Penalty Bias

[Taylor324 36]

Norwich win 1 penalty in 58 games and Southampton double that within 76 mins of one game with 2 very soft penalties - hmmmmmm?

[AJ 1,230]

Got to be in it to win it though; the past two seasons we were so poor in the final third we probably never got into a position to even win penalties. 

[Branston Pickle 3,690]

8 minutes ago, AJ said:

Got to be in it to win it though; the past two seasons we were so poor in the final third we probably never got into a position to even win penalties. 

That’s just utter garbage - there were a minimum of 6 cast iron pens we didn’t get last season…starting with the near leg-breaker on Max in our first home game last season, up to the handball v Burnley and beyond.   I can say with near-certainty that the second pen on Saturday would not have been given to us.

[Indy 3,322]

22 minutes ago, Branston Pickle said:

That’s just utter garbage - there were a minimum of 6 cast iron pens we didn’t get last season…starting with the near leg-breaker on Max in our first home game last season, up to the handball v Burnley and beyond.   I can say with near-certainty that the second pen on Saturday would not have been given to us.

I tend to agree, stars tell us that we don’t get many go for us!

[GenerationA47 761]

10 hours ago, Indy said:

I tend to agree, stars tell us that we don’t get many go for us!

Presumably stats?  

[littleyellowbirdie 2,597]

11 hours ago, Indy said:

I tend to agree, stars tell us that we don’t get many go for us!

 

4 minutes ago, GenerationA47 said:

Presumably stats?  

No. Astrology is where it's at for analysing football! The reason we don't get many penalties is that Mercury was in retrograde at the time the club was founded.

[Year of the tiger 59]

Don’t forget that we were in the PL in 94/95, 04/05, 11 to 14, 15/16 & 18/19. From Sept 94 to Jan 19 we had less penalties away in PL matches than Luton had in their first.

[Indy 3,322]

Yes stats! 

[Capt. Pants 4,283]

Perhaps we need to start understanding why though. If there is a bias against NCFC why is that? How do we change it?

Are we also getting more players sent off, as that would be another sign of bias against us.

 

[Kenny Foggo 1,116]

The last Saints penalty was an utter joke.

 

[NewNestCarrow 203]

Stats for the last 10 seasons, to end of May 2023

Games played = 478  (162 wins, so 34%)

Pens Awarded for NCFC = 52 (42%)

Pens Conceded by NCFC = 71

Those figures don't suggest much bias.

[Capt. Pants 4,283]

Last season's stats available here...

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/topErhalteneElfmeter/wettbewerb/GB1/plus/?saison_id=2022

Man Utd well down the list as are Liverpool.

Chumps here.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/topErhalteneElfmeter/wettbewerb/GB2/plus/?saison_id=2022

 

Edited August 15, 2023 by Capt. Pants

[BSEYELLOW 36]

20-21 when we were attacking teams, clever movement and spending a lot of time in the opposition box, we got 10 pens, the most in the league.

I would guess that teams that pass more and spend more time playing the ball around in the box will get more pens.  No surprise that we didnt get many last year on that basis, nor that we dont get many in the prem. 

Id bet that Southampton will get the most by a long way this year with the way Russ has them playing.  

[Capt. Pants 4,283]

3 minutes ago, BSEYELLOW said:

20-21 when we were attacking teams, clever movement and spending a lot of time in the opposition box, we got 10 pens, the most in the league.

I would guess that teams that pass more and spend more time playing the ball around in the box will get more pens.  No surprise that we didnt get many last year on that basis, nor that we dont get many in the prem. 

Id bet that Southampton will get the most by a long way this year with the way Russ has them playing.  

Exactly. We got as many pens in 20/21 as Man City got last season.

Fundamentally you won't get pens unless you get in the penalty area and if you do it time and time again you'll get some that you don't deserve. 

 

[Branston Pickle 3,690]

19 hours ago, NewNestCarrow said:

Stats for the last 10 seasons, to end of May 2023

Games played = 478  (162 wins, so 34%)

Pens Awarded for NCFC = 52 (42%)

Pens Conceded by NCFC = 71

Those figures don't suggest much bias.

I don’t quite see how is receiving 52 pens vs 71 conceded allows that conclusion - to have conceded 19 more is a pretty significant figure. The huge number of stonewall penalties not given to us last season was nothing short of astonishing - I don’t think it’s bias, more incompetence. I’m pretty sure we had the ‘apology letter’ 7-8 times.

[Corbs1 90]

I’m paranoid I admit, and full of grievances. Nevertheless I do feel Sarge hardly gets any his way, and an obviously honest player. 

[NewNestCarrow 203]

On 16/08/2023 at 08:44, Branston Pickle said:

I don’t quite see how is receiving 52 pens vs 71 conceded allows that conclusion - to have conceded 19 more is a pretty significant figure. The huge number of stonewall penalties not given to us last season was nothing short of astonishing - I don’t think it’s bias, more incompetence. I’m pretty sure we had the ‘apology letter’ 7-8 times.

A -19 balance would be significant if all other metrics were equal. But they are not.

Over the last ten seasons NCFC's Win/Loss numbers are in the negative, likewise  Goals For/Against.  It is illogical to suggest that the pen-count should be any different.