KiwiScot 1,460 Posted April 27 Who will win. Interesting article here, but I suppose lots of people out there have systems to predict who wins. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/allan-lichtman-prediction-presidential-election 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,192 Posted April 27 “I’d love to tell you I developed my system by ruining my eyes in the archives, by deep contemplation, but if I were to say that, to quote the late great Richard Nixon, that would be wrong,” Lichtman recalls from a book-crowded office on the AU campus. “Like so many discoveries, it was kind of serendipitous.” Nixon had his successes, such as the EPA and OSHA, but it is difficult to ascribe the epitaph "great" to him. Regarding the 2024 election, if Trump gets the most votes then he will win. If he gets only a couple of million less votes than Biden, then he could still win. If he gets beaten, he'll claim that he won anyway Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cambridgeshire canary 6,795 Posted April 27 Can neither win? Please? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KiwiScot 1,460 Posted April 27 1 hour ago, cambridgeshire canary said: Can neither win? Please? I was going to have "none of the above", but that would have been most popular Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheRock 171 Posted April 29 (edited) It's still a long time from November, but I have been following it closely. Trump is up significantly in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, and the only state he is defending by less than 8% is North Carolina. If those states were red, that would put him on 268, needing only one of Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin or "Maine at-large". States to watch that may come into play, Biden also has eight significant states that are now only polling at between 5%-10% meaning they could well be in play given the margin of error. Trump is defending three, Florida and Texas, as well as North Carolina. https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/ I think the third party ballot access will damage Biden's pool of voters more than Trump. RFK, Cornel West and Jill Stein will appeal more to traditional Democratic voters than Republican voters. There are also many sideshow issues bubbling away in the background: Trump's legal battles, Biden's verbal gaffes, potential televised debates are apparently in abeyance, Trump still has to choose a VP, both of them are old, etc. Edited April 29 by TheRock Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheRock 171 Posted April 29 (edited) On 27/04/2024 at 12:40, KiwiScot said: Who will win. Interesting article here, but I suppose lots of people out there have systems to predict who wins. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/allan-lichtman-prediction-presidential-election An interesting read, a few of the "keys" are a bit overshadowed though and he may well be wrong. Interesting how defensive he is in the article over the 2000 election! "4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign." RFK is polling high, they shouldn't write him off. He will take traditional democratic voters away from Biden. "8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term." The latest unrest in the cities and university campuses regarding Israel/Gaza is a real thorn in Biden's side. Likewise with the southern border crisis. The former may subside before November, but may also get worse if Iran (or others) escalate a campaign against Israel or vice versa. "9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal." Hunter Biden is still in court with multiple charges. This damage's his old man's credibility and name by association. "10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs." The Afghanistan withdrawal can still be used as a political stick to beat The Biden Adminsitration with (although technically both administrations have responsibility for the failings). Likewise with some anti-war / isolationist Americans who are very dissatisfied with the USA's involvement in Ukraine. "12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. 13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. It is no secret that Biden's charisma is cognitve decline, whether or not the investigations into his health and competency say otherwise. This could hurt his favourability in televised debates; Trump is not a great orator either, but could exploit Biden's decline. Given that Biden may stand down during his second term, by choice or by health, there is a significant chance that Harris may well get the top job. This is why Trump must think wisely about who he chooses for VP, and how they would perform in a debate against one another, espeically given that Trump will also only have a maximum term of four years, not eight. Edited April 29 by TheRock Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,825 Posted April 29 10 minutes ago, TheRock said: An interesting read, a few of the "keys" are a bit overshadowed though and he may well be wrong. Interesting how defensive he is in the article over the 2000 election! "4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign." RFK is polling high, they shouldn't write him off. He will take traditional democratic voters away from Biden. "8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term." The latest unrest in the cities and university campuses regarding Israel/Gaza is a real thorn in Biden's side. Likewise with the southern border crisis. The former may subside before November, but may also get worse if Iran (or others) escalate a campaign against Israel or vice versa. "9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal." Hunter Biden is still in court with multiple charges. This damage's his old man's credibility and name by association. "10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs." The Afghanistan withdrawal can still be used as a political stick to beat The Biden Adminsitration with (although technically both administrations have responsibility for the failings). Likewise with some anti-war / isolationist Americans who are very dissatisfied with the USA's involvement in Ukraine. "12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. 13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. It is no secret that Biden's charisma is cognitve decline, whether or not the investigations into his health and competency say otherwise. This could hurt his favourability in televised debates; Trump is not a great orator either, but could exploit Biden's decline. Given that Biden may stand down during his second term, by choice or by health, there is a significant chance that Harris may well get the top job. This is why Trump must think wisely about who he chooses for VP, and how they would perform in a debate against one another, espeically given that Trump will also only have a maximum term of four years, not eight. I really think that given all Trump's woes, Israel and Ukraine plus their respective ages (frankly that grim reaper sniffing around both) that these uncontrollable variables will completely dominate things in the autumn. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Raptor 1,231 Posted April 30 Whoever wins I'd say theres a 58% chance they won't see out the term. They both look passed it and have aged so much recently. But then if Alan Brazil is somehow still alive who knows 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dylanisabaddog 4,983 Posted May 1 (edited) The key to this election is that 10% of Americans are still undecided. And of course the world is in a bit of a mess and there could still be a major event that changes everything. If everything stays as it is I would guess that most undecided people will eventually side with Biden which should tip it his way. @The Raptoris right to point out that there is a good chance that neither candidate will live for another 4 years. Voters may therefore look a little bit closer at running mates than usual. Edited May 1 by dylanisabaddog Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DraytonBoy 160 Posted May 1 Whatever the outcome, the fact that two old white men are vying once again to be the most powerful leader on the planet is a sad indictment of how pants politics in the US has become. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KiwiScot 1,460 Posted May 1 On 29/04/2024 at 16:03, TheRock said: An interesting read, a few of the "keys" are a bit overshadowed though and he may well be wrong. Interesting how defensive he is in the article over the 2000 election! "4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign." RFK is polling high, they shouldn't write him off. He will take traditional democratic voters away from Biden. "8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term." The latest unrest in the cities and university campuses regarding Israel/Gaza is a real thorn in Biden's side. Likewise with the southern border crisis. The former may subside before November, but may also get worse if Iran (or others) escalate a campaign against Israel or vice versa. "9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal." Hunter Biden is still in court with multiple charges. This damage's his old man's credibility and name by association. "10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs." The Afghanistan withdrawal can still be used as a political stick to beat The Biden Adminsitration with (although technically both administrations have responsibility for the failings). Likewise with some anti-war / isolationist Americans who are very dissatisfied with the USA's involvement in Ukraine. "12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. 13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. It is no secret that Biden's charisma is cognitve decline, whether or not the investigations into his health and competency say otherwise. This could hurt his favourability in televised debates; Trump is not a great orator either, but could exploit Biden's decline. Given that Biden may stand down during his second term, by choice or by health, there is a significant chance that Harris may well get the top job. This is why Trump must think wisely about who he chooses for VP, and how they would perform in a debate against one another, espeically given that Trump will also only have a maximum term of four years, not eight. It's been a long time since an ex-president trys to win again as well. Unpopular and scandal hit as he was as well. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
If wed kept Howie.. 210 Posted May 1 Trump is toast Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
If wed kept Howie.. 210 Posted May 1 other than his legal woes (which are mounting all the time).. he has f'all campaign funds.. and a completely inexperienced GOP management.. so GOP ground game is gonna be rubbish.. but a HUGE issue is who won't vote for him.. he polls really badly in the college educated suburban women key demographic.. which was why the GOP kept hitting the "only republicans can keep you safe from marauding mexican immigrants from invading your homes" vibe.. HOWEVER one thing college educated suburban women don't like is being told what they can do with their bodies.. Trump defeated by Karen.. very amusing.. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
littleyellowbirdie 2,593 Posted May 1 Trump's disciples seem to have bailed him out financially. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-25/donald-trump-6-4-billion-net-worth-makes-him-one-of-world-s-richest-people Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Well b back 3,279 Posted May 1 Throughout the western world I also think those leaders that didn’t call for a ceasefire in Gaza, could have serious problems. I have this sneaky feeling Israel may lose Biden the presidency. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
littleyellowbirdie 2,593 Posted May 1 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Well b back said: Throughout the western world I also think those leaders that didn’t call for a ceasefire in Gaza, could have serious problems. I have this sneaky feeling Israel may lose Biden the presidency. Just a little reminder that it was on Trump's watch that he gave Netanyahu the green light to move the Israeli capital to Jerusalem, arguably the most inflammatory thing any American president has ever done regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict. But also, the Biden administration has done plenty in terms of getting movement from the Israelis regarding a ceasefire. But it's true that there are probably many voters every bit as vacuous as you suggest. Edited May 1 by littleyellowbirdie Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
If wed kept Howie.. 210 Posted May 2 10 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said: Trump's disciples seem to have bailed him out financially. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-25/donald-trump-6-4-billion-net-worth-makes-him-one-of-world-s-richest-people that's a bit out of date... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
littleyellowbirdie 2,593 Posted May 2 (edited) 1 hour ago, If wed kept Howie.. said: that's a bit out of date... Are you joking? It's about a month ago? Sure it has dropped, but there's still plenty for him to cash out on. Edited May 2 by littleyellowbirdie Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
