we have left ourselves with too much to do.

 

 

To put sunderlands promotion as champions in perspective they lost just one game from the new year to season end having changed their squad with heavy investment in buys and loans early in the Jan window.  At 37 points the board recognised the potential for escape from the league and the manager was clear what needed to change on the pitch to succeed (Defence and strikers)  

 

Do our management team have that clarity?

[Indy 3,300]

Do you know what ......its not the manager its that we have too many players who have played in the premiership that they have an ego!

Most teams who go down also have this isseu and it takes a big manager with experience to grt them motivated.

Reading game summex it up for me....they could not be bothered to up the game. After 4 good performances they dropped the focus and energy. Top teams who are doing well have players who are driving to get to that top division. A bit like us under Lambert.

It might just take a few years to realign our players with a mix of youth and lower league talent who are motivated.

Adams & Phelan are the right combination in my book and next year will be a far better season. The hard thing to stomach this year will be watching the binners follow our model of 4 years ago and probably getting promoted this year.

For me we need to build for next season at this level. That would be a major change in our squad, selling a few of the egos and building hard working humble players.

I fully behind the manager and team but even the likes of Wes should have been shown the door after he showed his ego and contempt towards us the fans.

Maybe there are too many players who don''t care enough, thats what I see. As on paper this lot should be good enough to win this league at a canter.

I don''t see us getting enough points to reach the top 6.

[nutty nigel 7,536]

Zip, the point I was trying to make was that what we have achieved so far has given us more chance of promotion than we had before a ball was kicked. I think that and the bookies think that. It maybe that you thought we had a better chance than me or the bookies. Fair play to you but what did you base that optimism on?

[hogesar 9,674]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]Zip, the point I was trying to make was that what we have achieved so far has given us more chance of promotion than we had before a ball was kicked. I think that and the bookies think that. It maybe that you thought we had a better chance than me or the bookies. Fair play to you but what did you base that optimism on?[/quote]

To be fair some bookies had us as joint-favourites to get promoted after the transfer window closed! However I cant remember which one''s so if someone else could, it''d kinda help my point [:)]

[ZLF 274]

My optimism was based on starting the season with limited loss of squad from the previous season, enriched with new signings of quality and experience giving us a great squad of primarily experienced championship players,  relegation wage contracts and having no debt to worry about.   All positives compared to most relegated clubs in your list.

 

Supported by large parachute payments giving us an excellent budget compared to the rest of the league, with a greater imbalance towards relegated teams this season than the history you draw upon, and a comparison of the relative strengths of the other 23 clubs meant that we should have some confidence of success for this season.   Things like bookies odds persuade me not a jot - although the comments from others clubs management teams and pundits are worth a listen. 

 

I,  nor anyone else from memory,  disagreed with the clubs ambition of getting back at the first attempt or that it represented our best opportunity - I vaguely recall a thread showing if we dont bounce back this year the average stay in the league was 5/6 seasons?

 

I stated that finishing outside of the top 6 was unacceptable - I still do not think we will finish in an unacceptable position.   A play off position was par;   but really we should be pushing very hard for automatic promotion.    We are bang on target for par and we can 

 

However, since the start of the season we are now 10 points worse of the clubs stated aim of an auto spot - so I cant agree that we are better placed now than before the ball was kicked;   I do see the point you are making,  that we have points in the bag,  are well placed to mount a challenge, although we have 10+ lengths to close on the leaders.   For me though its only a positive compared to being further off the pace than we are. 

 

   

[nutty nigel 7,536]

That''s fair enough Zip and many shared your view. Just like the fans of Fulham and Cardiff this season, all 30 clubs relegated since 2005 and as we did when we were relegated in the 90s and last time. The reason for the thread and that article from last Maywas to show that such optimism has been historically misplaced. And that we are actually making a better fist of trying to get back than the other relegated clubs, we have in the past and the majority of clubs have historically. Even though that is below expectations yet again.

[Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB 1,024]

My personal opinion is that the most realistic expectation is a play off place. I have been saying for a while now that we are behind the target of averaging two points per game which is round about the amount you need to accrue to finish in the automatic promotion places. Our last five games have seen us average two points per game (3 wins a draw and a defeat), however we still find ourselves in 7th place. To close the gap of 11/12 points we are going to have to continue in the same vein as the last five games and hope that Bournemouth and Ippo suffer a slump. As part of closing the gap we are going to have to beat Bournemouth and Ippo when we play them.

None of the above is meant to be an attack on NCFC or Neil Adams, it is just how i see things and as ever I hope to be proved wrong......