Do we sustain or go for broke in January?

[Largey 0]

Should we be in a similar position come January, whereby we are in the play-off hunt, would you like to see us splash the cash or play it safe?

We all know full well that our current financial state is not pretty, however the board have implemented a plan tomrectify this as soon as they feasibly can. However would you like to see us bring in a player or two - perhaps on loan or permanently - to really push for a top six spot, risking our finances and putting the pressure on the team and management to deliver, or would you be happy to see us stay anonymous in the January transfer window, give it our best shot with the squad we currently have, and save a bit of money for a stronger push next season?

There is really a strong argument for and against a big push for a top six finish. Personally, I do not think our current squad is strong enough to make a play-off place their own...however I do not think we are far off and with the addition of a couple of top players, we could be there. But if we buy a couple of top players, and fail to reach our targets, we risk financial instability, something we simply cannot afford at this time.

Another argument is that if the money is not supplied to Lambert, would we risk losing him?

[First Wizard 0]

Fortune favours the brave I believe.

[Mister Chops 7]

McNally mentioned a seven year plan that the manager and board are aligned to.  If we overachieve, great, but I don''t expect them to tear up that plan for a short-term tilt at glory.  So no, I don''t think any extra money will be made available, and I think that''s the right decision from a business point of view.

[Mister Chops 7]

[quote user="First Wizard"]Fortune favours the brave I believe.[/quote]It''s easy to call for "bravery" when it''s not your money though, isn''t it?

[Beauseant 0]

McNally explained at the Ncisa AGM that the plan included two seasons in League One, so we''re already ahead of schedule. He also made it clear that the idea is to get back in good enough shape to be able to stay there. I don''t think that we could achieve that at present.

Clearly they wouldn''t turn the chance down if it arose but they won''t gamble the club''s future for a quick fix, so I would have. to agree with Chopsy

[Joanna Grey 0]

Groundhog day....

[Salopian 1]

I very much doubt that we shall spend in all directions, and I expect us to build slowly over a year or two with Bosmans, etc.

I hope that we can find something with which to sign Barnett, but I am not even sure that this will happen - expect us to try to extend the loan to May, but as others will have noted how well he has played they may put in bids!

There are two reasons why I doubt major spending:

1) Our squad is very small, so to improve our chances in the face of injuries we might have to buy two or three as well as Barnett, and the two or three who would make a difference will cost millions.

2) We are already nearly £25 million in debt, and caution will rule.

So I do not expect much - perhaps Barnett and perhaps one or two lower division players with potential and whose contracts run out in June.

[Mook 0]

Bolton just posted a loss of £34.5 million. Man Utd posted a loss of £83.6 million. Man City posted a loss of £92.6 million. Spurs just posted £7 million pound loss. Hull are bust. Portsmouth are bust. Liverpool nearly went into administration.Can I just ask - why on earth do people still believe that getting to the premiership is worth taking a massive risk for?

[PurpleCanary 5,562]

[quote user="Salopian"]

 

Our squad is very small, so to improve our chances in the face of injuries we might have to buy two or three as well as Barnett, and the two or three who would make a difference will cost millions.

 

[/quote]

 

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With respect Salopian, this is a myth increasingly put about - for understandable reasons - by Lambert. We actually have a noticeably bigger squad than Cardiff, for example.  And not a squad  loaded with untried youngsters. Packed full of first-team experienmce, either with us or previous clubs.

You only have to look at our 18 for Tuesday. Supposedly we were in an injury/suspension crisis. Yet of that 18 only two - Daley and Dawkin - have limited first-team-team experience. And they were only on the bench. The other five subs are all potential starters. We even had the luxury of being able to decide between Jackson and Chris Martin. And this despite having loaned out some players.

 

Whether we have enough real quality in some positions (particularly up front) is another matter, but the numbers are certainly there in the squad.

 

[TheGoogler 324]

Not necessarily sure I agree with your comparison of us to Cardiff, Purple. The reason Cardiff have the small squad size they do is because they work around a small group of quality players and augment it with loan signings if/when they have too. They either do that, or buy a larger squad without the quality individuals like Chopra, Bothroyd and Whittingham.

Us, on the other hand, have a small group with a superb attitude but not the quality.

[CDMullins 436]

This season the Championship is so wide open.

Playing for 3 promotion spaces this year.

If 2 big clubs like Newcastle, WBA come down.

We''ll be playing for one promotion spot next year.

worth a risk for me.

[Carlos Valderrama 0]

Fortune favours the brave.  I bet if we look through history there are thousands of brave sould who havent got a pot to piddle in.  For every thousand people who gamble there will probably be only a small number who experience success, the rest are left rueing their mistakes and bad luck.

Its an age old saying but I think in modern football slow and steady is definately the way to go forward.  And to those people who don''t reckon we have got any assets.  I personally think Korey Smith and Chris Martins stock is growing on a daily basis.  And finally the academy looks like it will do something...

[PurpleCanary 5,562]

[quote user="TheGoogler"]Not necessarily sure I agree with your comparison of us to Cardiff, Purple. The reason Cardiff have the small squad size they do is because they work around a small group of quality players and augment it with loan signings if/when they have too. They either do that, or buy a larger squad without the quality individuals like Chopra, Bothroyd and Whittingham. Us, on the other hand, have a small group with a superb attitude but not the quality.[/quote]

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The Googler, I agree with your assessment of Cardiff. Of course it''s a question how they have managed to afford such quality!

But the facts from Tuesday speak for themselves. According to Lambert we were down to the bare bones, but somehow we were still able to field a very experiened 18, and make bring on subs to make tactical changes. The group of genuine first-teamers from which he has to pick is actually large.

 

My own - non-watching - assessment is that we comfortably have a mid-table squad as it stands. With or without Barnett. The question, which comes back to the OP, is whether it is good enough to keep us in the top six. 

[a1canary 0]

Thankyou MOOK!!Wake up people. Fortune favours the brave? You can fit tired old adages around any situation you want but it doesn''t mean they''re true! As has been proved again and again, in English Football - debt, misery and legal enforcement favours the ''brave''! We have to ask ourselves if we want to break the bank to get in the premiership 5 years ahead of schedule. Would we have the resources to stay there? Almost certainly not. Ok we get the parachute money but what will a year in the prem do to our squad. Will we be able to keep it together? Will we be able to keep Lambert? Or will we have to start all over again? Right now, Lambert/McNally have us on a steady upward trajectory and i would rather stay steady on it than shoot up only to fall off it 12 months later. I think Lambert will have one wish in January that if he can fulfil he''ll be happy. Barnett. Extend the loan for the rest of the season with view to a permanent deal in the summer funded by some squad reshuffling. Then a striker in the summer, a right back and a right winger, and we go again.

[CRAZY LEGS 0]

try to add 1 maybe2 players better than what we have, building a squad takes time not 1 transfer window

[Standard 0]

Personally I think it depends on how the next few weeks go, I said in September that October and November were crucial months, the fixtures have been difficult week in week out and if we''re there or there abouts come December then why not go for it?

Surman coming back will be like a new signing anyway, I think with the way the Premier League is at the moment there could be the opportunity for some loans but that''s not overly the Lambert way, more likely would be a player or 2 from the lower leagues, Johnson from Wednesday, or Davies from Chesterfield spring to mind.

Curve ball transfer could be Ched coming back as the United fans aren''t keen, he''s been played out of position and isn''t in the starting XI (some games he''s not even in the 18)

[Carlos Valderrama 0]

I think if Glen Roeder hadn''t killed the loan system for us then a couple of likely lads from the prem would have really helped.

[Nexus_Canary 1,016]

Lynch me right now...but I actually dont want to go up anytime soon !! Of course the cash would be great but we are in no place to sustain a survival game in the Prem. Also if some of the Prem clubs get a good look at Lambo and the likes of Croft we will spend one season in the prem and come down a manager and few players short !So... I say sustain make the play offs and lose at Wembley or just miss the play offs, then mount a play off bid next year then have a stab at auto the year after :-p

[Salopian 1]

The numbers may be there, agreed, but does anyone really believe that more than about 15 are proven Championship level players?

I read complaints here regularly about regular players who are not more than borderline - names such as Holt, Lappin, Ruddy, Smith S, Fox, even Macnamee, Martin C, and Jackson.

Then there are others who would not expect to play except when there are several injuries - Gill, Johnson, Cody, Francomb, T-J, etc.

In fact when you have pencilled in the players who are generally agreed to be genuine championship players you have a spine - Ward,Barnett, Crofts, Drury, Surman, possibly Korey, Nelson, Martin R and Whitbread, you are scrapping around among the others merely to make a full side if there are any injuries.

If we are to "go for broke" in January we would need to buy not only Barnett, but others who can compete among the best at this level.

The question is not whether we can put out a team that could hold its own in the Championship, even with a few injuries, but new players who could make an impact and turn our prospects sufficiently to make our chances of promotion better and justify increasing the club debt to something like £30 million.

It has to be remembered that one or two other clubs in the top bunch who can lay their hands on money are already talking about strengthening in January. We shall need to be able to field up to fifteen players who are all able to make significant impact, rather than merely supporting the few admittedly very good players we have

[city-till-i-die 7]

Imo, i think there will be some money made avalible come January. Im 100% sure we have the right people in place not to over stretch and also just bring in a NAME for the sake of it...a couple of good loans wouldnt harm us at all..in Lambert i trust

[PurpleCanary 5,562]

[quote user="Salopian"]

 

The numbers may be there, agreed, but does anyone really believe that more than about 15 are proven Championship level players?

 

 I read complaints here regularly about regular players who are not more than borderline - names such as Holt, Lappin, Ruddy, Smith S, Fox, even Macnamee, Martin C, and Jackson. Then there are others who would not expect to play except when there are several injuries - Gill, Johnson, Cody, Francomb, T-J, etc. In fact when you have pencilled in the players who are generally agreed to be genuine championship players you have a spine - Ward,Barnett, Crofts, Drury, Surman, possibly Korey, Nelson, Martin R and Whitbread, you are scrapping around among the others merely to make a full side if there are any injuries. If we are to "go for broke" in January we would need to buy not only Barnett, but others who can compete among the best at this level. The question is not whether we can put out a team that could hold its own in the Championship, even with a few injuries, but new players who could make an impact and turn our prospects sufficiently to make our chances of promotion better and justify increasing the club debt to something like £30 million. It has to be remembered that one or two other clubs in the top bunch who can lay their hands on money are already talking about strengthening in January. We shall need to be able to field up to fifteen players who are all able to make significant impact, rather than merely supporting the few admittedly very good players we have[/quote]

 

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Salopian, if your assessment of 15 Championship-level players is accurate then that is actually an astonishingly high number for a club that was in League One last season! And it backs up my point that - despite what Lambert says - we do have a big squad of experienced players with -as it happens - a fair bit of quality as well.

 

As to the broader argument here, who knows what the accounts will show. Probably, as McNally has already hinted, that much of Lambert''s spending so far has been bankrolled not by money created by financial wizardry[;)] or by extra bank debt but by Smith and Jones and Foulger. And there is a question about whether such loans are actually loans or effectively gifts.

 

Since we are hardly in a position to take on extra real debt, then it probably comes down to whether S&J and F are willing to provide more fake debt to - for example - make Barnett a signing (assuming he wants to sign) and freshen up the forward line with a loan deal, to try to cement a place in the top six, which at the moment is fragile. The advantage of a loan deal being that it doesn''t involve a long-term cost.

 

Anything other than that (trying too hard for a top-two finish) looks not brave but foolhardy. And S&J providing another "loan" has the delicious advantage of enraging First Wizard even more, as there is a direct, scientifically-proved correlation between the amount they have given and the level of  Wiz''s hatred of them.[;)]

 

[Nexus_Canary 1,016]

IMO the only thing that would anoy me in Jan would be NOT making Barnetts position at Norwich permanant.

[Europe_93 11]

Consider yourself lynched!! Were you at Cardiff when we lost to Birmingham??

For me the question is whether if you push you can go up automatically. If the answer is yes, then it is worth a risk. If you simply gamble to make the play offs, where your clubs future can hinge on 1 refereeing decision then the answer has to be stick with steady progress. We won''t be too far off the play offs as we are.

As for the fake debt / loans. It just means if someone comes in and buys the club, these people reserve the right to take there money back. That decision will always hamper the sale though, because prospective buyers will prefer to invest in paying for a new transfer budget rather than paying of a previous transfer budget.

[PurpleCanary 5,562]

[quote user="Europe_93"]


 As for the fake debt / loans. It just means if someone comes in and buys the club, these people reserve the right to take there money back. That decision will always hamper the sale though, because prospective buyers will prefer to invest in paying for a new transfer budget rather than paying of a previous transfer budget.[/quote]

 

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Europe 93, it is quite true that these loans might well be called in in the event of a takeover. Equally there is a chance that Smith and Jones and Foulger would not do so. In other words, they have effectively written off that money.

 

But at the moment it is hard to see how any serious strengthening of our squad (such as being called for by some posters here) could be paid for apart from by such loans/gifts from directors.

 

[Nexus_Canary 1,016]

[quote user="Europe_93"]Consider yourself lynched!! Were you at Cardiff when we lost to Birmingham?? [/quote]Yah alright, loosing at Wembley aint cool :-/

[djc 0]

we should cull the deadwood, and release the below-par fringe players to free up some cash for reinvesting.

Dont go for broke, but to just stand still is not good enough. We should build on the momentum that the Club currently has, and if we dont achieve the play-offs this season we may suffer early next season with the "what if" scenerio or the "we should have gone for broke", or the good old prudence and ambition issue.......

[PurpleCanary 5,562]

[quote user="Mister Chops"]McNally mentioned a seven year plan that the manager and board are aligned to.  If we overachieve, great, but I don''t expect them to tear up that plan for a short-term tilt at glory.  So no, I don''t think any extra money will be made available, and I think that''s the right decision from a business point of view.


[/quote]

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Just to add to this, McNally gave as the main aim of the seven-year plan the eradication of our debt rather than getting to the Premier League, although he linked the two:

 

“As far as the debt is concerned we plan to be at zero debt by the end of the seven years,” he said. “If Paul and the guys reach the Premier before that, fine, we just bring the plans forward but I am hearing more about the Premier than I think is healthy. We have to fix the balance sheet. I know it’s the boring stuff but its essential and it will probably take the seven years.”

 

In terms of getting to the PL he was actually a bit more bullish, and arguably slightly contradictory (assuming he doesn''t mean going back to League One!):

 

“With Paul and the board we have a seven-year plan in place based on football expectations and finances. We’d given ourselves two years to get out of League One so we are already one year ahead of that. Realistically we have given ourselves three years in the Championship, so to go from 67th in the country at the start of the 2009 season to Premier League would be some achievement."

[Europe_93 11]

Totally agree that they may not call their loans in.  But they will use their position (existing investment) to influence the attractiveness of our club to future investors.  An interest free loan, is a smart move on their part (giving them power) and a safety net and is of great value and importance to the club (giving immediate funds for transfers).  But given the fickle nature of football we should as fans recognise what these people are giving and also gaining.  Personally, I have no issue with Delia & co, I think that they always act with the best of intentions for our club, sometimes they get it wrong, who doesn''t?  In addition, if I was lumping millions into the club, I would want a say in what was happening too.

I think they will dig into their pockets again if asked come the transfer window, but only if they think we can secure automatic.

[Europe_93 11]

Lambert has built a squad.  There will always be the weakest 10% in that squad, and also identified targets based on current team performance.  That is the nature of football.  I don''t think of any of our players now as deadwood, they all give what they can for the cause.

The set up is currently the most progressive I have seen at City in my 30 years of supporting them.  We have before been in a better position, but when you think where we have come from, i.e. 2 years ago.  I have a lot of confidence in the current decison makers, even though it is still relatively early days. 

The target should be for continuous improvement, rather than promotion. 

[Syteanric 1]

[quote user="Mook"]Bolton just posted a loss of £34.5 million. Man Utd posted a loss of £83.6 million. Man City posted a loss of £92.6 million. Spurs just posted £7 million pound loss. Hull are bust. Portsmouth are bust. Liverpool nearly went into administration.Can I just ask - why on earth do people still believe that getting to the premiership is worth taking a massive risk for?[/quote]what we need is a phoenix league.. leave the premiership to die and a nother league to be set up and put the nail in the coffin